Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Advertising and Steiner’s Dual Stage Model: Our Assessment

Between 1967 and 1979, we produced a number of studies that explored different facets of the economics of advertising. This work culminated in our 1974 book entitled Advertising and Market Power. Our leading hypothesis was that heavy advertising expenditures often but not always had anti‐competitive effects. And our primary empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis was that industries with heavy advertising expenditures also reported higher profit rates, which we interpreted as indicating that higher prices followed when manufacturers can effectively spend large amounts on advertising. Since that time, Robert Steiner has developed a model of firm behaviour for consumer goods industries. He finds that distribution margins are generally higher where manufacturer prices are lower. Furthermore, heavy manufacturer advertising is likely to depress distribution margins for heavily advertised products. While our earlier work implicitly assumed that distribution margins are generally the same regardless of the volume of advertising, Steiner’s results raise doubt on this assumption. Steiner’s model must therefore be acknowledged when interpreting our earlier findings.     

STOLPER–SAMUELSON REVISITED: TRADE AND DISTRIBUTION WITH OLIGOPOLISTIC PROFITS

This paper investigates the distributional impact of international trade when goods markets are oligopolistic and firms partially pass‐through changes in tariffs into prices and factor costs for differentiated products. Trade liberalization raises mark‐ups and profit shares in the export industry and lowers them in the import‐competing industry, while Stolper–Samuelson effects on real prices of primary factors are attenuated or possibly reversed. An extended model shows how ‘offshoring’ (trade in intermediate goods) can potentially increase mark‐ups for oligopolistic producers of final goods. The analysis illuminates why business interests generally support trade liberalization policies today, regardless of their countries' factor abundance.     

From conventional to unconventional monetary policies: The failure of the market‐maker of last resort

This paper analyses the new role of market‐maker of last resort openly assumed by central banks since the 2008 financial crisis revealed the increasing impact of noninterest‐income activities on banks' balance sheets. A brief review of the distinction between conventional and unconventional monetary policies shows that the inflexion point from lender of last resort to market‐maker of last resort is given by the extension of central bank intervention to other markets than the bank reserves markets. Herein, it is explained how the market‐maker of last resort role is as counterproductive as its predecessor in putting the economy back on track. We show that the main problem of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies is that they distort price signals, particularly asset prices, in their attempt to reignite economic growth. Instead of correcting cyclical fluctuations, the policies of the market‐maker of last resort prevent the cyclical divergences between financial and goods sectors from readjusting.     

Speed Intensity and the Rise of the Chinese Economies

Producers of speed‐intensive goods, e.g. clothing or electronics, face markets that are in constant flux due to changing fashion or technology. Throughout the twentieth century, Chinese business networks have had a comparative advantage in producing speed‐intensive goods due to their quick reaction time. This comparative advantage was of relatively little value prior to the Second World War, but since the war, international telephone and air services have made international trade in speed‐intensive goods practical. This has caused the demand for speed‐intensive goods on the international market to grow at an extremely rapid pace. This growth in demand can explain the post‐Second World War economic booms experienced by Hong Kong, Taiwan and finally China.     

Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions

Changes in exchange rates affect countries through their impact on cross‐border activities such as trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). With increasing activities of multinational firms, the FDI channel is likely to gain in importance. Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect FDI. According to the first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if investment depends on firms’ net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to the second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm‐specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of these two explanations. We analyse the implications of the model empirically using a dataset based on detailed German firm‐level data. We find greater support for the goods market than for the capital market friction hypothesis.     

Yen or Yuan? The law of one price and economic integration in Asia

Using highly comparable local retail prices of 146 goods and services across 18 Asian countries over 1990–2014, we analyse price dispersion and test convergence to the law of one price (LOP ) for these prices around three price benchmarks—Asia‐average, Japan and China prices—to gain insight about market integration in overall Asia as well relative integration of Asian economies to Japan and China. Cross‐Asia price dispersion around China‐price benchmark, for both tradables and non‐tradables, diminishes significantly over the sample period whereas that around Japan‐price benchmark increases considerably, particularly after the 2008 crisis. There is convergence to the LOP for about half of goods and services in China‐ and Asia‐average price benchmarks. The percentage of convergent prices is significantly smaller in Japan‐price benchmark. Direct estimates of the convergence speed parameter also confirm these observations. Overall, our results show evidence of increasing economic integration in Asia in the last two decades. The process of price convergence appears to be driven by the emergence of China as the centre of economic gravity in the region. There is much room for improvement as economic integration in Asia is still far below that in Europe in the 1990s or USA in the 1980s.     

Complementary Goods: Prices and Consumer Welfare Under Duopoly and Monopoly

We examine prices, profits, and consumer surplus for differentiated complementary goods under duopoly and a multi‐product monopoly. We find that little can be said about the relative magnitudes of prices of the components of a system of complementary goods under the alternative market structures. Although demand complementarity can lead to lower prices for either the primary or the secondary good under monopoly, both prices are not necessarily lower. The results unique to this paper are that, when two complementary goods form a system, the system price is unambiguously lower and consumer surplus and profits are higher under a multi‐product monopoly.     

Why Does the Problem Persist? ‘Rational Rigidity’ and the Plight of Japanese Banks

One of the most perplexing factors in the Japanese financial crisis is the apparently non‐optimal and non‐rational behaviour of Japanese banks. We provide a “rational” explanation for bank behaviour based on a theory of community banking that incorporates Japanese institutional characteristics. We find three implications of community banking – a low lending rate, a low bankruptcy rate, and in particular, institutionalisation of ‘rational rigidity’ (an institutional pledge of no profit maximisation) – in Japanese banks. We argue that this type of banking is viable as long as the economy expands and asset prices go up, which was the case before the asset‐market crash in 1990. The stagnation and free‐fall of asset prices in the 1990s exerted tremendous pressure on Japanese banks but did not paralyse them completely in the 1990s, although there are indications that they failed to restructure distressed large corporations in some sectors, notably real estate. Thus, the problem is not that paralysed banks are blocking recovery, but that their current institutionalised rigidity in banking practices is no longer viable because private enterprises in the market economy are suffering from asset‐price deflation and economic stagnation.     

The Business Cycle and Profitability of Trading Strategies

Recent studies show that investor participation in the stock market rises during economic expansion and drops in economic recession. When investor participation is high, investors’ cognitive and behavioral biases are likely to have a strong influence on stock prices. We consider four trading strategies that are based on well-known market anomalies and examine their profitability under different economic conditions. For all four strategies, the portfolios that are formed in the months when the economy is expanding obtain significant profits, whereas the portfolios formed in economic recession months are not profitable. This finding is robust to different ways of classifying recession months.     

Trade with Endogenous Market Power Under Asymmetric and Incomplete Information

This paper addresses whether or not trade under both asymmetric information and endogenous market power fits standard assumptions and outcomes of mechanism design of imperfect competition. I analyse the outcomes of a bilateral trade in which a manufacturer (the principal) purchases n inputs from a seller (the agent). Each input has a continuum of types, but the principal has no information on these input types, excepting their distributions. The model allows input types to shift input supply curves and flexibly accounts for any endogenous monopsony power (i.e., determined by the mechanism). Focusing on an optimal Bayesian mechanism, I find that the monotonicity assumption may not be enough to ensure price discrimination based on type. Truthful implementation implies that when allocation is increasing and weakly convex (curvature zero or positive) in the input type, the principal’s monopsony power decreases as the input type increases (i.e., is higher near competitive price for higher input type). However, under increasing but concave allocation, ambiguity remains as it is no longer guaranteed that high types would receive high prices. I also examine some extensions of the analysis in the cases of a benevolent principal and a mechanism with multiple agents. The findings provide explanation to real-world situations where input attribute affects market power of either player and to the functioning of many markets of goods and services under asymmetric and incomplete information.     

Firm Heterogeneity,Endogenous Quality,and Traded Goods Prices

A model with endogenous quality and firm heterogeneity is developed. Firms can invest in quality, and quality investment is relatively skill intensive. The model is used to account for two findings in the empirical literature on traded goods prices, lacking a formal explanation in the theoretical literature thus far. First, the model provides a theoretical explanation for Schott's (Quarterly Journal of Economics 2004, 119, 647) empirical finding that relatively skill‐abundant countries export higher priced goods. Firms in these countries invest more in quality and therefore sell higher quality, higher priced goods. Second, the opposite effects of importer market size on traded goods prices at the firm level (positive) and at the aggregate level (negative) identified in the empirical literature can be explained with the model. In a larger market, the incentive to invest in quality is larger for each firm, leading to higher firm‐level prices. Due to a selection effect, also less productive firms selling goods of lower quality can export to larger markets, implying lower aggregate prices.     

The Impact of Tax Rebate on Used Car Market: Evidence from Thailand

Tax incentives are one of the most important fiscal tools at the government's disposal that can be used to influence the economy. Often, policies are targeted to spur investment in durable goods. In this article, we focus on the impact that a primary‐market tax incentive has on the secondary market for durable goods – specifically, the automobile market. Using a first‐car tax rebate scheme implemented in Thailand in 2011 as a natural experiment, we find that the policy reduces the listing prices of used cars in the tax‐eligible category by 6.75% to 10.31%.     

Electronic Call Market for Commodity Transactions: Design of Computer-Mediated Order Matching System

Commodity exchanges provide potential market structures for electronic trading because commodity products have relatively simple and well-standardized product attributes. Most existing electronic trading systems are introduced for financial exchanges, where qualities of traded products (such as stocks and bonds) are homogeneous, thus taking into account only bid and offer prices for computer-mediated order matching. However, a single commodity market, such as the cotton or grain market, is made up of many heterogeneous goods that are similar to each other but have different product qualities and contract terms. In addition to the price, commodity traders have other pertinent preference ranges over product attributes and delivery conditions. We delineate an electronic call market system for commodity trading, which optimizes the realization of traders' utilities over extended product attributes beyond the price. The electronic call market not only maximizes the total surplus of market participants based on bid and ask prices but also satisfies their qualitative preferences over other attributes, which are difficult to include in the quantitative prices. The trading mechanism of the electronic call market integrates an economic auction model with a social choice model to produce a Pareto-improved transaction. Market simulations are conducted to validate the performance of the proposed electronic call market. The order matching system of the electronic call market is implemented using constraint logic programming.     

Impact of services trade on economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from India

This paper aims to study the impact of services trade on India’s economic growth and current account balance during the post-reform period. Earlier studies on this subject have mostly looked at the goods sector. Indian studies which analysed services-led growth from a balance of payments perspective suffered from a bias of having focused only on call-centre exports. In such a context, this study brings in a novel approach by using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration to estimate the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate for India’s service sector. The key service sub-sectors are also identified using input–output tables and the TIVA database. This study finds that India’s service sector is growing at a rate almost equal to its balance of payments equilibrium growth rate under the assumption of constant relative prices in international trade, and at a rate lower than the equilibrium growth rate when this assumption is relaxed. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strong backward linkages. Foreign value-added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in the case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.     

Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

A New Look at Old Coefficients

For more than 50 years, numerous studies have shown low price–quality correlation coefficients, mostly close to 0.2. That prices fail to function as valid indicators of product quality has been interpreted as informational market failure. This article, however, argues, that, according to the economic theory of price formation, prices are not an indicator of quality, but an indicator of scarcity. This allows the conclusion that workable consumer goods markets, at least as seen from the consumer’s point of view, should be characterized by low or even negative correlation coefficients rather than by strong positive coefficients.     

The Merits of Dual Pricing of Russian Natural Gas

Our analysis reveals that, from Russia's perspective, there is no economic rationale to unify the price of natural gas it sells domestically and in Europe. We argue that pipelines allow Gazprom to segment the Russian market from the European (including Turkey) market and that Russia has market power in the European market. If Russia were to fail to exploit this market power in its European market, by selling its natural gas to Europe at only full long‐run marginal cost plus transportation costs, Russia would lose between $5 billion and $7.5 billion per year (almost two per cent of its GDP). If, instead, Russia were to raise its domestic prices to the prices it charges in Europe, Russian industry would incur very large investment adjustment and unemployment costs in the short run – adjustment costs that cannot be justified on the basis of comparative advantage. We estimate that the efficient world price would be achieved if Gazprom were to employ its optimal ‘two‐part tariff’. The optimal two‐part tariff would double Gazprom's annual profits in Europe, but it involves significant long‐term risks for Gazprom of lost market share.     

Consumers' choice among peer‐to‐peer sharing platforms: The other side of the coin

Many peer‐to‐peer sharing platforms are transforming their business model from sharing for free to renting with or without in‐person interactions. How will these changes affect consumers’ participation in peer‐to‐peer sharing of personal items? The work studies consumers’ choice among three business models that vary on two dimensions: “free versus renting” and “with or without in‐person interactions.” The novelty is to consider that consumers’ choice can be driven by their perceptions of relationships among peers, which are shaped by the business models of sharing platforms. Perceptions of communal sharing (CS) relationships among peers are found to differ across business models and to predict consumers’ choice among the platforms above and beyond the economic and social benefits that consumers seek. Interestingly, perceptions of CS are not only found to explain the choice of a sharing for the free business model over the two others, but also the choice of renting with in‐person interactions over renting without in‐person interactions. For managers of peer‐to‐peer sharing platforms, this means that renting does not make sharing completely similar to traditional market exchanges as long as in‐person interactions are involved. For scholars, this calls for more work on the factors that bring about perceptions of CS.     

Local costs of distribution,international trade costs and micro evidence on the law of one price

This paper connects trade flows to deviations from the law of one price (LOOP) in a structural model of trade and retailing. It accounts for the observed cross-country dispersion in prices of goods, based on retail price survey data, by focusing on two sources of goods market segmentation — (i) international trade costs, and (ii) non-traded input costs of distribution. I find that a multi-sector Ricardian trade model, ala Eaton–Kortum, augmented with a distribution sector, can account for the average price dispersion for a basket of goods fully and generates 70% of the variation in price dispersion across goods within the basket. While tradability of goods is important in explaining the average price dispersion for the basket of goods, distribution costs are important in explaining why, within the basket, some goods show more price dispersion than others.