The direct use value of municipal commonage goods and services to urban households in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

To redress past racial discrepancies in ownership and tenure, the ANC government of South Africa initiated programmes to make land accessible to the previously disadvantaged. A key component of the national land reform programme was the provision of commonage lands to urban municipalities for use by the urban poor. However, there has been no assessment of the contribution that urban commonage makes to previously disadvantaged households. This study assessed the economic benefits of the commonage programme to local households, through an in-depth survey of 90 households across three small towns in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. We examined the marketed and non-marketed consumptive direct-use values of land-based livelihoods on commonage, calculated via the ‘own reported values’ approach. The results indicate that a proportion of South Africa's urban population rely to some degree on municipal commonage for part of their livelihoods. Commonage contributions to total livelihood incomes ranged between 14 and 20%. If the contributions from commonage were excluded, the incomes of over 10% of households in each study town would drop below the poverty line. Overall, the value of harvests from commonage was worth over R1 000 (US$ 142) per hectare per year and over R4.7 million (US$ 0.68 million) per commonage per year. However, the extent and nature of use and reliance was not uniform among households, so that we developed a typology of commonage users, with four types being identified. However, rapidly growing urban populations and high levels of poverty potentially threaten the sustainability of commonage resource use. Yet the national land reform programme focuses largely on the transfer of land to municipalities and not on sustainable management. Municipalities, in turn, invest relatively little in commonage management, and the little they do is focussed on livestock production. Non-timber forest products are not considered at all, even though this study shows that they are a vital resource for the urban poor, notably for energy and construction materials.     

Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low-income countries

This article develops a framework to examine the ex ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low-income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from intellectual property rights (IPRs). The framework employs country-specific agroecological–drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40% of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual benefits of US$178 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for participation in transgenic drought tolerance research.     

Soil quality and fertilizer use rates among smallholder farmers in western Kenya

Studies of fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa have been dominated by analyses of economic and market factors having to do with infrastructure, institutions, and incentives that prevent or foster increased fertilizer demand, largely ignoring how soil fertility status conditions farmer demand for fertilizer. We apply a switching regression model to data from 260 farm households in western Kenya in order to allow for the possibility of discontinuities in fertilizer demand based on a soil carbon content (SCC) threshold. We find that the usual factors reflecting liquidity and quasi-fixed inputs are important on high-SCC plots but not on those with poorer soils. External inputs become less effective on soils with low SCC, hence the discernible shift in behaviors across soil quality regimes. For many farmers, improved fertilizer market conditions alone may be insufficient to stimulate increased fertilizer use without complementary improvements in the biophysical conditions that affect conditional factor demand.     

Genetic improvements in major US crops: the size and distribution of benefits

The distribution of welfare gains of genetic improvements in major US crops is estimated using a world agricultural trade model. Multi-market welfare estimates were 75% larger than estimates based on the price-exogenous 'change in revenue' method frequently used by plant breeders. Annual benefits of these genetic improvements range from US$ 400–600 million depending on the supply shift specification. Of this, 44–60% accrues to the US, 24–34% accrues to other developed countries. Developing and transitional economies capture 16–22% of the welfare gain. The global benefits of a one-time permanent increase in US yields are US$ 8.1 billion (discounted at 10%) and US$ 15.4 billion (discounted at 5%). Gains to consumers in developing and transitional economies range from US$ 6.1 billion (10% discount rate) to US$ 11.6 billion (5% discount rate).     

Population pressure and soil quality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Panel evidence from Kenya

Population pressure on farmlands can have two opposing effects on soil quality. It can negatively affect soil quality due to more frequent and intensive use of farmlands, but also can induce transition of farming methods towards more intensive farming in which more fertilizer and improved seeds are used in order to make smaller farmlands more productive. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the net effect is likely to be negative given the region’s current low fertilizer use. Recent studies, however, show evidence of agricultural intensification in regions with high population pressure. It is important to analyze the extent and speed of soil degradation and its relationship with population pressure. Nonetheless, empirical studies on this topic are almost non-existent, partly because soil quality is shaped over a long time horizon, and quality panel data on this issue are rare. We use unique panel data for rural households containing soil quality information from Kenya to elucidate the effect of population pressure on soil quality. We find that population pressure reduces soil quality and also induces agricultural intensification. This suggests that although farmers are trying to mitigate the negative effect of population pressure on soil quality, the rate of soil degradation is outpacing that of intensification.     

Introduction to the special issue on the role of nonfarm income in poverty reduction: evidence from Asia and East Africa

In this special issue, we present seven studies that collectively attempt to investigate the role of non‐farm income in long‐term and short‐term poverty reduction in Asia and Africa. The first four studies out of the seven use long‐term panel data over two decades in the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India. These studies show drastic increases in non‐farm income shares and corresponding declines in poverty levels over time, especially in the Philippines and Thailand. Education levels of household members and returns to education also increased significantly in these countries. The remaining three studies use cross‐sectional and short‐term panel data from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. These African studies show high proportions of poor households and low shares of non‐farm income that are somewhat comparable to the situation in the 1980s described in the Asian studies. Without the Green Revolution that provided stable farm income and potential financial resources to invest in children' education in Asia, it is not clear if African farm households can follow the Asian examples.     

An error corrected almost ideal demand system for major cereals in Kenya

Despite significant progress in theory and empirical methods, the analysis of food consumption patterns in developing countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), has received very limited attention. An attempt is made in this article to estimate an Error Corrected Almost Ideal Demand System for four major cereals consumed in Kenya employing annual data from 1963 to 2005. This demand system performs well on both theoretical and empirical grounds. The symmetry and homogeneity conditions are supported by the data and the  Le Chatelier  principle holds. Empirically, all own-price elasticities are negative and significant at 5% level and irrespective of the time horizon, maize, wheat, rice, and sorghum may be considered as necessities in Kenya. While the expenditure elasticities of all four cereals are positive, they are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run. Finally, wheat and rice complement maize consumption in Kenya while sorghum acts as a substitute. Since cereal consumers have price and income inelastic responses, a combination of income and price-oriented policies could improve cereal consumption in Kenya.     

Bt Cotton,Pesticide Use and Environmental Efficiency in Pakistan

There is a broad literature on the impact of Bt cotton adoption in different countries, but few studies have explicitly looked at environmental and health effects from an economic perspective. We analyse the impact of Bt cotton on environmental efficiency in Pakistan, using farm survey data and a doubly heteroskedastic stochastic production function framework. Negative environmental and health effects of chemical pesticide use are quantified with the environmental impact quotient. Bt‐adopting farms have higher cotton yields, while using lower pesticide quantities and causing less environmental damage. Bt farms are both technically and environmentally more efficient than non‐Bt farms. Bt adoption increases environmental efficiency by 37%. Achieving the same reduction in negative environmental and health impact without Bt would cost conventional cotton farmers US$ 54 per acre in terms of foregone yields and revenues (7% of total revenues). Extrapolating this shadow price of the technology's health and environmental benefits to the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan results in an aggregate value of US$ 370 million. These benefits are in addition to the profit gains for Bt‐adopting farmers. Our results suggest that Bt technology can contribute to sustainable agricultural development.     

International Trade and Manufacturing Employment in the South: Four Country Case Studies

This paper investigates the impact of international trade on manufacturing employment in developing countries, by undertaking a comparative study of four countries—Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa and Vietnam. It does so by employing a variety of methodological approaches: factor content; growth accounting; and econometric modelling. The main empirical finding is that international trade seems to be associated with the net creation of jobs in Bangladesh and Vietnam, with female workers being the key beneficiaries. In contrast, international trade has been associated with adverse employment outcomes in Kenya, and possibly in South Africa. This suggests that there may be crucial differences between Asia and Africa in terms of the impact of globalization on employment opportunities in manufacturing. Some alternative explanations for such differences are offered in the paper.     

The estimated ex ante economic impact of Bt cowpea in Niger,Benin and Northern Nigeria

Genetically modified (GM) crops could increase economic growth and enhance living standards in Africa, but political issues have slowed the use of biotechnology. This is the first study that assesses the potential impact of GM crops in Africa while considering the preferences of producers and consumers towards GMOs as well as the income and price risks they face. The study uses a choice experiment to estimate the ex ante economic impact of a novel technology, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cowpea, on producers and consumers in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria. The experiment involves the simulation of a market transaction similar to those in open air markets in West Africa. During the market simulation, respondents are informed about the advantages and disadvantages, including health risks, of Bt cowpea. The results from the study suggest that cowpea growers and consumers in Benin and northern Nigeria prefer Bt to conventional cowpea for health safety reasons. The results estimate that social welfare in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria would increase by at least US$11.82 per capita annually with Bt cowpea, if seed sectors are operating smoothly. With inefficiencies in seed sectors and the potential for cowpea acreage increase, the estimated social welfare increase in the region would be about US$1.26 per capita annually.     

Ex Ante Evaluation of Drought‐Tolerant Varieties in Eastern and Central Africa

This study presents a model to estimate potential benefits of drought‐tolerant varieties of maize, sorghum and millet in Kenya, Uganda and the Amhara region of Ethiopia. In addition to the benefits from mean yield increases, the model takes into account risk benefits associated with yield‐stabilising varieties. Ex ante estimates provided for different drought zones and for different household types within drought zones of each country suggest that drought resistance generates substantial benefits from both mean yield improvements and yield variance reductions for both consumers and small, medium and large producers.     

Modeling the Effects of Input Market Reforms on Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: A Case Study from Kenya

Kenya is one of the few countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa to experience an impressive rise in fertiliser use following a series of input market reforms in the early 1990s. Two major consequences of these reforms were declining fertiliser marketing margins and distances between farmers and fertiliser dealers. We quantify the effects of these changes on commercial fertiliser use and maize production in Kenya by estimating fertiliser demand and maize supply response functions using nationwide household survey data. Our results indicate that between 1997 and 2010, the estimated 27% reduction in real fertiliser prices that can be attributed to falling marketing margins associated with market reforms led to a 36% increase in nitrogen use on maize fields and a 9% increase in maize production resulting from both yield and acreage effects. On the other hand, decreasing distances to fertiliser retailers from the perspective of a given household did not appear to raise fertiliser use or maize supply, although a comparison across households using average distances over the panel indicate that those closer to retailers do apply more fertiliser on their maize fields.     

Acceptance of genetically modified food: comparing consumer perspectives in the United States and South Korea

This study examines public perceptions of biotechnology, specifically the consumer approval of genetically modified food products, from plant as well as from animal origin, based on data collected from national surveys conducted in both the United States and South Korea. South Korean consumers reported better understanding of food production, science, and technology relative to U.S. consumers. South Korean consumers also recalled having heard more about genetic modification than did U.S. consumers. Findings also suggest that consumers in the United States and South Korea who possessed an accurate knowledge of the applications and outcomes of genetic modification technology were more likely to approve of its use for the creation of foods than those who had inaccurate or no knowledge of the technology. Results also indicate that consumers who considered labeling of genetically modified foods to be necessary are less likely to approve of the genetic modification of foods than those who did not. Consumers in both countries are less approving of genetic modification of animals than the genetic modification of plants. However, U.S. consumers are more approving of using genetic modification technology to create animal‐derived foods than are South Korean consumers.     

Does sustainable intensification of maize production enhance child nutrition? Evidence from rural Tanzania

Food insecurity, child malnutrition, and land degradation remain persistent problems in sub‐Saharan Africa. Agricultural sustainable intensification (SI) has been proposed as a possible solution to simultaneously address these challenges. Yet there is little empirical evidence on if agricultural management practices and inputs that contribute to SI from an environmental standpoint do indeed improve food security or child nutrition. We use three waves of data from the nationally‐representative Tanzania National Panel Survey to analyze the child nutrition effects of rural households’ adoption of farming practices that can contribute to the SI of maize production. We group households into four categories based on their use of three soil fertility management practices on their maize plots: “Nonadoption”; “Intensification” (use of inorganic fertilizer only); “Sustainable” (use of organic fertilizer, maize–legume intercropping, or both); and “SI” (joint use of inorganic fertilizer with organic fertilizer and/or maize–legume intercropping). The results from multinomial endogenous treatment effects models with the Mundlak–Chamberlain device suggest that use of practices in the “SI” category is associated with improvements in children's height‐for‐age and weight‐for‐age z‐scores relative to “Nonadoption,” particularly for children aged 25–59 months. These effects appear to come through improvements in both crop income and productivity.     

The economics of land fragmentation in the north of Vietnam*

Land fragmentation, where a single farm has a number of parcels of land, is a common feature of agriculture in many countries, especially in developing countries. In Vietnam, land fragmentation is common, especially in the north. For the whole country, there are about 75 million parcels of land, an average of seven to eight plots per farm household. Such fragmentation can be seen to have negative and positive benefits for farm households and the community generally. Comparative statics analysis and analysis of survey data have led to the conclusion that small‐sized farms are likely to be more fragmented, and that fragmentation had a negative impact on crop productivity and increased family labour use and other money expenses. Policies which allow the appropriate opportunity cost of labour to be reflected at the farm level may provide appropriate incentives to trigger farm size change and land consolidation. Policies which tip the benefits in favour of fewer and larger plots, such as strong and effective research and development, an active extension system and strong administrative management, may also lead to land consolidation.     

Efficiency and equity of rural land markets and the impact on income: Evidence in Kenya and Uganda from 2003 to 2015

This study examines the evolution of land sales and rental markets and their impact on agricultural efficiency in rural Kenya and Uganda using panel data spanning over 10 years. Both countries show that land markets induce efficiency by transferring land to households with higher farming ability. In both countries, land markets enhance equity by transferring land from land-abundant to land-constrained households. Although renting in land increases crop income in Kenya, we find no evidence that it enables households to escape from poverty. In contrast, increase in owned land helped decrease poverty in Uganda. Parcel-level analysis reveals that rented-in land and owned land differ in productivity levels and crop choice. These findings point to the potential weaknesses in the land markets in Kenya and Uganda that impede their ability to contribute to poverty alleviation.     

Stages and determinants of fertilizer use in semiarid African agriculture: the Niger experience

Fertilization is a stepwise decision in Niger. Survey data from a representative sample of 100 households were utilized with individual and joint estimation to evaluate the determinants of fertilizer use at its three different stages: manure alone and two different types of inorganic fertilizer application. The fertilizer price relative to the millet price was always a highly significant determinant of fertilizer adoption. Farmers' experience in seeing the results of fertilization in the field was a principal factor influencing the use of manure and of the micro‐fertilization. Other studies in semiarid regions have emphasized risk, liquidity, or fertilizer responsiveness under harsh conditions but the shift to the micro doses of inorganic fertilizer was statistically associated here with the demonstration trials and the price ratios (fertilizer/millet). A variable reflecting the millet price recovery approximately 6 months after harvest was the most important factor in the decision to raise further inorganic fertilizer use with side dressing. Policy implications were focused on the importance of demonstration trials and improvements in the economic conditions (millet–fertilizer price ratios).     

Pesticide Productivity and Transgenic Cotton Technology: The South African Smallholder Case

This paper empirically investigates how the productivity of pesticide differs in Bt versus non‐Bt technology for South African cotton smallholders, and what the implications for pesticide use levels are in the two technologies. This is accomplished by applying a damage control framework to farm‐level data from Makhathini flats, KwaZulu‐Natal. Contrary to findings elsewhere, notably China, that farmers over‐use pesticides and that transgenic technology benefits farmers by enabling large reductions in pesticide use, the econometric evidence here indicates that non‐Bt smallholders in South Africa under‐use pesticide. Thus, the main potential contribution of the new technology is to enable them to realise lost productivity resulting from under‐use. By providing a natural substitute for pesticide, the Bt technology enables the smallholders to circumvent credit and labour constraints associated with pesticide application. Thus, the same technology that greatly reduces pesticide applications but only mildly affects yields, when used by large‐scale farmers in China and elsewhere, benefits South‐African smallholder farmers primarily via a yield‐enhancing effect.     

A latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in Uganda

This study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified (GM) staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization. We focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease‐resistant GM banana variety in Uganda, where bananas are among the most important staple crops. A choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana (such as bunch size, technology, producer benefit, and price) and examine their opinions on GM foodstuff. Choice data come from 421 banana‐consuming households randomly selected from three regions of Uganda. A latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept GM bananas. Our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample. GM bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the Eastern region. These food‐insecure households would experience the highest benefits (i.e., welfare gains) from the commercial release of GM bananas. In contrast, urban consumers are less accepting of GM bananas, and they would experience significant welfare losses if GM banana is released. According to our welfare estimates, both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large. These results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of GM bananas on the Ugandan society as a whole.     

One size does not fit all: Heterogeneous economic impact of integrated pest management practices for mango fruit flies in Kenya—a machine learning approach

Most previous studies evaluating agricultural technology adoption focus on estimating homogeneous average treatment effects across technology adopters. Understanding the heterogeneous effects and drivers of impact heterogeneity should enable interventions to be better targeted to maximise benefits. We apply machine learning using data from a randomised controlled trial to estimate the heterogeneous treatment effect of fruit fly IPM practices (i.e., parasitoids, orchard sanitation, use of food bait, biopesticides, male annihilation technique, and their combinations) in Central Kenya. Results suggest significant heterogeneity in the effect of IPM practices conditioned on household characteristics. The most important covariates explaining differences in treatment effects are wealth, distance to the mango fruit market, age of the household head, labour and experience in mango farming. Results further indicate that those with fewer mango trees benefit more from most IPM practices. Additional analysis across other covariates shows mixed results but generally suggests significant differences between households benefiting the most and those benefiting the least from IPM practices.