Viewer Preference Segmentation and Viewing Choice Models for Network Television

Abstract

Individual viewing decisions have a direct impact on the media planning of television advertisers and, consequently, on the revenues of the major television networks. This paper represents an attempt to better understand these decisions. We use Nielsen people meter data to build a perceptual space for programs. That space is then used to develop models explaining viewers' decision to watch television and their choice of programming. The program-choice model is a clusterwise logit model which searches for segments with similar viewing preferences. A segment-level logit model is then used to model the on-off decision. These models can be used by advertisers and advertising agencies to understand the viewing audience better, and thus to help guide their advertising media placement decisions. The models can also help television networks design programs and program schedules that are more attractive to viewers (and thus advertisers).     

The Advertising–price Relationship: Theory and Evidence

The relationship between advertising and price is important because the welfare effect of advertising depends upon the price effect of advertising. We attempt to provide a better understanding of the theoretical relationship between advertising and price. We establish theoretical conditions sufficient for advertising to raise prices. This will occur, for example, when firms play a supermodular game – a structure that considers the type of advertising (i.e., persuasive, image creating, or informative) and the effect that advertising has on a firm’s demand and costs. We also compare results from two simple duopoly models, one with horizontal and the other with vertical differentiation, and find that only the model with horizontal differentiation is supermodular for the forms of advertising that are thought to raise price (e.g., persuasive advertising). In consideration of these theoretical issues, we then develop an empirical model to determine whether advertising raises prices in the US brewing and cigarette industries.     

A New Promotion Mix Appropriation Model

This paper deals with the promotion budget and some popular appropriation models found in the standard marketing textbooks. All of these models are simplistic and state that relatively more money is spent on advertising and relatively less money is spent on personal selling in the promotion mix for consumer goods. They also state that the converse is true for industrial goods. A sample of 25 companies, all market leaders, was chosen with the objective of establishing how much they spend on promotion as a percentage of total sales. The objective was also to establish the percentage of total sales spent on each promotion mix element. The results were compared with the popular promotion mix appropriation models in the textbooks. In some cases the results were dramatic. From the findings of this study, the authors have put forward a new promotion mix appropriation model.     

The impact of regulatory focus on adolescents’ evaluation of targeted advertising on social networking sites

This article examines whether individual differences in chronic regulatory focus (prevention vs. promotion focus) among adolescents influences the way they evaluate targeted advertising on social networking sites. Study 1 (survey) reveals that adolescents with a promotion focus (who are oriented toward achieving positive outcomes) have a more positive attitude and a higher purchase intention toward targeted advertising, as compared to prevention-focused adolescents (who are dispositioned toward avoiding negative outcomes). Study 2 (experiment) investigates how adolescents’ chronic regulatory focus can alter their attitude and purchase intention on a mock social networking site that includes a targeted advertisement. Results show that a low personalized targeted ad is better evaluated (in terms of a more positive attitude and higher purchase intention) among prevention-focused adolescents, whereas a high personalized targeted ad results in better advertising outcomes among promotion-focused adolescents. Contributions to theory and implications for advertising practice are discussed.     

Information diffusion and new product consumption: A bass model application to tourism facility management

This article applies models to measure and to understand how information diffusion influences tourists' consumption patterns. The study uses administrative data on a new festival's attendance and advertising. Bass's [Bass FM. A new product growth for model consumer durables. Manage Sci 1969;15(5):215-227] model and a modified version [Horsky D, Simon LS. Advertising and the diffusion of new products. Mark Sci 1983;2(1):1-18] to allow for advertising's effect. Results imply effectiveness of front loaded advertising. This result is due to increasing purchases that result from word-of-mouth information diffusion. However, a model with an effect of advertising is accepted as well as a model with no consideration of advertising budget. Examination of consistency and conceptual issues with models raises the need for models that are more realistic for the tourism product. A specific concern is developing models appropriate to analysis of attendance at a limited-duration innovative event (e.g., new product) held at a host to impact longer-term attendance of the host.     

Comparing measures of persuasion knowledge adapted for young children

Young children under 8 years old are viewed as especially vulnerable to marketing communications because they do not have sufficient knowledge about the purpose of persuasive advertising messages, also known as children's persuasion knowledge (CPK). However, a review of 25 studies that have tested CPK effects, on primarily older children, finds inconsistent or no support for CPK. The lack of support depends on the effect studied, and a measurement challenge because of young children's limited capabilities in reading and responding to questions from interviewers. Thirteen measures of CPK have been tested but not compared for CPK effects. These measures were simplified to nonverbal options for young children and tested on a sample of 4‐ to 7‐year‐old North East Chinese children (n = 233). These measures were each tested in relation to the children's age (positive), their skepticism toward advertising (positive), their disbelief of false claims in a TV commercial (TVC) (positive) and their affect toward the TVC (negative). Only two measures of CPK show any expected associated responses with “knowing the source” of advertisements the best measure. Perceived marketer intentions had no expected associations, nor did the age of the child. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of theory, measurement, and applications for marketers and public policy.     

The effects of detailing on prescribing decisions under quality uncertainty

Motivated by recent empirical findings on the relationship between new clinical evidence and the effectiveness of detailing, this paper develops a new structural model of detailing and prescribing decisions under the environment where both manufacturers and physicians are uncertain about drug qualities. Our model assumes (1) a representative opinion leader is responsible for updating the prior belief about the quality of drugs via consumption experiences and clinical trial outcomes, and (2) manufacturers use detailing as a means to build/maintain the measure of physicians who are informed of the current information sets. Unlike previous learning models with informative detailing, our model directly links the effectiveness of detailing to the current information sets and the measures of well-informed physicians. To illustrate the empirical implications of the new model, we estimate our model using a product level panel data on sales volume, prices, detailing minutes, and clinical trial outcomes for ACE-inhibitors with diuretics in Canada. Using our estimates, we demonstrate how the effectiveness of detailing depends on the information sets and the measures of well-informed physicians. Furthermore, we conduct a policy experiment to examine how a public awareness campaign, which encourages physicians/patients to report their drug experiences, would affect managerial incentives to detail. The results demonstrate that the empirical and managerial implications of our model can be very different from those of previous models. We argue that our results point out the importance of developing a structural model that captures the mechanism of how detailing/advertising conveys information in the market under study.     

The Effects of Advertising Rates on Newspaper Advertisng Linage: A Pilot Study

The highly complex area of newspaper economics is often reduced to the simple statement-advertising revenue is a function of circulation. While this statement is obviously oversimplified, it does express the perceived importance of the circulation/advertising relationship to management of newspapers. The relationship's importance is further amplified by the fact that newspapers partially base advertising rate structures on circulation and advertising linage levels. Yet, surprisingly, very few attempts have been made to study the relationship between newspaper circulation, advertising rates and advertising linage empirically.

This study examines the effect of differences in newspaper circulation and advertising rates on the amount of total advertising linage, national advertising linage and retail advertising linage.

The results imply that circulation seems to have a significant and strong positive effect on total advertising linage in the sample analyzed. Time-series analysis confirm this finding. Circulation's effect on national advertising linage is even greater-elasticities of one or larger.

The effect on local advertising linage is much less elastic. but still significant. The effects of the advertising rate on advertising linage are much less clear from this research. In fact. it is not possible to draw any significant conclusions concerning the way advertisers respond to changes in the advertising rate from the results of the research. This is an area that needs more indepth research.     

Using stated response choice data to enrich revealed preference discrete choice models

There is growing interest in exploring the view that both revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data have useful information and that their integration will enrich the overall explanatory power of RP choice models. These two types of data have been independently used in the estimation of a wide variety of discrete choice applications in marketing. In order to combine the two data sources, each with independent choice outcomes, allowance must be made for their different scaling properties. The approach uses a full information maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the hierarchical logit form to obtain suitable scaling parameters to make one or more data sets comparable. We illustrate the advantages of the dual data strategy by comparing the results with those obtained from models estimated independently with RP and SP data. Data collected as part of a study of high speed rail is used to estimate a set of illustrative mode choice models.     

Consumer Response to Coupon Advertising

Because coupon advertising has both the characteristics of advertising and sales promotion, it may have distinctive effects on consumers that cannot be explained solely by coupons or advertising. Past studies present contradicting results as to the consumers' response to coupon advertising. Our experiment shows that while the coupon may be an incentive for loyal consumers of competing brands, it may be a distractor for brand-loyal consumers in processing the coupon advertising. For multi-brand users, coupons do not appear to have any distinctive effects on processing the coupon advertising. An empirical investigation of an integrated consumer response model to coupon advertising indeed shows that there are various interactive effects between the coupon and the main advertisement. These results may provide guidelines for making targeting and promotion decisions, especially for an internationally well-known brand that is entering a new market where local or other international brands are already serving the customers.     

Cross-category sales promotion effects

We introduce a multivariate binomial logit model measuring cross-category dependence and sales promotion effects of a retail assortment. This model requires as data both the market baskets of individual shoppers and the categories currently promoted in a retail outlet. A special section describes the stepwise procedure used to estimate parameters of this model. Its application is demonstrated analyzing 6147 purchases that were acquired in a medium-sized supermarket. We finally discuss the managerial relevance of this model for sales promotion decisions of retail firms.     

Decomposing the effect of advertising: What happens in the retail channel?

The diverging interests of manufacturers and retailers famously give rise to the double marginalization problem but have consequences far beyond pricing. Advertising is another marketing instrument that is under the control of the manufacturer but its ultimate effect on consumer demand also depends on retailers’ pricing decisions. We decompose the effect of advertising in the channel and highlight an additional route through which advertising affects sales, namely via the changes in the retail price that a strategic retailer makes in response to changes in demand following manufacturer advertising. The total demand effect of advertising thus comprises the direct effects of advertising on market shares, and the indirect effects coming through adjustments that the retailer makes to the in-store prices of all the brands in a given product category in response to the shifted demand due to advertising. We match advertising data for four different categories (both food and non-food) to store-level scanner panel data, which also include information on wholesale prices. Controlling for wholesale prices, we establish in a reduced-form model that the retailer reacts to manufacturer advertising by changing retail prices instead of simply imposing a constant markup on the wholesale price. To further explore the role of the strategic response of the retailer in a systematic fashion and quantify the effects derived in the decomposition, we estimate a discrete-choice model of demand and determine the magnitude of the direct and indirect effects. We find that the indirect effect of advertising through retailer prices is about half the size of the direct effect, and thus substantively affects advertising effectiveness.     

Market mechanics: A study to measure the effect of marketing instruments on the market position of fast-moving consumer goods

The objective of the research was to establish the various effects of the marketing instruments on the market shares of fast-moving consumer goods. The marketing instruments analyzed were price level, price changes, promotion, advertising, and media mix. Within the analysis the integrated effect of the distribution pattern had to be taken into account. The analysis of 186 brands and the data gathered over 7 three-month periods was taken from two models loosely based on Koyck. The results can be used to estimate the effectiveness of the marketing tools under scrutiny and their declining marginal revenue in the German market. A number of different efficiency ratings can be detected between the separate product categories under analysis. For marketing managers there are three particularly interesting points: (1) Brands with a low price index have only relatively small market advantages in comparison with expensive brands; (2) but price changes lead to very strong movements in the market shares; (3) in the case of brands with a small share of the advertising spent, both print and TV advertising have a similar effectiveness. With a larger share of advertising, the TV effectiveness declines because of saturation effects.     

Advertising Age Yearbook 1983. Covering the Events of 1982. Chicago: Crain Books, 1983, 320 pp. $34.95

Abstract

The use of highly attractive women in advertising is certainly popular, though support for their effectiveness is somewhat mixed (e.g., Bower and Landreth 2001; Caballero, Lumpkin, and Madden 1989; Caballero and Solomon 1984). Other research has established that some women experience negative affect by comparing themselves with these beautiful models (e.g., Irving 1990; Martin and Gentry 1997; Richins 1991). The present research extends prior undertakings by investigating whether the negative affect stemming from comparisons with these highly attractive models may have a negative impact on advertising effectiveness. The pattern of results from two studies indicates that, when sufficient negative affect is generated as a consequence of comparison with beautiful models, evaluations of both the model as a spokesperson and the product argument may be affected adversely because of model derogation. Given the significant effect that evaluations of spokesperson and product argument can have on product evaluations and intentions, the importance of this finding of model derogation is discussed.     

Modeling heterogeneous effective advertising stock using single-source data

This paper presents a nonlinear modeling of market response between advertising stock and direct utility with heterogeneous parameters using single-source data. We examine advertising threshold effects and measure the effective advertising stock at the individual consumer level. Two kinds of information, i.e., TV advertising exposure data and consumer’s purchase history data, are combined for the modeling. The former is used for constructing advertising stock over calendar time via heterogeneous carryover parameters and the latter is applied to the choice model. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to estimate these heterogeneous parameters. Compared to other possible nonlinear specifications, it is shown that the proposed threshold utility function model with discontinuity at the threshold performs better than other smooth market response models. The empirical results support the existence of an advertising threshold and suggest the pulsing or “on/off” policy for our datasets. In terms of the effective reach, implying the reach after suspending the ad exposure to investigate how it is damping out for a possible “on/off” advertising policy, the optimal “off” interval was measured to be quite short to support a high-frequency pulsing policy, because the carryover parameter as well as the difference of ad stock and threshold are not large enough for our datasets.      

Estes' stimulus sampling theory and massed versus spaced advertising schedules

Few studies offer a theoretical explanation of the differential effects of massed and spaced advertising. Consequently, conclusions have been mixed. The authors introduce the stimulus sampling model of spacing effects based on Estes' mathematical learning theory. The model posits that massed repetition generates superior memory at short retention intervals, whereas spaced repetition produces superior memory at longer retention intervals. Data from various studies are analyzed, and implications and potential applications of the model in the advertising context are explored.     

The commercial contribution of clinical studies for pharmaceutical drugs

Pharmaceutical drugs are rigorously evaluated through clinical studies. The commercial consequences of such clinical studies, both to the promotion for and sales of drugs, are largely under-researched. The present study answers the following research questions: 1) How does the evolution of clinical study outcomes affect product sales? 2) How does the evolution of clinical study outcomes affect a firm's promotion expenditures to physicians and consumers? 3) Is the assessment of the responsiveness of sales to promotion expenditures biased when the analyst omits the role of clinical studies? We summarize a comprehensive body of clinical studies in three metrics: valence, dispersion, and volume. We extend the literature with the following findings. A higher valence and volume of clinical studies (i.e., more positive and larger number of studies) increase sales. A higher valence of clinical studies increases spending on both direct-to-consumer advertising and direct-to-physician promotion. A higher dispersion among clinical studies decreases spending on direct-to-consumer advertising. A higher volume of clinical studies has no effect on direct-to-physician promotion, but decreases direct-to-consumer advertising. Furthermore, the results show that omitting these metrics from a market response model leads to an overestimation of the responsiveness of sales to promotion expenditures.     

Specialty Advertising as a Tool for Building Goodwill

While some work has been done in specialty advertis- ing's impact, most has been anecdotal. This paper reports an experi- ment which tests the effects specialty advertising has on building goodwill with present customers. A questionnaire designed to measure goodwill was developed, tested, and found to be unidimensional in its construction. Confir- matory factor analysis was performed to rule out the possibility of multiple underlying dimensions. A field experiment was conducted to determine whether the gift of appreciation would.have a significant impact on the goodwill of present customers toward their bank. According to the results of the goodwill scale, neither of the two specialty advertising items nor the letter of appreciation by itself produced differential responses in the bank's customers. The implications of using specialty advertising to generate good- will among present customers as well as future research possibilities are discussed.     

Tradeoffs between sensory attributes and organic labels: the case of orange juice

Researchers have investigated the role of sensory attributes and organic labels on consumers’ preferences and perceptions of food, but few has examined whether sensory attributes are relevant for consumers who prefer organic food and the extent to which sensory attributes influence consumer's marginal willingness to pay for organic food. The objective of this study is to determine how sensory attributes and organic label work together to influence consumer's stated preference and marginal willingness to pay for orange juice. To achieve this, we conducted a blind sensory evaluation of two orange juices followed by a discrete choice experiment to determine the extent to which consumer's stated preference for orange juice labelled as organic is affected by sensory experience preceding the choice experiment. Random parameter logit models and latent class conditional logit models are used to explain stated preference. Results indicate that the effect of sensory attributes on consumer's marginal willingness to pay differed by organic juice and conventional juice.