Inflation and relative-price variability — A model for an open economy applied to Sweden

The relationship between inflation and relative-price variability is analyzed empirically in a multi-market, partial information equilibrium model, which incorporates raw materials on the supply side, open economy characteristics and allows different supply responses across markets. The hypothesis that the expected, as well as the unexpected, rate of inflation affects relative-price variability is put forward and tested. The empirical results are consistent with the view that inflation is non-neutral, in the sense that it affects relative prices, and it is also shown that raw material prices as well as foreign demand are important determinants of relative-price variability in the Swedish economy.     

Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Historical National Accounts, 1840–19121

This paper reconstructs China's economic development between 1840 and 1912 with an estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides for the first time a time series of GDP (per capita) for the late Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), based on sectoral output and value added, in current as well as in constant prices. The present estimation of per capita GDP in the late Qing period comes out higher than previous estimations, but it still suggests low average levels of Chinese living standards. The economy during the late Qing Empire was characterized by a large and growing agricultural sector and displayed only minor structural changes. Only in the beginning of the twentieth century did the economy start to show signs of growth.     

Fisher Ideal Indexes in the National Income and Product Accounts

The mastery of the spreadsheet technique has become almost universal in economics departments. The authors explain, step-by-step, how the spreadsheet can be used as an instructional aid to teach basic microeconomic concepts.     

Low Inflation vs. Stable Inflation: Evidence from the UK, 1688–2009

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility. Using annual data from 1688 to 2009, the results show that UK inflation and its volatility have been positively correlated when inflation exceeds a certain value, but negatively correlated when inflation is below this threshold. The evidence also suggests that the break in the relationship occurs between annual inflation rates of 0.6% and 5.5%, which includes both the 2% inflation target of many central banks, and the 3.5% break point predicted by the New Keynesian model of Coibion et al. (2012).     

Structural Changes and the Scope of Inflation Targeting in Korea *

A small, open macroeconomic model that accounts for new financial accelerator effects (the effects of fluctuations in asset prices on bank credit and economic activity) is developed to evaluate various policy rules for inflation targeting. Given the conditions of asset markets and the fragility of the financial sector, monetary policy responses can potentially amplify the financial accelerator effect. Simulations are used to compare various forms of inflation targeting using a model that emphasizes long-term inflation expectations, output changes, and the asset price channels. The simulations suggest that a successful outcome can be obtained by adhering to simple forward-looking rules, rather than backward-looking policy rules. Furthermore, inflation targeting can contribute to price as well as output stability by helping to keep the financial accelerator from being activated. Inflation targeting in emerging economies can provide an environment conducive to long-term capital market development. [E51,F3,F4]     

现代化标准与国民经济核算体系研究

现代化标准是现代化理论研究中十分重要而无法回避的课题,现代化标准与国民经济核算体系有着密切的联系。     

Causal Relationships in Australian Wage Inflation and Minimum Award Rates*

When variables are correlated in time-series studies, it is often difficult to determine which is cause and effect, and in what sense. This paper applies multivariate time-series tests of causality to Australian wage, price, minimum wage award, labour demand and strike (working days lost) variables for 1953-76. The results provide tentative support for a model in which strikes are exogenous:the size of Arbitration Commission awards is determined by strikes (suggesting that a trade union capture theory of Arbitration Commission regulation may apply):money wages are determined by minimum wage awards; and the demand for labour variable (measured in this paper by the ratio of actual to potential output) is determined (in a negative relationship) by money wages.     

The effects of lay participation in courts — A cross-country analysis

Legal philosophers like Montesquieu, Hegel and Tocqueville have argued that lay participation in judicial decision-making would have benefits reaching far beyond the realm of the legal system narrowly understood. From an economic point of view, lay participation in judicial decision-making can be interpreted as a renunciation of an additional division of labor, which is expected to cause foregone benefits in terms of the costs as well as the quality of judicial decision-making. In order to be justified, these foregone benefits need to be overcompensated by other – actually realized – benefits of at least the same magnitude. This paper discusses pros and cons of lay participation, presents a new database and tests some of the theoretically derived hypotheses empirically. The effects of lay participation on the judicial system, a number of governance variables but also on economic performance indicators are rather modest. A proxy representing historic experiences with any kind of lay participation is the single most robust variable.