信息不对称下信贷市场的惜贷与挤出效应

通过收集和处理借贷平台日常运行中形成的真实数据,本文发现信息不对称条件下信贷市场逆向选择会导致市场萎缩的两类效应;其一为"惜贷"效应:随着信息不对称程度的加深,借贷双方最终达成的合约额度降低和交易匹配时间延长,市场的有效供给萎缩;其二为"挤出"效应:随着信息不对称程度的恶化,借贷双方合约的利率将会升高、期限缩短,市场的有效需求萎缩。通过完善人工智能、大数据和区块链等金融科技并加强银企关系,可以降低信息不对称,进而缓解逆向选择带来的上述不利影响。     

社会对账与信息沟通——如何根治会计信息失真的顽症

信息不对称 信息不对称是指交易双方对交易品所拥有的信息数量不相等.在经济生活中,信息即资讯被看成是可以购买又有成本的商品.由于各种原因,经济决策人获得的信息往往是不充分的,也是非对称的.信息不完全会使经济均衡的性质发生一定程度的扭曲,影响到市场均衡的状态和经济效率. 信息的非对称性可以从两个角度加以划分:一是非对称发生的时间.不对称性可能发生在当事人签约之前,也可能发生在当事人签约之后,分别称为事前不对称和事后不对称.信息的事前不对称导致代理人的逆向选择行为,事后不对称则导致道德风险.二是非对称信息的内容.不对称信息可能指当事人所拥有的信息,也可能指当事人的行动,不可观测信息将导致当事人隐藏信息,不可观测行动则将导致当事人隐藏行动.     

最优存款保险设计——国际经验与理论分析

本文结合国际经验和理论分析,探讨最优存款保险机制设计。首先,本文通过德国、巴西、俄罗斯等国典型经验,分析建立激励相容存款保险制度以及金融安全网成员协调合作的经验和教训。其次,在此基础上,本文针对信息不对称导致的问题,设计了成本最小化的激励相容存款保险合约。本文证明给定适当补贴,满足"参与约束",并同时规避"逆向选择"和"道德风险"的存款保险合约存在且不唯一,并且这些合约是针对不同类型银行自我选择的动态合约组合。最后,本文对建立中国存款保险制度提出政策建议。     

浅析金融风险与金融制度的关系

一、金融风险产生的根源金融风险根源于非完全信息所导致的金融交易环境的不确定性,以及人的有限理性和机会主义行为倾向。在现代市场经济中,代理人的道德风险导致金融合约是不完全的。同时,金融交易中拥有私人信息一方的机会主义行为,导致了逆向选择的后果。就个体而言,金融交     

不对称信息与银行逆向选择

现实的商业银行经营管理经验说明,由于信息的不对称,导致银行作逆向选择,是银行风险增大的主要原因.所谓信息的不对称性,是指交易的一方拥有某一(些)信息,而交易的另一方不拥有相应的信息,或者说是交易的一方对另一方不充分了解,因而影响其作出准确决策,一般情况下,发生在当事人签约之前的事前不对称信息,当事人隐藏知识信息的可能性比较大,而发生在当事人签约之后的不对称信息,当事人隐藏行动信息的可能性比较大,它们将使得当事人作出逆向选择,使得另一方当事人可能遭受损失.     

逆向选择下的我国证券市场分析

逆向选择是指在市场信息不对称和不完全的条件下,买卖双方博弈过程会导致市场资源配置的无效率。而在金融市场,特别是证券市场,逆向选择的情况非常普遍,这种行为会降低证券市场资本配置的效率,造成资本市场的流动不畅。本文通过分析我国证券市场逆向选择行为,提出了解决逆向市场的机制设计策略,以减少逆向选择给证券市场带来的效率损失。     

逆向选择、混同和社会保险的再分配效应

逆向选择是保险市场中常见的市场失灵现象,通常认为通过社会保险可以减少逆向选择的现象。通过对保险市场的逆向选择分析发现,政府合理的混同可以在存在逆向选择的情况下实现效率,但政府的偏离Wilson均衡的强制混同可能产生不必要的成本和福利损失,进而影响保险市场的效率;政府对于混同的选择会对个人造成重要的福利影响,可以说社会保险是一个有效的收入再分配手段。     

浅析NDF套利及四合一金融产品的风险管理

一、NDF套利与四合一金融衍生产品组合的业务流程与交易原理分析(一)人民币NDF及NDF套利金融衍生产品组合NDF是指无本金交割远期外汇(Non-DeliverableForward),人民币NDF市场是离岸市场。其做法是交易双方在签订买卖契约时,不需交付资金凭证合约,到期     

互联网消费金融中的逆向选择和道德风险研究——基于信号传递和重复博弈的视角

采用博弈论的方法——信号传递模型和无限重复博弈模型,对互联网消费金融中由于信贷双方信息不对称而产生的逆向选择和道德风险问题进行了理论分析。结合互联网消费金融的自身特点,引入信用共享机制,分析得出了不同参数变化对博弈均衡的影响。结果表明当单次贷款的利率越低,单次信贷额度越低,低收入消费者的伪装成本越高和对消费者违约的信用惩罚越重时,可以有效地防止逆向选择的发生,使信用贷款流入高收入群体;而随着信息共享程度越深,消费金融服务的频次越高,由消费者主观意愿导致的道德风险就会越低,互联网消费金融活动开展就越顺利。     

浅析金融风险与金融制度的关系

一、金融风险产生的根源 金融风险根源于非完全信息所导致的金融交易环境的不确定性,以及人的有限理性和机会主义行为倾向.在现代市场经济中,代理人的道德风险导致金融合约是不完全的.同时,金融交易中拥有私人信息一方的机会主义行为,导致了逆向选择的后果.就个体而言,金融交易所导致的损失和收益可能会相互抵消,但个体的信息不完全及机会主义行为倾向往往引起金融资产价格的过度波动,导致难于形成稳定的市场预期.这一方面降低了风险厌恶者的交易动机,另一方面却增大了风险爱好者的交易欲望,从而使市场表现为越来越强烈的投机倾向,金融经常是不稳定的甚至处于动荡之中.     

引入国债期货合约能否发挥现货市场稳定效应?——基于中国金融周期的研究视角

我国国债期货市场能否发挥稳定现货市场功能,金融周期风险是否会改变国债期货市场对现货市场波动的影响,是投资者实施风险管理和监管部门构建市场稳定机制的重要依据。本文通过信息传递机制和交易者行为两个维度探析国债期货市场发挥稳定功能的微观机理,分析金融周期风险对衍生工具稳定功能的影响,解析引入国债期货合约能否缓解金融周期波动对国债市场冲击,同时关注我国国债期货交易机制改进与现券波动关系。研究发现:(1)我国国债期货市场已实现抑制现货市场波动的功能,金融周期风险会引发现货价格波动,国债期货市场能够降低金融周期的波动冲击;(2)改善现货市场深度和套保交易是国债期货市场发挥稳定功能的微观路径,国债期货市场增进国债预期交易量流动性、减弱非预期交易量干扰,金融周期低波动区间套保交易稳定作用受到抑制;(3)国债期货投机交易和波动溢出效应助长现货市场波动,正负期现基差对国债波动影响具有非对称特征。     

Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank’s exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of option contracts on financial firms’ equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, their combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world.     

Outsourcing with long term contracts: capital structure and product market competition effects

This paper analyzes how capital structure and product market competition affect the firms’ strategic choice between outsourcing with long term contracts and outsourcing to the spot market. When outsourcing to the spot market firms are exposed to price uncertainty, whereas a long term contract allows them to set in advance the outsourcing price. We show that, to the extent that leverage and uncertainty can lead to financial distress costs in bad states of nature, firms may use long term contracts as a risk management device to hedge input price uncertainty. With a monopoly in the final product market, the outsourcing decision involves a trade-off between a positive convexity effect of input price uncertainty under the spot regime and the option to avoid financial distress costs under the long term contract regime. Moreover, product market competition among buyers can lead to an increase in financial distress costs not only for firms outsourcing to the spot market but also for firms outsourcing with a long term contract. We examine the monopolist’s outsourcing decision and derive the equilibrium for an oligopoly, and show that the equilibrium depends on the magnitude of these costs and on the level of efficiency of the supplier.     

Cross-market informed trading in the CDS and option markets

This paper analyzes how informed traders balance leverage and liquidity in making cross-market trading decisions. Our findings are three-fold. Using daily data on the actively traded North American CDX Investment Grade and High Yield indexes from 2010 to 2017, first, we find robust evidence that, when the credit default swap (CDS) market is illiquid, informed traders do not hesitate to exploit their information advantage in the option market, and this manifests mainly for negative credit news. Second, we find that informed trading occurs predominantly in the option market for low-rated firms due to high adverse selection risk in the CDS market. Third, there is strong evidence of informed trading taking place in the CDS market for financial firms and we argue that this is due to the interdealer network through which CDS dealers obtain private information about other financial firms and their privileged position as market makers to be able to disguise their informed trades as ordinary market-making activities. Finally, we propose re-thinking market efficiency and how to advance it in a direction which does not privilege a small circle of financiers or create monopoly while keeping the markets liquid and tranquil at all times.     

现货市场与衍生品市场跨市监管研究

随着国内金融衍生品市场的逐渐兴起，发生在现货市场和衍生品市场的操纵更加难以发现，这种操纵对市场的危害性更大。本文通过研究现货和衍生品跨市场价格操纵现象，并借鉴成熟市场的监管措施，从法律法规、合约设计、日常监管、跨市场信息共享和联合监管、跨市场危机处理程序等角度提出了建议，希望能对国内跨市场监管提供借鉴。     

基于行为金融的银行间债券交易行为研究

本章主要从数量的角度分析了银行间债券市场的主体交易行为。由于传统金融市场理论与银行间市场的实际情况存在不符的情况,作者试图用行为经济学理论来解释银行间市场的主体交易行为。由于数据方面的原因,本实证分析仅局限于银行间现券交易。实证结果显示,银行间市场不同主体之间的行为存在显著的差异性。最后,论文引入行为因子,对传统债券定价模型进行修正。     

An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China

The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners.     

Price Clustering in the U.S. Dollar/Taiwan Dollar Swap Market

Price clustering in financial markets is pervasive. Using transaction‐level data from the world's largest financial market, this study is the first to examine price clustering behavior in the foreign exchange swap market. In addition to existing hypotheses, we investigate new determinants of price clustering including the expected return, contract liquidity, and trader's identity. The results support both negotiation and price resolution hypotheses. We find a positive effect from the level of expected return on price clustering. Markets with greater liquidity experience reduced clustering. Transactions involving domestic banks have less clustering suggesting an information advantage over foreign banks.     

Assessing the Risk Potential of Premium Payment Options in Participating Life Insurance Contracts

Most life insurance contracts embed the right to stop premium payments during the term of the contract (paid-up option). Thereby, the contract is not terminated but continues with reduced benefits and often provides the right to resume premium payments later, thus increasing the previously reduced benefits (resumption option). In our analysis, we start with a basic contract with two standard options, namely, an interest rate guarantee and annual surplus participation. Next, in addition to the features of the basic contract, a paid-up and resumption option is included in the framework. The valuation process is not based on assumptions about a particular policyholders' exercise strategy but instead assesses the risk potential from the insurer's viewpoint by providing an upper bound for any possible exercise behavior. This approach provides important information to the insurer about the potential hazard of offering the paid-up and resumption option. Further, the approach allows an analysis of the impact of guaranteed interest rate, annual surplus participation, and investment volatility on the values of the premium payment options.     

论金融消费者保护的“横向适度”与“纵向适度”

加强对金融消费者的保护是对国际金融危机的主要反思结论,怛同时又要警惕保护过度和保护失度对金融机构、金融消费者自身、金融行业所带来的负面影响。在进行金融消费者保护的具体制度设计时必须把握好保护的“度”,做到横向适度与纵向适度。金融消费者保护的横向适度就是要实现全面一般保护与特殊群体特殊保护之间的平衡,实行金融消费者保护的差异化,区别对待不同金融消费者。金融消费者保护的纵向适度就是要寻求加强金融消费者保护与推动金融创新之间的平衡,治理金融排斥与控制低端金融市场无序发展之间的平衡。