基于复杂网络的再保险市场系统性风险研究

近年来我国保险业快速发展,部分规模较大、复杂度较高的保险机构因与其他保险机构关联度高而居于再保险网络的核心,决定了再保险市场的系统性风险传播机制,对我国金融体系整体稳健性以及服务实体经济的能力具有重要影响,为此,迫切需要对系统重要性保险机构和保险业系统性风险进行识别判断。本文将再保险市场统计意义上的结论运用到风险传染动力学模型的构建中,使校准后的模型更贴近实际,研究了再保险国际化比率、破产阈值、紧急折价抛售系数、保险赔付占保险损失比率等因素对再保险市场稳健性的影响。运用最大熵理论解决了再保险交易对手方的信息不完全问题,寻求再保险转移矩阵和我国保险业发生系统性风险时总赔付额的临界点,研究发现我国的再保险复杂网络中有可能存在再保险旋涡,部分资金规模庞大且偿付能力充足的保险公司广泛进行再保险业务,导致风险集聚,但发生再保险旋涡的概率极其低,再保险复杂网络整体上十分稳健。论文探索了再保险市场的风险传播机制,论证了"联系太紧密而不能倒"的保险机构相比于"太大而不能倒"的保险机构,一旦倒闭对再保险市场稳健性的影响更大,为识别系统重要性保险机构,及早发现并防范保险业系统性风险提供了新的方法和思路。     

风险管控系统建设评价

风险管控评价是目前国内外理论界与实务界关注的重点,而关注焦点集中于风险管控系统运行期间的评价,对风险管控系统建设阶段的评价则鲜有涉及。本文以风险管控系统建设过程中的成本、进度和质量为对象,探讨如何构建和使用风险管控系统建设评价,为完善风险管控系统评价体系做有益的补充和尝试。     

基于银行同业网络与资产重叠的金融风险传染研究

本文分析当银行遭受不同类型初始冲击时,传染概率、传染范围、损失程度随资产多样化程度、初始冲击程度变化的分布情况。研究表明,在两类传染途径共同作用下,资产多样化程度和初始冲击程度很低时风险传染概率与范围仍呈现较高水平,资产多样化程度较高时风险传染概率与范围呈现较低水平;不同网络结构中资产多样化对于初始冲击具有不同的吸收能力,且传染范围呈现出明显的由稳定转向非稳定的相变过程;在传染范围稳定的区域,损失程度仍随资产多样化程度的增加而增大。     

An options-based approach to evaluating the risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assume a significant amount of interest and prepayment risk and all of the credit risk for about half of the $8 trillion U.S. residential mortgage market. Their hybrid government-private status, and the perception that they are too big to fail, make them a potentially large, but largely unaccounted for, risk to the federal government. Measuring the size and risk of this liability is technically difficult, but important for the debate over the appropriate regulation of these institutions. Here we take an options pricing approach to evaluating these costs and risks. Under the base case assumptions, the estimated value of the guarantees is $7.9 billion over 10 years, with a combined .5 percent value at risk of $122 billion. We evaluate the sensitivity of these estimates to various modeling assumptions, and also to the regulatory regime, including forbearance policies and capital requirements. The analysis highlights the benefits, but also the challenges, of taking an options-based approach to evaluating the value of federal credit guarantees.     

A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt

Using an integrated model to control for simultaneity, as well as new risk measurement techniques such as Adapted Exposure CoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), we show that the aggregate systemic risk exposure of financial institutions is positively related to sovereign debt yields in European countries in an episodic manner, varying positively with the intensity of the financial crisis facing a particular nation. We find evidence of a simultaneous relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt yields. This suggests that models of sovereign debt yields should also include the systemic risk of a country's financial system in order to avoid potentially important mis-specification errors. We find evidence that systemic risk of a country's financial institutions and the risk of sovereign governments are inter-related and shocks to these domestic linkages are stronger and longer lasting than international risk spillovers. Thus, the channel in which domestic sovereign debt yields can be affected by another nation's sovereign debt is mostly an indirect one in that shocks to a foreign country's government finances are transmitted to that country's financial system which, in turn, can spill over to the domestic financial system and, ultimately, have a destabilizing effect on the domestic sovereign debt market.     

A Critical Theory and Postmodernist approach to the teaching of accounting theory

This paper outlines my teaching philosophy for the Accounting Theory subject. A Critical Theory and Postmodernist approach is recommended, which makes full use of non-accounting “tangential” material [Boyce G. Critical accounting education: teaching and learning outside the circle. Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):565–86] and material from popular culture [Kell P. A teacher's tool kit: an introduction to social theory. In: Allen J, editor. Sociology of education: possibilities and practices. 3rd ed. Southbank, Melbourne: Social Science Press; 2004. p. 29–51 [chapter 2]; Nilan P. ‘Reality TV’? School students and popular culture. In: Allen J, editor. Sociology of education: possibilities and practices. 3rd ed. Southbank, Melbourne: Social Science Press; 2004. p. 306–21 [chapter 14]]. The paper discusses some classroom interactive activities, as well as interview results from interviews conducted with 11 international students and one Australian student at Charles Sturt University. The teaching approach proposed in this paper is to conduct classroom interactive activities which study theories and research results from a range of disciplines in order to illustrate key points that apply equally as much to accounting theories and the accounting research process, e.g. the Positive/Normative dichotomy. Classroom interactive activities are discussed in class using the “dialogical approach” to education recommended by Freire [Freire P. Pedagogy of the oppressed. London: Pelican; 1996], Kaidonis [Kaidonis MA. Teaching and learning critical accounting using media texts as reflexive devices: conditions for transformative action or reinforcing the status quo? Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):667–73], Boyce [Boyce G. Critical accounting education: teaching and learning outside the circle. Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):565–86], and Thomson [Thomson I, Bebbington J. It doesn’t matter what you teach? Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):609–28]. Once students gain experience in studying material from outside accounting, the interview results suggest that they are then better motivated [Wynder M. Creative management accountants: short case studies to promote creativity in the classroom. In: Paper presented at the Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand annual conference; 2006] and better equipped to study and evaluate accounting theories.     

大学生班级归属感与英语自主学习能力的相关性研究

通过对149位英语专业的大二本科生开展问卷调查,旨在探究班级归属感与英语自主学习能力之间的相关性。研究结果表明：目前我国二本院校英语专业本科生具有良好的班级归属感,且具备了一定的英语自主学习能力;学习者的英语自主学习能力与其班级归属感呈显著的正相关关系;班级归属感在英语自主学习能力的发展过程中发挥积极的作用。     

内蒙古大学生对武术课教学的认同感及课堂承载能力的分析

论文通过对内蒙古高校选修武术课的615名学生的武术课教学的认同感及课堂承载能力的主观认识的调查,分析大学生对武术课的态度,提出提高武术课教学效果的建议和措施。     

当前国库业务风险管理审计的实践与改进的重点

国库业务风险管理审计是指在国库部门进行风险管理的基础上,通过对国库业务的风险管理状况进行审计,审查并评价国库部门风险管理的适当性和有效性,针对国库部门在业务风险管理中存在的薄弱环节及风险隐患,提出改进国库部门的风险管理的意见和建议,加强风险防范意识,提升国库部门的业务风险管理的科学性和有效性,保障国库资金安全。本文以中国人民银行海口中心支行内审部门开展国库业务风险管理审计的实践,介绍国库业务风险管理审计的内容、风险评价的标准及模型、检查测试方法等,探讨风险管理审计在中国人民银行内部审计工作的实际应用。     

财政风险与国债结构管理--从国债再融资角度的分析

国债风险是财政风险中的核心内容，控制风险的思路不能囿于国债总量的控制，还要注重国债结构管理所能发挥的作用。本文从国再融资资风险的角度，分析了国债结构管理在防范财政风险中的作用，并对我国国债现状进行了实证分析。最后，笔者提出，为降低我国财政风险，目前应该增加长期债券比例，形成一个均衡的债务期限。     

Pricing of Defaultable Bonds with Log-Normal Spread: Development of the Model and an Application to Argentinean and Brazilian Bonds During the Argentine Crisis

In this paper we describe a two-factor model for a defaultable discount bond, assuming log-normal dynamics with bounded volatility for the instantaneous short rate spread. Under some simplified hypothesis, we obtain an explicit barrier-type solution for zero recovery and constant recovery. We also present a numerical application for Argentinean and Brazilian Sovereign Bonds during the default crisis of Argentina.JEL Classification: G 13     

央行区域金融风险监测体系构建中存在的问题及改革建议

在国际金融危机持续恶化对中国经济金融产生明显影响的背景下,有效的提升央行的区域金融风险监测水平．对经济安全运行和金融稳定具有重要意义。文章首先分析了央行的区域金融风险监测体系,其次对其存在的问题与原因进行了探讨,最后对于如何完善区域金融风险监测体系提出有关对策建议。     

A productivity growth accounting approach to the ranking of developing and developed nations

Productivity growth accounting studies generally focus on productivity growth or decline in more developed countries such as the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members. In this paper, we develop a generalized efficiency index for a much larger set of 57 national governments (NGs), both developing and developed, by employing four components of gross national product and five resource-availability indicators. Using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) linear-programming approach, we maximize the components of Gross National Product (GNP), subject to minimizing specific resource-input measures. If used with appropriate precautions, the DEA-based comparative production-efficiency measures developed here can be used by individual NGs and international organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to make equitable and sustainable lending-allocation decisions in the public and private sectors of the increasingly interdependent global economy.     

Volatility linkages of the equity,bond and money markets: an implied volatility approach

This study proposes an alternative approach for examining volatility linkages between Standard & Poor's 500, Eurodollar futures and 30 year Treasury Bond futures markets using implied volatility from the three markets. Simple correlation analysis between implied volatilities in the three markets is used to assess market correlations. Spurious correlation effects are considered and controlled for. I find that correlations between implied volatilities in the equity, money and bond markets are positive, strong and robust. Furthermore, I replicate the approach of Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998) to check the substitutability of the implied volatility approach and find that the results are nearly identical; I conclude that my approach is simple, robust and preferable in practice. I also argue that the results from this paper provide supportive evidence on the information content of implied volatilities in the equity, bond and money markets.     

Pricing the Risks of Default: A Note on Madan and Unal

In their well-known article, Madan and Unal (1998) presented one of the first intensity-based credit risk models. In this approach the default intensity is directly linked to the market value of the firm's equity. In order to derive the probability of default Madan and Unal have to solve a partial differential equation (PDE). Here, we show that one of the transformations in the derivation of the solution of this PDE is not correct and analyze the difference between the correct solution of the PDE and the solution based on the incorrect transformation. As a consequence of the transformation error the credit risk of a debtor is systematically underestimated.     

中小企业信用担保机制探析

目前,我国中小企业信用担保体系的建立还存在以下阻碍:缺少必要的风险补偿机制、信用担保风险呈多元化、缺少法律的有效支持。建议借鉴国外的经验,结合我国的现实情况,制定切实可行的完善对策。     

Optimization of a firm's capital structure: A quantitative approach based on a probabilistic prognosis of risk and time of bankruptcy

This article develops a new probabilistic approach to the problem of optimization of a firm's capital structure. The main idea of the approach is straightforward. As a possible firm's bankruptcy is the principal factor restricting the amount of borrowed capital, we assess the probabilities of bankruptcy at various time horizons in the future dependent on the proportion of debt capital and other indices of a firm's current financial position and then calculate how these probabilities influence the firm's value.We identify a set of factors determining conditions of existence and the value of the optimal debt/equity ratio. These include the characteristics of a firm's debt (proportion of short-term component of the debt, cost of service, and maturity horizons of long-term component), characteristics of a firm's ability to pay the debt, and some macroeconomic factors.We represent dependencies of optimal debt/equity ratio and gains in a firm's value on the main influencing factors.The approach is based on real data of real firms and does not use superfluously formalized models. We believe it can be used in practical capital structure decisions although specific calculations must be fulfilled for each firm that needs such decision.     

外资银行资产风险集中度监管比较研究及启示

资产风险集中度是各国外资银行审慎监管制度体系顺利运行的前提与基础，在对比各国银行法中有关外资银行资产集中度的监管规定基础上，应从以下几方面完善我国现有监管制度体系，一是根据法律地位的不同，在与母国签订双边监管合作协议的框架下，对外资银行子行、合资银行和分行提出不同的监管资本充足率要求；二是以全面风险管理流程为基础，增强现有监管制度的弹性和有效性；三是建立大额风险敞口定期报告及预警机制。     

金融内审存在的问题及其改进建议

加强金融内审是加强金融企业内部管理和防范经营风险的必然要求。与发达国家相比,我国金融内审起步较晚,发展过程中还存在着体制机制、审计手段创新、审计功能发挥等方面问题,制约了我国金融内审工作的发展。加强金融内审,对有效防范金融风险、规范经营行为、促进金融业的健康发展具有重要的意义。