Regional disparity and convergence of electricity consumption in China: A distribution dynamics approach

One critical factor that affects China's achievement of its peak emission by 2030 is total electricity demand. The aim of this study is to examine regional disparity in electricity consumption in China. The analysis is based on a panel database which is compiled at the provincial level. A distributional dynamics approach is then employed to reveal the trend and movement of each province within the distributions in different regional groupings. The mobility probability plot (MPP) is also employed to provide detailed information on the probability of change in electricity consumption. The results demonstrate significant divergence presents across provinces, over time and within different regional groups. The results can pinpoint the transition mechanism within each region so that appropriate energy policy can be formulated to accommodate future demand in electricity for different regions in China. The results suggest that regional specific energy efficiency policy is needed.     

Dynamics of the energy intensity of the Russian economy in 2006–2007 and projections of the energy consumption

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the energy intensity in the sequential chain of hierarchically interconnected levels of the Russian Federation’s economy in 2006–2007, i.e., GDP segments of the economy’s technological processes sectors. In terms of the energy consumption projection, 2006 and 2007 present an extremely interesting example of the changing impulsive character of the growth of the demand for electric energy under intensively growing domestic and foreign demand for products of energy intensive sectors of the Russian Federation. The year of 2006 demonstrated a high growth of the per unit GDP and a very high growth of energy consumption under fast growing internal and external demand for energy intensive products; the year of 2007 showed a still higher growth of the GDP at a sharply curtailed growth of the energy consumption, and the rate of decline of the GDP energy intensity almost doubled. The comparative analysis of 2006 and 2007 can help one to understand what can underlie the changed energy consumption in the country in the period of the world crisis and after its end.     

中国电力能源效率影响因素研究

论文选取我国29个省、市、自治区2000—2009年10年的面板数据,利用面板平滑转换模型深入分析产业结构、能源消费结构、技术进步、对外开放程度及电力价格五大因素对电力能源效率的影响程度及影响机制,结果显示：①第二产业的比重对电力能源效率具有负向影响,但随着产业结构的不断优化升级,电力能源效率反而逐渐提升;②电力消费量占能源消费总量的比重对电力能源效率的提高具有反作用;③技术进步水平、进出口贸易总额占GDP比重均会促进电力能源效率的提高;④电力价格对电力能源效率的影响不明显,若想通过调整电价来大幅提高我国的电力能源效率,效果可能并不显著,但对于寻找替代能源、发展清洁新能源可能会有一定的促进作用。最后,有针对性地为提高我国的电力能源效率提出政策建议。     

Russia and Europe: Energy union or energy conflict?

The possible forms of interaction between Russia and Europe in the field of energy in the near and a more distant future are analyzed. Their relations are examined from the political, legal and, most importantly, economic point of view. The world and European demand for energy resources is evaluated. The most promising hydrocarbon resources are examined, with the projections of energy consumption in Russia made considering the dynamics of the development of Russia’s economy. All these factors determine the forms the interaction between Russia and Europe in the energy field may take, taking into account both Russia’s own energy needs and Europe’s demand for Russian energy resources.     

低碳经济下我国制造业发展现状及对策研究

低碳经济背景下,通过对我国制造业能源消耗和生产效率现状分析,探究我国制造业的发展模式和出路;指出通过转变发展模式、提升管理和技术水平来改变生产效率低下、能耗严重的问题,走一条低消耗、低成本的发展之路。     

Climatic impact on China's residential electricity consumption: Does the income level matter?

It is widely accepted that energy use contributes to climate change. However, climate change can also affect energy demand. There is ample proof in the literature that a feedback phenomenon exists. However, empirical evidence of its mechanism and operation in different contexts is missing. As China is the largest consumer of electricity worldwide, a detailed study of its energy consumption patterns would be insightful. Moreover, how the increasing income of Chinese residents affects the climate sensitivity of electricity demand is particularly relevant. Using data from 278 cities in China over the period 2005 to 2015, this study applies a newly developed technique, partially linear functional-coefficient panel data model, which enables disclosure of the role of income levels. The results indicate that climate change significantly stimulates residential electricity consumption in hot weather rather than in cold weather. Additionally, the level of income affects climate sensitivity. Specifically, an increase in income initially increases the marginal effect of cooling degree days (days on which building cooling is desired) on electricity consumption, but the curve of the marginal increment becomes flat as income growth increases further.     

Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.     

A Dual-Price Demand Theory for Economies under Transition

China adopted a dual-price system shortly after the economic reform started in 1978 to liberalise its price control. This led to the coexistence of both plan and market prices for an identical good in the economy. The conventional demand theory developed based on the pure market economies is not useful in explaining consumers' behaviour in the transitional economies such as China in which both plan and market prices are prevalent. This study develops an alternative demand theory for a dual-price (or dual-track) economy and derives the dual-price Slusky equation that identifies a replacement effect of price liberalisation. This demand theory distinguishes itself from the conventional demand theory and explains the ways in which consumers respond to the price liberalisation during the reform period. The new demand theory shows that the gradual approach to reform is superior to the ‘Big Bang’ approach in terms of reducing the ‘corrected inflation’ during the transition period. The new theory also suggests that the price elasticity of demand is higher in the dual-track system than that in a full market economy, implying that the price elasticity diminishes over the process of price liberalisation. This theory is tested using the Chinese aggregate consumption data.     

经济增长对我国能源消费的影响

在中国现阶段,经济增长与能源消费关系呈现双向因果关系:其中从经济增长到能源消费方向的因果关系呈现持续、刚性的特点,因此未来较长时期我国的能源消费从总量上还将维持上涨趋势;而从能源消费到经济增长方向的因果关系则更富弹性,能源消费仅仅是经济增长的原因之一。无论是不可逾越的工业化进程,还是赶超式的经济增长,都决定了在未来一段时间我国经济对能源的依赖程度还会保持高位,经济增长与节能减排这一对矛盾仍然之分突出。     

Does urbanization increase residential energy use? Evidence from the Chinese residential energy consumption survey 2012

China's rapid urbanization and increasing energy use are accompanied by deteriorating environmental quality. Understanding the structure of energy use is necessary to address these environmental effects. We investigate how urbanization affects residential energy use, using data from the Chinese Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2012 (CRECS 2012). By comparing the energy consumption of urban and rural households and identifying the factors influencing the differences, we find that dwelling characteristics (e.g., building infrastructure, residential area), household characteristics (e.g., household size, income), and unobservable factors (e.g., the surrounding environment, living habits) all play roles in shaping residential energy consumption. Urbanization directly decreases energy consumption through differences in the environment outside the household (markets, infrastructure, etc.), while it indirectly increases consumption through the presence of central heating, decreased household size, and increased household income. We find a positive total effect: urbanization increases residential energy consumption in total. We also find that urbanization shifts energy consumption away from coal and toward electricity and gas. In addition, we distinguish between onsite urbanization (formation of towns based on rural markets) and offsite urbanization (movement to large cities). Compared to onsite urbanization, offsite urbanization shifts energy consumption toward electricity and gas by a larger magnitude. Finally, we project residential energy use in 2020.     

经济调节方式与社会主义的经济改革

我国社会主义经济改革的历史已经证明,计划调节依然是社会主义经济基本的和主要的调节方式,这是由社会主义经济制度的特殊性质决定的。在现代市场经济条件下,要正确处理计划调节和市场调节的关系,重新构建社会主义经济的计划机制模式。     

余淼杰:拉动经济 还靠“铁公鸡”

余淼杰认为,根据欧美等国现状,今年中国依然会出现净出口负贡献这一现象,甚至以后将成为常态;而在社会保障不完善的前提下,消费需求也难以快速增长。因此,今年中国的经济增长,还得依靠政府投资。     

The relationship between an electricity supply ceiling and economic growth: An application of disequilibrium modeling to Taiwan

Using a disequilibrium model, we investigate the relationship between the supply constraint of electricity generation capacity and electricity demand in Taiwan. We find that electricity consumption faced supply constraints in Taiwan between 1959 and 1972, but that generation capacity grew rapidly after 1973, such that economic growth came to be the major determinant of electricity consumption. Our experience in fitting this disequilibrium model suggests that simple causality tests are not a proper means to understand the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Our results also suggest, at least for developing countries, that an electricity supply constraint sometimes plays an important role when investigating the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.     

The impacts of market power on power grid efficiency: Evidence from China

Since 1980s, China has experienced a series of reforms to support the development of electricity industry, and the latest one is in 2015. The essence of this new reform is to improve efficiency and lower energy cost. However, China's electricity market has its particularity. The “provinces as entities” is the main regulation frame in China's electricity sector. The operation of the electricity industry can be seen as a game result and interest compromise between the local government and grid companies, and this “win-win exchange” regulation failure leads to grid market power. The profit mode of the grid enterprises will be gradually changed with the deepening of new electricity reform. How to regulate electricity transmission and distribution sector and improve grid efficiency becomes a crucial problem to address. This paper aims to examine the relationship between market power and power grid efficiency. We calculate the unconditional and conditional efficiency of grid companies by applying a conditional slack-based measure (SBM) model. The empirical results show that grid efficiency is at a low level and the indicators differ among provinces and regions. Moreover, market power indeed has significant negative effects on power grid efficiency. These findings provide some insightful references for the future development of China's power industry and electricity reform.     

我国传统制造业低碳化驱动因素研究

随着低碳经济的提出,人们越来越关注碳排放对全球变暖的影响.我国传统制造业作为国家经济的支柱产业,其二氧化碳的排放量占全国碳排放量的多数比例.文章通过发达国家与中国在能源消费量,能源消费结构,国内生产总值能耗,二氧化碳气体排放量占世界比重等方面的对比分析,研究了我国传统制造业低碳化的驱动因素进而提出相应的对策建议.     

居民用电对城市节能目标的影响及对策——以上海市为例

居民电能消费量,是城市生活质量的重要标志,随着经济发展和收入增长,城市居民的电能消费呈大幅度增长的势态,占城市能源消耗总量的比率不断提升。然而这种增长趋势却大大抵消了为节能降耗所采取各种措施的效果,不利于城市节能降耗目标的实现。本文定量分析居民用电对城市节能目标的影响程度,并提出减弱和消除其不利影响的可行措施。     

全面理解和不断深化认识市场经济

新中国70年、特别是改革开放40年来,中国经济持续高速增长,创造了举世瞩目的发展奇迹。现在来看,中国经济之所以实现跨越式发展,是与党领导下市场经济体制的逐步建立和对市场经济的认识深化密不可分。但是,一直以来我国对市场经济的认识深受西方经济理论和话语逻辑的影响,主要从资源配置角度论证市场经济的合理性及政府与市场的合理行为边界。由此造成西方对我国市场经济的指责,认为中国的市场经济不是真正市场经济,以及给我国市场经济贴上"国家资本主义标签"的种种"污名化"说辞。对此,为避免陷入西方话语陷阱,我国学术界应该结合新中国70年和改革开放40年伟大成功实践,不断深化对市场经济的认识。     

论中国石化产品市场分析方法

文章论述了中国石化产品市场分析方法和市场的中国特色。分析方法分三个层面：供需分析、市场分析和竞争力分析。供需分析主要论述了供应和需求两个方面如何分析,重点讨论了需求的结构分析和供需分析的核心工具一供需平衡表的应用。市场分析分为宏观层面和微观层面。宏观层面论述了宏观经济、政府政策和行业趋势三个因素;微观层面讨论了新增产能、价格变化、替代品、营销模式和突发事件五个因素。竞争力分析从企业战略层面分析产品的竞争力,讨论了成本和技．术两个因素。最后探讨了中国石化产品市场有中国特色的三个特点：现货市场、国营特色和进口产品的两面性。     

我国能源利用现状对发展低碳经济的制约与对策

发展低碳经济已经成为我国的既定目标。但是,我国能源消费总量增长迅速,导致CO2排放总量同步增加;以煤为主的能源生产和消费结构,增加了节能减排的难度;油气资源自给度低,能源消费结构调整困难;可再生能源利用有局限,只能作为化石能源有限的补充,这种能源利用现状制约着低碳经济目标的实现。为此,我国必须制定科学合理的能源战略和政策。     

从当代中国的消费特征看服装品牌的发展走势

中国现阶段正处于大历史背景下的社会转型期,此时的中国消费市场出现了一些显著的特征：炫耀性消费,盲目追随性消费和冲动性消费,并且这些消费特征有明显上升的趋势。面对这一现象,服装企业该如何在危机中寻找机遇？如何调整市场战略以适应眼下消费者的需求？本文认为：增强品牌意识,改变经营思路,拓宽营销渠道是转机的基础。我们说有＂危＂才有＂机＂,中国的服装产业应在消费市场变化的当下找出自己的发展道路。