Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.     

Dominant Currencies and the Future of the Euro

The paper's thesis is that the US dollar, despite the inevitable erosion of market share that it will suffer at the hands of the euro, will remain the most important international currency. The transaction domain of an international currency depends on its ability to lower transaction costs relative to alternative currencies. The EMU financial markets will not be as integrated, and thus as liquid, as the US financial markets for quite some time, thus favoring the use of the dollar as a medium of exchange. Inertia and reputational considerations further favor the dollar. The future value of the exchange rate dollar-euro will depend on economic fundamentals more than on portfolio shifts. Portfolio shifts argue for an appreciation of the euro; but fundamentals can swamp the effects of portfolio shifts. Should the EMU fundamentals reflect the spirit of the Maastricht Treaty and the Growth and Stability Pact, the chances for a euro appreciation will increase. Some caution, however, is in order because the ECB is a new and untested central bank where consensus for a conservative policy may be harder to achieve than can be gleaned from a literal reading of the Maastricht Treaty.     

Interdependent bank runs under a collapsing fixed exchange rate regime

This paper provides a framework for simultaneous multiple bank runs in a country experiencing a currency crisis. The correlation of bank runs increases as the proportion of debts from foreign creditors (indexed to the dollar) to domestic creditors (indexed to the domestic currency) increases. Moreover, when the share of dollar debt is sufficiently high, this interlinkage is perfect; that is, runs occur in all banks or not at all. Consequently, a situation exists where even a solvent bank cannot borrow in the interbank market. These findings imply that as the domestic banking sector becomes increasingly dependent on dollar debt, there is a heightened requirement for dollar reserves and a lender-of-last-resort facility.     

关键货币境外余额的国际政治经济学——美国的境外美元管理及其对中国的影响

关键货币境外余额是重要的国际经济变量,它不仅会影响关键货币的国际地位和全球金融市场稳定,也关系到境外关键货币持有国的经济稳定和储备资产安全。关键货币国通过经济、外交甚至军事手段对境外货币余额的规模、资产配置、地区分布以及持有者结构实施管理,以便实现对外融资、获取经济安全和榨取财富等多重目标。在金融危机背景下,基于经济安全、国际博弈和对外融资的目的,美国大致会阶段性地吸引美元回流并调控其在国外的分布,但美元霸权地位和美国国内的两党政治体制将使其境外美元余额的规模在长期内进一步扩张,因此人民币近期仍面临升值压力,欧洲和新兴市场国家金融动荡将会持续甚至加剧。随着中国国内资产价格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期时段内可能会冲击中国宏观经济稳定;如果美国不能控制其财政赤字,中国将长期面临美债和美元违约的巨大风险。中国需要降低宏观脆弱性,加速调整经济发展模式,从根本上摆脱美元陷阱。     

An Interpretation of the Collapsing Process of the Bretton Woods System

This paper attempts to determine the environments that market confidence might play a significant role in the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. We build a game-theoretic model of currency crises where a continuum of small speculators can decide their market confidence and trading positions. In the model, the convertibility of dollar is assumed to exhibit a long-term downtrend due to Triffin’s dilemma. The problem is analyzed on the grounds of both certainty and uncertainty. In the certainty case, we find that if the convertibility of dollar is low enough, a dollar crisis is inevitable, but if the convertibility is in an intermediate range with multiple equilibria, the Bretton Woods system is vulnerable to self-fulfilling speculation. In the uncertainty case, the incidence of the confidence crises will disproportionately increase as the convertibility of dollar falls. Lastly, this paper shows that the Federal Reserve Bank’s secrecy may extend the maximum lifespan of the Bretton Woods system.     

Was it really a dollar peg?: The exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, 1980–1997

This paper examines the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries during the period preceding the currency crisis of 1997, in an attempt to ascertain the extent to which they could be considered, as they frequently are, as a dollar peg. We do so by estimating the implicit weights of foreign currencies in the nominal exchange rate determination of East Asian currencies by means of a time-varying parameter model. The crucial element of our approach concerns how the weight of the Japanese yen was altered in response to the movement of the yen–dollar exchange rate. It is found that, while the weight of the U.S. dollar was large and the weight of the Japanese yen was small for the period as a whole, the weight of the yen was raised in some of the countries in the early 1990s. In particular, the Korean and Malaysian authorities raised the weight of the yen when the yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar, while the Singaporean authorities raised the weight of the yen when the yen appreciated against the dollar.     

Interdependence of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets from the US and Japan

Abstract

During the 12 years since 1992 when people started to use the dollar as a currency in Cambodia, the share of the dollar has reached more than 70% of the total currency. This dollarization phenomenon has resulted in large seigniorage losses for the Cambodian government. The costs are estimated up to US$682 million at the end of 2004 with an additional US$61 million lost annually. Furthermore, there are many other kinds of costs caused by the side effects of seigniorage loss. Without siegiorage, some monetary, fiscal and foreign trade policies are no longer available. Worsening the distortion of income distribution is another side effect. These are major costs of dollarization over the direct seigniorage loss. The benefits of dollarization include stabilizing price levels and lowering the risk of national default during a foreign currency crisis. It is not difficult to conclude that the costs of dollarization outweigh the benefits.

There are two de-dollarization methods. One is a policy that prohibits people from using the dollar as a currency by law. The other is the policy that widens the difference of the costs and the benefits of using dollars, also by law. Either method is applicable but it seems reasonable that the method of prohibition by direct law would be more effective and efficient than the other method, since 84% of the total population exclusively uses the riel in Cambodia.

It is totally dependent on the decision of the Cambodian government whether or not a de-dollarization policy is adopted. The results of the decision, for good or ill, will rest finally with the people of Cambodia.     

China's Exchange Rate Movements and Corporate Currency Invoicing Strategies

Since China introduced a new managed floating exchange rate regime in 2005, the persistent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has led Chinese firms to reassess their choice of invoice currency among the dollar and other international alternatives to price their exports. The present paper performs a systematic invoice currency analysis by surveying the published literature, summarizing criteria for decision-making, and evaluating the choices available to Chinese exporters implementing currency invoicing strategies to maximize expected profits. This study finds that the euro could play an increasing role as the invoice currency of Chinese firms, although the US dollar will still play a dominant role. Chinese exporters might shift gradually from the dollar to the euro in the face of the falling dollar, balancing between the two by necessity.     

弱势美元背景下的中国资本账户开放

2006年以来,美元对国际主要货币的大幅贬值导致全球金融市场动荡,国际短期资本大量流向中国,威胁中国的金融安全,使中国有步骤推进人民币资本账户可兑换、促进跨境资金双向流动的计划受到挑战。中国需要继续完善市场经济体制,按照市场化原则稳步推进资本账户开放;采取盯住货币汇率制度、完善外汇市场等手段,促进人民币汇率的稳定和灵活;提升人民币的国际影响力,增强中国经济抵抗外部冲击的能力。     

On the determinants of exporters' currency pricing: History vs. expectations

The purpose of this paper is to investigate why the choice of invoice currency under exchange rate uncertainty depends not only on expectations but also on history. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the US dollar has historically been the dominant vehicle currency in developing countries. The theoretical analysis is based on an open economy model of monopolistic competition. When the market is competitive enough, the exporting firms tend to set their prices not to deviate from those of the competitors. As a result, a coordination failure can lead the third currency to be a less efficient equilibrium invoice currency. The role of expectations is important in selecting the equilibrium in the static framework. However, in the dynamic model with staggered price-setting, the role of history becomes another key determinant of the equilibrium currency pricing. The role of history may dominate the role of expectations when the firms are myopic, particularly in the competitive local market. It also becomes dominant in the staggered price setting when a fraction of the new price setters are backward-looking. The result suggests the importance of history in explaining why the firm tends to choose the US dollar as vehicle currency. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 548–568.     

The Dollar Exposure of Japanese Companies

The bulk of Japanese exports and imports are denominated in U.S. dollars rather than Japan's local currency, the yen. The consequences of dollar invoicing depend importantly on the extent to which Japanese companies hedge their dollar exposures. If they fully hedge their dollar exposures, then the choice of invoicing currency will not influence the yen profits of Japanese companies. This paper examines the degree to which Japanese companies hedge by estimating their exposure to movements in the dollar. Using Japanese stock market data and an international version of the CAPM model I estimate the extent to which Japanese company returns are correlated with changes in the yen–dollar exchange rate. The results suggest many Japanese companies are indeed exposed to yen–dollar movements and that dollar appreciations generally are positively correlated with firm returns. Since over the period 1984 to 1995, the dollar depreciated by 36% relative to the yen, it follows that the values of Japanese companies fell as a consequence of their dollar exposure.J. Japan. Int. Econ.Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 388–405. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1220.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F31, G12, F23.     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

A tale of Asian exchange rate management: Romance of the three currencies

Asian currencies lack regional policy coordination and are therefore subject to volatilities such as the Asian currency crisis of 1997/99. As the Asian currencies have already been observed to be ‘flying-in-unison’, a stable exchange rate arrangement can be helpful as the next step of evolution for regional financial stability. We consider that creating a cluster effect from coordinated efforts/policies of policy-makers can lead to regional exchange rate stability. To demonstrate this cluster effect, a three-party-game is computed for an Asian bloc, viz-á-viz US dollar and the Euro, based on a Nash and a cooperative equilibrium. The cluster effect would generate external and internal pressures that work towards the formation of a regional currency, although the exact form of exchange rate regime would have to await political consensus. There are substantial welfare gains within Asia network economy through currency cooperation. The formation of an Asian currency bloc would also create counter-balance to the current dominance of the US dollar and the Euro. Like the epic story of Three Kingdoms who sought hegemony in Chinese history, the Asian currency bloc will contend with many possible outcomes of competition as well as cooperation.     

Should East Asia’s currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency

Growing concern that a dollar peg exposes East Asian economies to fluctuations in the dollar–yen exchange rate has stimulated research on currency basket regimes as alternatives for these economies. However, existing studies have mostly ignored an important characteristic of East Asia, i.e., most of its international trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollars. This paper investigates how the preponderance of dollar invoicing affects optimal currency basket regimes for East Asian economies. I develop a three-country center-periphery sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the analysis. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximations to the policy functions with the expected lifetime utility of households chosen as the welfare criterion. Contrary to the conjecture of existing literature, I show that predominance of dollar invoicing implies that the dollar should receive a smaller weight than suggested by bilateral trade shares between emerging markets in East Asia and the United States. The results hinge on the interaction of different degrees of pass-through implied by the choice of invoice currency and endogenous responses of monetary policies in the center countries.     

美元将在“全球赎买”中走向衰败

美元的“全球赎买”引发了全球危机，又将在“全球赎买”浪潮中由强变弱，并最终丧失其“一元独大”的国际货币地位。判断美元的未来，就是看美元能不能继续保持国际储备贷币、国际结算货币以及国际初级产品定价货币三个重要的国际货币地位。本文区分了两种不同的金融危机，即市场失衡的金融危机和操纵或泛滥货币的金融危机，当前全球所面对的正是因为美国放任美元的道义责任所引发的操纵或泛滥货币的全球金融危机。美元正在经历“顺向为王、逆向衰败”的发展前景，美元衰败之时有可能就是美国解体之日。美元的衰败，对人民币既是机遇也是挑战。中国（尤其是人民币）的前途就是决战金融全球化。     

美元危机与国际货币体系共同演进的递推分析

自1960年以来,美元危机就与国际货币体系构成了相互递推演进的格局,共同的演变必将导致美元危机的消失和国际储备货币的多样化,最终形成一种超主权合成货币——特别提款权。只有这样,国际货币体系才能达成一种动态均衡,世界经济才会持续、稳定地向前发展。     

全球外汇储备、金融控制与我国的金融安全

在金融全球化时代,美国通过金融控制主宰着世界经济。美国凭借美元“中心货币”地位而攫取的国际铸币税成为弥补其经常项目逆差的稳定来源,这是全球经济不平衡的根源;作为世界头号外汇储备大国,我国面临资产价格泡沫膨胀和外汇储备稳定性下降这两大金融安全问题;美元在全球外汇储备中的比重下降将直接导致美国国际铸币税的减少,致使经常项目逆差逐步丧失稳定的弥补途径,使其容易陷入金融危机,导致后布雷顿森林体系的崩溃;我国应通过美元储备的替代来减少国际铸币税剥削,同时推进人民币的国际化以分享国际铸币税收益。     

Causes of the financial crisis and the need of monetary cooperation in East Asia

The Main causes of the East Asian financial crisis in 1997–98 can be divided into domestic and foreign ones. The domestic cause stems from structural and liquidity problems, with growing share of non‐performing loans in the financial sector, posing as the most visible manifestation of such problems. On the other side, there is the foreign cause, the sudden fall of the yen against the dollar under the region's unstable foreign exchange system and also its over‐dependency on the dollar. Unfortunately, these causes have not yet disappeared. In order to prevent another financial economic crisis from recurring and to secure the regional currency stability in the long run, an external safety device is indispensable. The purpose of the East Asian monetary cooperation device is not only to absorb the external shocks caused by abrupt changes in the dollar/yen rate and sudden flow of capital, but also to settle international liquidity problems among the regional countries. If a device for the East Asian monetary cooperation is established, transparency in both financial and physical markets will be augmented and in the process, so will be the stability of financial and physical transactions.     

货币政策目标和篮子货币最优权重的选取——基于贸易收支稳定的视角

本文首先建立模型分析在使贸易收支变动方差最小化条件下,汇率指数最优权重的选取,也就是把汇率指数的构建和货币政策的目标结合起来。本文构建了国际收支变动关于篮子货币权重的理论模型,根据贸易收支方差波动最小获得篮子货币的最优权重。进一步,本文对最优权重进行了数值模拟分析,得到出口或进口稳定的最优篮子货币的权重,在此基础上,本文模拟了人民币对美元汇率的走势,并比较了有效汇率稳定目标下篮子货币的权重和人民币对美元汇率的变化。结合宏观经济政策目标重新确定参考篮子货币汇率指数权重,有利于完善和建立参考一篮子货币的汇率制度,为篮子货币制度制定提供理论指导。     

Gold options,an attractive investment instrument for the non-U.S. investor — the case of the Belgian and Dutch investor

Summary Gold has always been an investment instrument whose popularity is closely linked to economic and political instability. Since gold transactions occur in U.S. dollars any investor with a non-U.S. dollar base currency will therefore assume exchange risk exposure. Empirical evidence is given that the gold price has historically varied inversely with the strength of the U.S. dollar. The investor whose base currency is not the dollar, i.e. the Belgian franc or Dutch guilder, incurs less risk when investing in gold than his dollar counterpart.