Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal

In this paper the Johansen cointegration analysis of time series is used to model the Portuguese inbound international tourism demand from five countries of origin—France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and UK. This approach examines the long‐run relationships between the demand for holiday visits and the variables that affect holiday travel such as income, destination prices and travel costs (airfares and road costs). Demand functions, for each country of origin, are estimated using annual data on tourism flows from 1975 to 1997. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating an origin–destination table for US imports of waterborne containerized freight

Containerized freight imports into the US are growing at an average of 10% per year. This traffic is concentrated at a small number of US seaports. It is therefore important to have an accurate understanding of the flow of containers from their origin country through these seaports to their final destination. This paper develops an optimization model to estimate route flows and a corresponding multi-modal origin–destination table for containers by synthesizing data on international trade and railcar movements with a gravity model for the demand of container traffic. This analysis provides insights into the balance of rail and truck inland transportation from each port.     

The impacts of cultural values on bilateral international tourist flows: a panel data gravity model

This study explores the impacts of Hofstede’s six cultural dimensions on international tourist flows. A panel data gravity model was used to analyse bilateral tourist flows between 81 origin countries and 32 destination countries from 1995 to 2008. This model highlights cultural factors using the push and pull framework and explains their influence vis-a-vis self-image congruity theory, arousal theory, and cultural theory of risk. Results indicate that when controlling for the effects of distance, population, and GDP per capita, international tourists tend to flow out of countries with lower Power Distance, higher Individualism, lower Masculinity, higher Long-Term Orientation, and higher Indulgence. Countries with higher Individualism, lower Uncertainty Avoidance, and higher Indulgence tend to attract more international tourists. In the push and pull model, tourist source countries’ cultural values, such as low Power Distance, Individualism, Femininity, and Indulgence can be considered push factors in international travel, while destination countries’ cultural values of Individualism, Uncertainty Acceptance, and Indulgence act as pull factors. Self-image congruity theory is supported in the cultural dimension of Uncertainty Avoidance Index. Recommendations for destination marketing are made based on the findings.     

Migration and inbound tourism: an Italian perspective

This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian inbound tourism flows in a dynamic panel data framework. Arrivals, expenditure and nights from 65 countries are analysed for the period 2005–2011. The migration variable is defined at both origin and destination in order to assess the pushing and pulling forces. Estimates were performed using both aggregated flows and flows disaggregated to separate the visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) from two non-VFR categories, namely holiday and business. The results suggest the presence of a strong migration-tourism nexus, which clearly goes beyond VFRs. Moreover, the effects of the different determinants vary according to the way in which the tourism market is segmented and, within each segment, to the way in which tourism demand is measured.     

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

Determinants of performance for agritourism farms: an alternative approach

Previous studies on determinants of agritourism farm performance are inconclusive. Moreover, the key success factors of high and low performance may differ. Differing from previous studies, this study applies quantile regression to identify the determinants of agritourism farm performance in different categories based on Taiwanese agritourism farms census data. The results indicate that large farms perform well for those in the high-performance categories. The quantity and quality of human resources are key success factors for mid- and high-performance farms. Additionally, agritourism business model generally plays a critical role in determining performance.     

Estimating Tourist Demand through Cointegration Analysis: Swedish Data

The purpose of this paper is to use co-integration analysis to estimate the long-run relationship between monthly tourist flows to Sweden from American, European and Scandinavian countries. Also, the factors that influence arrivals, such as income, price, exchange rate, the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the 1991 Gulf War are estimated. An econometric model approach of cointegration analysis is adopted to estimate the effect of the above factors on the number of visitors to Sweden and the area No.6 in Sweden (SW:6). Monthly time-series data for the period 1980-1998 were used. The estimated model does not indicate any statistically significant effect of the Chernobyl nuclear accident, or the 1991 Gulf War on international tourism demand. On the other hand, the estimated model does indicate statistically significant effect of income, exchange rate and the consumer price index (CPI) on international tourism demand. The estimation and diagnostic testing strategy supports the specification of the model.     

Analysis of bilateral air passenger flows: A non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Gravity models have long served as a framework for analyzing bilateral flows, trade and many other activities. To estimate a gravity model, (parametric) linear regression techniques have been commonly employed to develop the relationship between passenger flows and factors that can significantly influence these flows. This study explores the application of an alternative method, the non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique, to identify the determinants for air passenger flows between pairs of countries. The data of 2006 and 2007 air passenger flows between pairs of countries in the APEC region were collected to develop the MARS models. Results indicate that distance between the countries, annual import value, national per capita income, unemployment rate and consumer price index of the origin country, as well as GDP, annual import value, and consumer price index of the destination country are significant determinants for bilateral air passenger flows.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

International tourism demand to Finnish Lapland in the early winter season

This paper investigates the determinants of international overnight stays to Finnish Lapland in the early winter season. The data are based on major winter destinations for the period 1996–2014 and are distinguished by nine major visitor countries. During the sample period, international overnight stays in December increased rapidly with a growth rate of nine per cent per year on average. Dynamic panel data models show that the effect of natural snow conditions on overnight stays varies across countries of origin. The amount of snow in December has a significant impact on overnight stays of visitors coming from neighbouring countries (Russia and Sweden). In contrast, snow conditions do not play a role for visitors from distant countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Spain and Switzerland). Economic factors (real income and real exchange rates) play a larger role for these countries.     

A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States

Demand for international air travel has risen over the past decade causing international visitation to the US to reach a record high in 2012. This paper assesses the dynamic impacts of GDP, exchange rate, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks on bilateral air travel flows between the US and its 11 major travel and trading partners. An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach is employed to estimate short- and long-run relationships between variables. Long-run results demonstrate foreign GDP as the major determinant of demand for inbound travel to the US and US GDP is a crucial factor affecting demand for outbound travel from the US. These findings support a strong linkage between economic growth and demand for international air travel. The real exchange rate has relatively little impact on the bilateral air travel flows. The US dollar appreciation against foreign currencies is found to reduce demand for inbound travel to the US, while having mixed effects on outbound travel from the US. In the short-run, economic growth tends to be a primary factor influencing international travel flows to and from the US. The 9/11 market shock has a detrimental short- and long-run effect on the bilateral air travel flows, implying that the impact of 9/11 is prolonged in international air travel markets.     

The role of agritourism in heritage preservation

This study examined the linkage between agritourism and heritage preservation by assessing the occurrence of and farmers' motivations for preserving tangible heritage in their farmlands. Results show that agritourism farmers are preserving tangible heritage in their farmlands, mainly driven by intrinsic motives. Farmland, farmer, and agritourism attributes are significantly associated with motivations driving heritage preservation. Study results suggest that although agritourism appears to be an adequate tool to preserve tangible heritage, farmers are missing the opportunity to economically gain from these resources, which may jeopardise the sustainability of their conservation efforts. This study not only advances the incipient understanding of the agritourism?heritage link, but identifies additional issues of this relationship that need to be investigated further.     

Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport

Air cargo demand is an important aspect of the operation and planning of private and public agencies responsible for airports. While most existing studies in this field include only geo-economic characteristics of airports and their hinterlands as explanatory variables, this study develops a gravity model of air cargo flows by trying to incorporate more factors that might influence international air cargo flows of an airport. The model is developed based on the panel data of air cargo services on scheduled routes at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport during the years 2004-2007. The results indicate that population, air freight rate and three dummy variables, including the regional economic bloc of the “Chinese Circle”(an informal partnership between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and mainland China), the Open Sky Agreements and long established colonial links, are key determinants of international air cargo flows from/to Taiwan. These results suggest a wider array of factors needs to be considered in policy.     

Gravitational force exerted by Brazilian tourist destinations on foreign air travelers

This article analyses the context of international tourist flows by air and tourism in Brazil, by applying the principles of the gravity model. The study includes 13 Brazilian international airports that served 108 origin-destination pairs, which accounted for 80.14% of the total tourist flows by air in 2012. In the statistical analysis applied, the dependent variable Ft is the tourist flow between the country of origin and the Brazilian state of destination. To approximate an explanatory equation, we formulated a linear function that was able to support, in 31.7% of the cases, the dependence of the international tourist flows with the variables considered in the linear regression performed. The conclusion is that the assumptions considered in this study only partially explain the gravitational force exerted by Brazilian tourist destinations, so there is a need to refine the model by including other variables that can influence the flows by air of international tourists.     

Broadening the utilitarian epistemology of agritourism research through children and families

ABSTRACT

The genesis of agritourism is rooted in diversifying income for farmers, and accordingly, epistemological framing of agritourism research has focused on understanding the direct economic value of farm visits. The literature has identified multiple measures of tourism values and we propose that a similar broad epistemological perspective is needed to expand the analysis of the full spectrum of benefits that agritourism can provide to farmers and food systems. We describe the potential, yet unmeasured, benefits of agritourism and propose to empirically examine the educational and marketing potential of agritourism through building agricultural literacy among young visitors and encouraging family-level support of local food systems. We offer this as one example of how to expand of the epistemological approach to agritourism research, which will allow for a more holistic account of its benefits.     

Moving beyond positivism: reflexive collaboration in understanding agritourism across North American boundaries

Extant agritourism studies have employed positivistic methodologies and quantitative approaches. As such, these approaches have predominately concluded that economics motives the diversification in agritourism at the expense of uncovering the complexity of multiple factors involved. Captured in this paper are the experiences of two, independent North American (agri)tourism researchers who used interpretative research approaches, specifically interpretative phenomenological analysis and appreciative inquiry, for getting at a deeper understanding of the complexity of agritourism on family farms. Agritourism is revealed as a transitional process, and supporting farms getting into agritourism would best be accomplished through building business skills and entrepreneurial capacities. Likewise, networks are critical, especially farmer-to-farmer connections. Interpretative research methods uncovered a more holistic and complex understanding of agritourism. This perspective will better inform farmers, their families, as well as policy-makers when they design and implement new businesses, programmes, and policies in the best interest of farm families and rural communities.     

Agritourism in the Arkansas delta byways: assessing the economic impacts

Large parts of rural USA are seeing gradual decline in economic fortunes. The small and medium scale farms are especially dwindling in numbers and their incomes are stagnating. Towards revitalizing the rural agrarian economies, agritourism is being seen as a catalyst to supplement income and trigger economic growth in some parts of the USA. This study focuses on a 15‐county region in the Arkansas Delta Byways (ADB) predominantly dependent on agriculture. The study uses agritourism visitor and expenditure data to estimate the baseline economic impacts in 2007 and predict potential impacts in 2012 on the region's economy. The study is conducted in two stages; the first stage involves statistical predictions of future agritourism visitors using time series extrapolation models. In the second stage, an input–output (I–O) framework is used to estimate the economic impacts relating to sales, employment, income and tax revenue to federal, state and local governments. Three alternate scenarios, where the agritourism visitors as a percentage of total visitors increases from the baseline level to hypothetical higher levels as a result of the state's agritourism promotion and initiatives are examined, and the net economic gain from additional visitors are estimated. Findings suggest that farms will benefit from increases in income but do not see any significant increase in jobs mainly due to the family nature of the enterprises. Economic benefits from on‐farm hunting far outstrip other agritourism activities and their impacts reverberate across many other sectors of the local economy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study of the non‐economic determinants in tourism demand

Traditionally, many studies have attempted to use economic demand models. This paper stresses on the influence of non‐economic factors on tourism demand. Some researchers have suggested that tourists from different origins have various cultural and nationalistic backgrounds, and they may interpret visual imagery and experiences differently. Aligning with this suggestion, we have investigated different underlying factors of tourism demand from four continents (Asia, the Americas, Europe and Oceania). Statistical data are collected from international organisations and 135 countries were covered. Our results showed that there are differences and similarities among the factors in determining the tourism demand. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aviation growth in the Middle East – impacts on incumbent players and potential strategic reactions

In order to wean their economies away from declining oil reserves some Middle Eastern countries pursue substantial investments into their aviation sector. The bulk of these investments concentrates on the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and comprises fleet expansions stoked by massive airport extensions and development projects. Following an assessment of current growth processes in the Middle East, this paper analyzes the impacts of this development on flight patterns as well as on the incumbent airlines and airport operators. Furthermore, fields for potential strategic reaction are presented.Our results show that Middle Eastern carriers will soon emerge as serious global competitors to the established carriers. Since there is no sufficient regional demand to fill their capacity, these carriers aim at redirecting international traffic flows from Europe and the Americas to Asia. As a result, major players particularly in Europe and Asia will be directly affected. However, our results also indicate that for some markets Middle Eastern players are unfavourably positioned concerning parameters like flight time and required connection flights.