房地产项目投资风险评价研究

本文在对房地产项目投资风险进行分析研究的基础上，提出了房地产项目投资风险评价指标体系，构建出房地产项目投资风险评价的梯阶层次结构模型，并用层次分析法对房地产项目投资风险进行了综合评价。     

房地产投资项目融资风险的灰色模糊评判研究

房地产投资项目的融资风险问题具有灰色性(信息不完全)和模糊(概念不明确)性。考虑到灰色性和模糊性的影响，采用适用性更广的灰色模糊多级综合评判理论，对房地产投资项目融资风险的多级指标体系进行综合评判，可以有效地、全面地和系统地评价房地产投资项目融资风险的大小，为项目融资项目决策提供准确依据。     

AHP模型在企业技术创新项目风险评价中的应用

基于企业技术创新项目的风险研究和大量专家的意见,构建了企业技术创新项目风险评价指标体系,并运用AHP评价模型对企业技术创新项目各风险因素进行定量分析与评价,得出了各风险因素的风险等级,为决策者进行风险决策提供了科学的依据。     

高技术项目投资风险评价的研究

在对高技术项目投资风险因素分析的基础上,构造项目风险的评价指标体系,建立基于模糊数学和BP神经网络的项目风险评价模型,运用实例对BP神经网络进行了训练和检测,取得了较好的结果.该方法有利于技术创新的控制和创新项目投入的正确决策,提高企业稀缺技术资源的利用效率.     

基于ANN的供应链风险评估模型及策略研究

一、供应链风险评价指标体系 1．供应链风险产生因素分析 供应链的风险比企业经营风险更为危险．因为其不确定性因素不仅仅取决于单个企业．整个供应链中任何一个环节的失误都会为整个供应链企业带来不确定性的损失。因此，对供应链中的风险因素进行分析势在必行。供应链上影响风险产生的不确定性因素主要有：     

新形势下企业投资风险与防范以房地产企业为例

风险管理的意义不仅在于风险预测,而且在于通过科学的分析,合理的鉴别,拟订预防风险的措施。有效地控制风险不仅会降低风险发生的可能性、减少不必要的损失,还可以科学合理的应对已经发生的风险事件,进而降低风险损失。研究钢材消费的重要领域房地产企业投资风险与防范,分析房地产公司投资风险的分类和指标,选取F地产为研究对象,对实际调查中搜集到的相关数据进行处理,并在此基础上分析房地产投资风险的现状,而后分别制定了权衡投资收益与风险,优化负债结构提高资金周转率,坚持多元化投资战略,合理确定负债率和融资结构的应对措施,确保企业投资利益得到保障。     

燃煤火力发电项目风险评价研究

针对燃煤火力发电项目技术要求高、投资金额大、周期长的特点而导致项目投资风险较大的现状,运用科学的方法分析项目风险因素,通过全面梳理燃煤火力发电项目的风险点,从市场风险、技术风险、工程风险、资金风险、政策风险和其他风险6个维度构建了指标体系,并运用模糊层次分析法构建了燃煤火力发电项目风险评价模型,以确定各个风险因素对项目的影响程度,为实际项目风险评估提供科学依据。最后运用神华集团1 000 MW项目进行实证分析,结果表明:构建的模型具有较强可实施性和操作性,对燃煤火力发电项目的风险评价有一定的指导意义。     

投资项目风险管理优先度评价研究

随着投资项目复杂程度日益增加，其所面临的风险因素也日益增多，项目管理者不仅要识别、分析这些因素，还要对其管理优先度进行评价，以把有限的资源投入到优先度高的风险因素管理中去，从而提高项目风险管理的效率。本文通过对风险管理技术发展过程中四个代表模型的对比分析，结合投资项目的风险特点，在VaR及RAROC模型的基础上构建了投资项目风险管理优先度评价指标体系，进而建立了模糊综合评价模型，以供投资项目风险管理决策使用。     

模糊综合评价模型在企业跨国并购风险评价中的应用

跨国并购是否能够达到既定目标,与企业对并购活动的风险评价密切相关。在分析我国企业跨国并购自有特征的基础上,构建了一套跨国并购风险综合评价指标体系。在此评价指标体系的基础上,运用模糊数学原理,建立了企业进行跨国并购时的风险综合评价模型。将此模型应用于案例进行了说明。为企业进行并购决策提供了一种科学合理的技术。     

供给侧背景下的煤炭企业融资风险研究

从供给侧改革的内涵出发,就供给侧改革背景下影响煤炭企业融资的因素进行了分析和探讨,结合AHP模糊综合评价的基本原理,构建煤炭企业融资风险评价指标体系,并结合该模型对煤炭企业的融资风险进行实证,进而验证了上述评价指标体系构建的可行性和正确性,为科学评价煤炭企业融资风险提供了借鉴参考。     

实物期权方法在房地产开发中的应用——用B-S模型计算等待期权的价值

实物期权作为一种指导投资决策的思维方法，在国外发展的较为成熟，尤其是用于资源开发型企业，本对如何将这种方法应用于房地产开发企业做一简单的介绍，在介绍实物期权的概念后先后从定性和定量的角度说明这个方法的应用。     

关于房地产投资风险类型的研究

本借鉴了证券投资组合理论和资本资产定价模型的思想，将房地产投资风险划分为系统风险和非系统风险，并结合我国的实际情况，对房地产投资风险的类型进行了深入的研究。     

Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations

We examine how the predictability of real estate returns affects the risk of, and optimal allocations to, real estate for investors of differing investment horizons. Returns to direct real estate are mean reverting, and risk decreases with horizon. This is driven by a tendency for property transaction prices to overshoot inflation. Mean reversion in real estate returns is weaker than that of equities, resulting in real estate having similar risk to equities for long-term investors. However, optimal portfolios have large allocations to direct real estate at all horizons, and the allocation increases with horizon. Finally, we find that real estate investment trusts are a redundant asset class for investors with access to direct real estate as an asset class, but they do have a role in optimal allocations when direct property investment is not feasible.     

对发展房地产投资基金的SWOT分析

通过对房地产资金来源及我国房地产目前的融资途径分析，揭示了目前我国房地产存在的金融风险，指出发展房地产投资基金是一种可以拓宽房地产融资渠道的途径。结合当前我国房地产市场的实际情况，使用SWOT分析办法对房地产投资基金进行了综合研究。     

对投资性房地产准则理论与实务角度的思考

投资性房地产准则是38项具体准则中新增的准则之一,其内容体现了与国际会计准则的趋同。本文从以公允价值计量模式对投资性房地产进行后续计量对企业的影响进行讨论,同时也对这一计量模式不成熟的地方提出了相关建议。     

房地产投资分析浅析

房地产投资分析是房地产投资决策的基础，所涉及的内容较多。章通过对消费、投资地域、资金筹集和投资项目4个方面分析，详细地阐述了影响房地产投资决策的各种主要因素，提出将房地产投资风险降至最低的建议。     

论房地产企业如何面对房地产信贷改革

中国人民银行颁布的《关于进一步加强房地产信贷业务管理的通知》，给房地产行业带来了新的问题和风险。主要表现在金融链条收紧，融资渠道变窄，行业竞争加剧。房地产企业应怎样应对，怎么改革?章提出了推进金融产品创新拓展融资渠道，把握市场定位和完善行业管理体系等建议。     

Real Estate Fund Openings and Cannibalization

This article examines the trade‐offs in launching new real estate funds, specifically open‐end, direct‐property funds. This investment vehicle, which is designed to provide the risk‐return benefits of private market real estate, is available to retail investors in a number of countries. At the same time, these funds are also subject to liquidity risk, because they hold an inherently illiquid asset in an open‐end structure. This format presents fund‐family managers with unique challenges, particularly with the decision to open new funds. The data consist of 2,127 German fund openings across 76 fund families in 12 asset classes over the 1992–2010 period. Including a wide range of asset classes allows for a comparison between real estate and other investment objectives. We find a substantial cannibalization effect across the existing real estate funds of a family, while we note the opposite effect—i.e., flows into existing funds increase following a fund opening within the same objective—for all other asset classes. Our analysis of fund opening determinants shows that inflows mitigate the cannibalization risk for new real estate funds. Additional evidence highlights the role of scale and scope economies in real estate fund openings. Overall, the results provide new insights into the relatively large size and small number of real estate funds when compared to mutual funds dedicated to other investment objectives.     

Heterogeneous Investor Sentiment and Institutional Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate investors differ in their sentiment due to factors such as market expertise, investment strategies and expectations about future market conditions. Focusing on the office market, we investigate whether investors with a multiasset investment focus such as pension funds or insurance companies rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors such as public REITs or private developers/owners as source of information in their investment decision‐making. Using disaggregated sentiment measures and vector autoregression (VAR) we find evidence that changes in REIT and private real estate investor sentiment lead to changes in institutional investor sentiment in the suburban office and office REIT market. Our findings suggest that institutional investors rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors to make real estate investment decisions. Our study contributes to the existing literature on sentiment in commercial real estate markets by emphasizing the heterogeneity of investor sentiment and introducing a disaggregated sentiment measure. We also contribute to the institutional herding literature.     

Product Market Competition and Corporate Real Estate Investment under Demand Uncertainty

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes the interactions among corporate real estate investment, product market competition and firm risk. In our model, firms own strategic real estate or lease generic real estate. Our model predicts that strategic real estate ownership is positively correlated with industry concentration and negatively related to demand uncertainty. Also, firm risk is higher for firms with more strategic real estate operating in a more concentrated market. This prediction arises because smaller investments induce greater market competition, which effectively eliminates the right tail of the firm's profit distribution. We provide strong empirical support for our predictions. In particular, firm value is more volatile in less competitive markets for a given level of demand uncertainty.