华北地区农户对粮食政策的评价及生产粮食意愿分析

该文在问卷调查的基础上,分析了我国华北地区粮食主产区农户对国家粮食政策的评价和生产粮食的意愿及原因等问题。结果表明,农户对国家"两减免,三补贴"政策的落实情况比较满意,从事粮食生产的农户获得国家粮食政策优惠最多的是"直接补贴";农户对国家粮食政策期望按照重要性排序是:"提高最低收购价">"加大粮食直补">"加大农田基础设施建设">"加大科技投入与推广"。农户种植粮食作物的主要原因是"保证口粮、有粮吃";愿意多种粮食的农户占56.5%,还有32.2%的农户不愿意多种粮食。农户愿意多种粮食的原因主要是当前的粮食及农业政策不错,其次是多种粮食能够增加农户经济收入;农户不愿意多种粮食主要是缘于成本效益较低、增产幅度小以及农户基本口粮足够。     

Farmers’ Income and Production Responses to Rural Taxation Reform in Three Regions in China

The relationship between agricultural taxation and production efficiency has been thoroughly explored for many countries. Recently, China has taken various measures including the rural taxation reform (RTR) to promote grain production and to increase farmer incomes. In this study, we investigate whether the Chinese policy of abolishing rural taxation has improved farm households’ incomes and affected their production decisions. Using household survey data obtained from three regions in China, we estimate the effect of the RTR on farmers’ income. Results show that the RTR has significantly improved farmers’ post‐tax net income by 9.2% in Shandong, 16.9% in Shanxi and 16.8% in Zhejiang. These increments, mostly from farm income rather than from off‐farm income, are much higher than the direct income increase from the tax savings. In addition, we examine the dynamic impact of farmers’ net income, and find that the RTR has a sustained positive income effect in Shandong and Shanxi, whereas its positive effect in Zhejiang appears temporary. We also examine farmers’ production responses to the RTR. Results show that farmers in the three regions respond in different ways: farmers in Shandong significantly increase their labour input, farmers in Zhejiang increase intermediate inputs, whereas Shanxi farmers augment their intermediate inputs and enlarge their crop acreage. It appears that the farmers’ responses to the taxation reform vary due to the agronomic and economic factors in these three regions, suggesting that diverse post‐RTR supplemental policies should be implemented in different regions.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

新时期中国粮食补贴政策的战略协同与差异设计

本研究在梳理新时期中国粮食补贴政策体系的基础上,分析政策体系存在的政策主体多元且程序繁琐、补贴标准偏低且范围偏窄以及补贴依据不合理且对象错位等问题。针对新形势,本文提出了粮食补贴政策与乡村振兴、粮食安全、农业市场化、农业规模化、农业现代化、农业信息化、开放型农业等战略的协同布局;并且,本文提出了新时期粮食补贴政策的差异设计方案,包括试行粮食金融化分层补贴、构建粮食加工分类补贴、推行粮食主产区和主销区补贴政策的差异设计。     

Assessing the Impact of the ‘Decoupling’ Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Irish Farmers’ Off‐farm Labour Market Participation Decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the ‘decoupling’ reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision‐making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers’ time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that ‘decoupling’ of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off‐farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off‐farm work will increase.     

Off‐Farm Work,Intensity of Government Payments,and Farm Exits: Evidence from a National Survey in the United States

The last three decades have witnessed the continued exit of households from primary agriculture in the United States, where the average annual gross exit rate has averaged 10% per year. Understanding exit behavior is one key to future farm structure, management of abandoned land, depopulation of rural areas, and agricultural policy, including government program payments. This study empirically estimates the determinants of exit decisions of farm households. Particular attention is given to the roles of intensity of government payments and off‐farm work decisions of farm couples in the exit decision. Using a large farm‐level survey and controlling for endogeneity, results indicate that farm households with reduced intensity of government payments are more likely to exit farming. Households where the operator spouse works off the farm are more likely to exit farming. Additionally, households with older farmers, with the farm operator and spouse raised on a farm, and households operating farms located in Northern Great Plains are more likely to exit farming.     

我国谷子种植户持续种植意愿的影响因素研究

文章通过对3个省(自治区)、5个市,268户谷子种植户的问卷调查,采用logit模型,使用逐步回归分析的方法,对影响谷子种植户持续种植谷子意愿的因素进行了分析。从户主个人基本情况、农户家庭情况、农户农业生产情况、谷子生产情况等4个方面共选择13项调查内容作为解释变量,以第2年是否持续种植谷子作为被解释变量,逐步回归分析结果表明:种植户种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重、种植户家庭耕地面积、谷子种植补贴通过了显著性检验。种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重与谷子持续种植呈显著负相关,比重越高持续种植意愿越低。谷子产量受自然因素影响大,农户从减小风险的角度出发,收入对种植业越依赖谷子的种植意愿越弱。家庭耕地面积与谷子持续种植呈显著正相关,家庭耕地面积越大,谷子被选择种植的机会也就越大,规模效应越明显,持续种植意愿越强。补贴对持续种植意愿呈显著正相关关系,种植补贴意味着更多的收益,积极性就越高。依据分析结果提出了要进一步提升对种植谷子的重视,加大科研投入力度,做好科技成果的转化与推广工作;要加大谷子种植补贴的力度、范围及内容,在良种、农膜、资金等方面对种植户给予支持与补贴,调动农户谷子种植的积极性;推进土地流转,在农户种植规模扩大过程中提高土地规模效益的政策建议。     

Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability,and how effective are policy interventions? Agent‐based simulation results for Ethiopia

Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub‐Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent‐based simulation package Mathematical Programming‐based Multi‐Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers.     

Policy reform and farmers' wheat allocation in rural China: a case study*

Market‐oriented policy reforms often have important effects on farm‐level grain production and utilisation decisions in developing countries. China's grain farmers are of particular interest because of China's importance in world grain markets and because of China's recent major agricultural policy advances and retrenchments. An empirical evaluation of market liberalisation among farmers located in two provinces in China on farm‐level wheat consumption, market sales and on‐farm storage during 1994 is presented. The results indicate that policymakers should account for such changes in farm household behaviour in designing and assessing the consequence of market liberalisation programs for agricultural sectors in developing countries.     

Internet Access and Farm Household Income – Empirical Evidence using a Semi‐parametric Assessment in Taiwan

There is considerable literature examining individuals’ behaviour with respect to Internet use, but less attention is paid to farm household use of the Internet. Among the few studies on farm households, the emphasis is on the correlation between socioeconomic factors and the adoption of the Internet. Thus, relatively little is known about the association between Internet use and farm household well‐being. In an effort to fill this void, this paper investigates Internet access among farm households and examines the effects of Internet access on farm household income. Given the observed income gap between Internet users and non‐users, we then investigate the extent to which socioeconomic factors may be associated with this income gap. Using a nationwide survey of farm households in Taiwan, a novel econometric model is proposed and estimated employing a semi‐parametric technique. Our results support the conclusion that Internet use improves farm household income. Most of the income gap between adopters and non‐adopters can be explained by the differences in the return of the socioeconomic factors.     

林业补贴政策对浙江林农营林投入和收入影响分析

基于浙江省3县368户农户的调查数据,采用双重差分模型(DID)研究实施中央财政林业补贴政策对林农营林投入和收入的影响。结果表明:实施林业补贴政策可以显著增加农户的营林投入,但对农户的营林增收没有显著带动作用,这证明林业补贴能够有效刺激林农的营林积极性,但增收效果仍有待观察。因此,选取林业补贴对象应注重"普惠+特惠"制、林业补贴政策需长期稳定执行、政府部门应加强林业补贴政策的宣传力度。     

茂名市农业补贴绩效分析

本文从茂名市的农业概况、农业补贴的基本情况、农业补贴政策存在的问题以及政策建议等几个方面来分析该市农业补贴绩效。目前农业补贴政策存在的问题集中在补贴方式不完善,粮食增产增收政策目标有待加强;种粮补贴标准偏低,弱化政策效果;工作量大,缺乏工作经费;衣机购置补贴方案下达太迟,机具核实成本高。对此,我们建议：对种粮直补政策做适当的调整,促进农业结构的调整;提高补贴标准,增加工作经费;尽早下达农机购置补贴的实施方案,改革机具核实方法。     

Market imperfections,liquidity, and farm household labor allocation: the case of rural South Africa

Asset endowments and market imperfections shape households’ labor allocation decisions and lead to different production regimes within rural farm households in South Africa. This article uses a farm household model to explain the presence of three main household groups determined on the basis of the labor regime adopted: small peasants (working both on and off farm), self‐cultivators (autarkic in labor) and hiring‐in households. A partial generalized ordered logit is used to test the main predictions of the model and a Brant test on threshold constancy is performed to identify the household‐specific factors affecting labor market participation. The results show that liquidity constraints and market imperfections matter in the choice of the labor strategy adopted. Liquidity‐constrained households are more likely to sell labor off farm while access to information facilitates the hiring in of workers.     

Agricultural Policy Reform and Off‐farm Labour Decisions

Off‐farm labour decisions of a sample of Kansas farmers are evaluated. The central question of our analysis pertains to whether 1996 US farm policy reforms may have altered the decisions to work off the farm. The effects of policy decoupling on off‐farm labour are complex: different aspects of policy changes can have opposing effects on off‐farm work decisions. Essentially, this makes this issue an empirical question. Results show that the introduction of fixed, decoupled payments in 1996 might have reduced the likelihood of off‐farm labour participation. However, the new policy environment may have increased farm households’ revealed aversion to risk, motivating a higher participation in non‐farm labour markets. The effects of 1996 policy reforms on farm income variability could have been attenuated by changes in US crop insurance programmes and by an increase in emergency assistance payments towards the end of the 1990s. The reduction in price supports may have increased the motivation for working off the farm. The net effect of the overall reforms on off‐farm work participation is not likely to have been large.     

河北省玉米供给反应研究——基于2003～2010年农户层面的动态面板分析

玉米已成为我国播种面积最大的粮食作物，同时玉米在主要粮食作物中比例也不断攀升。文章利用2003～2010年河北省农户玉米种植的动态面板数据，建立了农业供给反应（适应性预期）模型，采用广义矩阵估计方法（GMM），对影响河北省9个县534户农民的玉米供给和调整的价格、政策以及气候等因素进行了动态面板实证分析和相关探讨。基于农户玉米生产供给反应模型的理论框架，推导出研究所采用的动态面板适应性预期模型。结果表明，首先，河北省农户的玉米种植面积对于价格变化很敏感，玉米种植面积的长期价格弹性较大。其次，补贴政策对于农户种植玉米有一定的积极促进作用，但是农户对于补贴额的反应程度很小。再次，生产成本投入增加会制约河北省农户玉米种植。最后，降水对于保证玉米生产具有重要作用。因此，稳定玉米价格、继续加大政策支持力度、完善水利基础设施补贴力度对于保证河北省玉米生产和供给会产生积极促进作用。     

Farm machinery use,off‐farm employment and farm performance in China

We analyse the joint impacts of farm machinery use and off‐farm employment on maize yields and agrochemical expenses from a household survey of 493 farmers in China. Our findings are obtained from an innovative two‐stage econometric procedure that combines a bivariate ordered probit model with an endogeneity‐corrected ordinary least square regression model. The results show that farmers are jointly making decisions to use farm machines and to work off the farm and that these two household activities affect maize yields and agrochemical expenses in different ways. We show that farm machinery use significantly increases both maize yields and agrochemical expenses, while off‐farm employment significantly decreases agrochemical expenses. Our findings highlight the importance of additional machinery use in increasing farm production; the need to account for possible endogeneity in estimation; and the statistical significance of key household characteristics (gender, education, and household size) on overall farm production.     

A supply‐side analysis of agritourism: Evidence from farm‐level agriculture census data in Taiwan

Due to consumers’ increased demand for leisure and farmers’ need for income diversification, researchers and policymakers have significant interest in topics related to agritourism. This study provides a supply‐side analysis on agritourism using Taiwan as a case study. Utilising a sample of 720,148 family farms from the 2010 agriculture census survey in Taiwan, we quantify the effects of engaging in the agritourism business on farm income, on farm succession, and on family members’ labour supply decisions between on‐farm and off‐farm work. An analytical framework that combines the doubly robustness regression model and semiparametric estimation is proposed to address the endogeneity bias. Results indicate that participation in agritourism increases farm income and family farm succession. Farms engaging in agritourism also have more family members working on the farm, and fewer family members working off‐farm, compared to farms not engaging in agritourism. Although agritourism enterprises are developed to meet consumers’ demand for leisure, our results show that they also improve the economic welfare of farm households.     

Consumption inequality between farm and nonfarm households in Taiwan: a decomposition analysis of differences in distribution

Consumption has been recognized as a more reliable indicator of household well‐being than income. Although a considerable body of literature has examined income inequality between farm and nonfarm households, little is known about inequality in consumption. This research aims to fill this knowledge gap by investigating consumption disparity between farm and nonfarm households. Using a nationally representative household survey from Taiwan, we apply an unconditional quantile regression‐based decomposition method to decompose the differences in the distribution of household expenditure between these farm and nonfarm households. The results indicate that differences in the observed characteristics between these two types of households explain most of the consumption inequality. Moreover, the difference in the education level of the farm operator, household income, and the degree of urbanization are particularly important.     

退耕补贴到期对贫困地区农户消费的影响研究

目的 退耕补贴是维持贫困地区农户消费水平和维持生活消费的重要收入来源,首轮退耕还林补贴到期是否影响了退耕农户的消费是亟待探究的关键性问题,但鲜有研究对此进行探讨。方法 文章基于河北与四川8个贫困县831份农户实地调查数据,利用PSM-DID模型估计退耕补贴到期对农户消费水平和结构产生的影响,并利用组间差异分析和分位数回归来探究退耕补贴到期对异质性农户消费行为的影响。结果 退耕补贴到期对农户总消费、生存性消费、发展性消费和享受性消费影响系数分别为-0.091%、-0.087%、-0.097%和0.030%,贫困农户和低、中消费水平农户受到退耕补贴到期的较大影响。结论 退耕补贴到期对样本农户消费水平产生明显负向影响,同时一定程度上不利于农户消费结构改善。贫困农户相较于非贫困农户、低中消费水平农户相较于高消费水平农户更易受到退耕补贴到期的负向影响,为帮助提高贫困地区农户消费水平,维护脱贫攻坚成果,该研究依据实证结果提出政策建议。     

Off‐farm work and technical efficiency on U.S. dairies

In this study, we investigate the impact of an increase in farm households’ off‐farm work on technical efficiency (TE) of U.S. dairies. We present a theoretical framework that implies that an increase in farm household off‐farm work decreases TE. We use two nationally‐representative samples of U.S. dairies (2010 and 2005 Agricultural Resource Management Surveys) and a parametric approach (stochastic frontier analysis) to empirically test the hypothesis. Results are generally consistent with the hypothesis and show that an increase in off‐farm work by the farm household is associated with a significant decrease in TE. In addition, results show that there is a statistically significant difference in TE between small, medium, and large farms. Small farms are associated with significantly higher off‐farm work and have lower TE than large farms, which implies that less off‐farm work by households with larger farms is at least partially responsible for the evidence of economies of scale in the U.S. dairy industry.