Viewpoint: Measuring the well‐being of the poor with income or consumption: a Canadian perspective

Abstract There is a long tradition of using consumption measures derived from Statistics Canada's household expenditures surveys to study material well‐being, inequality, and poverty. We offer an introduction to this research. Income and consumption measures give different pictures of the patterns of material well‐being in Canada, but the differences are not as large as in the US. We also provide a comparison to Meyer and Sullivan's results on data quality. Canadian expenditure surveys are of high quality. Unique aspects of these surveys (variation in quality control measures over time and the possibility of comparing to income tax data) provide important insights into the quality of survey data on income and consumption.     

MEASURING PRO-POORNESS: A UNIFYING APPROACH WITH NEW RESULTS

Recent economic literature on pro-poor growth measurement is drawn together, using a common analytical framework which lends itself to some significant extensions. First, a new class of pro-poorness measures is defined, to complement existing classes, with similarities and differences which are fully discussed. Second, all of these measures of pro-poorness can be decomposed across income sources or components of consumption expenditure (depending on the application). This permits the analyst to "unbundle" a pattern of growth, revealing the contributions to overall pro-poorness of constituent parts. Third, all of these pro-poorness measures can be modified to measure pro-poorness at percentiles. An application to consumption expenditures in Indonesia in the 1990s reveals that the poverty reduction achieved remains far below what would have been achieved under distributional neutrality. This can be tracked back to changes in expenditure components.     

CALCULATING A PRICE INDEX FOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN: IMPLICATIONS FOR MEASURING TRENDS IN CHILD POVERTY RATES

This paper investigates the effects of varying consumption patterns for families with and without children on measured trends in child poverty. We first use data from consumer expenditure surveys to calculate price indices by family type. We next examine the effect of using these group-specific price indices on measured trends in child poverty. Although we find that, all else equal, children increase the cost of living, our calculations indicate that on average families with children experienced relatively lower inflation rates than families without children during the 1968 to 1987 period. While this result suggests that estimates of child poverty rates calculated using an average price index may have over-stated secular increases in child poverty, we find that child poverty rates calculated using a price index specific lo families with children are not substantively different from those calculated using an average index for all families.     

Economic well-being and poverty among the elderly: An analysis based on a collective consumption model

We apply the collective consumption model of Browning et al. (2010) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that governs the intra-household allocation of resources. The model is applied to a time series of Dutch consumption expenditure surveys. Our empirical results indicate substantial economies of scale and a wife's share that is increasing in total expenditures. We further calculated two sets of poverty rates: one based on the collective consumption model and one based on the traditional approach with a standard equivalence scale. Poverty among widowers is underestimated by the traditional approach. The same is true for women (men) in elderly couples for the first (later) time periods in our analysis. Finally, we analysed the impact of becoming a widow(er). Based on cross-sectional evidence, we find that the drop in material well-being following the husband's death is rather substantial for women. For men, the picture is reversed.     

Exploring Alternative Measures of Welfare in the Absence of Expenditure Data

We consider an asset-based alternative to the standard use of expenditures in defining well-being and poverty. Our motivation is to see if there exist simpler and less demanding ways to collect data to measure economic welfare and rank households. This is particularly important in poor regions where there is limited capacity to collect consumption, expenditure and price data. We evaluate an index derived from a factor analysis on household assets using multipurpose surveys from several countries. We find that the asset index is a valid predictor of a crucial manifestation of poverty—child health and nutrition. Indicators of relative measurement error show that the asset index is measured as a proxy for long-term wealth with less error than expenditures. Analysts may thus prefer to use the asset index as an explanatory variable or as a means of mapping economic welfare to other living standards and capabilities such as health and nutrition.     

Does urbanization reduce rural poverty? Evidence from Vietnam

This paper uses data from household surveys to contribute to the urbanization-poverty nexus literature by assessing the effect of urbanization on income, expenditure, and poverty in rural households in Vietnam. We find that the urbanization process stimulates the transition from farm to non-farm activities in rural areas. More specifically, urbanization tends to reduce farm income and increase wages and non-farm income in rural households. This suggests that total income and consumption expenditure of rural households are more likely to increase with urbanization. Finally, we find also that urbanization helps decrease the expenditure poverty rate of rural households, albeit by a small magnitude.     

Innovation spending and productivity growth in the German economy 1980–1986

A newly developed technique involving vertically integrated input-output sectors is used to examine the relationship between labour productivity and innovation expenditures in the German economy during the period 1980 to 1986. The productivity measures used, dubbed Harrod-Robinson-Read (HRR), take into account the direct and indirect labour used in each consumption goods sector. Included in these measures is the labour content of new capital investment.

The HRR measures show higher rates of productivity growth in most sectors, compared to the simple direct labour requirements measures. This is due to the fact that the HRR measures take into account the increased efficiency with which new capital is produced. The second part of the study examines the relationship between labour productivity and innovation expenditures as measured by the IFO (Institute for Economic Research – Munich) innovation survey. Using cross section data for 58 German industries, a strong correlation was found between direct labour productivity growth and direct innovation expenditure.

These results suggest that with more detailed capital expenditure data it should be possible to describe more precisely the relationships between innovation activity, spending on new capital, and productivity changes. The key to examining these relationships in more detail is the growing wealth of information contained in recent innovation surveys such as those done by the IFO.     

Testing Prediction Performance of Poverty Models: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

This paper examines the performance of a method of predicting poverty rates. Because most developing countries cannot justify the expense of frequent household budget surveys, additional low‐cost methods have been developed and used. The prediction method is based on a model linking the proportion of poor households to suitable explanatory variables (consumption proxies). These consumption proxies are variables that can be collected at much lower cost through smaller annual surveys. Several applications have shown that such models can produce poverty estimates with confidence intervals of a similar magnitude to the poverty estimates from the household budget surveys. There is, however, limited evidence of how well the methods perform out‐of‐sample. A series of seven household budget surveys conducted in Uganda in the period 1993–2005 allows us to test the prediction performance of the model. We test the poverty models by using data from one survey to predict the proportion of poor households in other surveys, and vice versa. The results are encouraging, as all models predict similar poverty trends. Although in most cases the predictions are precise, sometimes they differ significantly from the poverty level estimated from the survey directly.     

Improving Estimates of Inequality and Poverty from Urban China's Household Income and Expenditure Survey

In urban China the Household Income and Expenditure Survey requires respondents to keep a daily expenditure diary for a full 12-month period. This onerous reporting task makes it difficult to recruit respondents, compromising the sample. This article uses monthly expenditure data from two urban areas of China to see if data collection short-cuts, such as extrapolating to annual totals from expenditure reports in only some months of the year, would harm the accuracy of annual expenditure, inequality and poverty estimates. Replacing 12-month diaries with simple extrapolations from either one, two, four or six months would cause a sharp increase in estimates of annual inequality and poverty. This undermines international comparisons of inequality statistics because no country other than China uses such comprehensive 12-month expenditure records. But a corrected form of extrapolation, based on correlations between the same household's expenditures in different months of the year, gives much smaller errors in estimates of inequality and poverty.     

Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries

The authors make two contributions to the debate on aid‐effectiveness, illustrating that for impact on poverty what matters is not just the level but also the composition and stability of aid. One specific implication of this for aid policy is that aid most effectively reduces poverty if it supports public (and other) expenditures which are supportive of agricultural development. Regression analysis confirms that these are not only direct expenditure on agriculture, but also on education and infrastructure, and military expenditure has a negative impact. Three factors appear to be particularly conducive to the development of stable pro‐poor expenditure patterns (and in particular pro‐agriculture expenditure patterns). These are expenditure strategies which protect the poor against risk, the development of stable relations between governments and aid donors, and long‐term political commitment to pro‐poor strategies by government. The argument is pursued partly by panel‐data econometric analysis of developing countries as a whole, and partly by case studies of sustained and non‐sustained green revolutions in heavily aid‐dependent countries in Africa.     

Lessons from the recent economic crisis: the Australian household stimulus package

This paper provides an impact evaluation analysis of the 2009 Australian Household Stimulus Package, which was composed by three main cash payments: the Back to School Bonus, the Single Income Family Bonus and the Tax Bonus for Working Australians. Using panel data from the 2008 and 2009 HILDA surveys, the results show that these cash payments reduced the risk of poverty and stimulated consumption expenditure. Nonetheless, only the Back to School Bonus and the Single Income Family Bonus were really important in achieving these goals, while the Tax Bonus for Working Australians did not contribute to stimulate consumption and failed to reduce the risk of poverty. Thus, the analysis confirms the crucial role of governments to protect the most vulnerable groups avoiding a dramatic deterioration of social outcomes and favoring a fast economic recovery when interventions are timely and well-targeted.     

Do household definitions matter in survey design? Results from a randomized survey experiment in Mali

Household definitions used in multi-topic household surveys vary between surveys but have potentially significant implications for household composition, production, and poverty statistics. Standard definitions of the household usually include some intersection of keywords relating to residency requirements, common food consumption, and intermingling of income or production decisions. Despite best practices intending to standardize the definition of the household, it is unclear which types of definitions or which intersections of keywords in a definition result in different household compositions. This paper conducts a randomized survey experiment of four different household definitions in Mali to examine the implications for household-level statistics. This approach permits analysis of the trade-offs between alternative definition types. We find that additional keywords in definitions increase rather than decrease household size and significantly alters household composition. Definitions emphasizing common consumption or joint production increase estimates of the levels of household assets and consumption statistics, but not on per adult equivalency asset and consumption statistics, relative to open-ended definitions of the household. In contrast, definition type did not affect production statistics in levels, though we observe significant differences in per adult equivalency terms. Our findings suggest that variations in household definition have implications for measuring household welfare and production.     

MEASURING POVERTY AND DEPRIVATION IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper compares a standard expenditure-based poverty measure with a specifically created composite measure of deprivation using household survey data from South Africa. While there is a strong overall correlation between expenditures and levels of deprivation, the correlation is much weaker among the worst-off South Africans. In addition, the two measures differ considerably in the impact of race, headship, location (urban, rural), and household size on expenditure poverty versus deprivation. In general, the deprivation measure finds more Africans, rural dwellers, members of de facto female-headed households, and members of smaller households deprived than expenditure poor. Only the differences in the effect of household size on poverty are sensitive to assumptions about equivalence scales. As a result, the two measures diverge greatly in identifying the poorest and most deprived sections of the population, which may have considerable consequences for targeting.     

Competition and the cost of health care

Previous studies of the underreporting of income for tax purposes have used private employees as the benchmark to which other groups’ compliance was measured. In this paper it is suggested that there are a number of circumstances when there will be an incentive for private employees and their employers to collude to understate employee wages and salaries for purposes of taxation. The existence of high marginal tax rates of income tax combined with high social security payroll taxes are the typical conditions that stimulate this behaviour. These conditions are present in North Cyprus. This paper examines a rich source of household consumption expenditure and income data for North Cyprus that allows one to separate out the consumption expenditures made by the self-employed, private employees and civil servants over specific periods of time. From the comparison of consumption expenditures on food by these three groups it is possible to estimate how much self-employed and the private employees understated their incomes as compared to the civil servants. It is found that in North Cyprus private employees understate their incomes by approximately the same proportion of their incomes as do the self-employed.     

相对政府支出对人民币实际汇率的影响

政府支出通过资源的退出渠道和消费的转移渠道影响实际汇率.本文首先讨论政府支出对实际汇率影响的模型,利用协整的方法对现实的数据进行了检验,证明了中美两国相对政府非贸易品人均支出、相对政府人均支出和人民币实际汇率之间存在长期的稳定关系,然后利用误差修正模型对这三者的均衡方程做了估计,并得到了中美两国相对政府非贸易品人均支出、相对政府人均支出通过资源退出渠道和消费转移渠道对人民币实际汇率影响的长期效果.     

中国城市老年人贫困程度的探讨

根据国际流行的贫困距指数研究方法，在中国老龄科研中心1992年调查和2000年调查数据的基拙上，以城市老年人家庭作为计量单位，从支出口径探讨了中国部分省、直辖市的城市老年人90年代贫困的状况和发展趋势。对比了两次调查相同省份城市低收入老年人群体的收入变化情况。这一特定群体的老年人在90年代收入增长缓慢，有可能陷入以收入口径侧量的深度贫困。对如何改善城市贫困老年人的救助提出了对策建议。     

利用线性支出系统ELES测定贫困线的实证分析--兼比较几种贫困标准

本文认为,现阶段线性支出系统ELES可以用来衡量相对贫困程度。该方法不仅适合制定全国贫困标准,也适合制定各地区贫困标准。ELES借助一般抽样调查的统计分组数据即可得到具体分析结果,具有较强的实用性。相关部门可以通过抽样调查得出居民的基本消费需求,在此基础上对ELES分析法得出的基本消费需求额进行修正,从而确定符合实际情况的贫困线。现行的各种国际贫困线标准较高,因而不符合中国实际情况。     

Examining energy poverty in Chinese households: An Engel curve approach

This article is first to model energy poverty in Chinese households using an Engel curve approach. To analyse the determinants of energy poverty and energy expenditures across households, we avail the 2015 wave of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS). Possible presence of endogeneity is accounted for in the model specification as well as by using the Lewbel heteroscedasticity identified endogenous variables estimator. In addition, we are the first to scrutinise disparity and discrimination by conducting the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition of energy poverty model by gender, ethnicity, region (Eastern vs. non-Eastern provinces), and urbanisation status (rural vs. urban residents). Our analysis shows: (i) education is the key determinant of various energy poverty measures and energy expenditure shares across Chinese households; (ii) other determinants including fossil fuel mix and electricity price discrimination are found to worsen energy poverty, on average. However, fossil fuel mix is found to increase expenditure share of total energy, electricity, and coal and decrease that of biomass; and (iii) the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition analyses show no statistically significant gender or ethnic discrimination in energy poverty rates. However, there is substantial divide between Eastern and non-Eastern provinces and between rural and urban households—with these groups also discriminated against when accessing clean cooking fuels and technologies. The Blinder–Oaxaca results also generally support the logistic and the Lewbel energy poverty model findings.     

How did the world's poorest fare in the 1990s?

Drawing on 297 national sample surveys spanning 88 countries, we find that there was a net decrease in the overall incidence of both absolute and relative consumption poverty between 1987 and 1998. But it was not enough to reduce the total number of poor by various definitions. The incidence of absolute poverty fell in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East–North Africa, while it rose in Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe–Central Asia. Over the whole data set, interpersonal distribution improved slightly from the point of view of the poor, due mainly to growth in China.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF INTERNATIONAL POVERTY COMPARISONS

Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study, I study the sensitivity of cross-national income poverty comparisons to the method in which poverty is measured. Absolute poverty comparisons that keep the purchasing power at the poverty line constant across countries lead to conclusions that differ from relative poverty comparisons in which the real value of the poverty line varies with average income. The absolute poverty ranking of countries also varies as the real value of the poverty line is lowered. Cross-national differences in household characteristics are largely irrelevant in explaining poverty differences.