Another look at the Tail Area Influence Function

A new way of computing the Tail Area Influence Function (TAIF) exactly is proposed and a new finite sample robustness measure, based on the TAIF, is introduced. The main properties of this robustness measure are also studied, for both finite and asymptotic sample sizes. Next, a very accurate approximation to the finite sample power function of a test is obtained; this is based on the TAIF plus an iterative procedure. The results are valid when there are no nuisance parameters.     

Saddlepoint approximations for the sum of independent non‐identically distributed binomial random variables

We discuss saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the sum of independent non‐identically distributed binomial random variables. We examine the accuracy of the saddlepoint methods for a sum of 10 binomials with different sets of parameter values. The numerical results indicate that the saddlepoint approximations provide very accurate estimates for the probability mass function and the right‐tail probabilities for the cumulative distribution function of the sum.     

A saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of the sum of independent non‐identically uniform random variables

Calculating the probability of the corresponding significance point is important for finite sample sizes. However, it is difficult to evaluate this probability when the sample sizes are moderate to large. Under these circumstances, consideration of a more accurate approximation for the distribution function is extremely important. Herein, we performed a saddlepoint approximation in the upper tails for the distribution of the sum of independent non‐identically uniform random variables under finite sample sizes. Saddlepoint approximation results were compared with those for a normal approximation. Additionally, the order of errors of the saddlepoint approximation was derived. © 2014 The Authors. Statistica Neerlandica © 2014 VVS.     

Functional coefficient instrumental variables models

We consider estimation of nonparametric structural models under a functional coefficient representation for the regression function. Under this representation, models are linear in the endogenous components with coefficients given by unknown functions of the predetermined variables, a nonparametric generalization of random coefficient models. The functional coefficient restriction is an intermediate approach between fully nonparametric structural models that are ill posed when endogenous variables are continuously distributed, and partially linear models over which they have appreciable flexibility. We propose two-step estimators that use local linear approximations in both steps. The first step is to estimate a vector of reduced forms of regression models and the second step is local linear regression using the estimated reduced forms as regressors. Our large sample results include consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. The high practical power of estimators is illustrated via both a Monte Carlo simulation study and an application to returns to education.     

Remarks on the strong law of large numbers for a triangular array of associated random variables

A strong law of large numbers for a triangular array of strictly stationary associated random variables is proved. It is used to derive the pointwise strong consistency of kernel type density estimator of the one-dimensional marginal density function of a strictly stationary sequence of associated random variables, and to obtain an improved version of a result by Van Ryzin (1969) on the strong consistency of density estimator for a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables.     

On the convolution of logistic random variables

An expression is obtained for the distribution of a convolution of independent and identically distributed logistic random variables by directly inverting the characteristic function. This distribution is shown to be closely approximated by a student'st distribution when both distribution are standardized. Moreover, by showing that some of the analytic simplicity and statistical properties that are manifest in the single logistic also obtain in the convolution, an application of the convolution as a dose-response curve in the bio-assay problem is suggested.     

Some remarks on the construction of independent identically distributed random variables,Markov chains and martingales

In this note, we make some remarks on the construction of sequences of independent identically distributed random variables and of Markov chains concretely on a probability space (Ω,A,P). We also show that there are non non-trivial martingales of exponential type.     

Volatility swaps and volatility options on discretely sampled realized variance

Volatility swaps and volatility options are financial products written on discretely sampled realized variance. Actively traded in over-the-counter markets, these products are often priced by continuously sampled approximations to simplify the computations. This paper presents an analytical approach to efficiently and accurately price discretely sampled volatility derivatives, under a general stochastic volatility model. We first obtain an accurate approximation for the characteristic function of the discretely sampled realized variance. This characteristic function is then applied to price discrete volatility derivatives through either semi-analytical pricing formulae (up to an inverse Fourier transform) or an efficient Fourier-cosine series method. Numerical experiments show that our approximation is more accurate in comparison to the approximations in the literature. We remark that although discretely sampled variance swaps and options are usually more expensive than their continuously sampled counterparts, discretely sampled volatility swaps are more prone to be cheaper than the continuously sampled counterparts. An analysis is then provided to explain why this is the case in general for realistic contract specifications and reasonable model parameters.     

On the Distribution of General Quadratic Functions in Normal Vectors

A representation in terms of independent standard normal variables tor the general quadratic form in normal variables in the univariate case, obtained by DIK and DE GUNST (1985), is extended to the multivariate situation. A representation for the quadratic function in normal vectors X'AX , where X is a random matrix with normally distributed elements and A a real symmetric matrix, is given in terms of independent and identically distributed central normal vectors. The representation is valid only when the covariance structure of X is of a special form, but all known results, especially necessary and sufficient conditions for X'AX to have a Wishart distribution, can easily be derived from it.     

Solving DSGE models with a nonlinear moving average

We propose a nonlinear infinite moving average as an alternative to the standard state space policy function for solving nonlinear DSGE models. Perturbation of the nonlinear moving average policy function provides a direct mapping from a history of innovations to endogenous variables, decomposes the contributions from individual orders of uncertainty and nonlinearity, and enables familiar impulse response analysis in nonlinear settings. When the linear approximation is saddle stable and free of unit roots, higher order terms are likewise saddle stable and first order corrections for uncertainty are zero. We derive the third order approximation explicitly, examine the accuracy of the method using Euler equation tests, and compare with state space approximations.     

Tendency towards normality of linear combinations of random variables

IfX andY are two random variables with the same means and variances, thenX is said to be nearer normal thanY if the absolute values of its cumulants are smaller than the corresponding cumulants ofY. Using this definition, it is shown that a linear combination of a finite number of independent identically distributed random variables is always nearer normal than its constituents, but that this is not necessarily true if not-identically distributed or not-independent variables are used. Some consequences of the results are reached for the testing of normality of time series and for the assumptions frequently made by social scientists about the distribution of their data.     

Distributional Properties of Record Values from the Geometric Distribution

Some distributional properties of the record values of non–identically distributed random variables having geometric distributions are discussed. Three theorems dealing with the characterization of the geometric distribution based on these distributional properties are presented. The unique minimum variance unbiased estimators of some functions of the parameters of the distribution and various predictors of the s–th record valued utilizing the first m(m相似文献   

Nonparametric stochastic frontiers: A local maximum likelihood approach

This paper proposes a new approach to handle nonparametric stochastic frontier (SF) models. It is based on local maximum likelihood techniques. The model is presented as encompassing some anchorage parametric model in a nonparametric way. First, we derive asymptotic properties of the estimator for the general case (local linear approximations). Then the results are tailored to a SF model where the convoluted error term (efficiency plus noise) is the sum of a half normal and a normal random variable. The parametric anchorage model is a linear production function with a homoscedastic error term. The local approximation is linear for both the production function and the parameters of the error terms. The performance of our estimator is then established in finite samples using simulated data sets as well as with a cross-sectional data on US commercial banks. The methods appear to be robust, numerically stable and particularly useful for investigating a production process and the derived efficiency scores.     

Specification diagnostics based on Laguerre alternatives for econometric models of duration

Score tests of the null hypothesis of exponentially distributed durations (conditional on regressors) against alternatives in a family of approximations to arbitrary distributions for non-negative random variables are developed. The test statistics take a simple, easily calculated and interpreted form. The alternatives considered are expansions of various orders in Laguerre polynomials. An economic model generating exponential unemployment duration is presented. The statistics are applied in a look at unemployment durations in the Denver Income Maintenance Experiment data.     

Decision theoretic estimation using record statistics

We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter θ of the shifted exponential distribution with unknown shift based on a set of observed records drawn from a sequential sample of independent and identically distributed random variables. Under a large class of bowl-shaped loss functions, the best affine equivariant estimator (BAEE) of θ is shown to be inadmissible. Two dominating procedures are proposed. A numerical study is performed to show the extent of risk reduction that the improved estimators provide over the BAEE.     

A saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of the sum of independent non‐identically beta random variables

The exact distribution of the sum of more than two independent beta random variables has not been known. Even in terms of approximations, only the normal approximation is known for the sum. Motivated by Murakami [Statistica Neerlandica, 2014, doi:10.1111/stan.12032], we derive here a saddlepoint approximation for the distribution of sum. An extensive simulation study shows that it always performs better than the normal approximation.     

Non-exchangeability of negatively dependent random variables

We compute the measure of non-exchangeability (with respect to the L ^∞-norm) for a pair of identically distributed continuous random variables that satisfy some negative dependence property, namely quadrant dependence or stochastic decreasingness.     

An application of the renewal theoretic selection principle: The first divisible sum

Summary This paper deals with the distribution of the first partial sum of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables which is divisible by some integerk>1. We give a formula for its characteristic function and obtain limit results fork. A new characterization of the geometric distribution is also given. The results are applicable to models such as periodically observed self-renewing aggregates.     

Afschatting van verdelingen van kwadratische vormen met toepassingen op aanpassingstoetsen voor normaliteit en exponentialiteit

Summary  In this paper a simple approximation is given for the distribution of the quadratic form

being a weighted sum of squares of independent, identically distributed standardized normal variates. Using the formulae, the Monte Carlo results concerning some goodness of fit tests for normality and exponentiality are verified and extended.     

The rate of convergence in distribution of the maxima

Abstract  Assume the normalized maxima, from an independent and identically distributed sequence of random variables, converge in distribution to a non-degenerate random variable with extreme value distribution G ( x ). We derive a pointwise rate for this convergence which holds for all n and x with G(x ) > 0. A closer examination of this result suggests how a uniform rate can be obtained.