Catalytic finance: When does it work?

In a model of debt crisis caused partly by creditor coordination failure, we show that bailouts that reduce ex post inefficiency will sometimes enhance the incentives for governments to take costly adjustment effort. This model helps us understand a debate about the role of the IMF in catalyzing lending to developing countries.     

第三方物流与我国零售业发展

加入世界贸易组织后,我国零售业获得了迅猛发展,但也面临着物流配送的发展建设方面投资不足、运营效率低和成本高等严重挑战。解决好这些难题、建立完善的第三方物流体系,对促进我国的零售业发展有着重大的意义。依据第三方物流促进零售企业的发展理论,针对我国零售业存在的问题,提出如何以发展第三方物流的方式促进我国零售业的发展。     

Advertising Spending Efficiency Among Top U.S. Advertisers from 1985 to 2012: Overspending or Smart Managing?

The current study tests two competing predictions of long-term adspend efficiency: the “overspending perspective” predicts continued high inefficiency, while the “smart manager perspective” predicts improved efficiency. Longitudinal analysis of efficiency among top 100 U.S. advertisers from 1985 to 2012 using data envelopment analysis reveals that inefficiency has increased over time. Approximately 61% of top advertisers are inefficiently using their ad dollars and are overspending by an average of 34%. Findings also indicate that the Internet, a medium highly praised and utilized for the amount and depth of consumer data it generates, has not impacted overall efficiency in any meaningful way.     

Turkey: Toward EU Accession

The purpose of this paper is to study selected aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Joining the EU will require that Turkey attains macroeconomic stability, adopts the Common Agricultural Policy, and liberalizes its services and network industries. Furthermore, joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation and standards – the acquis communautaire. According to the EU membership criteria, new members must be able to demonstrate the ‘ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union’. Thus Turkey will be expected to adopt the euro when it is ready to do so, but not immediately upon accession. Integration will boost allocative efficiency in the Turkish economy which in turn will make the country a better place to invest. Furthermore, Turkey will reap the benefits from monetary integration and from migration of labour to the EU. But the welfare gains will have a price, and the price will be the adjustment costs associated with the adoption of the acquis communautaire. The final section of the paper considers the effects of accession on the EU in terms of migration and budgetary effects.     

中国农产品贸易调整的能力与成本研究

文章利用入世后中国农产品贸易数据,实证分析了进、出口产品结构的现状和演化.研究表明中国进口产品结构适应世界市场变动趋势;出口则未遵照世界需求及时调整,调整能力明显低于进口.把国际市场滞后一期,中国出口调整能力依然较弱且显著;进口调整能力也要弱于当年的进口调整.指数表征中国具有贸易调整的可能性.中国可通过调整农产品贸易结构.提高国内与国际市场的对接吻合程度.促进农产品贸易条件改善.     

我国银行业2002～2011年的成本效率、规模经济与技术进步

本文利用一个三种投入一三种产出的傅立叶弹性成本函数检验我国银行业在2002～2011年的成本效率、规模经济与技术进步。实证分析表明,尽管金融市场化改革使我国银行业的非效率在样本期间呈下降趋势．但仍存在比较显著的非效率问题。分析结果也表明所有类型的商业银行在样本期内都存在显著规模经济和技术进步。     

On the adjustment speed of SMEs to their optimal capital structure

The aim of this paper is to analyse the speed of adjustment of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to the target leverage. By applying a system GMM technique to Spanish panel data collected during the period 1995?C2005, we estimate a partial adjustment model in which both target leverage and speed of adjustment are simultaneously endogenized. We provide empirical evidence on the determinants of target leverage and the speed of adjustment. More specifically, the rate of financial flexibility, growth opportunities and size are positively related to the speed of adjustment, whereas the distance to the optimal ratio of debt shows a negative impact. Our findings demonstrate that, in terms of sample mean, a high percentage of Spanish SMEs adjust rationally to their target. Additionally, the SMEs analysed appeared to be over-levered and fairly motivated to adjust (annual adjustment speed: 26%).     

货币供需失衡:基于外汇储备框架下的分析

通过构建外汇储备供需失衡框架下货币需求长、短期动态调整模型,研究了1980-2008年我国货币供需失衡与失衡调整①。结果表明货币供需失衡缺口的变化同宏观经济的波动方向大体一致,外汇储备的积累行为导致的外汇储备供需失衡,加剧了货币供需失衡的程度,并干扰了货币政策的实施,在货币供需失衡向均衡调整的过程中调整速度明显过慢。     

The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries

This paper investigates the importance of global risk factors and the predictability of returns of the 13 EU accession countries, using both unconditional and conditional asset-pricing tests during the turbulent period of 1997–2002. Applied for the first time to the full sample of EU accession countries, we conclude that the world excess return has only somewhat importance for Hungary, Poland and Turkey, indicating low financial liberalization and low integration with the world. The real G-7 interest rate followed by the world excess return, global foreign exchange rate and global inflation rates are the most influential in their explanation of the variation of local market returns. Predictability of local returns is high and variant; global instrumental variables have higher predictive power for eight countries, especially for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary, whereas local instruments are more important for the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland and Slovenia. The failure of the conditional asset-pricing model to correctly price assets confirms partial integration with the world. Except for Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia and Malta, predictability cannot be explained by time variation in economic risk premiums, but by local information, market inefficiency and/or investor irrationality.     

我国农药出口结构与竞争力的实证分析

入世后我国农药出口已进入新的发展阶段。本文系统分析了农药出口产品结构、地区结构、市场结构和企业结构的变动,并利用显示比较优势指数(RCA)、国际市场份额、市场渗透率及贸易竞争指数(NTB)等评价了我国农药出口的比较优势和竞争优势。实证分析显示,我国农药出口竞争优势很强,且提升速度较快。比较来看,农药出口的比较优势处于中等水平,且在加入世贸组织后提升不明显。     

地方政府干预、僵尸企业与资本结构动态调整

近年来，资本结构研究领域的明显趋势是对资本结构动态调整的深入探讨。各区域制度环境差异是不容忽视的影响因素，而地方政府干预是影响企业资本结构调整最基本的制度因素。僵尸企业作为地方政府干预金融市场信贷配给的副产品，负债率显著高于正常企业并居高不下。文章旨在研究地方政府干预对资本结构动态调整的影响，并探讨僵尸企业对这一影响的作用机制。研究发现：地方政府干预通过增加债务的方式加快了企业向上的资本结构调整速度，且对国有企业的促进作用更为显著。僵尸企业的“融资成本转嫁效应”抑制了地方政府干预对资本结构向上调整的促进作用，且对非国有企业的抑制作用更为显著。因此，应加强地方政府对经济的有效调控，加快对僵尸企业的清理，切实优化企业的融资环境，实现资本结构的优化调整。     

How and Why Do Firms Adjust Their Cash Holdings toward Targets? Evidence from China

We examine the dynamic adjustment of cash holdings of publicly traded Chinese firms during 1998–2006. The empirical evidence is supportive of the dynamic trade-off theory of cash holdings. In particular, there is strong evidence of asymmetric adjustments, i.e., adjustments from above the target are significantly faster than those from below. Moreover, the speeds of adjustment (SOA) are heterogeneous for firms facing differential adjustment costs. More specifically, the adjustment speed is higher in firms with bank lines of credit, positively related to the deviation from the target, but it is negatively related to firm size. Furthermore, in terms of adjustment method, firms make adjustments to their targets primarily through debt and equity financing when they are in cash shortage, On the other hand, the dividend payments play a minimal role in it. Lastly, in terms of motives for adjustment, we find that the precautionary motive arising from financial constraints well explains the cash holdings adjustment behaviors of Chinese listed firms.     

分析师跟踪与资本结构动态调整

本文使用2005～2015年沪深A股上市公司数据,实证考察了分析师跟踪与企业资本结构调整的内在联系.结果表明,分析师跟踪促进了企业资本结构调整,这种促进作用的主要机制是通过缓解资本市场信息不对称,降低资本结构调整成本,因此对信息透明度较高的企业样本组,其促进作用不明显.区分不同负债水平和不同所有制企业后,其促进作用也存在差异.进一步的研究还发现,分析师跟踪主要通过企业增加或减少债务的途径影响企业资本结构调整.     

A note on the “unique” business cycle in the Keynesian theory

In this paper, we explore the existence and “uniqueness” of a limit cycle in the Keynesian theory. In a model with the simplest (linear) Keynesian consumption function and the logistic investment function based upon the profit principle, we establish the existence of a periodic orbit (irrespective of the speed of quantity adjustment) and, with the help of the theory on generalized Liénard systems, verify the uniqueness of it for the case in which the speed of quantity adjustment is large enough.     

Institutions and corporate capital structure in the MENA region

This paper provides novel evidence on firm- and country-level determinants of firm capital structure decisions in the MENA region. Using a sample of 444 listed firms from ten countries, over the 2003–2011 period, we find that MENA firms have target leverage ratios towards which they adjust over time. Yet, the speed of adjustment varies from one country to another. Our findings also suggest that some firm-level factors are associated with leverage consistent with the trade-off and pecking order theories of capital structure. We further find robust evidence that better institutional quality leads firms to use more debt.     

A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration

This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it also results in trade diversion; that is, a declining share of accession country exports and imports with non‐EU15 countries. Overall, the trade balances of the accession countries suffer larger trade deficits after accession due to import growth surpassing export growth. The extent of increase in the trade deficit due to accession is inversely related to the level of integration and income of the new members. Hence integration is path‐dependent and the EU should take this into account when preparing for further enlargements to the Balkans and Southeast Europe.     

Enlargement and the EU Periphery: Introduction

The CEEC share of Irish exports has grown fivefold since transition began, with export sales expanding in all sectors. Even at current income levels there remains scope for a further doubling of exports, and trade will grow even more substantially if accession facilitates the CEEC in converging more rapidly on EU living standards. Most analyses predict that the EU15 sectors that face the greatest threats of enlargement‐induced disruption are Food and Textiles, Clothing and Footwear. In the case of Irish Food Processing, however, the prognosis of the present paper is positive since Irish agricultural output differs quite strongly from that of the CEE economies. The adjustment costs associated with industrial dispution, furthermore, are highest in economies with rigid labour markets, whereas the flexibility of the Irish labour market seems to have improved substantially over the last decade or so. Outward FDI from Ireland has grown strongly over the Celtic Tiger era, and Irish multinational firms have been reasonably active in acquiring companies in their sectors in Cental and Eastern Europe. The main worry for Ireland is that the more successful accession states may divert FDI inflows away from Ireland. Micro‐level analysis of the conditions pertaining in some of Ireland's most important foreign‐dominated sectors – information technology, pharma‐chem and instrument engineering – suggests that these threats may be overstated. The leading CEE economies, rather than drawing FDI away from Ireland, may instead contribute to the further development of EU‐wide production networks, making the networks themselves more competitive as global players. The net cost to Ireland of agreements already reached on the financing of enlargement is quite manageable. The cost to Ireland would escalate dramatically, however, if costs and benefits were to be redistributed within the EU in line with current income levels, entailing a substantial transformation of the CAP transfer mechanism.     

Economic growth and labor investment efficiency

We examine the relationship between economic growth and labor investment efficiency. Using a sample of US firms from 1991 to 2019, our findings suggest that labor investment inefficiency increases with the expansion of economic activities. Although economic growth increases labor overinvestment, it also decreases labor underinvestment. The magnitude effect of economic growth is more pronounced for labor overinvestment. Labor investment inefficiency is noticeable during low economic policy uncertainty. Economic growth-induced labor investment inefficiency is pronounced for (1) large firms, (2) high labor intensity firms, and (3) firms with overinvestment in non-labor investments. Further, economic growth negatively (positively) influences the firm's future performance for labor overinvested (underinvested) firms. Our findings remain robust to alternative specifications.     

Globalization and the ‘confidence game’

We show that governments in developing countries have an incentive to play the “confidence game” — wherein the need to win the confidence of the international capital market ‘can actually prevent a country from following otherwise sensible policies and force it to follow policies that it would normally consider perverse’. This incentive arises because of a combination of a ‘conformity bias’ and ‘good news bias’ in governmental decision making in an open economy, which results in inefficient outcomes which increases rather than decreases the threat of devaluation. While institutions that encourage greater transparency and the public revelation of information, may often mitigate this inefficiency, on some occasions increased transparency may even exacerbate the inefficiency.     

Changes in Polish Farmers’ Attitudes Toward Risk After Poland’s Accession to the EU

This article presents the econometric estimation of the risk attitudes of Polish farmers. For that purpose, a model of production under risk has been employed. The research is based on data from the Polish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), from the years 2004–2010. For the Polish farming sector, risk-related considerations became increasingly important after Poland’s EU accession in 2004. After the accession, Polish agriculture was affected by market liberalization, which was somewhat mitigated by CAP support. To examine the risk aversion of Polish farmers, an estimation procedure based on Antle’s (1987) approach has been applied. This study suggests that, as was the case in other countries, risk aversion decreased following EU accession, that is, the Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion based on producers specializing in field crops systematically decreased over the analyzed period.