Innovation and Growth: A Schumpeterian Model of Innovation Applied to Taiwan

Following Schumpeter, we assume that innovation in specific firms, or groups of firms, can have economy-wide effects. Models based on this idea can be shown to have multiple equilibria. The idea of a positive feedback loop innovation system, or POLIS, is formalized by picking an appropriate sequence of equilibria over time. It is shown that POLIS has empirical relevance by applying the formal model to an actual economy. The 1997-98 financial crisis in many Asian countries, most notably South Korea, seemed to have reversed the conventional wisdom regarding the "East Asian miracle". This paper applies the concept of a POLIS to the case of Taiwan to show that, at least in this case, neither the view that the miracle was a mirage nor the view that the growth was a result of factor accumulation only is correct. Ultimately, technological transformation--in particular the creation of a positive feedback loop innovation system--is what makes the difference between sustained growth and gradual or sudden decline. Although problems remain in both the real and the financial sectors, the successes of Taiwan in building the preconditions for an innovation system are worth examining. Upon careful examination of Taiwan's system of innovation within the above Schumpeterian model it is found that Taiwan has a fighting chance of building a POLIS in the near future.     

低碳约束下木材加工业全要素生产率研究

在考虑碳排放的基础上运用DEA-Malmquist指数测算了13个国家木材加工业的全要素生产率。对比分析1995~2009年发达国家与发展中国家木材加工业全要素生产率的发展变化情况。研究发现:总体而言,考虑CO2排放的木材加工业全要素生产率要高于传统全要素生产率,技术进步是全要素生产率增长的主要原因。低碳约束前后发达国家木材加工业全要素生产率平均水平要高于发展中国家。从1995年到2009年由于技术进步指数的变化引起了中国木材加工业全要素生产率较大的波动。根据实证分析结论,提出适当调整产业规模、提高产业技术创新水平等建议。     

埃及和土耳其林业与消除贫困考察报告

通过埃及土耳其两国林业建设与消除贫困进展的考察,对两国森林资源、管理以及林业发展与扶贫情况进行了详细介绍,其发展与中国有许多相似之处,因此,其教训对我国很有启示作用,其经验对我国很有借鉴作用。     

Rethinking the agrarian question: Agriculture and underdevelopment in the Global South

In recent years, agriculture has come to be seen as increasingly irrelevant to processes of industrialization and economic development in the Global South. The integration of developing economies into global capitalism and the continued advance of structural transformation would seem to indicate that there is no longer a classic “agrarian question” in the developing world. In other words, agriculture is no longer a major barrier to capitalist development in these countries. However, there is reason to doubt this growing consensus. This article argues for a rethinking of the agrarian question in the Global South and presents evidence that capitalist property relations have not penetrated agriculture throughout much of the developing world. Contrary to recent trends in the literature, I argue that not only is there still an agrarian question in the Global South but also that it remains central to explaining lower levels of industrialization in these countries and, thereby, their relative underdevelopment.     

Mapping fragmentation: Electronics and automobiles in East Asia and Latin America

"Fragmentation", the relocation of processes or functions across countries in response to cost and other differences, has important implications for development. We discuss the drivers of fragmentation and map it for electronics and automotives in East Asia (EA) and Latin America. For technical reasons, electronics is fragmenting faster world-wide than the auto industry. Electronics networks are more advanced, widespread and integrated in EA than Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and are largely responsible for EA's rapid export growth. The auto network is more advanced in LAC but is slower growing and is not integrated into a regional system. Apart from Mexico, LAC lacks an electronics network, partly accounting for the region's weak export performance. We offer insights into the following: Why do industries fragment differently? How can fragmentation be measured? Why does fragmentation in developing countries concentrate on EA and LAC? Why has fragmentation evolved differently in these two regions? Can other developing regions attract and benefit from fragmentation?     

Moving up the processing ladder in primary product exports: Sri Lanka's "value-added" tea industry

Governments in many developing countries, influenced by the experience of the East Asian newly industrialized countries, have adopted policies to enhance domestic processing of primary commodities as a tool for accelerating employment growth, export revenues, and development. Sri Lanka has traditionally exported tea in the form of bulk (commodity) teas, but “value‐added” teas such as packaged teas, tea bags, etc., have expanded in recent years. This article examines factors affecting the processing of value‐added tea products in Sri Lanka by modeling export supply behavior. Estimates of the long‐run relationship and short‐run dynamics of export supply are presented and discussed. The price of value‐added tea relative to bulk tea, and industry capacity, are identified as the main determinants of export supply, while exchange rate changes have no discernible effect. The policy implications of the analysis for enhancing further expansion of such value‐added teas are presented. These are of interest for both policy makers and development analysts. In particular, the reasons that undermine the effectiveness of exchange rate policy as an instrument to stimulate value addition of primary products have much relevance for similar developing countries.     

Trade and agricultural development in the 1980s and the challenges for the 1990s: Asia

Asian developing countries have had varying experiences in trade and agricultural development in the 1980s, attributable in part to their differing stages of economic development and structural characteristics. Other important influences relate to the external economic environment and the policy choices made by their governments not only during the period but also in the preceding decade. The achievements of Asian developing countries under the adverse external conditions of the 1980s are discussed in terms of their macrocconomic and agricultural growth, the commodity structure of agricultural growth, their food production and trade, the expansion and diversification of their agricultural exports, and the policy and nonpolicy factors affecting them. Special attention is given to the role of policy reforms implemented in China and the South Asian countries, following similar policy developments in Northeast and Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, toward greater openness in their trade regime and increased private-sector participation in the economy. These reforms have contributed to the observed acceleration in gup , agricultural, and export growth in the 1980s. However, macroeconomic imbalances have emerged that threaten the sustainability of economic liberalization in those countries. The major challenges for the 1990s also differ among the Asian developing countries. In the industrially advanced Northeast economies of Taiwan and South Korea, the primary need is to ease the transition of the remaining rural population as farm incomes continue to fall and workers move to industrial and service activities. This challenge has to be addressed in the context of growing external pressure to further open their domestic market for agricultural imports. Among the Southeast and South Asian countries, there is a need to reduce the existing policy biases against agriculture, particularly against export crop production. Moreover, China and the South Asian countries face the additional challenges of continuing to deregulate their trade regime and internal markets, and of promoting macroeconomic stability. Despite the external trend recently toward regionalism, Asian developing countries generally seem committed to an open trading system, on which in fact their past impressive economic performance has been predicated. An important challenge for them in the 1990s is to play an active role in arresting and reversing any protectionist tendencies arising from the formation of regional trading blocs and to support multilateral initiatives such as the Uruguay Round that promote global trade liberalization.     

Global Standards and the Dynamics of Environmental Compliance in India's Leather Industry

Abstract

The comments by Tsai illustrate some important points in the industrial policy debate, though they also reflect a misconception of the purposes of my paper. My rejoinder describes briefly the ‘revisionist’ case, noting that it provides grounds for careful government policies to overcome market failures and not for wholesale, inefficient intervention. It discusses why Tsai's critique of my interpretation of the Asian Tigers is misplaced, and goes on to argue that the ‘revisionist’ case does not underestimate the costs of government failure. It does, however, hold that selective interventions are feasible in certain circumstances, and that other developing country governments can leant from the East Asian experience.     

St Adam and the Dragons: Neo‐classical economics and the East Asian miracle

Abstract

This paper addresses recent explanations for the East Asian miracle. The argument that growth is entirely due to the accumulation of inputs is assessed and found wanting. There is still a place for the view that attributes success to activist policy. This is especially so, since the other explanations of East Asian success are rarely wholly convincing. The paper demonstrates that popular cross‐country models of growth usually fail to explain the East Asian experience, but presents evidence supporting emphasis on favourable initial conditions, including early specialization in manufacturing.     

An Empirical Investigation of Short- and Long-run Agricultural Wage Formation in Ghana

Abstract

It is difficult for both analytical and empirical reasons to identify the precise contours of the Post‐Mao Chinese model of development and there is much that remains unclear or contested. However, the general contours suggest a pattern of development increasingly close to the familiar East Asian model of developmental dictatorship, though with distinctive characteristics deriving from China's size and complexity and its state‐socialist heritage. Although evaluations of Chinese developmental performance have tended to be generally positive, there has been a recent escalation of serious problems which threaten to undermine previous achievements, pose questions about the prospects for sustainability and make the task of evaluation more complex and contestable than before. In consequence, conventional arguments about the superiority of the “Asian” approach to economic reform and the trade‐off between economic growth and political liberalization are losing force.     

From Village Artisans to Industrial Clusters: Agendas and Policy Gaps in Indian Rural Industrialization

This paper offers a broad strategic assessment of the experience of rural industrialization in India. It does so from a policy perspective with the aim eventually of highlighting speci?c outstanding policy issues. Rural and small‐scale industrialization (RSSI) has held a special place in Indian development thinking and policy formulation from the outset. This privileged position, however, does not derive from a universal consensus with regard to the rationale and policy framework applicable to this sub‐sector.However, such has been the symbolic power and populist appeal of RSSI that it has retained its special status within diverse strategic and ideological frameworks. But how has the sub‐sector performed? Is the infant industry still in need of paternalistic protection at the age of ?fty? Are there any credible indications of a strategic break with longstanding policy frameworks inherited from the past? Can any crucial policy gaps be identi ?ed? How well does rural small‐scale industry satisfy the extensive developmental claims made by its proponents? These are the general questions addressed.     

江苏近代以来沿海开发的成效与启示

2009年6月,国务院通过了《江苏沿海地区发展规划》,标志着江苏沿海开发上升到国家战略层面。阐述江苏近代以来沿海开发中的开发思路、重点开发项目、开发政策及成效,总结沿海开发中要有一个较好的开发规划,依靠科技进步促进生产力的发展,资源开发与保护必须并重,科学拟定围堤线等经验教训。提出当前沿海开发要因地制宜发展生产,加强基础设施建设,实施科技兴海战略,进行科学的投资决策。     

加快推进农业现代化 努力实现“三化”同步发展

加快推进农业现代化是实现工业化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展的重大任务。总结国际上一些国家的经验和教训得到的启示是,在现代化进程中必须坚持工业化、城镇化与农业现代化同步发展,必须加强对农业的支持和保护,必须正确发挥政府职能和市场作用。十二五时期加快推进农业现代化、促进三化同步发展要突出重点,抓住关键环节,调整国民收入分配结构、加大对农业和农村的支持力度,提高农业科技创新水平、加快转变农业发展方式,创新农业经营体制机制、加强农产品市场体系建设,加强农业农村基础设施建设,发挥工业化、城镇化的支持带动作用,提升农业现代化发展水平。     

The wealth of nature: economics as if survival mattered

Livestock play a key role in the lives of poor, rural people in developing countries, providing a major proportion of their cash income, capital assets, draught power, fuel and fertilizer. Rapid growth in demand for meat and dairy products in Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for livestock development and poverty alleviation. This paper explores the potential of livestock intensification to benefit the livelihoods of upland households and meet market demand in the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a South East Asian country undergoing significant economic change.

A review of the livestock sector in Asia shows increasing demand for live animals and meat in neighbouring Vietnam, Thailand and China. Lao PDR is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Asian livestock sector, however the extent livestock production in Lao PDR can reduce poverty, meet growing domestic meat demand and lift livestock exports is problematic. Findings from research in two upland northern provinces demonstrate how the introduction of forages for livestock has revolutionized the lives of some farmers and villages, but concludes that strategies are still needed to engage poorer households. The impacts of changing domestic and export markets are less certain, and are discussed within the context of environmental and public health, cultural traditions, economic development and sustainable livelihoods.     

现代林业:社会主义新农村建设的有益探索——浙江德清县以工业化模式发展效益林业的调查

总结了浙江省德清县以发展现代林业支撑社会主义新农村建设的成功经验:以工业化模式发展效益林业,农户组织化,商品品牌化,生产园区化,产品标准化,营销专业化;政府引导,政策扶持,促进现代林业发展。得到如下启示:正确处理好兴林与富民、生态建设与产业发展的关系,充分运用市场经济规律,强化政府服务职能,大力发展非公有制林业,推动林业产业化和现代化。     

攀钢发展资源综合利用及相关产业调研报告

攀枝花钢铁(集团)公司资源综合利用工作的主要特点:①做大做强钒钛产业;②始终保持特种钢铁产品国内市场领先地位;③大力推进技术研发;④兼顾资源效益和环境效益。基本经验:①确立正确的产业发展战略;②注重自主创新;③积极开拓市场;④实施资产重组;⑤重视人才培养。存在的问题:①资源综合利用总体水平仍然偏低;②钛、钒产业发展不平衡;③缺乏有效的激励机制。攀钢在“十一五”发展规划中,将钒钛资源开发利用及相关产业作为其未来发展的战略重点,文章对攀钢实施战略转变提出了四点建议。     

体验经济视域下西安浐灞生态区农业旅游产品开发研究

随着旅游业市场需求的不断转变,体验经济理论与旅游业的融合发展已经成为必然的趋势,也越来越受到国内外学者的重视。文章以西安浐灞生态区农业旅游产品为研究对象,从体验经济视角出发,分析了浐灞生态区农业旅游产品发展现状;揭示了其存在的农业产业规模小,农业产业化水平低、农产品总量不足,农业旅游产品吸引力不足、市场开发能力不强,景区基础设施建设简陋、综合服务能力不强,开发缺乏前期规划、没有与体验经济很好地融合等问题;最后,遵循因地制宜、突出特色,市场向导、注重营销,循序渐进、逐步开发,创新技术、注重管理,经济-社会-生态协调可持续发展等原则,探索了浐灞生态区农业旅游产品的开发模式,如重大有益事件带动模式、特定功能带动模式、交通带动模式、产业带动模式、优惠政策带动模式、居住带动模式等。     

建立东北内蒙古国有林区林业产业集群的设想与对策

产业集群是区域经济发展的重要模式。产业集群一方面为走新型工业化道路提供了产业整合的路径，另一方面为科技创新奠定了良好的基础。因此以发展产业集群振兴东北老工业基地是必然的选择。在东北内蒙古国有林区，要提高对发展林业产业集群重要性的认识，加强林业产业集群发展的规划引导，研究制定扶持产业集群发展的政策措施，充分发挥政府的重要作用，要支持配套企业加快新产品开发步伐，逐步提高区域自主创新能力。     

国外水资源一体化管理的最新进展

介绍国外水资源一体化管理基本原则的发展过程、水资源一体化管理的发展动态。根据中亚进行水资源一体化管理试点的经验,指出水资源一体化管理是世界水资源管理的发展趋势。应该借鉴国外水资源一体化管理的成功经验,推广水资源一体化管理的管理模式,促进我国水利事业的发展。     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。