THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF BANNING SMOKING IN WISCONSIN'S BARS AND RESTAURANTS

There is much debate as to whether or not the passage of no‐smoking laws has adverse consequences for businesses in the hospitality industry. In 2010, the state of Wisconsin implemented a law that banned smoking in all public places. Using a panel of county‐level employment data, I examine the relationship between the implementation of smoking bans in Wisconsin and the subsequent changes in bar and restaurant employment. Using variation in the timing of bans that occurred as a result of four counties that implemented local bans prior to the July 2010 statewide ban, I conduct a difference‐in‐differences analysis to measure the average treatment effect of implementing a smoking ban in Wisconsin. I find that restaurant employment is not affected and that bar employment is significantly reduced as a result of the smoking ban. I also find that counties with higher levels of smoking prevalence see greater reductions in bar employment when a smoking ban is enacted. Back‐of‐the‐envelope estimates suggest that even though there are employment losses, the benefits of the smoking ban outweigh the costs. (JEL L510, D780)     

The impact of the Self‐Sufficiency Project on the employment behaviour of former welfare recipients

Abstract The Self‐Sufficiency Project (SSP) was a Canadian randomized trial in which the program group had 12 months to find full‐time employment in order to qualify for a subsidy that roughly doubled their pre‐tax earnings for the next three years. We find evidence of significant impacts of SSP on non‐employment and employment durations. For the treated group, simulation results show an impact on the employment rate at 52 months after random assignment in the range of 7 to 11 percentage points; this is approximately a 25% increase in the employment rate compared with having no treatment in place.     

THE IMPACT OF ANTISMOKING POLICIES IN KOREA ON QUIT SUCCESS AND SMOKING INTENTIONS

In 2001 and 2002, the Korean government dramatically increased cigarette taxes, anti‐smoking advertisements, and smoking prohibitions as part of an anti‐smoking campaign. This paper examines the impacts of these policy changes by modeling quit success and smoking intentions pre‐ and post‐policy and attributing model differences to anti‐smoking policies. Model results provide evidence that national anti‐smoking policies increased both quitting success and intention to quit. However, the impacts of these policies are uneven throughout Korean society. Females and those who exercise for health maintenance experienced higher quit success. Heavy smokers and high frequency alcohol drinkers stated they are less likely to quit smoking post‐policy. One impact of national anti‐smoking policies is reduced provincial differences among Koreans in both quit success and intention to quit. Future anti‐smoking policies should address the different needs of these groups. (JEL D12, I19)     

Factors Affecting Cigarette Demand

This paper addresses the impact of smoking restrictions in workplaces and educational establishments, cigarette price measures and various psychosocial indicators on cigarette demand, controlling for demographic and socio-economic factors. The data used for the analysis are collected via questionnaire that was administered in personal-in home interviews. A two-part model of cigarette demand [Cragg, J. G. “Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods,” Econometrica, 39, 5, 1971, pp. 829–44.] is estimated. According to the estimations, cigarette price measures do not influence cigarette demand. On the contrary, smoking restrictions in workplaces and educational establishments and most of the psychosocial variables are found to affect cigarette demand considerably.     

TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND ROBUST SIGN RESTRICTIONS IN A EURO AREA SVAR*

We use a model‐based identification strategy to estimate the impact of technology shocks on hours worked and employment in the euro area. The sign restrictions applied in the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and are robust to parameter uncertainty. The results are in line with the conventional Real Business Cycle (RBC) interpretation that hours worked rise as a result of a positive technology shock. By comparing the sign restrictions method to the long‐run restriction approach of Galí (Quaterly Journal of Economics (1992) 709–38) , we show that the results do not depend on the stochastic specification of the hours worked series or the data sample but only on the identification scheme.     

EMPLOYMENT VERIFICATION MANDATES AND THE LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES OF LIKELY UNAUTHORIZED AND NATIVE WORKERS

As recent efforts to reform immigration policy at the federal level have failed, states have started to take immigration matters into their own hands and researchers have been paying closer attention to state dynamics surrounding immigration policy. Yet, to this date, there is not a clear understanding of the consequences of enforcing E‐Verify on likely unauthorized immigrants or on natives across the United States. This study aims to fill in that gap by analyzing the impact that the enactment of various types of E‐Verify mandates may have on the employment and wages of these groups. We find that the enactment of employment verification mandates reduces the employment likelihood of likely unauthorized workers. Additionally, it raises the hourly wages of likely unauthorized women. None of these impacts are observed among a similarly skilled sample of naturalized Hispanic immigrants. Finally, the enactment of E‐Verify mandates appears to raise the employment likelihood of alike non‐Hispanic natives, while raising the hourly wage of native‐born male employees, alluding to the potential substitutability of unauthorized immigrants and non‐Hispanic natives. (JEL J2, J3, J6)     

THE IMPACT OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

This article examines the impact of the minimum wage on employment, focusing on women in their 20s and 30s, who are known to be typical low‐wage workers in Japan. The results, based on a panel estimation, suggest that the minimum wage has a measurable impact on employment; the workers whose current wage is below the revised minimum wage are about 20–30 percentage points less likely to be employed in the following year than comparable low‐wage workers who are not affected by the revision of the minimum wage. The estimation results are sensitive to the choice of the control group. (JEL J23, J38, J88)     

A WARM EMBRACE OR THE COLD SHOULDER? WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES IN ETHNIC ENCLAVES

This paper examines how immigrant enclaves influence labor market outcomes. We examine the effect of variation in ethnic concentration across counties and county subdivisions on both immigrant earnings and employment using the non‐public use, 1‐in‐6 sample of the 2000 U.S. Census. We find that there is heterogeneity in enclave impacts by ethnic group and skill composition of the enclave. While some groups tend to suffer from lower wages and employment propensities when residing in areas with larger ethnic concentrations, others have higher wages and improved employment opportunities in enclaves. (JEL J61, J15, R23)     

MODELING THE INCIDENCE OF SELF‐EMPLOYMENT: INDIVIDUAL AND EMPLOYMENT TYPE HETEROGENEITY

Modeling the incidence of self‐employment has traditionally proved problematic. Although the supply‐side characteristics of the self‐employed are well documented, we argue that the literature has neglected demand‐side aspects. We explore the determinants of self‐employment using the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances. We present results from an econometric framework that allows us to model, separately and simultaneously, the influences of individual heterogeneity (i.e., supply‐side factors) and employment type heterogeneity (i.e., demand‐side factors) on the probability of self‐employment. Our findings suggest that while individual characteristics are important determinants of self‐employment, there are factors specific to the type of employment that influence self‐employment. (JEL J23, J33, C25, C10)     

Employment Status Persistence in the Japanese Labour Market

The growth of non‐standard employment has become a cause for concern for policy‐makers trying to boost output and keep unemployment low while also maintaining job security. This paper estimates a dynamic unobserved effects model using the Keio Household Panel Survey, an individual‐level panel data set, to investigate the effects on future employment opportunities of employment in Japan's non‐standard employment and regular employment sectors. I find strong evidence of persistence within the labour market, suggesting that past employment experience has a significant impact on future labour market outcomes.     

Smoking laws and their differential effects on restaurants, bars, and taverns

This article examines the effect of restrictive smoking laws on restaurants, bars, and taverns. Supporters of these laws often argue that they do not harm firms and may even raise profits. Opponents argue that owners cater to customer smoking preferences, and laws mandating specific policies will negatively impact profits. This article provides a framework for examining the distribution of effects that smoking laws exert on businesses, and demonstrates that changes in total sales or tax revenues do not provide a meaningful understanding of the economic implications because smoking laws exert different effects on different firms. The distribution of these effects is examined using data from a nationwide survey of 1,300 restaurant, bar, and tavern owners. While some subsets of firms are predicted to suffer revenue declines, bars are predicted to be more than twice as likely to experience losses as restaurants. An important implication is that the increasing level of governmental restrictions on smoking in the hospitality sector could gradually impact the types of service available to the public.     

Effects of Local,State, and Federal Minimum Wage on Employment Growth among Teenagers in the Restaurant Industry

Over the last 20 years, local municipalities have been implementing minimum wage ordinances at an accelerated rate. These local changes, along with state and federal minimum wage increases, are included in the examination of the impact of minimum wage hikes on employment growth of teenagers in the food services and drinking places subsector. While most minimum wage research focuses on employment levels, recent contributions highlight the importance of analyzing employment growth. Following this trend, this study focuses on teenagers within the restaurant industry to test for the impact of minimum wages on inexperienced workers. Using a distributed-lag model, the results show that an increase in a minimum wage reduces employment growth for teenagers within this subsector. The effects of minimum wages within this demographic were most strongly felt in the first three years following an increase in minimum wage. Specifically, the results show that a 10% increase in the minimum wage decreases the employment growth rate by approximately 2.27% over a period of three years.

     

The impact of Sunday shopping on employment and hours of work in the retail industry: Evidence from Canada

Between 1980 and 1998 every Canadian province passed legislation that in some way relaxed restrictions on Sunday shopping. This study exploits the variation in deregulation dates between provinces to identify how retail employers adjust employment and hours of work when deciding to open on Sundays. A major complication of this analysis is to first determine for which provinces the deregulation dates are useful indicators of increases in Sunday store openings. This paper uses a unique trading-day regression approach to identify these provinces and then uses aggregate data from the selected provinces to estimate a simple dynamic labour demand model that allows employment and hours to be imperfect substitutes in production. The results suggest that retailers’ needs for Sunday labour were disproportionately satisfied through increases in employment levels. Comparison of the estimates at three levels of the retail industry suggests that the employment and hours gains were larger among general merchandise stores than among more specialized retail establishments and relatively modest at the aggregate retail industry level. In addition, despite evidence of an immediate shortfall in the employment level below the long-run optimal level, the results suggest that firms were unable to compensate by temporarily increasing the hours of their existing employees.     

THE WAGE IMPACT OF TEACHERS UNIONS: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature examining the impact of teachers unions on education is very large and diverse. We meta‐analyze the literature on the wage impacts of teachers unions to try to draw out general findings, the importance of empirical model specification, and samples. A key finding of this study is that the average wage impact estimated by the included papers is modest, around 2%–4.5%. Our findings also suggest that the quality of an empirical strategy significantly affects the size of the estimated impact. We find that teachers union wage impacts have varied over time. The largest impacts appear to be following the rapid expansion of teacher unionism in the 1970s. Finally, we gain new insight into the goals of teachers unions by using the increased statistical power of meta‐analytic techniques to show that unions increase the wages of new teachers and not just senior teachers. (JEL J51, I21, I30)     

THE IMPACT OF INSURANCE SUBSIDIES ON SELF‐EMPLOYMENT: DO STATE NON‐GROUP HEALTH INSURANCE REGULATIONS MATTER?

This paper tests whether the effect of tax‐based subsidies for self‐employed health insurance on the level of self‐employment differs with the type of non‐group insurance regulatory regime at the state level. Using a panel of tax returns from 1999 to 2004, we estimate fixed effects instrumental variable regressions for the probability of being self‐employed, allowing the effect of the after‐tax price of self‐employed health insurance to differ by regulatory regime. Our results suggest that states with community rating and guaranteed issue regulations had significantly smaller increases in the fraction of taxpayers reporting some amount of self‐employment income as a result of a decrease in the after‐tax price of self‐employed health insurance. However, there is suggestive evidence that heavily regulated states experienced a larger increase in exclusive self‐employment, particularly among older taxpayers. (JEL J24, H24, I18)     

China's export growth and the China safeguard: threats to the world trading system?

Abstract Is there evidence from China's pre‐WTO accession period that newly imposed U.S. or EU import restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third markets? We examine this question by drawing on a newly constructed data set of U.S. and EU product‐level import restrictions on Chinese trade imposed between 1992 and 2001, and we estimate their impact on Chinese exports to alternative markets. We find no systematic evidence that the import restrictions imposed during this period resulted in Chinese exports surging to third markets. To the contrary, there is weak evidence of a chilling effect on China's exports to third markets.     

DOES ADVERTISING MATTER? ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON SMOKING AMONG YOUTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of cigarette advertising on smoking among youth in developing countries. Using micro‐level data from 19 developing countries, we examine the structural relationship between smoking behavior and advertising exposure and the reduced‐form relationship between smoking and advertising bans. Instrumental variables are used to address the endogeneity of advertising exposure. Country‐specific unobserved heterogeneity is further reduced by controlling for measures of antismoking sentiment and cigarette prices. After accounting for the endogeneity of advertising, we find that the positive correlation between smoking and advertising exposure in our sample can be largely explained by the disproportionately higher propensity of smokers to observe advertising rather than a direct causal effect of advertising on smoking. (JEL I12, I18)     

An Empirical Analysis of Post‐Merger Organizational Integration

We study post‐merger organizational integration using linked employer–employee data. Integration is implemented by reassigning a small number of high‐skilled workers, especially in R&D and management. Workforce mixing is concentrated to establishments set up after merger, rather than to previously existing establishments. Worker turnover is high after merger, but new hiring yields stable total employment. Target employees have higher turnover and reassignment, particularly if the target firm is small relative to the acquiring firm. These findings might suggest that integration is costly, but can be achieved by focusing on key employees. Alternatively, the reassignment of a few key employees is sufficient for achieving integration.     

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE MINIMUM WAGE: PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FROM CANADIAN PROVINCES

Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime‐aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity. (JEL J30, J71, J23)     

HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)