中国热钱现状分析及应对策略

大量热钱的流入，引起了我国经济学界的普遍关注。这一现象降低了我国货币政策的独立性、引起了国内资产价格泡沫并影响了我国汇率政策等。为此，应积极采取应对热钱的相关措施，主要包括：进一步阻止国际投机资本大量流入我国；加强对已流入国际投机资本的监管和疏导；积极稳妥地推进资本项目开放；进一步完善我国外汇管理制度，逐步实现利率市场化等，以维护我国的经济和金融安全。     

国际热钱与我国股价的关系

本文通过Granger因果检验和二元GARCH模型等实证方法分析了国际热钱流入与我国股市价格之间的关系.结果表明:国际热钱与我国股市价格有一定的相关性;我国股价短期会影响国际热钱的流入,而热钱的流入会在较长时期内影响我国股价;国际热钱和我国股价不但有波动的ARCH效应和GARCH效应,而且还具有明显的波动溢出效应,所以,防范热钱流入对股市的冲击仍是当前政策上需要加强的内容.     

热钱流入对中国经济的影响及其对策思考

从2002年开始,便有热钱进入中国市场,对我国的股市、楼市和银行系统等经济领域造成了不同程度的影响。从热钱进入的渠道、原因及其对我国经济的影响三个方面进行了深入的分析,并提出了控制热钱流入的政策建议。     

国际热钱的流入对我国PPI变化的实证研究

本文主要运用ADF检验和Granger因果检验,对2005年7月至2013年9月我国热钱流入规模与PPI同比增速之间的关系进行了计量分析.研究表明,国际热钱的流入是导致PPI上升的Granger原因,而PPI上升不是国际热钱流入的Granger原因.关于如何减少国际热钱流入对我国基础工业产品的价格影响,本文主要从防控热钱流入方面提出相关政策建议.     

漂移的热钱对中国经济的影响

热钱在我国异常流动大致经历了三个过程:2001年前热钱微量阶段;2002年至2007年间热钱净流入阶段;2008年以来热钱流动波动阶段。从热钱的流入、投机到撤离,热钱尽管有利于我国资本的国际化,在一定程度上推动了我国经济的发展,但也暗藏种种潜在风险。对外汇市场的影响按照我国现行的外汇管理政策,无论热钱是流入我国境内,还是从我国境内逃离,     

境外“热钱”、人民币汇率与物价水平

本文在准确测算境内热钱的基础上,采用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等分析方法,对当前备受关注的热钱、人民币汇率与物价水平三者之间的关系进行了深入的研究。研究结果显示,人民币升值会吸引境外热钱流入国内,同时热钱流入又增大了人民币升值压力。热钱的流入和人民币升值是物价上涨的原因,说明本轮通货膨胀兼具国际输入型和成本推动型特征。方差分解结果显示热钱流入和人民币升值引起的物价水平上涨各占物价总上涨水平的20%左右,因此并不构成本轮通货膨胀的主要原因。     

论当前形势下热钱入境的原因、风险及对策

文章对当前形势下"热钱"流入我国境内的原因、风险进行了分析,阐述了"热钱"入境带来的危害,指出要构建更为有效的监管机制,不断完善外汇管理以及相关政策,有效防范和遏制"热钱"流入,切实维护好涉外经济可持续发展的外汇政策环境。     

浅论热钱流入对我国的负面影响及对策

本文简述了热钱的概念以及热钱流入的主要渠道,并分析了热钱流入对我国造成的负面影响,由此提出了控制热钱的有效对策。     

金融危机下的"热钱"问题研究

在当前全球经济危机的背景下,热钱对中国金融稳定的影响越来越受到广泛关注.本文主要分析了热钱流入的原因、热钱对经济的影响,从当下我国经济基本面分析爆发危机的趋势并提出政策建议.     

热钱入境给我国带来的危害

热钱大量流入我国,首先严重冲击我国经济的发展,导致我国通货膨胀加剧和资产泡沫的形成。热钱为寻求高额利润四处流窜,主要流入的目标是国内房地产市场、股市、债市和期货市场等,对经济健康发展是一种不可忽视的威胁。近年来,周内房市楼价脱离实际价值飙     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.