Input Trade Liberalization and the Export Duration of Products: Evidence from China

This paper introduces a quasi‐natural experimental framework into trade policy evaluation and reassesses China's trade liberalization through the survival of export products. We use propensity score matching and China's dual trade system to design a quasi‐natural experiment based on Chinese industrial enterprises, customs import and export, and tariff data over the period of 2000–2006; we then use survival analysis to study the impacts of China's trade liberalization on the export duration of manufacturing firms’ products. We find that the substantial reduction in import tariffs after China's accession to the World Trade Organization enhances the export duration of firm products, indicating that trade liberalization ameliorates the survival of export products. The promotion effects of tariff reduction on export duration are obviously stronger for core products than for noncore products.     

中国装备制造业出口增长结构的差异分析

文章利用偏离-份额分析法,对2001—2008年中国各区域装备制造业的出口增长结构进行了分解。结果表明,需求增长是推动各地区装备制造业出口增长的主要动力,但作用在逐渐减小;产业结构效应对出口增长的作用已经完全丧失,竞争力效应对不同地区装备制造业的出口增长作用存在明显差异,东部地区竞争优势正在快速减弱,中西部装备制造业正在快速崛起,竞争优势逐步体现出来。     

Measuring the export capability of South African regions

Recent research has identified what determines local exports and what policies might make them grow. Regions with higher Gross Domestic Product per capita, faster population growth, higher levels of skills, greater export diversification and shorter distances to ports have experienced faster export growth. However, the results of regression models apply to a theoretical representative region and do not allow one to establish where policy interventions will be most effective. This article constructs an index to identify the regions in South Africa that can export manufactured goods. It draws on the literature of the determinants of exports for indicators of the capability (or potential) to export across 354 magisterial districts in 1996 and 2001. The results show a positive relationship between export capability and export performance. The article identifies a number of front-runner magisterial districts along with those of high capability but low performance that stand to benefit most from industrial policy interventions.     

Does Experience Facilitate Entry nto New Export Destinations？

Using a large panel dataset that covers 116 countries and 5013products over the period 1998-2010, this study evaluates the effects of export experience on the geographic expansion of China ＂s exports. The results suggest that past export experience in geographically close and culturally similar markets plays a crucial role in.facilitating new market entry, and the positive spillover effects are more pronounced for incumbent and successful products. The results also indicate that spillovers from export experience are market-specific and product- specific, and they are limited to within the same product class and the same market, with little cross-group effects. Finally, there is no strong evidence that export experience is more important for differentiated products than for homogeneous products, and the positive spillover effects are remarkable for both categories of products.     

安徽出口商品结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

论文利用安徽省1988-2008年的工业制成品出口、初级产品出口和GDP的年度统计数据,从出口商品结构的角度出发,并利用协整理论、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对安徽省的出口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,安徽出口商品与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,工业制成品的出口对该地区的经济增长具有单向的推动作用。据此,对进一步加大安徽出口工作力度,提出了优化出口商品结构以促进安徽省经济持续稳定增长的政策建议。     

中国出口贸易结构影响产业结构的机制——基于贸易内生技术进步经济增长模型的实证研究

文章基于贸易内生技术进步经济增长模型,实证研究了中国1994—2010年间出口贸易结构影响产业结构的机制,发现出口贸易部门对非贸易部门技术外溢的正外部性影响促进了中国经济与产业发展,但中国各出口贸易结构部门以及整体出口贸易部门的全要素生产率水平依然较低,并由此提出通过实施贸易商品结构战略化、贸易方式结构一般化、贸易主体结构民营化以及贸易区域结构多元化来加速产业结构升级。     

生产性服务业集群对外贸出口的影响——基于山东、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东经验数据

文章选择了出口贸易额较大(约占全国80%)的六个省市的面板数据作为研究对象,对六省市生产性服务业集群对出口贸易额的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:生产性服务业集群对出口额的增长有促进作用,生产性服务业中的交通运输、仓储和邮政业、信息传输、计算机和软件业、金融业的产业集群对各省市出口贸易的发展有较大的影响。在此基础上,文章建议通过发展生产性服务业的产业集群促进出口的增长。     

我国创新型产业集群的分布及其培育策略

创新型产业集群的建设和发展,是建设制造强国的重要路径之一。运用全国61个创新型产业集群单位和47个创新型产业集群培育单位的数据,研究发现:我国的创新型产业集群和培育集群多集中在东部沿海经济发达地区;创新型产业集群体现了不同地域主导产业和龙头企业的特色;创新型产业培育集群布局依托了地区产业发展优势,满足了协调发展要求;创新型产业集群是各地区重要经济增长极,有显著的带动效应。同时,创新型产业集群和创新型产业培育集群在不同行业的分布存在明显差异;一些创新型产业集群已拥有国际国内有影响的知名品牌;创新型产业集群和培育集群主要集中于先进制造业,体现了国家战略;重要细分行业还缺乏创新型产业集群和创新型产业培育集群。未来,应推动创新型产业集群的连片发展,促进建成全球领先的先进制造集聚区;促进集群内企业、研发机构、服务机构等的深度分工协作,增强集群的国际竞争力;发展生产性服务业,构建创新型产业集群发展的现代服务支撑体系。     

Development in China＇s Foreign Trade： 2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.     

Analysis of Chinese Manufacturing Export Duration

This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6‐digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short‐lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.     

中国茶叶出口价格变动的动态关系分析

文章运用协整检验、误差修正模型及脉冲响应函数等方法,分析了我国取消茶叶出口配额和许可证管理后,不同性质出口企业的茶叶出口价格和我国茶叶出口平均价格之间的动态关系。结果表明．私营企业对我国茶叶出口平均价格提升贡献较大。在此基础上,文章有针对性地提出改善我国茶叶出口价格提升竞争力的对策建议.     

中国出口贸易结构的特征及优化对策

2007—2011年期间,我国出口贸易结构出现了一些新特征和新问题,主要表现在出口商品结构中初级产品以食品为主、工业制成品以化学制品为主,出口国别市场多元化发展态势明显,外商投资企业仍是我国外贸出口主体等。对此,我国应打造良好的国内产业结构优化环境、强化出口企业创建自主品牌和核心技术的观念、调整加工贸易战略和实施出口市场多元化战略,实现出口贸易结构优化和对外贸易持续健康发展。     

生产率影响差异及企业出口竞争力——基于不同所有制企业的实证分析

运用中国工业企业的微观数据,本文研究了不同所有制企业生产率对企业出口竞争力的影响。研究发现,所有制是影响企业出口竞争力的重要因素,国有企业的出口竞争力明显小于私营企业、外资企业和港澳台企业。进一步研究表明,生产率对不同所有制企业出口竞争力的影响存在显著差异。生产率对国有企业获得出口竞争力有负向影响,但私营企业、外资企业和港澳台企业的生产率水平越高,其进入出口市场的竞争力越强。     

基于生态理论的电子信息产业集群演进路径研究

电子信息产业集群的成长是一个长期、渐进、由低级向高级逐步发展的动态过程,且表现出与自然界生物集群效应的高度相似性。文章借用生态学个体—种群—群落的演进路径,借鉴成熟的产业集群发展理论,并以经济分析方法为基本工具,构建了一个完整系统的电子信息产业集群演进模型,从形成期、发展期、成熟期、演化期剖析电子信息产业集群形成和演化的内在机制,探讨寻找电子信息产业集群可持续发展的路径。     

数字贸易、产业结构升级与出口技术复杂度——基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应

提升出口技术复杂度能显著提升中国创新能力,而发展数字贸易是促进中国出口技术复杂度提升的重要途径。研究数字贸易的影响因素以及数字贸易通过哪些途径对中国出口技术复杂度产生影响,是理顺数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间关系的关键任务。利用中国30个省(区、市)的数据,使用结构方程模型和中介效应检验方法,分析了数字贸易综合竞争力对中国出口技术复杂度的影响,结果发现:信息化水平、政府科技支出占比、进出口贸易、劳动生产率通过数字贸易对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,但政府科技支出对中国数字贸易综合竞争力的影响最小;数字贸易通过人力资本对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,R&D强度在数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间起中介作用;数字贸易通过R&D强度对中国产业结构升级产生显著的间接效应,其对产业结构的作用能通过人力资本、R&D强度进行传导。因此,要加快推动数字贸易高质量发展,大力提升信息化水平,不断提升政府科技支出对数字贸易综合竞争力的促进作用。     

产业集群内知识转移的动力机制模型研究

对产业集群内知识转移进行深入的研究,剖析出产业集群的转移机制,首先对产业集群做出理解并给出知识转移的定义,介绍了产业集群知识转移网络的内涵、网络内知识转移的层次、知识转移的方式,之后又总结概括了知识转移的驱动因素,以上述为基础,结合集群内知识转移动态过程这一特征入手进行研究,构建了以信任机制、动力机制和过程机制为基础的产业集群知识转移的动力机制模型,为深入研究产业集群内的知识转移提供理论基础。     

Export Activity,Firm Size and Wage Structure: Evidence from Taiwanese Manufacturing Firms*

This study adopts a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to evaluate the export–wage premiums, firm size–wage premiums, and the wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor. Particular focus is placed upon widespread evidence indicating that pay levels in ‘large’ and ‘export‐oriented’ firms are higher than in their ‘small’ and ‘domestic‐oriented’ counterparts. Applying the firm‐level data for Taiwanese manufacturing firms, we find a positive export–wage premium for skilled workers and a negative export–wage premium for unskilled workers. The hypothesis of a constant export premium across firm size is rejected. While most of the export–wage premiums for skilled labor can be attributed to the small and medium firms, the large exporting firms have a significant adverse effect on wages for unskilled labor. Moreover, our results suggest that the firm size–wage premiums for skilled workers are larger than those for unskilled workers. The wage gap between the two skill groups is also sensitive to size categories.     

知识视角下高新技术集群企业技术能力成长机制研究

以高新技术集群企业为研究对象,基于高新技术集群与传统集群相比的异质性,分析了高新技术集群企业技术能力的本质和特征。尝试将SECI模型拓展到高新技术集群研究,分析高新技术集群网络内成员主体的知识转化、创造过程,进一步探讨集群网络主体间的知识整合促进企业技术能力成长的内在机制。     

安徽省生产性服务业与制造业产业集群发展——基于承接产业转移视角

安徽省在制造业产业集群发展以及外部资金引进方面与长三角等地区相比还有很大差距,大多数的产业集群规模小,吸引和集中功能不足.同时,生产性服务业发展落后,产业配套功能不完善安徽省承接制造业产业转移,不仅使制造业产业集群得到进一步的发展壮大,也为生产性服务业的发展提供了巨大的市场空间,进而优化了产业结构.在安徽省承接产业转移的过程中,需要通过加强规划引导、完善集群内产业配套、加快集群产业升级等措施来促进产业集群与承接产业转移的良性互动发展.