Time- or state-dependent price setting rules? Evidence from micro data

We use two rich micro-datasets on Portuguese firms to analyse the ability of time- and state-dependent price setting rules to explain durations of price spells, or the probability of price changes. Using a duration model with time-varying regressors, we find some evidence of state-dependent price setting behaviour, which suggests that time-dependent models are unable to fully describe the features of the data. Specifically, we find statistically significant impacts on the probability of a price change of inflation, the level of economic activity and the magnitude of the last price change. Besides being statistically significant, in some cases these effects are also economically important. Finally, it is found that negative and positive values of the covariates have different impacts on the expected duration of prices.     

LOCAL VERSUS PRODUCER CURRENCY PRICING: EVIDENCE FROM DISAGGREGATED DATA*

The pricing behavior of firms is a central issue in international macroeconomics. Using the introduction of the euro as a natural experiment I find that year‐to‐year volatility in import prices among Eurozone members diminished by 4% on average after the introduction of the euro. Additionally, I show that the magnitude of the drop was commensurate with the drop in exchange rate volatility. On the other hand, when looking at exports, I find that the introduction of the euro had no impact on export price volatility. The results support the hypothesis of producer currency pricing.     

Did the euro give us a break in inflation?

The introduction of the euro was accompanied by promises of lower inflation rates; however, the public feels that inflation increased when the euro was introduced. Officials admit that certain sectors experienced substantial price increases, but they claim that the overall inflation rate did not increase. This paper investigates whether inflation in 15 European countries experienced a structural break after the euro was introduced using new powerful and serial correlation robust test statistics. We find evidence that the European Monetary Union (EMU) countries experienced a positive break in inflation after 1999. Our results demonstrate that inflation just after the introduction of the euro was higher relative to the inflation just prior to the introduction of the euro. Additionally, we find no evidence of positive breaks for the non-EMU countries when the euro was introduced.     

Intraday stock prices, volume, and duration: a nonparametric conditional density analysis

We investigate the distribution of high-frequency price changes, conditional on trading volume and duration between trades, on four stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The conditional probabilities are estimated nonparametrically using local polynomial regression methods. We find substantial skewness in the distribution of price changes, with the direction of skewness dependent on the sign of trade. We also find that the probability of larger price changes increases with volume, but only for trades that occur with longer durations. The distribution of price changes vary with duration primarily when volume is high.     

Exchange Rate Pass‐Through And The Welfare Effects Of The Euro*

This article explores the implications of the European single currency within a simple sticky price intertemporal model. We focus on the question of how the euro may change the sensitivity of consumer prices in Europe to exchange‐rate changes. Our central conjecture is that the acceptance of the euro will lead European prices to become more insulated from exchange‐rate volatility. We find that this affects both the volatility and levels of macroeconomic aggregates in both the U.S. and Europe. We find that European welfare is enhanced, and the U.S. shares in Europe's good fortune.     

Financial incentives in the Austrian PAYG-pension system: micro-estimation

The scope of this paper is to investigate the impact of financial incentives on the retirement decision of private sector workers in Austria. How do financial incentives embedded in the Austrian pension system impact individual retirement behavior? We are using a unique dataset of individual social insurance spells. Micro-estimating the impact of financial incentives on the probability of retirement shows that the behavioral response to financial incentives in Austria is relatively large in international comparison. Also, there are striking behavioral differences between men and women. Using the estimates to simulate reform scenarios shows huge behavioral changes as incentives alter.     

A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency

We use ultra high frequency (trade by trade) data to demonstrate that equity price clustering and pricing predictability around psychologically important prices in Greece switches away from drachma-focused with the introduction of the euro, but does not immediately switch to euro-clustering. The change in trader price focus around the euro introduction addresses an open debate in the clustering literature on whether the presence of clustering is a bias related to the current prices or anchoring to past prices. Our findings of a decline in drachma clustering, but lack of switch to euro effects supports the case for clustering being a trading feature that is slow to transfer to new pricing regimes. A key advantage of the ultra high frequency dataset is we are also able to demonstrate the presence of psychological pricing barriers related to each currency that are not detectable in daily data.     

Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence

This paper presents a time‐series regression analysis of price inflation at the time of the euro currency changeover in January 2002. Cross‐equation tests on 12 euro countries and three non‐euro EU countries are used to identify significant price changes around that time. For a small number of product and service categories, positive price changes immediately after the euro changeover suggest the possible existence of menu costs, sellers' rounding up of prices or buyers' temporary rational inattention. However, the lack of evidence for reduced inflation immediately prior to the euro changeover suggests menu costs are not important.     

Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?

This study examines the marginal effects of traditional determinants of exports and imports with a focus on the role of price competitiveness in restoring external balances in the euro area. It is a first attempt to compare marginal effects of various harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) on both exports and imports of both goods and services across individual euro area countries. We find evidence that HCIs based on broader cost and price measures have a larger marginal effect (with some exceptions) on exports of goods. Exports of services are sensitive to HCIs in big euro area countries and Slovakia, where exports of services are also found more sensitive to competitiveness indicators based on broader price measures. Imports of goods and imports of services are quite insensitive to changes in relative prices. Finally, in some cases measures of fit indicate that a large unexplained residual part is present, implying that other non-price related factors might play an important role in driving foreign trade and policies aimed at enhancing the quality of goods traded are warranted.     

A core–periphery framework in stock markets of the euro zone

The introduction of the euro was expected to have an effect not only on real convergence of economies but also on stock markets. This research compares the dynamics and synchronization of stock market regimes in European markets before and after the euro launch. Countries of the euro zone are found to have different dynamics with regard to switching between bull and bear markets, but the differences become less pronounced after the introduction of the single currency, increasing the overall level of stock market synchronization. Nevertheless, Austria and Portugal reduced the level of regime synchronization with other stock markets. The results delineate a framework of core–periphery stock markets, i.e., a large group of stock markets that share the same market regime, with some others on the periphery characterized by distinctive behavior.     

The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation

This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find that the inflationary effect of oil price changes in both economies is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation variability. The impact on Spanish inflation is found to be somewhat higher than in the euro area. In both economies, direct effects have increased in the last decade, reflecting the higher expenditure share of households on refined oil products, whereas indirect and second-round effects seem to be losing importance.     

Intranational Price Convergence and Price Stickiness: Evidence from Denmark

We show that estimates of the half‐life of deviations from the law of one price are biased when their precision is not taken into account when aggregating data for different types of goods. Using a comprehensive dataset with monthly price data for 124 homogeneous products across regions in Denmark over the period 1997–2010, we find a large positive aggregation bias. On average, we find that the half‐life is 8.4 months when taking the bias into account, compared with 28.7 months when applying the standard method. The heterogeneity in the estimated half‐life can be explained by price stickiness, distance between regions, and whether the good is traded or non‐traded.     

Momentum or market? Determinants of large stock price changes in an emerging market

The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of large price changes in Turkey. We also provide additional evidence on determinants of large price changes in different macroeconomic environments, specifically on the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Using recurrent event analysis with stratified observations and frailty effects, our findings suggest that momentum has a significant impact on large price changes during both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. However, the impact of market is more significant on the estimation of large price declines in the pre-crisis period and of large price increases in the post-crisis period. Additional findings suggest that liquidity and market-to-book ratio have positive, firm size has a negative impact on likelihood of large price changes regardless of the direction of the stock price change and macroeconomic environment. Findings of this study provide new insights into the understanding of large price changes in an emerging market.     

How do firms adjust their prices in Turkey? Micro-level evidence

This article investigates the pricing behaviour of Turkish firms over the period 1988–2006 on the basis of firm-level micro data. The duration of prices is found to be 3.9 months on average. There is no clear heterogeneity across main groupings in the frequency of price changes, but more dependence on imported goods reduces price stickiness. Price decreases are less frequent than price increases, indicating downward rigidity in prices. There is evidence in favour of both time and state-dependent price setting behaviours. Further, there is a low degree of synchronization of price changes across firms, whereas price increases tend to be more synchronized than price decreases. Ordered probit models show that price adjustments depend on the type of the shock: the pass-through of a change in the cost is faster than changing demand. Besides, estimated probabilities of price adjustments with 5-years rolling windows reveal that inflation targeting has succeeded in bringing down the probability of price increases, whereas downward price rigidity has not weakened yet.     

Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs

We regress long-term private-sector borrowing rates on a money market rate, a term premium and credit risk. As a contribution to the current debate about European safe assets, our interest is in quantifying the impact of euro area sovereign bond spreads on private-sector lending by employing it as a proxy for private-sector credit risk. Panel estimates show significant, albeit rather small long-run effects. Another finding is large cross-country heterogeneity. Using linear country-specific estimates, we find the effect to be significant in only some countries, but the size of the maximum effect in these countries exceeds the average one more than three-fold. Furthermore, for one country, we find an asymmetrical effect with positive spread changes having greater impact on private-sector borrowing costs than negative ones. Substantial heterogeneity of the spillover effect between euro area countries indicates the presence of financial valuation effects based not only on economic fundamentals. This, in turn, implies that spillovers may entail contagion costs. Overall, our results suggest that these costs are considerable in the euro area and will remain so until an effective form of European safe assets is created.     

THE MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION FOR THE EURO AREA: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper sets out to re‐examine the money demand function for the euro area. Traditional specifications often yield unsatisfactory results: instability of short and long‐term coefficients; relatively large differences between estimated and actual value of variables; and significant changes in the number of long‐term relationships, etc. Using a standard Vector Error Correction Model, we find that the usual specification is indeed unstable. However, introducing a European equity price gives rise to a more stable system. Furthermore, recursive estimates confirm the relative stability of long‐term coefficients. Estimates of the real money gap, based on the money demand equation including equity prices, point to moderate, albeit persistent, excess liquidity in the euro area in recent years. The real money gap contains information about future inflation but this content may have diminished since 2001.     

Perceived inflation and the euro: Evidence from an Austrian survey

This paper employs an Austrian micro-dataset to analyze why inflation perceptions became disconnected from official inflation measures in the course of the euro cash changeover. We find evidence that persons who are more often confronted with prices, who expected price increases and who mentally convert euro prices into old currency prices when making price comparisons have a significantly higher perception of inflation. Furthermore, our results indicate that the latter two factors have a persistent impact. This contributes in explaining why price perceptions have not normalized for several years in some countries. The results suggest that policy measures in countries which are going to introduce the euro should address these issues in order to prevent a similar development as experienced in many euro area countries.     

Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area

A calibrated New Keynesian model of the euro area is used to evaluate the stabilization properties of alternative monetary policy strategies when the natural rate of interest is low (“new normal”) and the probability of reaching the effective lower bound (ELB) is non-negligible. Price level targeting is the most effective strategy in terms of stabilizing inflation and output and reducing the duration and frequency of ELB episodes. Temporary price level targeting is also effective in mitigating the ELB constraint, although its stabilization properties are inferior to those of price level targeting. Backward-looking average inflation targeting performs well and is preferable to inflation targeting. The effectiveness of these alternative strategies hinges upon the commitment of a central bank to keeping the policy rate “lower for longer” and is influenced by agents’ expectation formation mechanism.     

Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area

The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks for the euro area, with a special focus on post-2009 oil price dynamics and the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, by means of a large-scale time-varying parameter model. We find that recessionary effects are triggered by oil price hikes and, in some cases, also by oil price slumps. In this respect, the post-2009 run-up likely contributed to sluggish growth, while uncertainty and real interest rate effects are the potential channels through which the 2014 slump has depressed aggregate demand and worsened financial conditions. Also in light of the zero interest rate policy carried out by the ECB, in so far as the Quantitative Easing policy failed to generate inflationary expectations, a more expansionary fiscal policy might be required to counteract the deflationary and recessionary threat within the expected environment of soft oil prices.     

Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru

Using repeated cross-section annual data for Peru spanning 2002–2011 and non-parametric duration analysis, our estimates support the hypothesis that both stay in and exit from poverty (non-poverty) depends on the duration and sequence of poverty (non-poverty) spells. We find that longer periods in poverty reduce the probability of leaving poverty and, conversely, longer periods spent out of poverty reduce the chance of falling back into poverty. Also, we show that, at least in the last decade (of high economic growth), the probability of staying in poverty was lower than staying in non-poverty and the probability of re-entering in poverty was higher than re-entering in non-poverty, being both differences growing with the number of accumulated spells. Past experiences of poverty and non-poverty seem to be essential to predict the future status of poverty.