我国的投资率“高”吗？

关于我国固定资产投资(以下简称投资)和消费的比例问题一直是经济界关注的问题。虽然许多经济学者为提高我国的消费率提出了许多建议,政府部门也采取了许多政策措施控制投资,但从数字上看,我国的投资率与世界上绝大多数国家,特别是与发达国家相比一直是比较高,而消费率则比较低     

近两年物价波动并未改变供求关系的基本格局

2003年，我国居民消费价格小幅上扬，2004年出现了较大幅度的上涨，且呈现明显的结构性特征。然而物价波动并没有带来社会商品供求关系基本格局的实质性变化，为此，建议政府部门应进一步协调投资与消费的关系，并着力扩大消费需求，同时关注新涨价因素的影响，防止出现较大幅度的价格上涨。     

扩大居民消费问题观点综述

改革开放以来,我国经济取得了举世瞩目的较快增长,但是,投资和消费的增长比例关系却不尽如人意,消费增长大大慢于投资增长、消费需求对经济增长的贡献率不断下降成为当前经济运行中的重要问题。     

投资率本质上是由消费率决定的

在分析我国低消费、高储蓄、高投资态势的内在形成机理时,一些学者在讨论中往往简单地判定二者之间具有直接此消彼涨的关系,甚至将高投资率视为低消费率的原因,这是值得讨论的。从逻辑上说,对消费投资比例关系的分析应从消费储蓄比例开始,然后才是储蓄投资的关系,储蓄是消费与投资关系的中介。在宏观经济分析中,消费决策同时也就是储蓄决策,二者是等价的。而储蓄与投资虽然有着极其密切的本质性联系,即为投资提供资金来源,但二者的决策过程并不是同一的,其形成机理也完全不同。储蓄的最主要行为主体是居民,其动机主要是考虑当前消费与未来消…     

处理好投资与消费关系 促“长吉图”区域经济健康发展

投资与消费的比例关系,是国民经济结构调整与优化的重要内容。一般发达国家投资与消费比率约为1:4,吉林省近些年来投资与消费的比率接近于2:1,消费率偏低也是导致吉林乃至东北经济发展速度缓慢的原因之一。振兴东北经济,在"新常态"下,发展我国经济,处理好投资与消费关系十分必要。     

实现消费、投资和出口协调拉动经济增长财政政策研究

投资是经济增长的推动力,消费是扩大内需的关键,而出口是经济平稳增长的调节器。对我国投资、消费、出口不均衡发展的现状和形成原因进行了简要分析,为改善投资、消费、出口的比例关系,促进经济协调发展,从财政收入政策、财政支出政策和补贴政策三个方面进行简单的分析。     

投资与消费的经济增长效应比较——基于江苏省2004-2010年月度数据的再检验

投资与消费是地区经济增长的重要源动力。本文基于江苏省2004年至2010年的月度数据,利用单位根检验和协整检验技术对国内生产总值、固定资产投资总额及社会消费品零售总额三者之间的关系进行了实证检验。结论表明,虽然国内生产总值、固定资产投资总额及社会消费品零售总额均是非平稳的时间序列,但三者之间存在长期的均衡关系,且投资与消费的经济增长效应存在明显差异,消费的贡献弹性显著高于投资的贡献弹性。因此,政府在应对金融危机、促进经济增长的中,高度重视消费的增长效应,合理调整投资与消费的比例关系以促进江苏经济的健康平稳发展。     

关于投资与消费最优结构问题的探讨

在经济学理论中,钱纳里标准结构较早总结了投资与消费比例关系的经验规律。有关投资与消费最优结构理论研究的代表性成果主要有:索洛模型;菲尔普斯黄金律;拉姆齐模型;Abel等的AMSZ准则。一个新的思路是构建基于资本和劳动边际收益率的分析模型,用以研究投资与消费最优比例问题。现实中,经济更多地处于失衡状态,引申出来的一个问题是,投资与消费若处于一个合理区间即是可接受的。分析表明,中国目前的投资与消费结构偏离了合理区间,投资率的合理区间应在[35%,40%]左右,而居民消费率的合理区间应在[45%,55%]左右。     

消费、投资与经济增长关系研究——基于广东省1983-2008年的数据分析

本文利用Johansen协整检验模型和Granger因果关系检验,对广东省1983-2008年消费、投资与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究。分析结果表明:消费、投资和经济增长三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,消费的变动、经济增长的变动均会导致投资发生相应变动,而消费和投资的变化也同样一起影响着经济增长的变化。因此,在后危机时代,广东经济发展一方面要依靠不断扩大内需,另一方面要保持外需稳定增长,以克服世界金融危机带来的影响,并配合产业结构优化升级战略的顺利实施。     

政府公共服务职能“缺位”阻碍居民消费需求的扩大

投资和消费比例关系不协调是当前经济运行中的突出矛盾,从消费需求的组成来看,消费需求不足主要表现为居民消费需求偏弱。在影响居民消费增长的诸多因素中,政府在社会公共服务方面的职能"缺位"对居民消费的阻碍作用十分突出。     

A two‐sector Keynesian model of business cycles

In this paper, we examine the effect of sectoral interactions on business cycles in a simple Keynesian model. As a first step for introducing viewpoints of multiple sectors in the context of business cycles, we consider a dual economy in which there are only two kinds of goods: the consumption good and the investment good. By examining a two‐sector Keynesian model, we intend to take a look at some phenomena induced by interactions between the consumption good sector and the investment good sector, which cannot be observed in one‐sector models. We then find that the stability of equilibrium and the possibility of emergence of a periodic orbit depend on whether the Keynesian stability condition holds or not and that along periodic orbits (business cycles), the consumption good sector lags behind the investment good sector and that the volatility (measured by the ratio of the amplitude of cycles to the equilibrium value) of the investment sector is larger than that of the consumption good sector. Also, we supplement the analysis by performing numerical simulations.     

马克思社会再生产理论对我国宏观调控的启示

我国投资问题一直受到学术界的高度关注。通过运用马克思社会再生产理论,建立了投资率理论模型,系统地揭示了影响投资率大小的因素,以及这些因素对投资率的影响态势,并利用中国和美国的相关数据,比较分析了影响中美两国投资率高低的主要因素。最后结合实际,提出解决中国投资率过高的政策取向:降低转移不变资本占国民收入的比例及其增长速度,提高产业集中度以减少中间投入的比例,提高劳动者报酬占国民收入的比例,调整产业结构以降低生产资料生产部门的固定资产消耗的比例,以及转变政府职能。     

Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile

By studying the behavior of foreign currency borrowing, maturity, sales and the investment decisions of firms listed in the Chilean Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2001, this paper assesses whether in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s the depreciation of the local currency (Chilean peso) affected these firms’ real and financial decisions. At issue is the contrast between a negative net-worth effect and a potential expansionary competitiveness effect for the tradable sector. We find that there exists little evidence that devaluations cause a positive impact on investment and sales for firms with dollar denominated debt. The maturity structure of Chilean firms is mainly explained by the size of the companies. Large firms will have a debt structure biased to higher maturities. Analyzing dollar denominated debt composition the evidence shows that larger firms maintained a higher proportion of dollar denominated debt reflecting the development of the financial sector in Chile.     

经济均衡增长的必要条件与我国经济发展战略

经济均衡增长要求两大部类之间必须保持合理的比例关系、消费需求能够稳定增长。社会再生产过程中,两大部类之间的比例关系及投资率、储蓄率是由资本产出率、资本淘汰率、经济增长率三个因素所决定的,在技术、资源不制约经济发展的条件下,消费增长速度越快,投资率、储蓄率会越高,经济发展速度也越快。20世纪90年代中后期,中国经济增长速度放慢的最主要原因是体制改革对人们消费心理的影响,因此应从发展速度、发展方向、调控手段等方面规划我国经济未来发展的道路。     

从“储蓄约束”到“消费约束”——虚拟经济下的宏观投资决定

生产力的发展和虚拟经济的演化带来了人们消费内容的变化,引起了产品供给模式的改变,从而改变宏观经济中的投资决定模式。本文在回顾以往投资决定理论的基础上,从消费内容的视角解释虚拟经济以及在虚拟经济下投资决定方式的改变,认为虚拟经济超出实体经济的部分是生产力水平提高的结果,是未计入GDP的精神产品和精神消费品、物质消费品潜在供给能力的“包容器”,宏观投资已经从“储蓄约束型”向“消费约束型”转变。文章通过对我国1978-2003年的宏观数据的计量分析验证了这一结论。     

投资倾向变动对初次收入分配结构的调整机制研究

初次收入分配结构调整是指调整国民收入在各项目之间的分配比例,是国民经济体系中的重要内容。文章对投入产出模型进行扩展,深入透析投资倾向的变动对初次收入分配中各项目的影响,以及对初次收入分配结构的调整作用。研究表明,投资倾向对初次收入分配的影响与各产业的项目系数、生产直接消耗系数,以及国内收入总额密切相关;在现有的要素价格和投资结构情况下,提高投资倾向会使国民收入中劳动报酬、生产税净额的比例降低,会使固定资产折旧和营业盈余的比例提高。     

The impact of the composition of government spending on private consumption and investment: some impirical evidence

Government spending is disaggregated into investment and consumption components to investigate both theoretically and empirically whether public sector consumption and investment spending crowd out private sector expenditures in the same categories. The hypothesis is that the composition of public sector expenditures may also be important in influencing the composition of private expenditures, rather than just the total level of public expenditure. The empirical results do not indicate that public expenditures in these two categories significantly influence their private sector counterparts.     

Financial development and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the relationship between financial sector development and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. It uses panel data covering the period 1991-2004 from 18 countries in Africa. The main findings of the study are as follows: there is a negative relationship between interest rate and private investment, signaling large interest rate spreads in African economies. It is also found that both the credit to the private sector and the turnover ratio have significant relationships with private investment. However, the effect of turnover ratio on investment is insignificant. The insignificance of the stock market indicator reflects the low stage of stock market development in most of the African economies. In addition, it is found that the informal sector is still large and has positive effects on private investment and that institutional variables play a key role in determining the level of private investment in Africa.     

Does foreign investment benefit the exporting activities of Vietnamese firms?

Using firm-level data, this paper examines the effects of foreign investment on the exporting behaviour of domestic firms in the Vietnamese manufacturing and service sectors. Applying the Heckman selection model on panel data and following the Wooldridge approach, we find that investment by foreign firms has a significant positive effect on the decision of domestic firms in the same and upstream sectors to export. The proportion of exports of domestic firms declines through horizontal and forward linkages, but increases through backward linkages in the manufacturing sector. However, there is only weak evidence in support of export spillovers on domestic firms in the service sector. We also find that the presence of foreign firms has differing effects on the exporting activities of low- versus high-tech firms in the manufacturing sector.     

Determinants of Poland's Competitive Advantage in the Logistics Sector

Abstract

This paper discusses the transformation within the distribution and logistics sector in Poland. The privatization process and business growth, in conjunction with foreign direct investment, have created a very competitive environment. A modified version of Porter's determinants of the competitive advantage model is used to illustrate changes in this industry. Models are presented depicting business logistics in Poland before and after the transformation. Twelve firms operating in this sector were studied. Problems and opportunities are discussed as they relate to business logistics in Poland. Eventual membership in the European Union will further expand markets, as well as modernize Poland's infrastructure and business logistics systems.