Revisiting measure of R&D spillovers: empirical evidence on OECD countries and industries

Using data for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over 29 years for 28 industries, this paper estimates industry-wise research and development (R&D) spillovers from the largest R&D investors and the most R&D-intensive industries that contribute 80% of global R&D. In doing so, it tests several assumptions made in the literature, and data rejecting them, proposes a methodology on R&D return estimation devoid of these assumptions. Results show that R&D has substantial spillovers, justifying R&D support policy. Each dollar of R&D generates about 29 cents in spillovers domestically and 4 cents in foreign countries. However, both intra- and inter-industry spillovers vary by industries, implying that the policy of supporting each R&D dollar uniformly across industries is suboptimal. Contrary to industry heterogeneity, the R&D spillovers from an industry do not vary substantially across countries, suggesting that optimal R&D policy across OECD countries might be uniform. An industry-by-industry technology matrix shows that sometimes an idea generates a greater impact on other industries than where it is generated.     

Tax cuts and enterprises’ R&D intensity: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

This paper studies the impact of tax cuts on enterprises’ R&D intensity. We use a natural experiment involving China’s business tax changing to value-added tax (“BT to VAT”) to identify any causality. The results reveal that this tax reform has prompted enterprises to increase their research and development (R&D) investment. Specifically, a stronger ability to transfer tax, results in this change having a more significant promotional effect on enterprises’ R&D intensity. Further analysis demonstrates that firms with different ownership types and in different industries respond differently to the “BT to VAT” policy. Our findings are only significant for non-state-owned and other modern service enterprises. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical basis for detailed analyses of the effects of “BT to VAT” policy, particularly the government’s subsequent improvement to the tax reform policy, to further stimulate enterprise investments in R&D as well as industrial upgrading.     

R&D policy in a vertically related industry

In this paper, we analyze the effectiveness of public policy aimed to stimulate business-performed R&D in a vertically related market. We examine the role of an R&D active upstream supplier in a four-stage R&D model, where we incorporate public funding. The considered policy instrument is direct funding of firms’ R&D efforts. We calculate the optimal policies and show that they have a positive impact on firms’ R&D investments. From a welfare point of view, it is optimal to differentiate the subsidy rates between the upstream and the downstream markets. Competition in the product market leads to a higher subsidy rate to the upstream supplier than to the downstream firms. When concentration is high in the downstream market, the optimal solution is an R&D subsidy for these firms, otherwise the optimal solution is an R&D tax for the downstream firms.     

Trade-related R&D Spillovers in Vietnamese Manufacturing

ABSTRACT

This study aims to examine how Vietnamese manufacturing could benefit from R&D investment locally and from OECD countries through trade during a period marked with major trade liberalisations. Using the industry-level data during 2000–2009, it finds that the foreign R&D has accounted for the most part of the R&D spillovers in the sector, with a larger proportion earning from the other foreign industries’ R&D. The domestic industries’ own R&D has improved the sector’s total factor productivity, but in a relatively smaller magnitude compared to the foreign sources. In examining the localised effects of R&D spillovers in Vietnamese manufacturing, the results reiterate the important roles of trade-embedded foreign R&D spillovers from Japan, the US, South Korea, and Germany in the sector’s total factor productivity growth. These findings altogether give support to foreign technology diffusion as a major conduit for growth prospects in Vietnamese manufactures.     

Mergers and innovation: evidence from a panel of US firms*

Mergers lead to larger firms and a less competitive market structure, but their effects on innovation are not clear. Mergers may improve innovation incentives by promoting economies of scope and scale, R&D activities, and increasing the ability to deal with uncertainties. However, mergers may also discourage innovation by reducing competition, increasing costs, and decreasing production and R&D efficiencies. In this study, we investigate merger impacts on innovation using a panel data consisting of four different data sets on publicly traded US manufacturing firms from 1980 to 2003. Our proxy for innovation is based on citation-weighted patent stocks. In our estimation model, we control for endogeneity using instrumental variables and factors such as market share, size, industry, and time. We find that mergers are positively and significantly correlated with firms’ innovation. Our findings also indicate that merger effect on innovation is heterogeneous across industries, increases with market share, and is greater in the long run. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of innovation.     

Self-fulfilling prophecies in the quality ladders economy

If R&D difficulty increases as it accumulates, as recent evidence suggests, then there is a value in the diversification of the aggregate R&D efforts over the whole range of industries in the economy. However, this paper proves that the quality ladders models allow for self-fulfilling prophecies to divert R&D from an arbitrary number of sectors, with potentially dramatic effects on the dynamics of industry structure and on the long-run aggregate growth performance. Moreover, in developing countries, perfect markets might allow stagnant monopolies to resist despite the removal of fundamental entry barriers to dynamic competition. This kind of coordination failure implies potentially strong effects of socio-cultural factors on growth and suggests a positive role for public R&D policy even in a framework of semi-exogenous growth.     

Does market competition promote innovation efficiency in China’s high-tech industries?

ABSTRACT

Despite extensive discussion about the relationship between market competition and innovation performance, the impact of market competition on the innovation efficiency of high-technology industries in a transitional economy is still unclear. The article is based on panel data of 17 subsectors of China’s high-tech industry spanning the 2001–2016 period. Using stochastic the frontier analysis model, we empirically test the impact of market competition on two-stage innovation efficiency from the perspective of the industry. The results indicate that market competition and firm scale have positive and significant effects on the efficiency of two-stage innovation, the effects of industry export intensity and government intervention on R&D efficiency are negative, but the effects are different for the efficiency of the commercialisation of technology. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, this paper compares the trends and the differences between R&D efficiency and commercialisation efficiency, and then uses cluster analysis to reclassify China’s high-tech industries into three categories, thus revealing the disconnect and imbalance within China’s high-tech industries. At the end of the article, we present some possible policy recommendations.     

Trade and the Transmission of Technology

This paper integrates earlier studies on the link of productivity and research and development (R&D) in different industries of a closed economy with the more recent emphasis on R&D-driven growth and international trade in open economies. In this framework, technology in the form of product designs is transmitted to other industries, both domestically as well as internationally, through trade in differentiated intermediate goods. I present empirical results based on a new industry-level data set that covers more than 65 percent of the worlds manufacturing output and most of the worlds R&D expenditures between 1970 and 1991. The analysis considers productivity effects from R&D in the domestic industry itself, from R&D in other domestic industries, as well as in the same and other foreign industries. I estimate strong productivity effects both from own R&D spending and R&D conducted elsewhere. The contribution of R&D in the industry itself is about 50 percent in this sample. Domestic R&D in other industries is the source of 30 percent of the productivity increases, and the remaining 20 percent are due to R&D expenditures in foreign industries.     

R&D policy with layers of economic integration

This paper examines whether the optimal unilateral R&D policy for an open economy is a subsidy or a tax. It constructs a general equilibrium model with three successive layers of international integration: (a) trade in goods, (b) trade in technologies with international R&D spillovers and (c) internationally-coordinated R&D policy. Trade in technologies introduces the possibility that an R&D subsidy will have such strong, negative terms-of-trade effects that it harms domestic welfare. Numerical simulations of the OECD show this is a possibility for the US and Japan. With international R&D spillovers a domestic R&D subsidy may reduce domestic innovation.     

Strategic R&D Co-operatives

Although firms have many reasons for investing in R&D, still market forces are believed to be inadequate for directing an optimal amount of funds towards R&D investments. An important tool for diminishing this failure on markets for R&D is to sustain R&D co-operatives, a policy instrument recently (re)discovered by public authorities. For quite some time the formal economics literature did not pay substantial attention to this policy, but with the appearance of the seminal analysis of d’Aspremont & Jacquemin (1988) this silence was abruptly disturbed.The objective of the present paper is to develop a general version of the d’Aspremont & Jacquemin (1988) model which still allows for the calculation of explicit equilibria and therefore enables a comparison between co-operative and non-co-operative R&D. While pursuing this objective an analysis is presented which encompasses several recent contributions to the literature.Having established this general characterization of a market with possible strategic R&D co-operatives the arguments against and in favour of this industrial policy are evaluated. It appears that there are circumstances when these strategic alliances could indeed be socially beneficial. However there remains always the threat of firms increasing their market power by extending the co-operative agreement to the product market.     

Optimal Privatization and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Economy

This paper analyzes the growth and welfare effects of the privatization of public firms in a Schumpeterian growth model. Two alternative definitions of privatization are proposed in our model. The first is the ratio of mixed R&D firms’ equity shares owned by the household, which is dubbed vertical privatization. The second is the number of unmixed R&D firms, which is called horizontal privatization. We find that, under both definitions, privatization is beneficial to economic growth while the effect of privatization on social welfare is ambiguous. Accordingly, our analysis reveals that a partial privatization could be an optimal policy. Moreover, we also discuss how the extent of patent protection is related to optimal privatization.     

A Schumpeterian growth model with random quality improvements

A common assumption in the Schumpeterian growth literature is that the innovation size is constant and identical across industries. This is in contrast with the empirical evidence which shows that: (1) innovation size is not identical across industries and (2) the size distribution of profit returns from innovation is highly skewed toward the low value side, with a long tail on the high value side. In the present paper, we develop a Schumpeterian growth model that is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we assume that when a firm innovates, the size of its quality improvement is the result of a random draw from a Pareto distribution. This enables us to extend the class of quality-ladder growth models to encompass firm heterogeneity. We study the policy implications of this new setup numerically and find that it is optimal to heavily subsidize R&D for plausible parameter values. Although it is optimal to tax R&D for some parameter values, this case only occurs when the steady-state rate of economic growth is very low.     

Testing for the Ratchet Effect in the R&D Tax Credit

Many countries have implemented the R&D tax credit to encourage firms’ R&D spending. The design of the tax credit is important for its effectiveness. Some countries such as Korea, Taiwan, Japan, France and the US have employed an incremental R&D tax credit system. The US case that made a major change in its design from the moving average base to the fixed base in calculating the credit provides us with a natural experiment to measure the effectiveness of the tax credit from the perspective of the ratchet effect. By applying an endogenous switching regression model to US manufacturing firm data, we attempt to measure the ratchet effect of R&D credit on firms’ R&D investment. According to the empirical results, the R&D tax credit policy has been effective with the price elasticity, –1.818, for the qualified firms, and the re-design of R&D credit improved the positive impact of R&D credit. This provides some policy implication for those countries that adopted an incremental credit system. In addition, our result suggests the existence of selectivity bias in the previous literature.     

Optimal research and development and the cost of business cycles

While research and development (R&D) investment has been procyclical in the post-war period, recent literature suggests that the optimal path for R&D is countercyclical, and that the economy would be better off by subsidizing R&D in recessions. The objective of this paper is to analyze the welfare effects of distortions in the intertemporal allocation of R&D resources and to compare diverse policy interventions so as to improve social welfare. To this end, we introduce a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Schumpeterian endogenous growth that is capable of explaining the observed procyclicality of R&D. Our results show that the cost of business cycles is lower in the decentralized economy with procyclical R&D than in the efficient allocation with countercyclical R&D. This is because the suboptimal propagation of shocks in the decentralized equilibrium offsets some of the existing steady-state distortions. In this second-best context, countercyclical R&D subsidies have no positive effect on welfare. In contrast, fiscal policies aimed at restoring the optimal steady-state produce large welfare gains.     

In-house R&D,external R&D and cooperation breadth in Spanish manufacturing firms: is there a synergistic effect on innovation outputs?

ABSTRACT

This study explores the nature of relationship between in-house R&D, external R&D and cooperation breadth and their joint impact on patent counts as well as technological, product and process, innovations in Spanish manufacturing firms. With regards to patent counts, empirical findings from a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator suggest a complementarity effect of internal and external R&D activities conditional on the breadth of R&D cooperation. Concerning technological innovation, results from dynamic random-effects probit models indicate no synergistic effects. In addition, we find evidence of persistence of all three innovation output measures. Our results suggest policy implications in relation to strengthening firms’ absorptive capacity that could have long-run effects.     

Research and development and trade policies for product innovation in the presence of foreign competition

This paper examines two policy instruments — a matching grant and import tariffs — for encouraging research and development (R&D) in product innovation by a domestic firm when it faces foreign competition. We do so by developing a theoretical model of product innovation where R&D effort is endogenous and its outcome uncertain. We examine the effects of a reduction in import tariffs on private expenditure on R&D, on public support for such R&D, and on total R&D expenditure. We find that in response to a reduction in import tariffs, the domestic firm always reduces its private R&D investments, but the total level of R&D expenditure (i.e., including public support) might go up depending on the level of tariffs. In particular, we find that it will go up if the initial level of tariff is higher than a critical level. When tariff is endogenous, we find that the socially optimal level of tariffs is positive. One finding that is of particular interest is that supporting private attempts to product innovate in the form of a matching grant program leads to a socially optimal level of product R&D.     

International R&D Rivalry with Spillovers and Policy Cooperation in R&D Subsidies and Taxes

Abstract

We have investigated non-cooperative and jointly optimal R&D policies in the framework of Spencer & Brander (1983) in the presence of R&D spillovers. When R&D activities are strategic substitutes and the R&D game exhibits a positive externality, the result of Spencer & Brander (1983) reverses: the non-cooperative policy is a tax while the jointly optimal policy is a subsidy. Moreover, when R&D activities are strategic complements, the usual result of the prisoners' dilemma in the strategic subsidy game does not hold, implying that a welfare intervention is preferable over laissez-faire. When spillovers are sufficiently large, the joint welfare increases with subsidies being higher than those under non-cooperation.     

R&D and productivity: evidence from large UK establishments with substantial R&D activities

ABSTRACT

We use Office for National Statistics' micro data for large UK establishments in the production industries in the period 1997–2008 to study the relationship between their productivity and the presence of substantial R&D activities, either at the production unit itself, or at other UK reporting units owned by the same enterprise group. We estimate that total factor (revenue) productivity is on average about 14% higher at the establishments which have substantial R&D themselves, compared to those with no R&D. Among the establishments with no R&D themselves, we estimate that productivity is on average about 9% higher at those which belong to enterprise groups which do have substantial R&D elsewhere in the UK in the same sub-sector. For the establishments with substantial R&D themselves, we also estimate a significant positive relationship between current productivity and past R&D expenditure using dynamic specifications which allow for both establishment-specific ‘fixed effects’ and a serially correlated error component.     

Optimal patent length and breadth in an economy with creative destruction and non-diversifiable risk

In this paper, I examine the optimal patent shape in an economy in which R&D firms innovate and imitate, households face non-diversifiable risk and there is externality in production and R&D. With non-diversifiable risk, a household’s consumption and investment decisions are interlinked. This economy contains industries of two kinds: monopoly industries with an innovator only, and duopoly industries with an innovator and an imitator. I define patent length as the expected time in which an innovation is imitated, and patent breadth as the innovator’s profit share in an industry after a successful imitation. The government can control patent length by the requirements for accepting a substitute for a patented good, and patent breadth by imposing compulsory licensing and royalties for the patentee after a successful imitation. I show that the stronger the externality in production relative to R&D is, the slower the optimal growth rate, the larger the optimal proportion of duopoly industries, and the longer and narrower the optimal patent.     

Climate change mitigation options and directed technical change: A decentralized equilibrium analysis

The paper considers an endogenous growth model with climate change as well as three R&D sectors dedicated to energy, CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) and backstop efficiency. First, we characterize the set of decentralized equilibria: a particular equilibrium is associated with any vector of policy instruments including a carbon tax and a subsidy to each R&D sector. Second, we show that it is possible to express any equilibrium as the solution of a maximization program. Third, we solve the first-best optimum problem and thereby deriving the optimal instruments. Finally, we illustrate the theoretical model using calibrated functional specifications. In particular, we investigate the effects of various combinations of policy instruments (including the optimal ones) by determining the deviation of each corresponding equilibrium from the “laisser-faire” benchmark. We find notably that introducing an R&D subsidy hardly affects emissions when a carbon tax is already implemented, thus revealing a complementary effect between these two policy instruments.