试析奥运经济的负面影响

文章采用文献资料,逻辑分析等方法,对奥运经济的负面影响进行研究。结果表明:奥运经济的负面影响主要包括短期投资需求膨胀影响经济持续稳定发展;奥运会体育设施的闲置;举办城市弱势群体生活受损;奥运会引起举办城市的社会额外增加等四个方面。研究目的是为了降低奥运经济的负面影响,扩大正面影响,以促进我国及其举办城市的整体经济在奥运会后获得持续健康的发展。     

Revisiting the Okun relationship

Our article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We find that the share of temporary workers (which includes a high and rising share of young workers) played a crucial role in explaining changes in the Okun coefficient (the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate) over time. The Okun coefficient is not only different for young, prime-age and older workers but also it decreases with age. From a policy perspective, it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment.     

Revisiting the Lemons Market

This article extends the standard competitive adverse selection model by allowing for qualitatively different information structures of agents on the informed side of the market. Using the stylized framework of the market for used cars, we examine the welfare properties of equilibria under the assumption that a fraction of the sellers remains uninformed about a parameter that is relevant for their own transaction. Whether market performance increases or decreases in the number of uninformed sellers is shown to depend on (1) the potential gains from trade in the market and (2) the average quality of the sellers' information structure.     

Revisiting Externalities

For economies with one-sided externalities between firms, four types of results are presented and discussed: (i) the impossibility of decentralized finite-dimensional mechanisms guaranteeing Pareto optimality; (ii) the possibilities for Pigou taxes in situations where Arrovian markets cannot function; (iii) that mergers may be able to internalize "weak" externalities but not "strong" ones; and (iv) that "parallelism" of indifference curves (quasi-linear utilities, absence of income effects) is necessary, and not merely sufficient, for the validity of the Coase Invariance Theorem (asserting that alternative institutional arrangements do not change the level of externality). The paper builds on the seminal contributions of Starrett, Calsamiglia, Baumol, Bradford, Oates, Boyd, and Conley.     

Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum

Households' inflation perceptions and expectations play a key role in many dynamic macroeconomic and monetary models and are important for the ability of central banks to reach their objective of price stability. This paper revisits the issue of overestimation bias in inflation perceptions and expectations based on new and unique microdata from the Danish part of the EU-Harmonised Consumer Expectations Survey linked to rich household-level data from administrative registers. The analysis shows that accounting for even several of the household characteristics and social gradients usually addressed in the literature is far from sufficient to explain the inflation perception bias. Furthermore, we find that respondents participating in the survey more than once tend to be persistent in their degree of perception bias and that overpessimistic households have larger perception bias than other households. This indicates that inflation perception bias is related to fundamental personality traits. Finally, households' expectations of the future inflation level tend to be mean reverting and associated with the same types of bias as inflation perceptions.     

Revisiting the infant industry argument

This paper identifies a flaw in the infant industry argument that previous literature has ignored. A simple model first replicates the infant industry logic but subsequently shows that, in the presence of a ‘traditional technology’ with poor growth potential, the infant-industry logic is likely to fail. Under protectionism domestic producers substitute advanced technologies with the low-growth alternative, thereby inhibiting learning and economic growth. Protectionism's adverse effect on development is magnified by complementarities among advanced input goods and, under adequate conditions, in a three-country setting.     

货币政策对微观企业的经济效应再检验——基于贷款期限结构视角的研究

本文基于贷款期限结构的异质性视角检验了货币政策对微观企业的经济效应。首先,企业短期借款占比越高,货币政策对企业投融资的影响越大,说明较短的贷款期限会放大货币政策冲击对实体经济投融资的影响。其次,短期借款占比越高,紧缩货币政策条件下过度投资和经理人代理成本下降得越快,说明较短的贷款期限会强化紧缩货币政策与代理成本之间的负向关系。最后,短期借款占比越高,紧缩货币政策条件下企业绩效上升得越快,说明紧缩货币政策条件下贷款期限产生的治理效应超过了流动性风险效应。从非对称效应的角度看,期限结构视角下紧缩货币政策的效果强于宽松货币政策的效果。从异质性的角度看,对于成长期的企业、高成长性行业以及面临融资约束的企业而言,紧缩货币政策条件下短期借款对公司绩效的正向影响减弱。本文从贷款期限的视角进一步揭示了货币政策传导的具体机制,对于经济新常态下如何更好地进行总需求管理具有一定的启示。     

Revisiting the core-periphery view of EMU

This study extends Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1993) empirical methodology in order to give a reappraisal of the core-periphery view of the enlarged euro area. We show how to derive two useful indices from the “correlation box” formed by aggregate demand and supply shocks. One measures the Euclidean distance to the core, while the other reveals whether shock asymmetry comes mostly from the production or the demand side. Using data over 1996–2008 on 21 countries and iterative VAR estimates, we find evidence of a gradual move to the symmetric core while new EMU Member States still remain at the very periphery.     

Revisiting the exchange rate disconnect puzzle

One of the major anomalies in International Macroeconomics is the persistent finding that the exchange rate has no empirical relationship with a variety of macroeconomic fundamentals. Dubbed the ‘exchange rate disconnect puzzle’, this article examines this issue for five Australian dollar bilateral exchange rates, using quarterly data for the period 1984:1–2015:4. A novel feature of this article is that it departs from the extant literature by using a different approach to testing for cointegration. The results show that the exchange rates and fundamentals move together in the long run. Furthermore, the results show that fundamentals Granger cause exchange rates, both in the short run and the long run.     

劳动工资理论的误区及其矫正

劳动要素所得过低是导致我国收入分配差距过大的重要因素.所谓劳动力成本低廉的竞争优势,在很大程度上是挤压了劳动者合理的生存工资、生活条件和最基本的社会保障而形成的.这是新古典经济学市场竞争决定收入分配从而决定雇佣环境带来的后果,走出这一误区就需要在认识这些理论缺陷的同时补上遗漏的工资理论信息,为改变劳动报酬偏低的收入分配格局提供理论支撑和政策导向.     

Revisiting the Relevance of International Trade Theory

Probably one of the most controversial contributions to the literature of international trade theory was offered by the late social economist John Culbertson. In his view, low wage competition among corporations in a world characterized by capital mobility and massive trade deficits undermines the foundation trade theory based on David Ricardo’s celebrated notion of comparative advantage. Instead, there are several good reasons to believe that international trade with China, India, Vietnam, etc. will be governed by absolute advantage. The current essay is dedicated to the virtually ignored work of Culbertson, and it is meant as an invitation for social economists to critically evaluate the argument and in the process make an attempt to point out where it goes wrong.

Revisiting the Relevance of International Trade Theory

Probably one of the most controversial contributions to the literature of international trade theory was offered by the late social economist John Culbertson. In his view, low wage competition among corporations in a world characterized by capital mobility and massive trade deficits undermines the foundation trade theory based on David Ricardo’s celebrated notion of comparative advantage. Instead, there are several good reasons to believe that international trade with China, India, Vietnam, etc. will be governed by absolute advantage. The current essay is dedicated to the virtually ignored work of Culbertson, and it is meant as an invitation for social economists to critically evaluate the argument and in the process make an attempt to point out where it goes wrong.     

奥运会与周边产业的关联效应分析

文章从产业关联理论的角度出发,对产业关联理论和奥运产业关联理论作了简要的阐述,在此基础上分析了奥运会对其周边产业的关联效应,主要包括奥运会对体育业、旅游业、文化业、金融业的关联效应。并对奥运会的产业关联度模型的优缺点进行了探讨,得出了不应该只注重奥运会的直接关联效应,还要充分考虑其完全关联效应的结论。     

Revisiting the case for a populist central banker

It is known that discretionary policy may give rise to an inflationary bias if wages are negotiated in nominal terms. In a recent issue of this Review, Guzzo and Velasco argued that this bias can be eliminated, and welfare maximized, by the appointment of a central banker who does not care at all about inflation (a ‘populist’ central banker). A conceptual flaw of the latter result is identified here. It is shown that when wages are negotiated in nominal terms the result is true only in the special case of a single, all-encompassing, union. In the more general case of multiple unions, however, inflation increases linearly with their number and a populist central bank may turn out to decrease welfare.     

Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers

We analyze whether popular measures of narrative tax shocks can be treated as relevant instruments for observable endogenous tax series of interest. We find that narrative tax measures are only weakly correlated with cyclically adjusted tax revenues for the US and the UK. Using weak‐instrument robust inference, narrative tax measures often yield insignificant estimates of tax multipliers. We conclude that the literature currently understates the uncertainty associated with estimating the tax multiplier using the narrative approach.     

Revisiting the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals

In this paper, we apply the permanent–transitory decomposition method to analyze the role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining the apparent weak link between nominal exchange rates and economic fundamentals. The results suggest that for most of the countries we investigate, including Finland, Italy, Portugal, France and Switzerland, transitory shocks dominate exchange rate fluctuations, while permanent shocks dominate the variations in economic fundamentals. The findings therefore provide an alternative interpretation of the “exchange rate disconnect puzzle”. Moreover, the results also suggest that comprehensive modeling of transitory components in empirical models should not be neglected in studies of the dynamics of exchange rates.     

Revisiting the welfare effects of eliminating business cycles

We investigate the welfare effects of eliminating business cycles in a model with substantial consumer heterogeneity. The heterogeneity arises from uninsurable and idiosyncratic uncertainty in preferences and employment status. We calibrate the model to match the distribution of wealth in U.S. data and features of transitions between employment and unemployment. In comparison with much of the literature, we find rather large effects. For our benchmark model, we find welfare effects that, on average across all consumers, are of a bit more than one order of magnitude larger than those computed by Lucas [Lucas Jr., R.E., 1987. Models of Business Cycles. Basil Blackwell, New York]. When we distinguish long- from short-term unemployment, long-term unemployment being distinguished by poor (and highly procyclical) employment prospects and low unemployment compensation, the average gain from eliminating cycles is as much as 1% in consumption equivalents. In addition, in both models, there are large differences across groups: very poor consumers gain a lot when cycles are removed (the long-term unemployed as much as around 30%), as do very rich consumers, whereas the majority of consumers—the “middle class”—sees much smaller gains from removing cycles. Inequality also rises substantially upon removing cycles.     

2008年北京奥运会对旅游产业的影响及对策研究

奥运会作为目前世界最大的全球体育赛事,必然会对举办国的旅游业乃至经济产生重大影响。奥运会对旅游市场的兴起、提升旅游形象、吸引旅游客源和创造旅游环境有一定影响。因此,中国旅游业在迎接2008年北京奥运会时应树立“大奥运”、“大旅游”的经济观念等对策与措施。     

2008年北京奥运经济、社会效益研究探析

文章采用文献资料、逻辑分析等方法,对2008年北京奥运会经济、社会效益研究的现状与存在的某些不足进行了探讨和分析。并提出了今后研究的主要内容、基本思路、方法以及几点建议。