中国电子货币工程的发展战略

在我国国民经济信息化建设不断推进、“九五”基本实现金融电子化的大环境下,以“金卡工程”为主体的货币电子化进程取得了飞跃性发展。传统货币正逐步向以计算机和通信技术为基础的、以银行卡、电子现金传输系统为主要载体的电子货币转化。电子货币工程,是一项有利于国家减少现钞发行量、有利于银行提高资金结算速度、有利于方便个人安全保管和使用现金的信息化工程。本刊开辟“电子货币工程”这一专栏,旨在引起各方有识之士对电子货币工程所涉及的业务、技术、产品、管理等各个层面的问题进行深入研究和探讨,以推动我国的货币电子化进程。本栏目欢迎各界人士赐稿。     

电子货币效应分析及我国电子货币管理对策研究

电子货币探讨研究是当前的热点问题。本文对电子货币的属性以及对宏观经济的影响进行了赋有新意的分析论证。在此基础上,结合我国电子货币发展现状,围绕管理对象、方式、重点展开了讨论,提出了切合实际的建议。     

电子商务的核心：电子货币

电子货币是Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ商业环境中必可少的支付工具,其应用的深度和广度必将影响电子商务的发展,并对银行业提出新的挑战。     

Precautionary money demand in a business-cycle model

Precautionary demand for money is significant in the data, and may have important implications for business-cycle dynamics of velocity and other nominal aggregates. Accounting for such dynamics is a standing challenge in monetary macroeconomics: standard business-cycle models that have incorporated money have failed to generate realistic predictions in this regard. In those models, the only uncertainty affecting money demand is aggregate. We investigate a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic uncertainty about liquidity need. The resulting precautionary motive for holding money produces substantial improvements in accounting for business-cycle behavior of nominal variables, at no cost to real variables.     

区域货币市场监管工作探索

吉林省支农资金的紧张带来了资金的供需缺口,推动地方金融机构通过场外货币市场进行的资金融通业务活跃,而交易动机、流动性管理方式、监管强度不一致等因素,助长了异常交易行为的发生。人民银行长春中心支行立足实践、大胆创新,改进监测方式和监管手段,通过建立风险预警指标体系,对地方性金融机构货币市场业务实施非现场监管,动态监测金融机构流动性状况和市场风险情况,从实践上取得了良好的效果。这些有益的探索和尝试,对开展区域货币市场监管有一定的借鉴意义和参考价值。     

电子货币对存款准备金制度的冲击效应研究

本文以电子货币为视角,将电子货币引入存款准备金制度的理论分析框架,在理论分析及对传统货币模型修正的基础上,选择电子货币与存款准备金政策相关的变量,建立数量经济模型。通过统计检验发现：电子货币放大了货币乘数,并使货币乘数变得不稳定,从而加大了中央银行通过存款准备金政策影响货币乘数来调节商业银行信用创造能力的难度,削弱了存款准备金政策的效率。     

2011年中国货币市场运行报告

2011年,货币市场继续保持稳步发展势头,其主要运行特点包括：市场规模稳步扩大;市场利率高位波动;市场对货币政策变化敏感度提高;市场融资结构发生变化;非银行类市场主体交易更加活跃,市场结构不断优化,市场功能进一步发挥。     

Implicit intraday interest rate in the UK unsecured overnight money market

This paper estimates the intraday value of money implicit in the UK unsecured overnight money market. Using transactions data on overnight loans advanced through the UK large value payments system CHAPS in 2003–2009, we find a positive and economically significant intraday interest rate. While the implicit intraday interest rate is quite small pre-crisis, it increases more than tenfold during the financial crisis of 2007–2009. The key interpretation is that an increase in implicit intraday interest rate reflects the increased opportunity cost of pledging collateral intraday and can be used as an indicator to gauge the stress of the payment system. We obtain qualitatively similar estimates of the intraday interest rate by using quoted intraday bid and offer rates and confirm that our results are not driven by the intraday variation in the bid-ask spread.     

关于中国货币流通速度对通胀影响的几个事实的研究

该文比较研究了中国、美国和欧元区不同时期货币流通速度的变动特征。研究发现：货币流通速度在经济和金融危机期间急剧下降,使得巨量的货币供给在短期内并不会带来严重通货膨胀;货币流通速度通常会受到资产价格上升的抑制,在一定条件下,资产价格上升与通货膨胀之间存在替代关系;货币流通速度在长期（10年以上）呈U型,中国可能已经进入货币流通速度的上升期,等量的货币供应可能对应更高的通胀水平。     

景气指数分析显示：专来一段时期内货币信贷增速将放缓

货币政策目标体系由最终目标、中间目标和操作目标三个层次构成,中央银行对它们的可控性由弱至强。为能够及时而有效地观测与控制货币政策的实施效果与力度,需要对便于观测与控制的货币政策中间目标进行有效的监测、预测与预警．文章应用基于先行指标体系的景气指数分析方法,分析货币政策中间目标的周期波动,揭示中间目标的运行趋向。测算结果显示,未来一段时期内货币信贷增速将放缓。     

Banking with nominal deposits and inside money

Bank runs in the literature take the form of withdrawals of demand deposits payable in real goods, which deplete a fixed reserve of goods in the banking system. That framework describes traditional bank runs based on currency withdrawals as occurred historically in the US and more recently in developing countries. However, in a modern banking system, large withdrawals typically take the form of electronic payments of inside money, with no analog of a depletion of a scarce reserve from the banking system. In a new framework of nominal demand deposits repayable in inside money, pure liquidity-driven bank runs do not occur. If there were excessive early withdrawals, nominal deposits would hedge the bank and flexible monetary prices in the goods market would limit real consumption. The maturity mismatch of short term liabilities and long term assets is not sufficient for multiple equilibria bank runs without other frictions. A key role of the bank is to ensure optimal real liquidity, which allows markets to optimally distribute consumption goods through the price mechanism.     

美国货币市场与联储救市政策工具的实施效果

金融危机爆发后,美国货币市场流动性几近枯竭,为重启和恢复货币市场功能,美联储新增多种政策工具向金融机构提供了大量流动性。该文重点分析了这些政策工具的设计意图及实施效果,指出实施救助后,美国货币市场运行趋于正常,但除短期国债市场外,其他子市场的融资量尚未恢复到危机前水平;美国货币市场的表现再现了美国实体经济的问题,而要解决这些问题,单靠联储的货币政策是远远不够的。     

对货币供应，产出缺口在通胀传导中机制的研究

随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。