最优关税、专利保护期和FDI——基于产品生命周期理论的模型拓展与实证分析

本文讨论在产品生命周期理论框架下的一个最优关税和专利保护期模型,研究发展中国家知识产权保护对发达国家跨国企业进行FDI决策的影响。发展中国家应使用最优关税和专利保护期的组合策略,吸引FDI并使其社会福利最大化。当考虑到产品成熟期时发展中国家的反向出口,跨国企业更不易采取FDI策略。这一结论在作者选择20家知名跨国企业在100个发展中国家投资的有关数据进行计量分析后基本得以证实。     

WHY ARE TRADE BARRIERS SO LOW?

The political economy literature suggests that tariff rates should be high because the gains to producers from protection are enormous while the welfare costs are small. This paper presents and evaluates six possible explanations for the relatively low tariffs we see today in most developed countries.     

Gains from international monetary policy coordination: Does it pay to be different?

In a two country world where each country has a traded and a non-traded sector and each sector has sticky prices, optimal independent policy in general cannot replicate the natural-rate allocations. There are potential welfare gains from coordination since the planner under a cooperating regime internalizes a terms-of-trade externality that independent policymakers overlook. If the countries have symmetric trading structures, however, the gains from coordination are quantitatively small. With asymmetric trading structures, the gains can be sizable since, in addition to internalizing the terms-of-trade externality, the planner optimally engineers a terms-of-trade bias that favors the country with a larger traded sector.     

Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?

We study the welfare effect of tax-optimizing portfolio decisions in a life cycle model with unspanned labor income and realization-based capital gain taxation. For realistic parameterizations of our model, certainty equivalent welfare gains from fully tax-optimized portfolio decisions are less than 2% of present financial wealth and lifetime income compared to a heuristic portfolio policy ignoring the taxation of profits (capital gains, interest and dividend payments). Compared to a heuristic portfolio policy that only ignores the realization-based feature of capital gain taxation and instead assumes mark-to-market taxation, these gains are less than 0.5%. That is, our work provides a justification for ignoring taxes in life cycle portfolio choice problems – a wide-spread assumption in that literature. However, if capital gains are forgiven at death (as in the U.S.), investors with strong bequest motives face substantial welfare costs when not tax-optimizing their portfolio decisions towards the end of the life cycle.     

Should tariff-rate quotas mimic quotas?: Implications for trade liberalization under a supply management policy

This article compares price-equivalent import tariffs and quotas when domestic production is controlled by a marketing board with the power to restrict domestic supply through production quotas. Canada's dairy industry is supply-managed and protected by TRQs to achieve a domestic price target. TRQs are currently set to mimic the import quotas they replaced. However, they could be set to mimic tariffs instead. We provide welfare rankings between (domestic) price-equivalent quotas and tariffs under various assumptions regarding the powers of the marketing board to shed new light on liberalization in the Canadian dairy industry. When the marketing board is allowed to export, quotas can never be welfare-inferior to price-equivalent tariffs when transport costs between the two markets are insignificant. Import licensing methods have important implications for the ranking of the two trade instruments and the ranges of feasible domestic prices. If the marketing board controlled all import licenses and there was no rule preventing it from sleeping on part or all of its import licenses, the quota regime would support a small range of high feasible prices. In contrast, when the quota is a minimum access commitment, there are high prices under the tariff regime that are not feasible under the quota regime.     

Fragmentation in simple trade models

This paper examines the effects of “fragmentation,” defined as the splitting of a production process into two or more steps that can be undertaken in different locations but that lead to the same final product. Introducing the possibility of fragmentation into simple theoretical models of international trade, the paper finds the effects of fragmentation on national welfare, on patterns of specialization and trade, and on factor prices. Models examined include the Ricardian Model and the Heckscher-Ohlin Model, both for small open economies and for a two-country world. Results are as follows: 1. If fragmentation does not change the prices of goods, then it must increase the value of output of any country where it occurs and that of the world. 2. If fragmentation does change prices, then fragmentation can lower the welfare of a country by turning its terms of trade against it. 3. Even in a country that gains from fragmentation, it is possible (but not necessary) that some factor owners within that country will lose. 4. To the extent that factor prices are not equalized internationally in the absence of fragmentation, fragmentation may be a force toward factor price equalization.     

Whom to license patented technology

This paper examines the optimal licensing policy of a patent holder when potential licensees differ in their capacities in absorbing the patented technology. If two-part tariffs with non-negative royalties and fixed fees are feasible, the patent holder finds it optimal to license the strong firm exclusively whether or not an exclusive licensing of the weak firm deters the strong firm from entering the market. Hence, the potential trade-offs between strategic gains associated with licensing to weak competitors and efficiency gains associated with licensing to efficient competitors do not exist when two part tariffs are available. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of VAT in India

Indian industry is under pricing pressure after the government cut tariffs in a phased manner as per the WTO agreements. In order to be competitive, the consensus opinion in government, academics and industry is the implementation of a VAT in India. The paper evaluates the welfare implications of a VAT in the static and a sequentially dynamic context after accounting for the political and administrative constraints facing the Indian government in implementing a VAT. Replacing the old indirect tax structure with a VAT is welfare worsening. The increase in final consumer prices on account of reduced tax base leads to higher price of essentials, causing welfare loss. Zero rating v/s exemption plays an important role on welfare, with lower welfare loss if essential commodities are exempt from VAT. Agriculture sector unambiguously plays a crucial role in welfare.     

All-Units Discounts in Retail Contracts

All-units discounts in retail contracts refer to discounts that lower a retailer's wholesale price on every unit purchased when the retailer's purchases equal or exceed some quantity threshold. These discounts pose a challenge to economic theory because it is difficult to understand why a manufacturer ever would charge less for a larger order if its intentions were benign. In this paper, we show that all-units discounts may profitably arise absent any exclusionary motive. All-units discounts eliminate double marginalization in a complete information setting, and they extract more profit than would a menu of two-part tariffs in the standard incomplete information setting with two types of buyers. All-units discounts may improve or may reduce welfare (relative to menus of two-part tariffs) depending on demand parameters .     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

Outsourcing and trade in a spatial world

This paper provides an analysis of outsourcing and trade in a spatial model à la Hotelling. In this setting, we discuss the trade-off between transport-cost-related disadvantages and outsourcing-related production cost advantages of a large economy and we investigate how the existence of national transport costs influences both the structure of industrial production and the pattern of final goods trade. In addition, the model gives a rich picture of the possible welfare effects of trade liberalization. In particular, we show that a final goods exporting country definitely gains from economic integration, while a final goods importing country may lose. Finally, when lowering domestic outsourcing activities, trade liberalization may reduce world welfare, even if pro-competitive effects lead to a decline in consumer prices.     

National versus supranational bank regulation: Gains and losses of joining a banking union

We ask how the structure of international banking affects the decision of a national regulator to join a banking union and to transfer regulatory powers to the supranational level. The focus is on bank supervision and bank resolution. A national regulator ignores possible gains or losses, which accrue to other jurisdictions if banks are internationally active. A supranational regulator takes these regulatory external effects into account. While supranational regulation improves total welfare, this is not necessarily the case for welfare in single countries. By analyzing the size and determinants of spillover effects we show how they constrain a country’s willingness to participate in a banking union. Our results may explain why some member states of the European Union currently hesitate to join the European Banking Union.     

城市土地储备制度:绩效、困境及其完善

作为一项制度创新,城市土地储备制度在实施过程中取得了一定的制度绩效,但也面临很多困境.结合我国城市土地储备制度的实施情况,分析了城市土地储备制度取得的绩效和面临的困境,并有针对性地提出了完善城市土地储备制度的对策建议.     

Outsourcing and trade in a spatial world

This paper provides an analysis of outsourcing and trade in a spatial model à la Hotelling. In this setting, we discuss the trade-off between transport-cost-related disadvantages and outsourcing-related production cost advantages of a large economy and we investigate how the existence of national transport costs influences both the structure of industrial production and the pattern of final goods trade. In addition, the model gives a rich picture of the possible welfare effects of trade liberalization. In particular, we show that a final goods exporting country definitely gains from economic integration, while a final goods importing country may lose. Finally, when lowering domestic outsourcing activities, trade liberalization may reduce world welfare, even if pro-competitive effects lead to a decline in consumer prices.     

Growth and the dynamics of trade liberalization

This paper develops a model of ongoing trade liberalization as a self-enforcing equilibrium in a game between governments. Economic growth is a critical ingredient in successful trade liberalization. But differences in national growth rates have profound differences on the sustainable tariff equilibria of the game. If international technology spillovers are not concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster growing countries will be more protectionist, setting higher tariffs and liberalizing trade at a later date. But with spillovers more concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster-growing countries may be less protectionist. Differences in growth rates lead the process of trade liberalization to be far from reciprocal. A sustainable trade liberalization may actually involve one country pursuing a unilateral policy of free trade, even though its trading partner imposes tariffs against it.     

INTERNATIONAL TAX COMPETITION AND DOUBLE TAXATION

This paper examines international tax competition, with respect to both corporate income tax rates and tax rules for double taxation. Unlike existing studies, this study assumes that governments set non-discriminatory tax rates on domestic- and foreign-sourced corporate income and can choose no tax allowance as the tax rule. Consequently, the Nash equilibrium outcomes contradict the intuition underlying previous studies: no tax allowance is chosen as the tax rule where world economic welfare can be maximized. A capital-exporting country gains whereas a capital-importing country loses, compared to the case where there is a tax allowance of any kind.     

全球视角下美国对华加征关税的福利影响——基于服装业的局部均衡模拟分析

基于2017年全球服装产品生产与贸易的有关数据,利用可计算局部均衡模型从全球视角实证考察美国加征关税在行业层面的福利影响。结果表明：第一,美国对华服装产品加征关税具有比较显著的贸易破坏效应,但由于贸易偏转效应,中国服装对欧盟、日本等第三方市场的出口将有所增加;第二,在全球化背景下,由于贸易转移效应的存在,加征关税对美国服装产业的救济效果非常有限;第三,美国对中国服装产品加征关税导致美国社会净福利损失要远高于中国社会净福利损失。研究结论对如何应对当前中美贸易摩擦具有一定借鉴意义。     

Look before you leap: Why politicians may have a point to be hesitant about the gains from trade

Economists emphasize the welfare gains of unrestricted trade, but politicians worry about the income distribution effects of increased competition. We show that the welfare gains of a trade shock become ambiguous if inaccurate information hinders optimal income redistribution with distortionary policy instruments. To be sure about the net welfare outcome of a compensated trade shock, the government must know the size of the trade shock and the corresponding size of the policy instrument that is needed to generate a balanced budget. If this is not the case, politicians may have a point when being hesitant about the gains from trade.     

Social security and two-earner households

In the past decades, elimination of the pay-as-you-go system in U.S. has been extensively discussed and studied. Such an elimination would also eliminate the intragenerational redistribution done by the following policies of social security. Due to spousal and survivor׳s benefit provisions, US Social Security system redistributes (mostly) to single-earner married households. Since retirement benefits are a concave function of past mean earnings, the system redistributes from high earners to low earners. Finally, existence of a cap on social security taxable earnings makes the system regressive. This paper quantifies redistributive, labor supply, and welfare implications of these policies using a general equilibrium life-cycle model. Agents start out as permanently married or single and with education levels and wage profiles, where the latter depend both on education and gender. The household is the decision maker and decides on labor supply of its member(s) and saving. Elimination of these policies results in a 5.5% rise in labor force participation of married females, while increasing aggregate welfare by 0.4%. A majority of households experience positive gains in welfare. Single-earner married households incur large welfare losses (as big as 1.1%), whereas two-earner households with high skilled spouses experience substantial welfare gains (as big as 1.9%).     

Disinflation in a DSGE perspective: Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio?

When used to examine disinflation monetary policies, the current workhorse dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of business cycle fluctuations is able to quantitatively account for the main stylized facts in terms of recessionary effects and sacrifice ratio. We complement the transitional analysis of the short-run costs with a rigorous welfare evaluation and show that, despite the long-lasting economic downturn, disinflation entails non-zero overall welfare gains.