The Impact of Lifecycle Events on Women's Labour Force Transitions: A Panel Analysis*

This panel study explores the impact of different lifecycle events on women's labour force transitions. We explicitly investigate whether the factors that determine entry into the labour force differ from the factors that determine withdrawal from the labour force. The results demonstrate that labour force transitions – entry and withdrawal – occur more frequently among young women. The event of childbirth is strongly associated with labour force withdrawal, while marital separation and reductions in family earnings are strongly associated with labour force entry. Moreover, labour force transition probabilities are more sensitive to income‐reducing events than to income‐supplementing events.     

A DYNAMIC DECISION MODEL OF MARRIAGE,CHILDBEARING, AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN IN JAPAN*

This paper empirically examines marriage, child bearing and labour force participation behaviour of fertile‐aged women in Japan, applying an estimable dynamic model of dis‐crete choice. Using microdata from the 1994–1999 Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, the structural estimation result suggests that, overall, women are worse off with marriage and part‐time work without financial benefits. Women are better off having two or more children, but considerably worse off because of the burden of raising infants. In addition, probabilities of finding full‐time work after career interruption are estimated at about 18% for university educated women and 12–13% for less educated women.     

The Displacement Effect of Labour‐Market Programs: MONASH Analysis*

A key question concerning labour‐market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour‐market programs. Our simulation results suggest that: (i) labour‐market programs can generate significant long‐run increases in employment; (ii) displacement percentages depend on how a labour‐market program affects the income trade‐off faced by target and non‐target groups between work and non‐work; and (iii) displacement percentages are larger in the short run than in the long run.     

Dynamics of female labour force participation in France

This article formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labour force participation. Relying on theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behaviour, we estimate a dynamic probit model with correlated random effects using longitudinal data to allow for a dynamic structure. The model is applied to a panel of married women drawn from the 1997–2002 French Labour Force surveys in order to represent their participation behaviour. It is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood. Our results show that women’s decisions to go out to work are characterized by significant state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the transitory error component. In addition, we find that the presence of young children in a woman’s household reduces her labour participation, but unequally according to their age and number. As expected, educational level has a positive impact on women’s participation. Last, a rise in the husband’s wage is found to raise female participation initially and to lower it subsequently. This empirical finding suggests that leisure may not systematically be a normal good, contrary to what is frequently assumed in the literature.     

The evolution of female labour force participation in urban China

Starting from the late 1980s, despite rapid economic growth, female labour force participation in urban China has shown a general declining trend. Using repeated cross‐sections from the Chinese Household Income Project Series (CHIP), this paper attempts to systematically relate the decrease in the labour force participation of married women to the socio‐economic changes happening in urban China during the same period of time. Adopting both linear and nonlinear decomposition techniques, the results indicate that the changes in married women's labour force participation during the periods 1995–2002 and 2007–2013 can be explained by the concurrent changes in the distribution of socio‐economic variables, while the changes during the periods 1988–1995 and 2002–2007 are mostly driven by the leftward shift of married women's participation function.     

The effect of fertility on labour force participation: The Spanish evidence

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of fertility on the decision of labour force participation of married females in Spain, allowing for the existence of unobserved characteristics that affect both fertility and participation. We use a pooling of five waves of the European Household Panel for Spain (1994–1998). Results indicate that not taking into account the unobserved characteristics that affect both variables imposes on average a strong downward bias on the true effect of fertility on participation. This bias is especially strong for highly educated females. We are grateful to Raquel Carrasco and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Financial support from Gobierno Vasco (PI-1999-160)), Ministry of Education and Science (BE2000-1394), Instituto de la Mujer and Universidad del País Vasco (UPV 00035.321-13511/2001) is gratefully acknowledged.     

For better or for worse: the long-term effects of postwar mobilization on family formation

This article estimates the long-term legacies of female labour force mobilization on women’s family formation outcomes such as marriage, age at first marriage and divorce. We identify the long-term marriage effects of female labour force mobilization by exploring postwar mandatory employment in Germany. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find that participation in postwar reconstruction efforts increased women’s probability of being currently married, ever married and marrying at younger ages. We also find that postwar employment had no differential effect on divorce rates of the affected cohorts of women. These results persist after accounting for the potential changes in the composition of the population, demand for female labour, war relief payments and postwar state-specific policies.     

HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIAN STATES AND TERRITORIES *

This article simultaneously investigates the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment and labour force participation using regional level data in Australia. The conventional univariate and panel unit root tests indicate that the hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for most of the regions in Australia. To further confirm if the hysteresis finding in unemployment and labour force participation results from not considering structural breaks. We employ a panel stationarity test recently developed by Carrion‐i‐Silvestre et al. (2005 ), which considers multiple structural breaks and cross‐sectional dependence. The test results lend support for unemployment hysteresis and participation regime‐wise stationarity. Accordingly, the findings imply that a temporary shock may have permanent effects on the unemployment rate but not on labour force participation in Australia and thus call for policies aimed at improving the adjustment mechanism in unemployment.     

Women's employment,children and transitionAn empirical analysis for Poland1

This article empirically investigates how the transition to a market economy affected the relationship between motherhood and labour force outcomes in Poland. We estimate different probit models on two panel datasets covering a three‐year period before the reform (1987–1989) and a three‐year period afterwards (1994–1996). Contrary to a priori expectations, our findings indicate that during transition young children were much less of a deterrent to the employment probability of their mother than they were before transition.     

SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMS AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF THE ELDERLY IN JAPAN*

In the present study we examine how social security programs have affected the labour force participation of the elderly over the past 40 years in Japan. Using publicly available data, we construct incentive measures for inducing retirement, to ascertain actual changes in the generosity of the programs and to explore the impact of the reforms on the labour supply of the elderly. We show that the labour force participation of the elderly is significantly sensitive to the measures, and our counter‐historical simulations show that social security reforms since 1985 featuring reduced generosity have significantly encouraged the elderly to remain in the labour force longer.     

Do Australian Qualifications Help? The Effect of Host Country Qualification on Migrant Participation and Unemployment*

The current Australian migration program rewards applicants for possessing Australian tertiary qualifications. This study examines whether such qualifications help mitigate the labour market disadvantages faced by immigrants in Australia. The effect of host country qualification on labour market assimilation is estimated by comparing the labour force participation and unemployment of natives with two groups of migrants: those holding foreign qualifications and those holding Australian qualifications. Controlling for factors such as level of education and experience, there is no evidence that Australian qualifications result in better labour market outcomes for migrants.     

ARE COMPUTERS AT HOME A FORM OF CONSUMPTION OR AN INVESTMENT? A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS FOR JAPAN*

This study examines the effect on labour market outcomes, of computer possession at home using longitudinal data collected in Japan. There are positive correlations between computer possession and women's full‐time employment and the salaries of both men and women. In a fixed effects analysis, however, no temporal, causal effects of computer possession on labour market outcomes were found. Overall, the results suggest that the positive correlation between computer possession and better labour market outcomes does not imply causality among workers strongly attached to the labour market.     

The College Wage Premium and the Expansion of Higher Education in the UK*

This paper reports estimates of the UK “college premium” for young graduates across successive cohorts from large cross‐section datasets for the UK pooled from 1994 to 2006—a period when the higher education participation rate increased dramatically. The growth in relative labour demand suggests that graduate supply considerably outstripped demand which ought to imply a fall in the premium. We find no significant fall for men and even a large, but insignificant, rise for women. Quantile regression results reveal a fall in the premium only for men in the bottom quartile of the distribution of unobserved skills.     

Unemployment, Participation and Family Incomes in the 1980s*

Microsimulation methods are used to estimate the impact of changing Australian participation and unemployment rates on the level and distribution of family disposable incomes between 1981-82 and 1988-89. Between 1983-84 and 1988-89 a fall in unemployment and an increase in the labour force participation of married women both led to significant increases in family disposable incomes Whilst the inequality increasing effect of the recession in the early 1980s was thus partly reversed, intra-family employment patterns suggest that the increased incomes due to participation increases largely bypassed those married couples at the bottom end of the income distribution.     

Wages in Managed Markets: An Explanation of the Gender Wage Gap?

Over the last decade or so in Australia, relative wages have declined in some female‐dominated occupations, notably in the care industries. This article argues that the strong growth in labour force participation of mature‐aged women has allowed wages to remain low in these ‘managed’ industries. Limited mobility across industries and occupations, at least in part due to preferences for part‐time work, and an institutional wage‐setting mechanism also play a role. Growing demand for workers in the care industries, rising skill levels of women, and slowing growth in participation as rates converge with those of men will contribute to stronger wage growth in the future.     

The Determinants of Married Women's Autonomy in Indonesia

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of married women's autonomy in Indonesia using the 2000 Indonesian Family Life Survey 3 (IFLS3). It considers the role of kinship norms and the effect of labor force participation on married women's autonomy. The measure of autonomy is based on self-reported answers to an array of questions relating to decision-making authority in the household. They include own-clothing, child-related and personal autonomy, physical mobility, and economic autonomy. The analysis examines if variations in women's autonomy are due to the prevailing kinship norms related to marriage in the community. In keeping with the anthropological literature, the analysis finds that living in patrilocal communities reduces physical autonomy for married women, whereas living in uxorilocal communities improves personal and child-related decision-making autonomy. Estimation results show that labor force participation, higher educational attainment, and increases in household wealth all have positive effects on married women's autonomy in Indonesia.     

The impact of taxes on female labour supply

There is little agreement in economics on the factors influencing labour supply and hence on the impact of taxes. Within the marginal model, real wages and incomes are directing people's labour market behaviour independent of time and space, whereas the human resources approach takes account of the social environment and past behaviour. Even if strong assumptions are made, the neoclassical theory cannot predict the outcome of a wage increase. The labour supply response depends on the relative strengths of the substitution and the income effect. Since nonparticipation in the labour market is explained by a reservation wage being higher than the market wage, this is the only situation in which neoclassical theory would predict a rise in labour force participation with a wage increase. This case occured in a ‘natural experiment’ in Sweden. The Swedish tax system changed in 1971 from joint to separate taxation of spouses resulting in a substantial increase in the net wage of married women. This article investigates the impact of the change in the Swedish tax system on female labour force participation, concluding that it cannot explain the substantial rise in the participation rates of Swedish women. This is a significant result, questioning standard neoclassical theory and supporting the more institutional views of human labour market behaviour. That is that time and space as well as the social environment are important when analyzing labour supply. This will have consequences for international comparisons. Only factors which explain developments within one country might be relevant for explaining international differences, e.g. in labour force participation.     

Alternative interpretations of hours information in an econometric model of labour supply

This paper examines the labour supply behaviour of married women in France. A sequence of models is specified and estimated which incorporate different amounts of information on observed weekly hours. In all models the distinction is drawn between search and non-participation among non-workers. We provide extensive specification diagnostics, including Heckman-Andrews tests, as well as Hausman tests for the comparison of different handlings of the hours information. It turns out that distinguishing between part-time, full-time and long hours gives virtually the same results as treating observed hours as reflecting desired hours.     

The determinants of female labour supply in Hungary

The aim of this paper is to closely examine the effect on a married woman's labour supply decision of non-labour income and of her own wage rate in a transition economy. The paper first shows that labour force participation rates for Hungarian females, though decreasing, were still extremely high and comparable to male economic activity in western countries. It then estimates labour supply parameters using a model that controls for sample selection issues associated with the labour supply of married women. Wage elasticity is estimated to be high and positive (1.81) while the income effect is consistent with leisure being a normal good. No sample selection bias is found.     

EFFECTS OF A CHILD'S DISABILITY ON AFFECTED FEMALE'S LABOUR SUPPLY IN AUSTRALIA

Australia has experienced a growing rate of child disability, with the rate of 3.7 per cent in 1998 increasing to 4.3 per cent in 2003 for children aged under four years and from 9.5 per cent to 10 per cent for children aged five to 14 years in the same period. However, surprisingly no study has examined the economic effects of child disability in the Australian context. This paper attempts to quantify the link between a child's disability and the work behaviour of the female in the affected family. Our findings provide empirical justifications for the current policy linking the severity level of child disability to the assessment of eligibility for Carer Payment (Child). We also found that child disability has different impacts on the labour market activities of married women and non‐married women. It appears that child disability imposes a greater hardship on non‐married women than on married women in terms of work choice decision. Once non‐married women manage to enter the labour force, they may have to stay on to work as usual even if they have a disabled child, because they may not have other family members to turn to for help as married women do.