Current Account Dynamics in a Small Open‐Economy Model of Status Seeking*

In this paper we analyze the implications of status preference, modeled as relative wealth, for the current account in a small open‐economy framework with capital stock dynamics. We demonstrate that the transitional dynamics of the economy are characterized by two distinct speeds of adjustment: a speed of adjustment arising from status preference and a speed of adjustment arising from installation costs of investment. This structure implies that the current account balance depends on both speeds of adjustment as well as on the long‐run equilibrium, which is a function of the degree of status consciousness. As a consequence, the current account can exhibit nonmonotonic behavior in transition to the steady‐state equilibrium subsequent to a productivity disturbance.     

Imports, Status Preference, and Foreign Borrowing

This paper considers the implications of consumption and borrowing externalities in a small open economy framework. The former reflect the assumption that status conscious agents care about the relative consumption of imported goods, while the latter arise because agents do not take into account the effects of their borrowing decisions on the interest rate on debt. We analyze in the paper the impact of an increase in the degree of status preference on the saddlepath adjustment of the decentralized economy. In addition, the contrasting steady‐state and dynamic properties of the social planner’s economy are derived, along with the corresponding optimal tax and subsidy policies.     

An Interest Rate Shock on a Small Debtor Economy with Installation Costs of Investment

This paper generalizes the Blanchard-Fischer model (1989) for a small open economy with installation costs of investment. By allowing the divergence of the subjective time preference rate and the world interest rate, the model avoids a constant consumption path which is neither feasible nor desirable for a small growing economy. While the divergence does not define an usual steady state equilibrium, the installation costs of investment lead the economy to the point at which foreign borrowing is entirely used for the consumption purpose while avoiding infinite borrowing. The intrinsic dynamic responses of the model to an unexpected world interest rate shock is then analyzed. [F34]     

社会地位、非期望效用函数、资产定价和经济增长

本文利用非期望偏好结构 ,讨论消费和资产收益的时间序列行为。在这种递归偏好结构中 ,投资者积累财富不仅仅为了消费 ,也为了财富所带来的社会地位 ,我们研究这一假设对消费、投资组合策略、证券市场价格以及经济增长的影响 ,并利用所得到的定价方程讨论风险溢金问题。     

Equilibrium Growth in a Small Economy Facing an Imperfect World Capital Market

A growth model of a developing economy facing an upward-sloping curve of debt is analyzed. Equilibrium is characterized by transitional dynamics in which consumption, capital, and debt converge to a common growth rate. The adjustment is through the debt-capital ratio, which drives the borrowing rate to a level at which growth rates are equalized. The economy is subject to two externalities: a production externality associated with government expenditure, and a financial externality associated with the upward-sloping supply of debt. The tax structure that enables the decentalized economy to attain the first-best equilibrium is characterized.     

Population growth: A pure welfarist approach

In this study we propose a framework based on welfarist principles to deal with several issues concerned with population economics models, such as the Repugnant Conclusion, both in absolute and relative sense, the shape of childbearing costs and population dynamics, under both normative and positive perspectives. We show that the relative critical level criterion can avoid both the assumption of high childbearing costs and the absolute repugnant conclusion (ARC) but cannot avoid the relative repugnant conclusion (RRC). Moreover, optimal fertility is increased by technological shocks and displays cycles. Both ARC and RRC can be avoided by extending the model to a decentralized economy with consumption externalities; in the latter model, a technological shock reduces long‐run fertility and can generate cycles along the transitional path.     

Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in a small open economy model

We examine dynamic revenue effects of a permanent tax cut on labor and capital income using a small open two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. We use a dynamic scoring technique to calculate long-run as well as transitional effects on fiscal revenue when a tax cut is financed by either a lump-sum tax or consumption tax. We show that the revenue loss from an income tax cut becomes substantially smaller when agents can use international financial markets compared to the case of the closed economy. Responses of tradable and nontradable sectors to the capital income tax cut display a stark contrast in both long-run equilibrium and transitional dynamics due to different factor intensities. Capital income tax cut in the tradable sector is the most efficient policy instrument in terms of minimizing fiscal revenue loss. These simulation results suggest that fiscal sustainability issue when implementing a tax cut could be overstated.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

A theory of economic development and dynamics of Chinese economy

This paper constructs a theoretical model which captures the recent slowing-down of Chinese economy. In contrast with the previous literature which largely confines its focus on the resource misallocation between inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and more efficient private firms under a closed economy setting, this paper re-examines the dynamics of the growth of Chinese economy from the perspective of an open economy. In particular, this paper incorporates heterogeneous outputs and relative prices into the model, where private firms are assumed to be the major exporters and the remaining large SOEs create increasing import demand from the home country. By adding downward sloping world demand curve, our paper predicts a turning point during the transition process, as the falling relative price for exports starts to constrain and eventually slow down the growth; SOEs begin to co-exist with private firms in the economy before it is fully transformed. Our paper provides a theoretical foundation in terms of understanding the current dynamics and institutional change of Chinese economy. Additionally, this paper also provides quantitative evidence on the effects of financial development during the China's economic transition process.     

Consumption externalities with endogenous time preference

This paper shows that in a model with inelastic labor supply, consumption externalities have impacts on stationary consumption and capital. The key element in observing the effects of consumption externalities on stationary consumption and capital is the endogeneity of the time preference rate, which depends on future-oriented resources rather than on private consumption. We conclude that when individuals experience jealousy, they become more impatient, leading to a lower level of capital stock and a higher level of consumption relative to those of the social optimum, while when they experience admiration, these relationships are reversed. We examine an optimal tax policy that replicates the socially optimal path in the centrally planned economy. Finally, using numerical analysis we explore how this economy evolves through time.      

STRATEGIC INTERACTION AND CATCHING UP

In this study, we prove that the strategic interaction among agents differing in initial wealth levels leads the poor to be able to catch up with the rich, which is not the case for the standard Ramsey model where the initial wealth differences perpetuate. Extending the analysis to account for relative wealth concern and the adjustment cost of consumption, the strategic interaction among agents is shown to affect not only the distribution of wealth in the long run but also the transitional dynamics substantially. In particular, we show that structurally very simple frameworks may lead to limit cycles thanks to the strategic interaction among agents in the economy.     

Pollution externalities,endogenous health and the speed of convergence in an endogenous growth model

Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model, we study the important link between pollution, health and growth during transition which has not received much attention in the existing theoretical literature on (semi-) endogenous growth. The focus of this paper is on the transitional dynamics behavior, with an emphasis both, on the asymptotic as well as on the average speed of convergence. We calibrate the model for a typical OECD country. On the basis of dynamic welfare calculations, which consider transitional dynamics effects, we show that welfare differences are most pronounced for an economy, which values health relatively highly and where the environmental tax change is more than just marginal. Hence, if an economy moves towards a more sustainable society, the policy maker should take into consideration transitional dynamic effects.     

Consumption externality, efficiency and optimal taxation in one-sector growth model

In an economy with consumption externalities, existing studies find that a competitive equilibrium is efficient in the long run and remains efficient in transitions if preferences are homothetic. This paper revisits the efficiency issue in an otherwise standard one-sector growth model where consumption externalities affect a utility via their effects on the time preference. We find that even if preferences are homothetic, the externality changes the marginal rate of substitution between now and future and leads to a disparity in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution between the centrally planned economy and a decentralized economy. As a result, a competitive equilibrium is inefficient in transition dynamics. We characterize an optimal tax/subsidy structure that enables the allocation in a decentralized economy to replicate the social optimum.     

Relative Wealth, Consumption Taxation, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the role of the relative wealth-induced status motive in affecting the neutrality of consumption taxation in an optimizing growth model. It is found that a key factor determining the validity of the neutrality of consumption taxation in both the level sense and the growth rate sense is the desire for relative wealth-induced social status. When individuals care about their relative wealth, a rise in consumption tax enhances the steady-state level of capital stock and consumption. Furthermore, if the production function takes a linear technology form as the engine of sustained growth, then increases in consumption taxation raise the economy's long-run growth rate. In addition, an optimal consumption tax policy provides full subsidies to consumption so as to induce the economy to achieve the social optimum and the optimal growth rate.     

Closing the Small Open Economy Model: A Demographic Approach

Closing the small open economy model has been a stumbling block in studying the dynamic evolution of such models. The typical procedure of equating the after‐tax return on traded bonds to the rate of time preference involves imposing an arbitrary and constraining knife‐edge condition. This paper replaces the infinitely lived representative agent framework with a plausible demographic structure. This yields a well‐behaved macrodynamic equilibrium without imposing any knife‐edge conditions. The equilibrium dynamics generated by the Rectangular survival function, characteristic of the Samuelson–Diamond model, closely track those corresponding to an empirically estimated survival function. However, the Blanchard survival function tracks the data poorly in terms of absolute levels, while the closeness of its relative dynamics (following a structural change) depends on the source of the structural change.     

Preference shifts and the change of consumption composition

While most of the literature explaining the change in consumption composition has focused on the role of relative prices and non-homothetic preferences, this paper examines the importance of preference shifts. I introduce dynamics in preferences and find that they play a relevant role and that their exclusion worsens model performance at least as much as the exclusion of allowing non-homothetic preferences.     

Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach

This paper considers the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on long-term individual lifetime consumption profiles. The framework for the analysis is a model that extends Strulik (2021) to include the government sector, where time preference is determined by individual health damage (deficit) distinct from normal aging. Thus, the health damage caused by COVID-19 changes the rate of time preference and consequently affects the Euler equation for consumption. Our theoretical contribution is the consistent incorporation of public health investment into the existing model to understand the effect of government measures against a pandemic. Numerical analysis based on this model is used to estimate changes in health status over time, trends in the rate of time preference, and individual lifetime consumption profiles, taking into account differences in age at the time of the pandemic and the nature of the government responses. Because the long-term negative economic impact would be enormous, we should avoid advocating for “living with COVID-19” without due consideration. The reopening of the economy must be accompanied by a commitment to the containment and elimination of infections with future novel coronaviruses.     

Credit constraints,growth and inequality dynamics

This paper examines how credit constraints affect the dynamics of wealth and thereby the dynamics of capital and output growth. We develop standard Ak growth models that display transitional dynamics, contrary to general belief, once the complete credit markets assumption is relaxed. The mechanism is that credit constraints make individual productivity differences persist, which in turn leads to the persistence of income inequality. The dynamics of inequality is jointly determined with the dynamics of aggregate capital. The economy thus passes through a transitional period of inequality, individual and aggregate capital dynamics before it converges to a long-run balanced growth path. The application of the model to the analysis of intergenerational mobility and inequality dynamics suggests substantial economic and policy significance. In particular, introducing credit constraints to the Barro Ak model, public investment could have an indirect impact on growth via its effect on inequality and mobility.     

The Doctoral Origins of Economics Faculty and the Education of New Economics Doctorates

For the open economy, the workhorse model in intermediate textbooks still is the Mundell-Fleming model, which basically extends the investment and savings, liquidity preference and money supply (IS-LM) model to open economy problems. The authors present a simple New Keynesian model of the open economy that introduces open economy considerations into the closed economy consensus version and that still allows for a simple and comprehensible analytical and graphical treatment. Above all, their model provides an efficient tool kit for the discussion of the costs and benefits of fixed and flexible exchange rates, which also was at the core of the Mundell-Fleming model.     

GROWTH AND BUBBLES WITH CONSUMPTION EXTERNALITIES*

This paper explores the role of consumption externalities in an overlapping generations economy with capital accumulation. If consumers in each generation are concerned with other agents’ consumption behaviours, there exist intergenerational as well as intragenerational consumption externalities. It is the presence of intergenreational consumption externalities that may produce fundamental effects both on equilibrium dynamics and on steady‐state characterization of the economy. This paper demonstrates this fact in the context of a simple model of endogenously growing, overlapping‐generations economy with or without asset bubbles.