International productivity and factor price comparisons

Using OECD input–output tables for a diverse group of 33 countries in the year 2000 and estimates of each country's factor stocks, I compute factor payments for aggregate labor and capital with value-added data adjusted for self-employment by sector. Using a detailed technology matrix for the U.S., I compute factor-specific productivity measures in each country relative to the U.S., and show that these measures are strongly correlated with the pattern of wages and rental rates. I find that many low income countries with low labor productivity have relatively high capital productivity. I also find a distinctive pattern between factor productivity and factor payments depending on whether a country has a high or low wage-rental ratio compared to the U.S. I show these findings are consistent with the existence of sector-based differences in production technology and complementarities between factors.     

Evans,W. A. Advertising Today and Tomorrow. Great Britain: George Allen and Unwin, 1974

Abstract

This study reports on developments in the international advertising agency business during the 1970s. Findings suggest that U.S. agencies remain the dominant force in international advertising in contrast to the declining performance of U.S. industry in other sectors. Specifically, American agencies have found faster growth in their overseas markets leading to continually larger shares of their total billings; there has been a growing concentration in the international business of U.S. agencies and in the industry internationally; and, the international experience of U.S. agencies has led to a growing penetration of foreign markets, to growth in productivity, and to increasing domestic market power. Results of the study indicate however, that U.S. agencies may be facing increasing challenges from non-U.S. agencies in the future; notably from the West European, Japanese, and some developing countries.     

Domestic regulation,import penetration and firm-level productivity growth

This paper shows that the impact of import penetration on firms’ productivity growth depends on firms’ distance to the efficiency frontier and on product market regulation. Using firm-level data for a substantial number of OECD countries from the late 1990s to late 2000s, the analysis reveals nonlinear effects of both sectoral import penetration and de jure product market regulation measures, depending on firms’ positions along the global distribution of productivity. Close to the technology frontier, import penetration has a strongly positive effect on firm-level productivity growth, with less stringent domestic regulation enhancing this effect substantially. However, far from the frontier, the effect of import penetration on firm-level productivity growth is much smaller and often not significant. Its interaction with domestic regulation generally has no statistically significant effect either. The heterogeneous effects of import penetration and domestic product market regulation on firm-level productivity growth are consistent with a neo-Schumpeterian view of trade and regulation.     

Gains and Losses from Preferential Trade Agreements: Some Evidence from NAFTA

In this article we integrate two topics in international trade policy that have received (separately) a lot of attention: the effects of regional trade blocs, and export pessimism regarding poorer countries. The specific issue that allows us to bring together these questions is whether regional integration adversely affects non-members. We use quarterly data on bilateral trade flows for the period 1990 through 1997 to examine U.S. imports from its NAFTA partners as well as from non-NAFTA trade partners, and more specifically, those countries expected to be hurt by NAFTA. Two measures are used:

1. “import penetration” or imports from a particular source as a share of US GDP, and

2. the income elasticity of expenditure on imports from a particular source. Both “import penetration” and the income elasticity of expenditure affect the export earnings of U.S. trade partners, a matter of particular concern for developing countries.

The broadest pattern observed in the income-expenditure elasticities is clear evidence of increased penetration by non-oil developing countries. This is in marked contrast to the stable GDP share and expenditure elasticity for developed country imports. Regional results suggest that the Caribbean and the East Asian NICs were the only area groupings that experienced a reduction in income-expenditure elasticity. But overall on the basis of U.S. income-expenditure elasticities it appears that the first four years of NAFTA were associated with trade expansion rather than trade diversion.     

The Lag Structure of the Impact of Business Ownership on Economic Performance in OECD Countries

This paper investigates the impact of changes in the number of business owners on three measures of economic performance, viz. employment growth, GDP growth and labor productivity growth. Particular attention is devoted to the lag structure. The analysis is performed at the country level for 21 OECD countries. Our results confirm earlier evidence on three stages in the impact of entry on economic performance: an initial direct positive effect, followed by a negative effect due to exiting capacities and finally a stage of positive supply-side effects. The net effect is positive for employment and GDP growth. Changes in the number of business owners have no effect on labor productivity.      

Forecasting Internet Penetration in China: The Effect on E-Commerce

ABSTRACT

It can be seen that the Internet penetration rate in China has undergone a dramatic increase in the past three years. Beginning in June 2002 China became the third largest user of the Internet in the world following the U.S. and Japan. The Internet penetration rate in China has increased 61.0 percent from June 2001. This study provides a language comparison of Chinese versus non-English speaking Internet users by comparing Chinese Internet usage to: Spanish, Japanese, German, French, Scandinavian, Italian, Dutch, Korean and Portuguese. The four forecasting models to predict future Internet penetration in this study are: the Linear Trend Model, the Quadratic Trend Model, the Exponential Trend Model, and the S-Curve Trend Model. The study provides various forecasts of Internet penetration in China including dial-up and leased line Internet users. The forecasted results indicate that the Chinese speaking Internet user population will be the largest population by the end of year 2005 among all of the selected ten non-English speaking language Internet users' populations. The forecast of nearly 16 million leased line users reveals the necessity involved with choosing the correct leased line connection in China. These forecasts should be useful with respect to conducting electronic commerce with the China Internet market. The design of multi-language Web sites in order to conduct international Internet commerce is also analyzed.     

Interpreting cross-section and time-series tests of convergence: the case of labor productivity in manufacturing

This paper investigates whether a disaggregated measure, labor productivity in manufacturing, is converging across eight OECD countries during the period 1950–1998 using both cross-section and time series tests of convergence. The evidence indicates convergence using either test for the full sample, but tests over subperiods suggest that the dynamics of the underlying series change from economies in transition in the early years to economies in balanced, but parallel, growth paths in the later period. The results confirm that the appropriate test for convergence depends on the underlying structure of the data.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Competition and Industry Performance

This paper investigates the productivity effects of inward and outward foreign direct investment using industry‐ and country‐level data for 17 OECD countries over the period 1973 to 2001. Controlling for national and international knowledge spillovers we argue that the effects of FDI work through direct compositional effects as well as changing competition in the host country. Our results show that there are, on average, productivity benefits from inward FDI, although we can identify a number of countries which, on aggregate, do not appear to benefit in terms of productivity. On the other hand, a country's stock of outward FDI is, on average, negatively related to productivity. However, again there is substantial heterogeneity in the effect across OECD countries.     

The factor content of Chinese trade

This article demonstrates that the growth of China's exports in recent years is consistent with the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) prediction of the factor content of trade based on international differences in factor endowments, after adjusting for substantial differences in factor-specific productivity. A comparison of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development input–output data in the year 2000 shows that China's labor productivity relative to the United States is the lowest in a sample of 33 diverse countries, although China's capital is more productive than US capital. This in turn demonstrates the importance of a factor-specific rather than factor-neutral productivity adjustment common in much of the HOV literature. The use of value-added data to measure factor usage helps to correct for unobserved differences in factor qualities and differences in productivity across sectors, as is demonstrated for China. China's low average labor productivity reflects the structure of the Chinese economy where most employment is still in the inefficient agriculture and service sectors, with only 11% of employment in the more modern export-oriented manufacturing sector. Due to a trade surplus, China exports both labor and capital but Leamer's (The Journal of Political Economy 1980;88: 495–503) test for trade-revealed factor abundance confirms that China is labor abundant even after substantial factor-specific productivity adjustments.     

信息通信技术对服务业“成本病”的影响研究——基于OECD国家生产率的增长核算分析

本文采用增长核算方法对1980-2003年部分OECD国家的服务业和制造业劳动生产率增长进行了贡献率分析。研究结果表明,信息通信技术(ICT)资本加深对服务业劳动生产率增长的贡献率远高于对制造业的贡献率,服务业劳动生产率增长落后于制造业的主要根源在于全要素生产率。ICT不能完全根治"成本病",但可以在一定程度上缓解服务业"成本病"。     

Exports and FDI motivations: Empirical evidence from U.S. foreign subsidiaries

Foreign direct investments (FDI) are supposed to bring into the host countries indirect benefits, usually referred as productivity spillover effects. However, an emerging literature analyses the effect with regard to the export performance of local firms finding inconclusive results. This literature is affected by two main shortcomings: firstly, the role played by FDI motivations is largely disregarded and, secondly, it is difficult to generalise results valid across countries. For these reasons, the aim of the paper is that of testing the effects of U.S. FDI on export intensity at the sectoral level in 16 OECD countries over the period 1990–2001 by bringing together international economics and international business perspective on FDI motivations. Through our data, we disentangle asset seeking and asset exploiting FDI motivations distinguishing also the channels through which the effect is going to occur. The findings show that asset exploiting motivations, and in particular market seeking FDI, are those that affect export intensity to a greater extent.     

Financial development,sectoral reallocation,and volatility: International evidence

This paper studies how financial development affects the volatility of GDP growth through the channel of sectoral reallocation. For 28 OECD countries over the period 1970–2007, we construct a benchmark industrial portfolio that minimizes the economy's long-term volatility for a given level of long-term labor productivity growth. We find that financial development substantially increases the speed with which the observed industrial composition of output converges toward the benchmark. To overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit sectoral sensitivities to financial deepening and exogenous liberalization events.     

Productivity and Wages

The United States’ output per capita is approximately 30 percent higher than in the developed European countries and Japan, and its productivity growth is among the highest in the world. Much of this record has been due to an environment that fosters growth in human and physical capital and innovation. Maintaining and enhancing this environment is key to the growth we need for our future. Flexibility in the labor force, fostering entrepreneurship, and high levels of education are major contributors to U.S. productivity increases, which have been tracked closely by growth of compensation. Future productivity growth will depend largely on incentives for investment in physical and human capital by appropriate tax policies, continuing a free flow of trade and foreign investment, and making sure that young Americans have the skills necessary to compete in the global economy. JEL Classification J2, J24     

On the similarity of country endowments

We study the production side of the Heckscher-Ohlin model empirically. The evidence we present suggests that the endowments of countries around the world are too dissimilar for all countries to be able to produce the same set of goods. In contrast, the endowments of the rich OECD countries are sufficiently similar, so that these countries do not have to specialize in different subsets of goods. Our findings have implications for a variety of issues ranging from the trade and wages debate to economic development. Our analysis relies on the lens condition of Deardorff [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 167-175] that compares country endowments with sectoral factor inputs. We mainly focus on the production factors capital and labor. We test the robustness of the results with different data sets and with corrections for international differences in productivity and human capital. We confirm the similarity of the developed OECD countries with skilled and unskilled labor data. We also investigate in detail the implications of measurement error and sectoral aggregation.     

Patterns of trade restrictiveness in online platforms: A first look

This paper develops a digital platform restrictiveness index for 64 countries based on ECIPE’s Digital Trade Estimates database and the Digital Trade Restrictiveness Index. We identify specific restrictions that affect online platforms with a focus on online search, e-commerce and social media. The results show that both OECD and non-OECD countries show high levels of trade restrictions on online platforms. Moreover, some of the most restricted countries are characterised by large markets, signifying that a substantial part of the global economy gravitates towards restricting online platforms. Based on the platform restrictiveness index, we perform an econometric analysis showing that trade restrictions for online platforms are significantly associated with lower contributions of the ICT sector to productivity growth in the entire economy. The results suggest that reducing restrictions on online platforms can increase the ICT’s contribution to overall productivity growth towards a level seen before the global financial crisis. Sectors that would benefit the most are those that make wider use of online platforms and the Internet, including information services, business services and financial services.     

Movies and the Mystery of the Missing Trade: Is Hollywood Good for U.S. Exporters?

Research has shown that consumers have a preference for goods based on the origin of production. This is important because it suggests that, in some cases, even lowering trade barriers may not significantly increase trade flows. In particular, flows may be lower than are predicted by trade theories such as Heckscher-Ohlin. Despite evidence that home consumption bias exists in many countries, it is only recently that research has begun to examine the sources of this bias.

This article fills a gap in the literature by testing a model that addresses the source of this consumption bias. The paper's model incorporates consumers' exposure to foreign products and culture through media imports and tourist visits as factors affecting consumers' preferences for foreign products. Using panel data from 19 countries, the article's results support the hypothesis that lagged exports of U.S. movies have a positive impact on other U.S. exports. Some evidence is also found of a positive effect of tourist visits on U.S. exports.

Since U.S. media exports may generate demand for other U.S. goods and services, opening up foreign media markets should receive a higher priority in U.S. trade negotiations. Another interesting implication of the paper is that overall U.S. export losses resulting from media piracy may be lower than previously calculated, as the consumption of pirated media products may increase demand for other U.S. exports.     

Understanding Personal Web Usage in Organizations

Personal web usage, that is, non-work-related use of the Internet for personal purposes during work hours, is a pervasive behavior observed in the daily work environment. U.S. companies have implemented several countermeasures to cope with personal Web usage, but those measures have not successfully mitigated this behavior. Considering the significance of personal Web usage, we need to understand why personal Web usage is not alleviated in current organizations. The goal of this study is to present an empirical investigation of why employees continue personal Web usage based on an extended theory of planned behavior. We are particularly interested in how people's perceptions of moral dimensions contribute to personal Web usage, recognizing that our work environment becomes more Web-embedded. We conducted a field survey of 426 U.S. business professionals and analyzed the data by using partial least squares. As a result, we demonstrate that an individual's attitude, subjective norm, denial of responsibility, self-efficacy, personal computer availability, seclusion of office, and workload are significant factors affecting personal Web usage. Interestingly, current organizational preventive efforts (e.g., Web-based activity monitoring and filtering systems and policies) and moral obligation are not as significant as we originally expected. Key implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Explaining National Differences in the Size and Industry Distribution Employment

What forces determine national differences in the size and industry distribution of employment? We stress the role of the economic policy environment as determined by business taxes, employment security laws, credit market regulations, the national pension system, wage-setting institutions and the size of the public sector. We characterize these aspects of the economic environment in Sweden prior to 1990–91 and compare them to the situation in other European countries and the United States. Our characterization and international comparisons show that Swedish policies and institutions strongly disfavored less capital-intensive firms, smaller firms, entry by new firms, and individual and family ownership of business.

We also compile evidence that these forces affect outcomes. Taking the U.S. industry distribution as a benchmark that reflects a comparatively neutral set of policies and institutions, Sweden's employment distribution in the mid-1980s is sharply tilted away from low-wage industries and industries with greater employment shares for smaller firms and establishments. Compared to other European countries, Sweden has an unusually high share of employment in large firms. Furthermore, the Swedish rate of self- employment in the 1970s and 1980s is the lowest among all OECD countries.

The institutional and policy factors emphasized by our study differ greatly across countries. This fact suggests that our approach can be fruitfully applied to other studies of national differences in industry and size structures and their evolution over time. As an example, the tax reform wave of the 1980s – which largely evened out cross-country differences in corporate taxation among OECD countries – offers some basis for projecting a movement towards greater similarity among wealthy countries in the size and industry distribution of employment.

     

What is the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy,and how might policy affect it?

The answer to the question “What will future potential growth be?” is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, the performance of the labor market) with what is known (the evolution of the age structure of the population). It does so in two ways. First, this paper uses the historical experience of potential labor productivity growth, labor force participation, and weekly hours to simulate a range of outcomes for future potential growth—finding a 90% confidence interval that ranges from 0.7% annual growth to 3.0% annual growth, centered by construction around the Congressional Budget Office projection of 1.8% annual growth. Second, the paper examines a range of specific economic policies that the Trump Administration might pursue in terms of their impact on economic growth both in the short run and over the next decade—finding that an outer bound of these policies could be plus or minus 0.5 percentage point on the annual growth rate, but that these policies would most likely subtract a small amount from growth.     

Why Have U.S. Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?

This article analyzes the issue of price cyclicality from a Post Keynesian perspective. It shows that there are two key factors at the center of the mechanism for the sudden U.S. transition from counter‐cyclical to a‐cyclical price movement in the early 1980s. First, the cost pass‐through policy has been changed to ensure that the cyclical changes of input prices and/or labor productivity are absorbed more thoroughly and are thus reflected more frequently in profit markups than occurred prior to 1984. This relatively increased adaptability of the profit markups in the aggregate sense between the pricing periods cushions the direct effect of cyclical changes in the cost base on price cyclicality. Second, a structural change in the U.S. labor productivity's cyclical property has generated cost‐base stability during the post‐1984 period. Declines in hiring and firing costs and cutbacks in social security benefits have led the labor discipline effect to dominate the labor hoarding effect. This has allowed labor productivity to increase as the unemployment rate rises; thus, the cost base cyclicality has weakened, and prices have become less cyclical since 1984.