Stock-Price Effects of Internet Buy-Sell Recommendations: The Motley Fool Case

The Motley Fool has attracted significant notoriety for stock market buy‐sell advice on the Internet. Across five different investment portfolios, Motley Fool buy recommendations appear to generate an average 1.62% rise in stock prices on the announcement day (0), and 2.40% returns over the announcement period (?1, +1). Sell recommendations seem to cause a ?1.49% announcement day return, and a ?3.33% announcement period return. Small cap growth stock buy recommendations for The Motley Fool's flagship Rule Breaker Portfolio are associated with returns of 3.66% on the announcement day, and a 6.15% return over the announcement period. These findings suggest herd‐like behavior among Internet investors, and that such announcements are more newsworthy than second‐hand buy‐sell recommendations published in traditional print and electronic media.     

Yes,The Value Line Enigma Is Still Alive: Evidence from Online Timeliness Rank Changes

Beginning June 9, 2005, Value Line started announcing its Timeliness changes online at 10:00 a.m. on Thursday, one day earlier than Friday noon's post‐delivery. We confirm that the Value Line effect still exists but shifts to Thursday in the Internet era. Unlike previous findings, the next‐day abnormal return after the announcement has disappeared, suggesting that the market efficiently priced the change. We find that a portfolio upgraded from rank 5 to 4 gains the highest cumulative abnormal return of 9.07% over a 50‐day window. Finally, we find that the post‐earnings announcement drift does not explain the Value Line enigma.     

The Timing and Substance of Divestiture Announcements: Individual,Simultaneous and Cumulative Effects

This paper examines differences in announcement day effects among firms engaged in voluntary sell-offs. While, on average, an initial sell-off announcement results in a significant positive excess return, not all divestiture announcements are accompanied by positive price movements. Dividing the sample into two subsamples based on whether the transaction price is announced shows that the announcement day effect is significantly positive for the price group but not statistically different from zero for the no-price group. In addition, a positive relation is found between the relative size of the sell-off and the announcement day return.     

我国上市公司高送转公告效应的实证研究

为检验上市公司定高送转预案公告发布对其股票价格的影响,本文以2009年至2010年沪深两市推出高送转预案的285家上市公司为样本,选取公告日前10日至公告日后20日为事件窗口,运用事件研究法对高送转公告效应进行实证研究。结果表明：中国股市具有明显的高送转公告效应,上市公司高送转预案公告发布前后股票具有显著的正价格效应,会产生持续的累计异常正收益;然而,由于信息不对称,部分投资者通常会提前获得有关高送转的内幕信息并提前买入,并以此获得可观的超额收益,而普通投资在公告发布后买入只能获得小部分的超额收益并且需要承担更大的风险。     

Managerial actions in response to a market downturn: valuation effects of name changes in the dot.com decline

We investigate stock price reactions to Internet-related name changes in a market downturn. In contrast to the Internet boom period, during which there was a surge of dot.com additions, in the bust period, there is a dramatic reduction in the pace of dot.com additions accompanied by a rapid increase in dot.com name deletions. Following the Internet “crash” of mid-2000, investors react positively to name changes for firms that remove dot.com from their name. This dot.com deletion effect produces cumulative abnormal returns on the order of 64% for the 60 days surrounding the announcement day. Our results add support to a growing body of literature that documents that investors are potentially influenced by cosmetic effects and that managers rationally time corporate actions to take advantage of these biases.     

Signalling power of special dividends in an imputation environment

The present study examines the impact of the announcement of special dividends for a sample of Australian companies over the period July 1989 to June 2002. The risk‐adjusted price reaction to special dividend announcements from the day before the announcement to the day after the announcement (day ?1 to day 1) is positive and statistically significant, averaging 3.67 per cent. Initial special dividend announcements (4.68 per cent) led to stronger price reaction than special dividend announcements that follow an earlier special dividend (1.51 per cent) in the previous year. The magnitude of price reactions to special dividend announcements is statistically related to the size of the special dividend, the existence of prior special dividend announcements, abnormal cash flow for the year ended after the special dividend announcement, the existence of dividend reinvestment plans (DRP) versus non‐DRP, and a preannouncement effect. Finally, we found strong support for the information content/signalling hypothesis for special dividend announcements that do not participate in DRP and limited support for those associated with DRP.     

Profit Warnings and Timing

We find that profit‐warning announcements elicit a strong negative market response that is not sensitive to timing the warning in advance of the earnings announcement. Share prices begin to adjust about five days before a profit warning, and the market response is not complete until about five days after the warning. The accumulated response over the 11‐day period ending five days after the announcement is ?21.7%. The profit warning effect over the two‐day announcement period is 32 times the valuation effect upon subsequent release of the actual earnings. There is no evidence of a reversal after this period, and therefore no sign that the market response is excessive.     

In- and out-of-the-money convertible bond calls: Signaling or price pressure?

Convertible bond calls typically cause significant reactions in equity prices. The empirical research largely finds negative and positive announcement effects for the in-the-money and the out-of-the-money calls respectively. However, this research has difficulty distinguishing between the two main theoretical explanations: the signaling effect and the price pressure effect. In this paper, we differentiate between these two effects by using a unique data set of the in- and the out-of-the-money calls in the United States during the period of 1993 to 2007. We find that the announcement effect for the in-the-money call is predominantly explained by the subsequent order imbalances; and the stock market's reaction is spread over an entire trading day, which is consistent with the price pressure effect. In contrast, the announcement effect for the out-of-the-money call is driven by the size of the called convertible bond; and the stock market's reaction is almost immediate, which is consistent with the signaling effect.     

The Wealth and Information Effects of Insurers' Open Market Stock Repurchase Announcements

This article examines the use of an increasingly popular method of cash disbursement in the insurance industry: stock repurchase programs. Using a sample of stock repurchase announcements between 1981 and 1997, we examine the motivation for stock repurchase, estimate the market reaction to the repurchase announcement, and evaluate the magnitude of the reaction as it relates to particular insurance industry and firm characteristics. We examine the abnormal returns around the announcement day and find a significant positive wealth effect associated with repurchase announcements—a result that is consistent with that of other studies of both nonfinancial and financial firms. However, we suspect that the nature of the insurance product and the highly regulated status of the insurance industry might serve to mitigate the magnitude of an announcement effect. In fact, we find that the effect for all insurers is smaller than that obtained in samples of industrial firms. Finally, we examine the relationships between the magnitude of the announcement effect and various firm characteristics and test the significance of information signaling and Jensen's free cash flow theories in the insurance setting.     

Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements

The objective of this study is to investigate factors that influence investor information demand around earnings announcements and to provide insights into how variation in information demand impacts the capital market response to earnings. The Internet is one channel through which public information is disseminated to investors and we propose that one way that investors express their demand for public information is via Google searches. We find that abnormal Google search increases about two weeks prior to the earnings announcement, spikes markedly at the announcement, and continues at high levels for a period after the announcement. This finding suggests that information diffusion is not instantaneous with the release of the earnings information, but rather is spread over a period surrounding the announcement. We also find that information demand is positively associated with media attention and news, and is negatively associated with investor distraction. When investors search for more information in the days just prior to the announcement, preannouncement price and volume changes reflect more of the upcoming earnings news and there is less of a price and volume response when the news is announced. This result suggests that, when investors demand more information about a firm, the information content of the earnings announcement is partially preempted.     

MARKET EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN THE STANDARD & POOR'S 500 INDEX

This paper examines the impact on stock returns of changes in the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index. S&P states that firms are not added to or deleted from the index for valuation reasons but rather to maintain or improve the index's representative character. Results from market response tests indicate that stocks added to (deleted from) the index since 1975 experience a significant positive (negative) announcement day excess return. No announcement effect occurs in S&P changes prior to 1976. These announcement effects may be explained by a price-pressure hypothesis or by an information effect. Results of tests conducted to isolate which of these phenomena is present are reported.     

The Information in Management's Expected Earnings Report Date: A Day Late, a Penny Short

Since 1995, managers of thousands of firms have voluntarily disclosed the expected date of their firm's next quarterly earnings announcement to Thomson Financial Services Inc. These disclosures are approximately 500% more accurate than the simple time–series expected report dates used in prior accounting research. These disclosures are also informative. On average, managers who miss their own expected date eventually report earnings that fall about one penny per share below consensus forecasts for each day of delay. Investors respond by sending the price of late–announcing stocks down at the missed expected report date and continue to send them down as the reporting delay lengthens, consistent with our "day late, penny short" result. Despite this, we find that the market response at the time earnings are announced still depends on whether the announcement is early, on time, or late relative to the firm's own expected report date.     

A simple mechanism for financial bubbles: time-varying momentum horizon

Building on the notion that bubbles are transient self-fulfilling prophecies created by positive feedback mechanisms, we construct the simplest continuous price process whose expected returns and volatility are functions of momentum only. The momentum itself is measured by a simple continuous moving average of past prices over a given time horizon. We introduce a simple dynamics of the time horizon used by the representative investor, which is motivated by the race of trend following agents to forerun their competitors. We provide the full set of solutions, which includes an explosive regime where the price and momentum explodes stochastically in finite time to infinity, transient price dynamics escaping to infinity and recurrent behaviors, where the momentum remains either strictly positive or undergoes instantaneous reflections at the origin. The proposed price generating process produces price dynamics that are in agreement with the main qualitative properties of empirical financial time series. Moreover, it produces realistic regime shifts between non bubble and bubble regimes. We construct a quasi-likelihood methodology to calibrate the model to empirical financial time series, which is applied to an Internet index and a ‘brick and mortar’ index, over the period of the dotcom bubble and its subsequent crash, from Jan. 1998 to Dec. 2002. The Wilks test of nested hypotheses shows a very strong skill in diagnosing the bubble of the Internet index and in disqualifying a bubble in the ‘brick and mortar’ index.     

资本市场国际影响力提升效应研究——来自A股纳入明晟(MSCI)新兴市场指数的证据

2018年5月15日,首批纳入明晟(MSCI)新兴市场指数的A股股票名单正式公布。我们发现,被纳入MSCI的股票(标的股票)在公告日前后有显著为正的累计超额收益。相较于主要特征相似的匹配股票,标的股票纳入MSCI后的分析师评级有显著提升。进一步研究表明,在公告日前后融资(融券)交易量显著上升(下降),而换手率没有明显变化,并且净融资交易与公告效应显著正相关。本文的发现表明,A股纳入MSCI这一事件具有明显的信息含量,传递了有关企业前景的正面信息,并促使本地市场聪明投资者进行更活跃的交易,这对促进价格发现、促成价值投资具有一定的推动作用。     

Price and volume effects associated with derivative warrant issuance on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong

This paper examines the price and volume effects of underlying stocks around the announcement date of derivative warrants issued in Hong Kong. In general, the results indicate that underlying stocks are subject to extra buying pressure a few days before the new derivative warrant issuance, which is consistent with our hypothesis about the hedging effect created by the merchant banks that initiate the warrant issuance. Since the prices of underlying stocks peak on the first day after the warrant announcement and are stable thereafter, the information effect associated with the warrant issuance appears to be weak and does not last long. In addition, we find that underlying stocks have abnormal increases in price and volume during the last 5 minutes of trading on the warrant issuance day. This might be due to investors’ buying behavior precipitated by information leakage about the successful warrant issuance and/or to the price manipulation by merchant banks in order to attain a better payoff from the warrant issuing business.     

INTRADAY CHANGES IN TARGET FIRMS' SHARE PRICE AND BID-ASK QUOTES AROUND TAKEOVER ANNOUNCEMENTS

This paper documents changes in share prices, bid-ask spreads, and quote sizes for target firms during the day a takeover proposal is announced. The mean 21.2 percent announcement-day return consists primarily of a 19.5 percent return at the announcement. There is little evidence that spreads increase before the announcement, except when trading is suspended because of an order imbalance. Quote sizes show some sign of decreasing just before the announcement. The quoted bid-ask spread and size increase immediately after the announcement, but spreads quickly return to normal.     

An Anatomy of the “S&P Game”: The Effects of Changing the Rules

This study analyzes the effects of changes in S&P 500 index composition from January 1986 through June 1994, a period during which Standard and Poor's began its practice of preannouncing changes five days beforehand. The new announcement practice has given rise to the “S&P game” and has altered the way stock prices react. We find that prices increase abnormally from the close on the announcement day to the close on the effective day. The overall increase is greater than under the old announcement policy although part of the increase reverses after the stock is included in the index.     

Asset pricing: A tale of two days

We show that asset prices behave very differently on days when important macroeconomic news is scheduled for announcement. In addition to significantly higher average returns for risky assets on announcement days, return patterns are much easier to reconcile with standard asset pricing theories, both cross-sectionally and over time. On such days, stock market beta is strongly related to average returns. This positive relation holds for individual stocks, for various test portfolios, and even for bonds and currencies, suggesting that beta is after all an important measure of systematic risk. Furthermore, a robust risk–return trade-off exists on announcement days. Expected variance is positively related to future aggregated quarterly announcement day returns, but not to aggregated non-announcement day returns. We explore the implications of our findings in the context of various asset pricing models.     

The Chinese Stock Dividend Puzzle

In this paper, we examine the announcement effects of dividends with an emphasis on stock dividends in China's capital market. We find that dividend-paying stocks exhibit significantly positive abnormal returns while non-dividend-paying stocks show a negative announcement effect. Further, we document that the cumulative abnormal returns for pure stock dividends and combined dividends are the main drivers of this announcement effect. In contrast, pure cash dividend stocks experience no significant price run-up before announcement. The significant announcement effect of stock dividends is robust to controlling the earnings surprise effect. We offer some discussion of the possible explanations.     

The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns

This paper examines the equity market reaction to the monthly release of Australian consumer sentiment news. Our results indicate that consumer sentiment has valuable information content. Further, we document a version of the “negativity effect” (from the psychology literature) in which, upon announcement of bad (good) sentiment news, the equity market experiences a significant negative (no) announcement day effect. Notably, we find that the market recovers from the bad news shock relatively quickly post-announcement. The results are robust to a broad range of additional tests.