用引力模型分析中国对外直接投资的区位选择

本文选取对中国进行直接投资的 32个国家 (地区 )为样本 ,把这些样本国的经济规模、人均国民收入与中国的地理距离等变量纳入引力模型 ,分析国家之间的国际直接投资流量与经济变量之间存在的相关关系 ,并揭示国际直接投资区位分布的规律。结果表明 ,投资国与东道国的经济规模总和、人均国民收入水平及双边贸易量与两国间的国际直接投资流量呈正相关 ,投资国与东道国的经济规模和经济水平越相似 ,两国之间的国际直接投资流量越大。这一结论在一定程度上解释了国际直接投资水平流动的趋势。投资国与东道国的距离与国际直接流量和区位分布呈显著负相关 ,这表明地理位置是影响国际直接投资流向和分布的重要因素。本文通过引力模型求出样本国家与中国国际直接投资的引力系数 ,并用引力系数就中国对外直接投资的区位选择进行分析。     

文化距离和国际直接投资流向：S型曲线假说

文化距离和国际直接投资流向的关系一直是学术界研究的热点问题,并且存在着“文化距离悖论”。本文在文化距离所产生的“外来者劣势”和“外来者收益”的基础上建立了新的理论框架,以此来分析文化距离和国际直接投资流向之间的复杂非线性关系。1993-2006年49个世界重要经济体在29个OECD成员国的国际直接投资数据表明,文化距离和国际直接投资流向之间存在着水平S型曲线关系。这一研究结果能够较好地解释文化距离和国际直接投资流向之间的“文化距离悖论”。     

基于引力模型的语言距离对贸易流量影响的实证分析——来自中美两国的数据

选取并处理了预科生的留学成绩数据,以此测度出两国的语言距离。把语言距离作为一个重要变量引入引力模型,实证研究语言距离对国际贸易量的影响程度,这是对引力模型实证研究的重要进展。实证结果显示:引入语言距离之后,引力模型的各种假说依然成立,实证结果有效。GDP是影响国际贸易流量的决定因素。在其他条件不变的情况下,两国的语言距离越大,两国的贸易流量越小,两者呈负相关关系。因此加强两国文化交流是必要的政策之举。     

中国对外直接投资决定因素实证研究——基于东道国国家特征

近年来,包括中国在内的发展中国家或经济体对外直接投资的迅速发展引起了人们广泛的关注。本文利于引力模型和商务部公布的分国别对外直接投资的流量和存量数据,试图检验直接投资理论中所提及的东道国的国家特征对我国对外直接投资的影响。结果发现,市场规模、经济发展水平、两国间距离、共同的语言文化环境和地理位置相邻对吸引我国直接投资有正面的影响。     

东亚双边出口贸易流量与潜力:贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚1995-2004年面板数据建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚区域内出口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,经济规模、中国-中国香港地区更紧密经贸关系(CEPA)、中国-东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)、经济制度、经济发展水平差距、国际直接投资、国家间地理距离和金融危机是东亚双边出口贸易流量的主要影响因素。     

中国对美出口与美在华投资关系探讨

国际商品贸易与外商直接投资都是商品和生产要素在国际间流动的结果,具有十分密切的联系.中国和美国分别是世界上最大的发展中国家和发达国家,两国之间的投资和贸易典型地体现了发达国家对发展中国家的直接投资与贸易的关系.     

日本对西欧开展直接投资决定因素的实证分析

以日本对西欧发达经济体的直接投资额为因变量，将经济规模、出口额、人口、投资环境等因素作为自变量引入引力模型之中，利用引力模型对2008年日本向西欧各发达经济体直接投资情况进行计量经济学的分析，结果显示GDP、出口额、人口、人均国民收入等经济变量都能较好地解释日本对西欧发达经济体直接投资的地域分布情况。其中GDP、出口与日本对外直接投资流出量呈正相关关系，人口、人均国民收入与日本对外直接投资流出量呈负相关关系。     

从引力空间模型看对外直接投资区位选择

跨国公司对外直接投资的区位选择问题一直受各国的普遍关注与研究。本文在引力空间模型综述的基础上,运用引力模型对投资的区位选择进行了实证分析。最后对中国企业“走出去”的区位选择提出了政策性建议。     

能源对外直接投资的进口贸易效应与类型甄别——基于结构式引力模型的系统GMM估计

文章根据2005~2013年中国能源对外投资与能源进出口贸易数据,构造结构式水平型与垂直型投资引力模型,运用系统广义矩估计法(GMM),实证检验了中国能源对外直接投资的进口贸易效应,并依据模型假设对能源投资的类型予以甄别。研究结果表明:总体上中国能源对外直接投资促进了能源进口贸易,且贸易量与中国及贸易伙伴国的GDP显著正相关,与地理距离显著负相关,与双边GDP之和(市场支付能力)弱负相关,与相对要素禀赋显著正相关;中国对高收入国家进行能源直接投资产生负向进口贸易效应即替代关系,而对非高收入国家产生正向进口贸易效应即互补关系;整体上中国能源对外直接投资表现为垂直分割生产型投资,其中对高收入国家的能源直接投资显著为垂直型投资,对非高收入国家则兼有水平型和垂直型投资特征。     

我国企业对外直接投资的区位选择研究

企业在进行对外直接投资的过程中，首先要做出正确的区位选择，这直接关系到企业的国际生产布局。但从我国企业对外直接投资的现状来看，区位选择问题常常被忽视，而使得投资利润较低甚至失败。本文基于我国企业对外直接投资区位选择的现状与特点，对区位选择的环境进行了分析，并通过引力模型对投资区位的选择进行了实证研究，提出了相应的对策建议，对我国企业对外直接投资区位选择提供了一定的参考。     

Does Korea follow Japan in foreign aid? Relationships between aid and foreign investment

Korea, an emerging donor country, largely considers its economic relations to recipients when allocating its aid. Such practices were preceded by Japan before the 1990s. We expect those similar practices between the two countries will make resemblance in aid outcomes. On a macro-level, we show similarities in aid allocations by type, region, income, and sector. The similarities are ascertained also at a micro-level by our statistical analysis on the relationships between aid and FDI. The analysis based on the FDI gravity model and panel dynamic system GMM estimation shows that only aids from Korea and Japan create more inflow of FDI into their respective recipient developing countries. Those are contrasted with other donors’ aids, which are not related to FDI or the substitute for FDI.     

Heterogeneous effects of bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are an increasingly used policy instrument to encourage FDI inflows, particularly inflows into developing countries. In this paper we estimate a gravity model of FDI flows from a sample of OECD countries to a broader sample of developing economies, examining the impact of BITs on these flows. BITs are signed between highly heterogeneous country-pairs, with important differences found in terms of the institutional and economic distance between BIT signatories. These differences may help explain the mixed results on the effects of BITs on FDI flows in the existing literature, with our exploration of non-linearities in this relationship suggesting that the effects of BITs are increasing in the difference in GDP and GDP per capita between source and host. BITs appear to have no impact upon FDI flows for country-pairs that are too dissimilar in terms of the strength of their political institutions.     

Understanding bilateral FDI flows in developing Asia

Unlike trade flows, there has been little to no detailed examination of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Asian economies. This paper uses bilateral FDI flows data to investigate trends in intra-Asian FDI flows over the period 1990–2005. It employs an augmented gravity model to identify the main determinants of intra-Asian FDI flows. Possible drivers of FDI flows, including transactional and informational distance (proxied by distance), real sector variables, financial variables and quality of institutions are examined.     

日本在亚洲对外直接投资的地域分布研究

当前日本对外直接投资研究文献多侧重于跨过公司的经济动机,往往忽略了投资所在地的社会、经济以及地理等因素的综合影响。根据古典引力理论和地缘经济学中的经济潜力观点,社会、经济及地理等多种因素影响了对外直接投资决策。实证分析结果表明,若干社会及地缘经济变量能够较好地解释日本在亚洲的对外直接投资的地域分布。     

New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?

In this paper we analyse the effect that the euro has had on trade using a gravity model for 28 countries and covering the period 1990–2013. Our gravity specification includes time-varying fixed effects, correcting any possible bias that may arise from multilateral resistance variables or unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. Additionally, we explore the potential complementarity or substitution relationship between FDI and trade by including FDI inward and outward stocks in the specification. The time period in the dataset covers the creation and evolution of the European Monetary Union (EMU), starting from the introduction of notes and coins and including the recent economic crisis. Overall, our results show a positive effect of the EMU on trade and reveal the existence of a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Japan's outward FDI potential

While Japan's outward FDI stock is historically high, it is not necessarily clear whether there is untapped growth potential, given the economic size of Japan and that of partner countries. This paper examines whether Japan's actual outward FDI stock is high or low relative to the FDI predicted by the gravity model using the outward FDI patterns of all OECD nations, which we call counterfactual FDI. The results indicate that the ratio of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI is the highest among the OECD countries as of the year 2015. The regional distribution of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI favors Southeast Asian nations, South Africa and the US. These results imply that Japan has no unrealized potential for outward FDI.     

Democracy and foreign direct investment at the industry level: evidence for US multinationals

Theories of multinational enterprises emphasize that foreign direct investment (FDI) is undertaken in different industries for different reasons, yet studies of the effects of democracy on FDI most commonly use aggregate-level FDI data. This paper evaluates US FDI outflows to 15 industries (eight manufacturing, seven nonmanufacturing) in 54 countries in a linear dynamic panel-data gravity FDI model using a “system” generalized method of moments estimator and three widely used democracy indicators. At the aggregate-level, we estimate a positive effect of democracy on FDI, consistent with most prior studies. At the industry level, we estimate larger positive effects of democracy on FDI for service than manufacturing industries, particularly for finance and insurance and information, and negative effects for mining and oil and gas extraction.     

Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross‐Border Flows in and out of China

This paper examines the impact of cultural distance in general and the Confucius Institute Network in particular on cross‐border flows of tourists, goods and investment in and out of China. We estimate a panel gravity model of inbound and outbound flows between 2004 and 2012. We find that the presence of Confucius Institute(s) in the source country increases inbound tourism and equity flows and outbound export and FDI flows for China, while other measures of cultural distance have less of an impact.     

Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective

The ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) is a significant step in regional economic integration for both China and the ASEAN countries. While analysis of the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) most commonly focuses on the trade effects, the closeness of the link between trade and investment implies that the effect of an FTA on foreign direct investment (FDI) is also potentially significant. FTAs may stimulate FDI through the effects of market expansion and vertical fragmentation, while they may also reduce FDI through a plant rationalization effect. The overall effect of an FTA on FDI flows is an empirical question. This paper examines the impact of ACFTA on FDI flows through an econometric model that captures the influence of East Asian production networks on FDI, which we expect to be an important explanatory factor. The model finds that ACFTA has a significant and positive effect on FDI flows. A brief survey of the theoretical literature on the welfare and other related effects of FDI serves to emphasize that the extent to which individual member countries of the ACFTA will benefit from this increase in FDI will depend in important ways on the policies pursued in each country.