金融新常态与经济新常态的协同发展分析——兼论金融供给侧结构性改革中解除金融抑制的进程

本文以金融抑制为研究主线,并作为经济新常态、金融新常态和金融供给侧结构性改革的结合点,解读金融供给侧结构性改革中解除金融抑制的进程并寻找金融新常态的现实依据,论述金融新常态与经济新常态的协同关系。结论如下:金融供给侧结构性改革效果良好,金融抑制的解除取得显著成效;我国金融发展步入新常态,且中国金融体系和金融发展具有内在稳定性;金融新常态与经济新常态相伴而生,金融新常态既是经济新常态的必然结果,也是经济新常态的客观表现。根据经济发展和金融供给侧结构性改革的历史经验,适应经济新常态、稳步推进金融供给侧结构性改革的建议为:在深化金融改革的同时,突出政府、市场和社会的协同作用;从内外两个角度实施金融供给侧结构性改革;中央和地方在解除金融抑制和深化金融改革时,应充分把控速度和质量,逐步推进金融供给侧结构性改革。     

对政府投资项目财政评审管理中规避风险的思考

政府投资项目财政评审风险,是指财政评审有关的单位或个人因财政评审事项所引起的损失。对财政评审风险的种类和发生财政评审风险的根源进行分析,最终提出了规避财政评审风险的措施,以加强对财政资金的监管。掌握财政评审的风险体系,了解规避风险的措施,才能够保证财政资金使用的安全性和高效性。     

Forecasting financial crises for an enterprise by using the Grey Markov forecasting model

The business environment is rapidly changing and some enterprises have announced unexpected restructurings, leading to stagnating stock prices and declines in their business performance. To prepare for calamity, it is becoming increasingly important for enterprise managers to use current financial data for short-term financial forecasting. Managers and investors are increasingly concerned with immediately and accurately forecasting firm financial crises using a limited amount of financial data. This work employs Z-Score value, which can be used to measure multinomial financial crisis index for forecasting, and utilizes Grey Markov forecasting for valuation. Based on the research results, the accuracy of the Grey Markov forecasting model is as expected, with excellent Z-Score, and the model can rapidly forecast the likelihood of firm financial crises. The study results can provide a good reference for government and financial institutions in examining financial risk, and for investors in selecting investment targets.     

金融资产配置、金融杠杆与现金流风险

金融资产会计安排是企业执行金融工具准则的重要环节,具有显著的经济后果。基于实体企业金融化现象,研究金融资产配置与现金流风险关系,分析金融杠杆的调节功能,探讨非效率资本配置的传导作用,研究发现：金融资产配置与现金流风险之间存在U型关系;金融杠杆能够调节金融资产配置与现金流风险的关系,使关系曲线拐点右移与扁平化。区分金融资产配置类型后发现：交易类金融资产与现金流风险呈U型关系;委托贷款等新兴金融资产负向影响现金流风险;投资性房地产和长期金融股权投资未显著影响现金流风险。考虑企业生命周期后发现,成长期与衰退期企业金融资产配置与现金流风险呈U型关系,成熟期企业金融资产配置负向影响现金流风险;按照产权性质分组检验发现,金融资产配置与现金流风险的关系以及金融杠杆的调节效应在非国有企业中更显著;机制检验发现,非效率资本配置在金融资产配置影响现金流风险的过程中发挥中介作用。     

浅析中小企业内部财务控制与管理

中小企业是国民经济的重要组成部分,但由于企业内部财务控制与管理的不足,如企业内部财务控制制度滞后,财务监控体系薄弱;内部财务管理混乱,效率低下等,中小企业举步维艰。针对这些问题,本文提出了一些解决方案,包括加强控制意识,完善内部财务制度,合理配置财务管理权限,加强企业财务信息化建设等具体措施。     

技术创新背景下我国金融科技2.0发展路径

金融科技2.0模式的核心特征是由资金端创新转向资产端创新和基础设施创新,在现有金融规范秩序下拓展金融服务维度,为普惠金融和智慧金融发展提供可能。由于技术和资金约束,我国金融科技2.0模式发展存在数字鸿沟过大、金融创新发展质量不高、金融创新网络安全及法规监管滞后等问题。本文从制度、技术和内需角度提出了具体优化发展路径,即鼓励技术创新和金融领域应用,通过监管创新规范金融科技转型发展;鼓励技术创新,推动科技企业技术变革;加速传统金融机构转型,拓展金融科技内需。     

Financial constraints and synergy gains from mergers and acquisitions

This paper examines mergers and acquisitions motivated by financial constraints. Synergy gain is measured as the cumulative abnormal return of a value‐weighted portfolio of the acquirer and the target around the acquisition announcement. By constructing a financial constraint difference between the target and the acquirer, we find a positive relationship between the financial constraint difference and synergy gains generated from the acquisition. The positive effect of the financial constraint difference is only significant for high growth targets and severely constrained targets. The acquirer's corporate governance also enhances the synergy gains created from the financial constraint difference. Additional evidence shows that both acquirer's and target's shareholders benefit from the financial constraint difference. Our results are robust for different measures of financial constraint.     

管理层过度自信、独立财务顾问与业绩承诺可靠性

以我国2008—2016年A股上市公司发起的并购重组交易事件为样本,研究了管理层过度自信的上市公司在并购和重大资产重组交易中是否具有更低的目标企业业绩承诺可靠性,以及选聘独立财务顾问是否有助于抑制管理层过度自信对于目标企业业绩承诺可靠性的不利影响。同时,进一步探究了不同特征独立财务顾问的差异及经济后果。研究结论显示：管理层过度自信的上市公司更大可能会对目标企业虚高的业绩承诺水平和盈利能力过于乐观,因而在并购交易完成后更容易面临业绩承诺不可靠的风险;整体而言,上市公司聘请独立财务顾问并没有使目标企业的业绩承诺不可靠问题得到有效缓解,独立财务顾问并没有发挥其应有的风险过滤职能;选聘独立财务顾问确实能显著提高存在管理层过度自信上市公司的业绩承诺可靠性,说明独立财务顾问确实能有效抑制管理层过度自信对目标企业业绩承诺可靠性的不利影响;进一步区分独立财务顾问的特征后发现,选聘目标企业所在地的独立财务顾问能更有效地缓解业绩承诺不可靠问题,但高声誉的独立财务顾问并没有呈现出更大的优势,表明上市公司在选聘独立财务顾问时,更注重地域特征,而非高声誉的独立财务顾问。     

CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的影响研究

以2012—2021年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本，探讨CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的影响。研究发现，CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性有抑制作用，CFO财务执行力在CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的影响关系中具有正向中介作用，环境动态性和环境包容性具有负向调节效应。异质性分析发现，CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的抑制作用在成长期企业中更加显著，但不存在企业规模异质性；CFO财务执行力对中位数以下规模企业和成长期企业的中介作用更加显著；环境动态性和环境包容性对中位数以下规模企业和成长期企业的负向调节效应更加显著。     

Financial sector bargaining power,aggregate growth and systemic risk

Recent decades have seen a substantial increase in the size and influence of the financial industry in advanced economies. Mainstream theory states that the financial sector can increase the efficiency and stability of the real economy by reducing informational asymmetries and transaction costs. Nevertheless, the rise of the financial industry has been accompanied by lower aggregate growth, increased inequality and declining financial stability. With this in mind, the main aim of the present article is to provide a different perspective on the rise of finance in developed countries, by focusing on the impact of financial markets on aggregate growth and economic (in)stability. Specifically, we analyse the role of the bargaining power of financial intermediaries in promoting (or reducing) the entrance of new enterprises in the market and find that the financial sector is essential for the good functioning of the real economy, but that an overdeveloped financial industry can reduce the incentive for new firms to start production, resulting in a negative impact on aggregate growth and economic stability.

     

完善高校财务内部控制制度刍议

为促进我国的教育事业会更加积极健康的发展。本文通过分析高校财务内部控制现状,找出内部控制的薄弱环节,以求完善高校财务内部控制,主要对高校内部财务控制的当前情况进行具体分析,认识对高校内部财务控制的不足,提出完善高校内部财务控制的途径,其中包括:提高认识,强化全员内部控制意识;健全内部控制制度强化财务约束监督体制;完善内部审计制度;建立健全总会计师制度;推行全面预算管理,用指标管财等等。     

UNIVERSAL BANKING: The view from Brazil

This note begins with a brief summary of the economic and regulatory history surrounding the Universal Banking debate. Following this introduction, it focuses on the Brazilian regulatory and supervision experience. The Central Bank of Brazil has persistently enhanced prudential regulation and supervision practices in order to cope with the complexity of large financial institutions and financial holding companies. Some features of the Brazilian regulatory framework have contributed to the Brazilian economic and financial performance in recent years, such as: consolidated financial statements, including all financial and non financial subsidiaries; internal structures for risk management; responsibilities for controlling shareholders; unrestricted access to all information by supervisors; and, one of the most important issues, the requirement to foreign firms to constitute stand-alone subsidiaries. Finally, there is a short overview of the G20 financial sector reform agenda (including Basel III accord), specially, regarding the issue of Systemically Important Financial Institutions – SIFIs.     

中小企业板运输仓储上市企业的财务风险评价

选取了深市中小企业板上市的13家运输仓储企业的2019年年度财务数据,采用主成分分析的方法对样本公司的财务风险进行了评价。研究结果表明:样本公司的财务风险整体较高,且不同样本公司间的财务风险差异较大;各样本公司在偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力与发展能力四个方面均有所不同,且差异比较明显;财务风险等级为“低风险”的公司有3家,“一般风险”的公司有1家,“较高风险”的公司有8家,“高风险”的公司有1家。最后,基于上述研究结果,对上市公司的财务管理提出了相关建议。     

Economic policy uncertainty,investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model

This paper applies the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model to explore the dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability in China in different periods and at different time points. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has an obvious negative impact on investor sentiment before 2012 and financial stability in the short term, and the influence of economic policy uncertainty on investor sentiment is greater than that of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability. These influences were more significant during the period of the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, investor sentiment had a positive and gradually increasing effect on financial stability, while after 2010, the positive impact gradually weakened. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty is negatively affected by financial stability, and the effect of financial stability on investor sentiment is positive. In terms of mediating effects, economic policy uncertainty has an indirect impact on financial stability through investor sentiment and vice versa. This paper provides a new solution to economic problems explored in behavioral finance research. Additionally, Chinese government agencies can achieve the goal of preventing financial crises and maintaining financial stability by monitoring investor sentiment and implementing targeted economic policies.

     

The impact of VIX on China’s financial market: A new perspective based on high-dimensional and time-varying methods

Based on the new perspective of high-dimensional and time-varying methods, this paper analyzes the contagion effects of US financial market volatility on China’s nine financial sub-markets. The results show evidence of non-linear Granger causality from the US financial volatility (VIX) to the China’s financial markets. Increased US financial volatility has a negative next-day impact on the stock, bond, fund, interest rate, foreign exchange, industrial product and agricultural product markets, and a positive next-day impact on the gold and real estate markets. US financial volatility has the greatest impact on industrial product market, following by stock, agricultural product, fund, real estate, bond, gold, foreign exchange, and interest rates. Major risk events such as the global financial crisis can cause an enhanced contagion effect of US financial volatility to China's financial markets. This paper supports the achievements of China's actions to prevent and resolve major financial risks in the period of the COVID-19 epidemic.     

环境不确定条件下企业动态财务能力的分析框架

分析了环境不确定条件下动态能力、财务柔性、权变财务研究的现状与不足,构建了动态财务能力分析框架。认为动态财务能力包括两个层次:第一层次包括财务状态评判能力、财务机会创造与识别能力;第二层次包括公司治理结构、组织结构和财权配置结构调整能力,财务战略及政策调整、财务资源整合能力。企业只有在正确评判财务状态、识别财务机会的基础上,适时调整公司治理结构、组织结构、财权配置结构、公司战略与政策,有效整合财务资源,才能实现环境、行为与价值的动态协调。     

Determinants of Internet Financial Reporting by New Zealand Companies

The development of the Internet as a global medium for the dissemination of corporate financial information creates a new reporting environment. Extensive literature examines the determinants of voluntary financial reporting through traditional media such as print–based annual reports. This paper extends this literature by examining the voluntary adoption of the Internet as a medium for transmitting financial reports and determinants of such voluntary practice by New Zealand companies. The results indicate that some determinants of traditional financial reporting—firm size, liquidity, industrial sector and spread of shareholding—are determinants of voluntary adoption of Internet financial reporting (IFR). However, other firm characteristics, such as leverage, profitability and internationalization do not explain the choice to use the Internet as a medium for corporate financial reporting.     

我国财政赤字的可持续性分析：2007—2009

根据政府的可偿付性约束理论,在分析财政赤字与经济增长、通货膨胀一致性的基础上估算我国的实际赤字水平和可持续赤字水平,对我国财政赤字的可持续性进行分析。结果发现,虽然2008年政府财政赤字是可持续的,但金融危机的影响导致了2009年财政赤字的上升,同时公众的预期通货膨胀率以及汇率的变动也会对未来财政赤字的可持续性产生影响。因此,若要保证未来年份政府财政赤字的可持续性,政府就应随着经济形势的好转适度减少财政赤字,同时合理引导公众预期,保持人民币汇率的相对稳定。     

中国现代金融体系的结构、影响及前景

在经济快速增长的背景下,中国已逐步形成一个以中央银行为核心、商业银行为主体,各种银行和非银行金融机构分工协作的现代国家金融体系。运用计量分析方法和典型相关分析,研究中国现代金融体系的社会融资结构、证券市场结构以及影子银行结构,测度国家现代金融体系对实体经济各行业的影响程度。研究表明:金融机构贷款与债券市场对相关行业的促进具有一定协同作用,股票市场对第一、二产业的发展影响较小,金融业对第三产业的促进作用最大。根据目前金融体系的结构、影响,可以预见未来中国现代金融体系的发展前景将主要体现在市场化、网络化以及国际化三个方面。     

Multiscale financial risk contagion between international stock markets: Evidence from EMD-Copula-CoVaR analysis

Considering the frequency domain and nonlinear characteristics of financial risks, we measure the multiscale financial risk contagion by constructing EMD-Copula-CoVaR models. Using a sample composed of nine international stock markets from January 4, 1999, to May 13, 2021, the empirical study reveals that: (1) EMD-Copula-CoVaR models can effectively measure the multiscale financial risk contagion, and the financial risk contagion is significant at all time scales; (2) The high-frequency component is the major contributor of financial risk contagion; meanwhile, the low-frequency component is the smallest among all time scale components; (3) The risk export of the US financial market to other markets, except the UK under the original and medium-frequency component, is higher than that it receives; and (4) Even though the magnitude of overall financial risk contagion is similar for the COVID-19 pandemic, Subprime Crises, 9/11 terrorist attack and other crises, the relative importance of different frequency components is heterogeneous. Therefore, the countermeasures of risk contagion should be designed according to its multiscale characteristics.