Inequality and the Urban-rural Divide in China： Effects of Regressive Taxation

Using three comparable national representative household surveys for China in 1988, 1995 and 2002, the present paper reveals the regressivity and urban bias of China＇s direct tax and welfare system in this period It shows that a regressive taxation system and skewed allocation of subsidies increases the urban-rural income gap and enhances overall inequality. Modeling these relationships indicates that the relatively poorer rural population has a net tax liability, whereas those in the richer urban areas receive net subsidies. This pattern is common in China, although the extent of the bias varies. This skewed system of tax and welfare payments is a major cause of the persisting urban-rural income gap and contributes to the overall income inequality in China. The abolishment of the agriculture tax in 2006 has had a positive impact on rural people ＇s livelihoods.     

Regional Economic Growth and Spillover Effects： An Analysis of China＇s Pan Pearl River Delta Area

The Pan Pearl River Delta(PPRD) Regional Co-operation Framework Agreement was signed in 2004.It aims to bring prosperity through partnership among nine Chinese Mainland provinces and China ’s two special administrative regions.In this paper,we use a dynamic panel data model to examine the economic growth of the PPRD economies from 1985 to 2009.Our analysis confirms the existence of regional growth spillover effects in the PPRD area.Our results also show that economic growth spillover effects of non-PPRD regions on the PPRD regions are greater than those among the PPRD members themselves.These findings imply that economic integration between Chinese provinces has generated considerable spillover effects on regional growth.However, the anticipated benefits of the implementation of the PPRD agreement have not been realized thus far.Therefore,greater effort should be made to promote further economic integration among these members so that their local economies can benefit from the positive spillover effects.     

Regional Differences in China＇s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Potentials

This paper investigates the maximum energy efficiency level and the energy saving potentials in each region in China that can be practically attained at current economic and technological development levels. Most of the nation's energy efficient provinces are found along the coast of southeast China, while most of its least energy efficient provinces are in the hinterland that is rich in coal resources, and which depends heavily on coal consumption. China's low efficiency in energy resource allocation stems from its secondary industry, which is handicapped by the lowest energy efficiency and the most striking regional differentials. A comparison of the factors affecting the energy efficiency shows that the provinces being compared in this study differ tremendously in energy consumption structure, technological level of the secondary industry, and abundance of energy resources, and that the other factors are only adequate, rather than necessary, conditions. It is imperative to rectify the behaviors of provinces in balancing local energy allocation, to channel energy resources to energy efficient provinces, and to improve the national energy efficiency as a whole. When taking energy‐saving steps, provinces must take into full consideration both the national and local factors that affect energy efficiency. Furthermore, it is unrealistic for China to set a unified energy saving goal for different provinces. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)     

Effect of Migration on Children＇s Self-esteem in Rural China

China＇s rapid economic growth has been facilitated by its large volume of rural to urban migration. China ＇s projected future development, especially increasing urbanization, implies that such migration will further intensify. However, migration does not come without cost. There are concerns about the potential negative impacts of migration on children＇s care, education, and, in particular, the self-esteem of children left behind in villages where one or both parents have out-migrated to cities. In this paper, we employ unique survey data collected from Shaanxi Province, where more than 4700 ninth grade students from 36 rural junior high schools in five counties were surveyed in late 2011. The results show that having both parents migrate into cities significantly reduced children ＂s self-esteem. The effects are also gender sensitive. Girls that had a father or both parents who had out-migrated were inclined to have lower self-esteem than boys. Moreover, our study findings indicate that parental migration decreased children ＂s self-esteem more for individuals with initial low self-esteem.     

CO2 Emissions Embodied in China＇s Foreign Trade： An Investigation from the Perspective of Global Vertical Specialization

In light of the growth in vertically specialized in global trade, the present paper uses input output tables from the World Input-Output Database to construct an environmental multi regional input-output model to calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade during 1995-2009. The advantage of this model lies in its incorporation of the re exported CO2 emissions component embodied in trade and its ability to differentiate domestic sourced CO2 emissions from foreign-sourced CO2 emissions in trade. The results show that carbon emissions embodied in both China＇s exports and imports increased significantly during 1995-2009. One important reason for this is that the re-exported carbon emissions embodied in China＇s imported intermediate inputs increased substantially during this period. Our research reveals that accelerating the transformation of trade pattern and upgrading processing trade should be emphasized in the formulation of policy to prompt CO 2 emissions abatement in China.     

Retesting the Separability of China＇s Rural Households

This article retests the separability of China’s rural households in light of growing doubt about the sustainability of high economic growth in China.If a household’s production decisions are \"separable \"from the household’s consumption decisions,generally this suggests there is no surplus labor.Many scholars aver that China’s surplus rural labor has spurred rapid economic growth,but concerns have arisen as to whether China still has surplus labor available.We investigate this issue using rural household panel data from 1993 to 2009.The regression results confirm that households in rural China have progressed from being non-separable to separable.The estimation results for both the entire country and regions reject the separability hypothesis before 2004 but fail to reject the hypothesis after 2004(with the exception of the central region).These results suggest that China ’s surplus labor supply is dwindling,especially in the eastern and the western regions.The sustainability of China’s high economic growth is questionable in the absence of a large reservoir of surplus rural labor.     

China＇s Regional Disparity and Its Policy Responses

The fruits of China＇s rapid economic development over the 3 decades have not been distributed fairly across different regions. Using data from a sample of 815 Chinese listed firrns during 1998-2004, our error-correction investment model showes evidence of different financial constraints on firms＇ investment in different regions. We argue that China＇s regional development policies have contributed greatly to the regional inequalities. To control the rising inequality, China has shifted its focus from the coast to the interior regions. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to direct the economy, as market mechanisms now have afar greater influence on the economy than the government does. The people-centered approach of the current leadership has meant that substantial attention has been placed on regional development disparities in an attempt to build a ＂harmonious society. ＂ China needs further extensive reforms if all the measures for reducing regional disparity are to be effective.     

Rebalancing China＇s Economic Growth： Some Insights from Japan＇s Experience

One of the greatest challenges China faces is reshaping its heavily investment-driven mode of economic growth.By investigating how the rebalancing of Japan’s economic growth mode was realized in the 1970s,we indicate that it is essential in rebalancing to correct the distortions in factor cost(labor cost and capital cost) in a harmonious way.In addition,we refer to Japan’s experience to indicate that rebalancing of domestic growth does not necessarily lead to external rebalancing.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Growth of Local Firms？ The Case of China＇s Electrical and Electronics Industry

Does foreign direct investment(FDI) into developing countries affect the growth of local firms in host countries? Using a dataset of 38 sectors in China’s electrical and electronics industry,in this paper,we analyze whether FDI has a positive effect on local firms,with technology spillovers,added value and increasing total factor productivity,or a negative, market stealing,effect.Estimating the relationship between growth of local firms and investment of foreign firms,our results show that FDI is likely to have a negative impact on the growth of local firms in sectors with large disparities in technology and less experience in business.Therefore,local firms lacking in technology need to find markets with no competition from foreign firms or determine strategies to compensate technology disparities.     

Enhancing China＇s Innovation Performance： The Policy Choices

Transforming China into an innovation-driven economy has been one of the top priorities of the Chinese Government. This paper examines the policy choices involved in the extended national innovation performance framework for creating an open innovation system. Innovation capabilities, incentives and institutional frameworks are examined. The paper argues that China should continue to increase its investment in R ＆D and in education, and that there should also be an attempt to strengthen the incentive system at the macro, meso and micro levels. This strengthening may include reforms to： release the power of competition and guide resources towards innovative sectors; adopt appropriate human resource management, such as appraisal and remuneration systems; create effective policies for research funding management; and evaluate the efficiency of research to encourage the creativity of researchers, managers and employees. The paper also discusses the space for industrial policy in the 21st century.     

Anomaly in China＇s Dollar-RMB

Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar-RMB forwards and the Shanghai lnterbank Offered Rate from Oetober 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper explains the cause of this anomaly. Deviations in the forward market are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China＇s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy.     

R＆D Activities of Manufacturing Multinationals in China： Structure,Motivations and Regional Differences

This paper investigates the R＆D motivations of various multinationals operating in China, drawing on a large-scale, firm-level dataset of official Chinese statistics on science and technology activities. The present study shows that R＆D efforts in China have intensified for bothJbreign-owned and domestic firms, but less so for foreign-owned firms, perhaps because foreign-owned firms tend to operate on a foundation of technological capabilities developed within their home countries. Statistical analysis confirms that the major motivations for foreign R＆D in China are production-driven, not market-driven or technology-driven. Nevertheless, one sees significant variations in foreign R＆D strategies from region to region. Guangdong is characterized by production-driven R＆D. In Beijing, R＆D strategies tend to take a technology-driven approach, drawing on the clusters of scienl（fic institutions. In Shanghai, the R＆D efforts of multinationals tend to focus on support for market-driven R＆D,     

The Empirical Research on the Effects of FDI on Regional Employment in China

Because of the severity of unemployment, how to solve this problem has gradually become a topical subject in China from the perspectives of both academics and practitioners in recent years. The severity of employment can be observed not only on the constant soaring of some macroscopically total amounts such as the total unemployment and the rate of unemployment, but also on the extremely uneven distribution of regional employment. There are many reasons for the uneven distribution of regional employment, among which the enormous disparity in FDI＇s regional distribution in China is an essential influential factor. This article aims at explaining the interrelationship and function mechanism between 1＂]）I and the change of our country＇s regional employment, and putting forward the corresponding regional policy suggestions through the empirical research on the FDI＇s regional distribution and its employment effect.     

Japan＇s Bubble,the USA＇s Bubble and China＇s Bubble

This paper compares the three recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in asset prices: Japan in the late 1980s to the 1990s; the USA since the mid‐1990s; and China during the past decade. Although we have not yet seen a collapse of Chinese property prices, their increases so far are comparable to those in the other two episodes and a careful comparative study is warranted. The present paper first examines the behavior of asset prices, of property prices in particular, in the three cases, and highlights some similarities. The paper emphasizes the role played by extremely easy monetary policy in generating bubble‐like asset price behavior in the three cases. The reason for easy monetary policies is investigated. In the US case, the monetary authority was concerned about the risk of deflation in the early to mid‐2000s. The experiences of Japan and China are quite similar in that the monetary authorities of both countries were seriously concerned about the possible deflationary effects of exchange rate appreciation on the economy. The implications of such a finding for the future of Chinese macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

Ownership Restructuring, Marketization and Wealth Inequality in Urban China： 1995 and 2002

This paper proposes a property transformation perspective to examine the mechanisms of wealth accumulation and wealth inequality creation during China's post‐1978 transformation. It examines how enterprise ownership restructuring, marketization and state politics have resulted in greater wealth inequality between cadres and ordinary workers, between public sectors/organizations and private sectors/organizations. Mainly drawing on data from the Chinese Household Income Project conducted in 1995 and 2002, we find that the property transformation process has created greater wealth disparity among different occupational groups and among those working in different work organizations since the mid‐1990s. However, it is inconclusive whether non‐housing wealth or total household wealth are increasing at the same pace across different occupations and work organizations with the growing market penetration and the spread of privatization.     

Japanese Enterprises＇ Investment in China＇s Software Industry

I. Overall Conditions of Investment by Japanese Enterprises in China Starting from the 1980s, investment by Japanese enterprises in China has been growing continuously. In 2004, Japanese investors established 3454 firms in China, 6.15 percent more than in 2003. Contractual foreign investment amounted to US$9.162bn, 15.17 percent up from 2003, whereas the foreign investment actually used was US$5.452bn, up by 7.86 percent from 2003. In 2004, the number of newly established Japanese enterp…     

Foreign Value-added in China＇s Manufactured Exports： Implications for China＇s Trade Imbalance

Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China’s exports.Formally,the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using non-competitive input-output tables.Applying such a method to the Chinese case,however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports,which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates.This paper,by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports.This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China’s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008,compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports.It also finds that the sectors that experiencedfast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents.Since processing exports account for about half of Chinese exports,the prevailing trade statistics,which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports,has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances,especially between China and the USA.     

Development in China＇s Foreign Trade： 2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.     

China＇s Pattern of Growth： Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

I. Introduction China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 9.4 percent per annum since1978. As a result of this impressive growth, millions of people were lifted out of poverty. Economic reforms implemented over the last 25 years have certainly been instrumental in the remarkable growth performance, leading to higher productivity growth than in the pre- reform period. Nevertheless, it is widely agreed that China’s growth during this period has been resource intensive, drawing…