An interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM): Endogenizing human-environment interactions in the Western Missisquoi Watershed

Forest Transition Theory (FTT) suggests that reforestation may follow deforestation as a result of and interplay between changing social, economic and ecological conditions. We develop a simplistic but empirically data driven land use transition agent-based modeling platform, interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM), that is able to reproduce the observed land use patterns and link the forest transition to parcel-level heuristic-based land use decisions and ecosystem service (ES). The ILUTABM endogenously links landowners’ land use decisions with ecosystem services (ES) provided by the lands by treating both lands and landowners as interacting agents. The ILUTABM simulates both the land use changes resulting from farmers’ decision behaviors as well as the recursive effects of changing land uses on farmers’ decision behaviors. The ILUTABM is calibrated and validated at 30 m × 30 m spatial resolution using National Land Cover Data (NLCD) 1992, 2001 and 2006 across the western Missisquoi watershed, which is located in the north-eastern US with an estimated area of 283 square kilometers and 312 farmers farming on 16% of the total Missisquoi watershed area. This study hypothesizes that farmers’ land use decisions are made primarily based on their summed expected utilities and that impacts of exogenous socio-economic factors, such as natural disasters, public policies and institutional/social reforms, on farmers’ expected utilities can significantly influence the land use transitions between agricultural and forested lands. Monte Carlo experiments under six various socio-economic conditions combined with different ES valuation schemes are used to assess the sensitivities of the ILUTABM. Goodness-of-fit measures confirm that the ILUTABM is able to reproduce 62% of the observed land use transitions. However, the spatial patterns of the observed land used transitions are more clustered than the simulated counterparts. We find that, when farmers value food provisioning Ecosystem Services (ES) more than other ES (e.g., soil and water regulation), deforestation is observed. However, when farmers value less food provisioning than other ES or they value food provisioning and other ES equally, the forest transition is observed. The ILUTABM advances the Forest Transition Theory (FTT) framework by endogenizing the interactions of socio-ecological feedbacks and socio-economic factors in a generalizable model that can be calibrated with empirical data.     

Assessing spatial dynamics of urban growth using an integrated land use model. Application in Santiago Metropolitan Area, 2010–2045

Scenario analysis of urban dynamics from spatial land use models can support urban, planning and policy. An integrated modeling approach, linking assessment of urban spatial dynamics, was applied to the Santiago Metropolitan Area (SMA). The integrated land use change model combines, a logistic regression model, Markov chain, and cellular automata. This model was calibrated with data, from 1975 to 2010, and was used to make predictions for the years 2030 and 2045, using two datasets of, urban and non-urban explanatory variables. Urban change estimates showed the highest fit during the, model calibration phase. The true-positive proportion and standard Kappa value (κ) were of 99% and, 0.87 respectively when validating against an urban cover reference map from 2010. Urban growth was, equal to +27,000 ha (72%) for the period 1975–2010, and the city of Santiago is projected to, reach approximately 93,000 ha by 2045 (+43% from 2010). In the SMA the most important, urban growth pattern is peri-urban development, referring to widespread boundaries and higher, fragmentation in peripheral municipalities. Predictions for 2030 estimate that ∼15% of the projected, urban expansion will occur outside the boundary set by the current Regulatory Plan proposal. These, results demonstrate the capacity of the integrated model to establish comparisons with urban plans, and its utility to explain both the amount and constraints of urban growth. The integrated approach of, urban dynamic assessment using land use modeling is useful for spatiotemporal representation of, distinct urban development forms.     

Institutionalization of common land property in Portugal: Tragic trends between “Commons” and “Anticommons”

The use and exploitation of natural resources is generally structured by institutions, especially by property institutions. The main objective of this paper is to present a diachronic analysis of the institutionalization of common land property in Portugal. The several types of ownership may be largely explained by common land history. We intend to draw an outline of the emergence, evolution and transition of common land from the late nineteenth century to the present day, using the matrix proposed by Heller. The economic problem of the optimal level of appropriation is recurrent in studies that analyze the economic implications of property rights. Thus, it is imperative to analyze whether or not the dimension of common land ownership is relevant to its efficient exploitation.In essence, we infer that common land ownership in the 1st period (1850–1926) may be classified as limited-access commons (limited access to commoners) with a relatively small average size of 50 ha. This common land was primarily used for grazing, firewood collecting and shrub extraction. In the second period (1926–1974), the State dictatorship invoked the public interest (forest easements) and took possession of more than 80% of common land, promoting the transition from limited-access commons to state ownership. The units of commons were aggregated in forest perimeters for Silviculture activity, the average size being greater than 3400 ha. Finally, we analyzed the institutionalization of common land ownership in the period after the democratic revolution on April 25th 1974. We concluded that the incipient legal and institutional frameworks revealed an inability to integrate an effective title to these territories to give way to a better classification of limited-exclusion anticommons. The Heller matrix approach revealed to be a useful tool, however insufficient to study holistically Portuguese common land institutionalization. In our preliminary conclusions the Heller matrix appears to be an ill-posed problem (no continuum). It allows for the reversibility between different property regimes that involve great simplifications in the epistemology of property rights.     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

Progressive fragmentation of a traditional Mediterranean landscape by hazelnut plantations: The impact of CAP over time in the Langhe region (NW Italy)

Land use change is strongly modifying the traditional landscape of hilly productive Mediterranean sites. An example of these circumstances is the Langhe region (Piemonte, NW Italy), where woody plantations such as vineyards and orchards have been cultivated on hillslopes for centuries. In this paper we assess landscape changes occurred in the Diano study area (2651 ha) in the 1954–2000 period and we ascertain land use transition paths and rates of this rural ecosystem. Land use mapping obtained from object-oriented analysis of aerial photographs was used to quantify land use changes between 1954 and 2000. To examine the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change over time, a set of spatial statistics capturing different dimensions of landscape change was identified. An increase of landscape heterogeneity from 1954 to the present was observed due to the expansion of orchards and the fragmentation of field crops. A significant portion (55%) of current orchards surface is represented by former field crops, 24% by vineyards and 15% by forests. The strong expansion of hazelnut orchards concurred to the fragmentation of traditional rural landscape was dominated by vineyards, field crops and forests. Hazelnut orchards expansion was mainly located in places where grapes cultivation was less remunerative. A further expansion of hazelnut in the area should be planned, discussed and carefully monitored through change detection studies in order to avoid potential unsustainable use of the land.     

Agricultural land use change in Karamoja Region,Uganda

We examine dramatic cropland expansion in Karamoja, Uganda by investigating the links between biophysical and political historical events leading to the current state of agricultural land use. Our objective was to quantify agricultural expansion, uncover the dominant drivers leading to the current state of agricultural land use and its impacts on livelihoods. Region wide analysis of remotely sensed data, land use policy and history as well as farmer interviews were undertaken. We posit that government programs instituting sedentary agriculture are the most significant drivers of cropland expansion in Karamoja. We show a 299% increase in cropland area between 2000 and 2011 with most expansion occurring in Moroto District (from 706 ha to 23,328 ha). We found no evidence of an increase in overall crop production or food security and food aid continues to be essential due to recurrent crop failures. Due to lack of resources for inputs (e.g., seeds and labor) cultivated fields remain very small in size and over 55% of once cultivated land is left fallow. Our findings bring into question whether continued promotion of rain-fed agriculture in Karamoja serves the best interests of the people. Current cropland expansion is directly competing and compromising pasture areas critical for livestock-based livelihoods. Without strong agricultural extension programs and major investments in climate-smart options, cropland expansion will continue to have a net negative impact, especially in the context of current climate projections which indicate a future decrease in rainfall, increase in temperature and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events.     

Changes of livelihood due to land use shifts: A case study of Yanchang County in the Loess Plateau of China

Studies of land use policies are commonly based on the environmental impacts or on people's direct responses to the policies. However, research on the impact of policy implementation on people's livelihood and activities and the subsequent economic development of an area is incomplete. We selected Yanchang County as an example to track land use changes and their effects on the livelihood of the local population following the implementation of a new land use policy known as the Grain for Green Project (GGP). The data were collected from statistical yearbooks, questionnaire surveys, and satellite imagery from 1990, 2000, and 2008. We found that dramatic land use changes have occurred in Yanchang County. The vegetation coverage improved significantly from 1990 to 2008, as the grassland and forest areas increased from 44.1% to 60.1% and from 17.7% to 18.4% of the total land area, respectively. The cultivated land declined from 37.3% to 20.7%. With the agricultural area and grain production decreasing from 64 × 10³ tons to slightly over 20 × 10³ tons per year, an increasing number of local people sought employment in towns and cities. The non-farm income increased, and the local income structure shifted. Migrant and orchard worker income contributed the most to the balance of the total household income. We narrowed our focus to discuss how the GGP accelerated the changes in the participants’ lifestyles and what might be done to sustain the long-term effects of the GGP. While the GGP has brought about considerable environmental benefits, a comprehensive study of environmental–social systems is still needed to achieve a more efficient land use policy. The research results presented in this paper demonstrate that changes in land use and people's activities were triggered by policy changes. We aim to pave the way for studies on the “policy-land-use-social development” chain and to provide references for new policies.     

Deforestation analysis in protected areas and scenario simulation for structural corridors in the agricultural frontier of Western Bahia,Brazil

The aim in this paper was to evaluate the spatial distribution of protected areas defined by law and their importance as structural corridors. The study area was 7,559,783.69 ha located in Western Bahia (Northeast Brazil), restricted to the limits of the Urucuia Group (Upper Cretaceous), where there is strong agribusiness growth. Currently, a major dilemma in Brazilian public policy arises from the conflicting interests of environmental conservation and increased food production. Brazilian environmental protection policies include the implantation of Protected Areas (Full Protection Units and Sustainable Use Units) and the adoption of the National Forest Act (Permanent Preservation Areas and Legal Reserves). In this context, we delimited illegal land-use in Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) adopting the intersection between land-use/land-cover data from PRISM/ALOS image classification for the years 2007–2010 and PPA vectors. We performed the temporal analysis in PAs considering land-use/land-cover data from Landsat TM image classification for the years 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2011. Finally, we performed a Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate whether PPAs alone are sufficient as structural corridors. Hypothetical scenarios were simulated to increase the potential of PPAs as structural corridors. The calculation of MSPA attributes was conducted considering 3 edge widths: 15 m (1 pixel), 510 m (34 pixels), and 1005 m (67 pixels). Four scenarios were simulated, considering a gradual increase in preserved areas. The results show that illegal land use is contained within PPA and protected areas. The scenario simulations present alternatives to increase the connectivity of the fragments and ensure the maintenance of ecological and hydrological services. Rapid agricultural expansion without proper landscape planning can compromise the sustainability of ecosystem services and the recharge zone of the Urucuia aquifer.     

An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis

In this study, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained land-use allocation (IFCC-LUA) model is developed for sustainable urban land-use planning management and land use policy analysis under uncertainty. This method is based on an integration of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy flexible linear programming (FFLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) techniques. Complexities in land-use planning management system can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method is applied to planning land-use allocation practice in Nanjing city, China. The objective of the IFCC-LUA is maximizing net benefit from LUA system and the main constraints include investment constraints, land suitability constraints, water/power consumption constraints and wastewater/solid waste capacity constraints. Modeling results indicate that desired system benefit will be between [1.34, 1.74] × 10¹² yuan under the minimum violating probabilities; the optimized areas of commercial land, industrial land, agricultural land, transportation land, residential land, water land, green land, landfill land and unused land will be [290, 393] hm², [176, 238] hm², [3245, 4390] hm², [126, 170] hm², [49, 66] hm², [1241, 1679] hm², [102, 138] hm², [7, 10] hm² and [178, 241] hm². They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired land use policies under various system-reliability constraints of economic development requirement and environmental capacity of pollutant. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint violation risks can also be tackled.     

Long-term impact of socio-economic changes on agricultural land use in the Polish Carpathians

The impact of socio-economic changes on land use on the period 1846–2009 are studied in village of Ochotnica (105 km²) and the Jaszcze and Jamne catchments in the Polish Carpathians. The analysis of maps, aerial photos, historical and census reports indicates that during the investigated period the forest area in Ochotnica increased by 77% and in the Jaszcze and Jamne catchments by 29% and 43%, respectively and cultivated land decreased by 94% in both catchments. The population density increased from 33 to more than 50 people/km², while employment in agriculture decreased from 98% to below 30%. The analysed period shows diverging trends of land use, referring to the three stages of socio-economic development in the Polish Carpathians. Until World War II, agricultural land contribution was the highest throughout the history of human activity. After World War II, a communist maintenance system of the land use structure was inherited from the past. A free market economy, introduced after 1989, forced the largest increase in forest area since the first colonisation of the Gorce Mountains. In contrast to the mid-mountains of Western Europe, a decrease in population density did not accompany forest expansion, nor did a dominance of small farms in the ownership system.     

Network analysis to support environmental resources management. A case study in the Cerrado,Brazil

The study examines citizens’ opinions about one crucial factor: the fire that affects the Brazilian savannah “Cerrado”. The paper aims at introducing a new tool that facilitates the assessment of people’s behaviour in order to support practitioners and decision makers to develop management strategies that fostering the environmental conservation, economic growth and human wellbeing.The study applies the network analysis in order to analyse the citizens’ opinions about causes of fire ignition and suppression activities for firefighting evoked by local inhabitants during the face-to-face interviews.The main finding carried out in this work is the usefulness of a cognitive map for synthesising a variety of people’s beliefs. Furthermore, the study reveals the general lack of awareness among people concerning fire use and management and the careless use of fire in rural activities. The chi-square test reveals that natural and physical dimensions affect society’s beliefs with statistical significance p < 0.001.     

Evaluating the conformity of informal land subdivision with the planning law in Benin metropolis

Town planning law is a regulatory framework for guiding the spatial growth of cities. As a land subdivision regulation, it embraces all development parameters in urban areas. But locally adopted land subdivision standards appear incompatible with the existing Planning Law. Evaluating the conformity of informal land subdivision standards for residential and non-residential uses with those of the existing Planning Law, land subdivision attributes were collected from four neighbourhoods and compared with the minimum approved standards. Independent-sample t-test statistics for each of the selected neighbourhoods shows no significant difference in their Mean Scores. The significant values (two-tailed) in the t-test output tables of the selected communities were consistently above the required cut-off of α = 0.05 which suggest that informal land subdivision attributes statistically conform with those of the Planning Law. Key planning implications of unplanned land use patterns that have emerged and policy options to tackle them were suggested.     

Public policies can reduce tropical deforestation: Lessons and challenges from Brazil

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation now constitutes an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is all the more important to identify cases in which economic growth has not sparked excessive forest clearance. We address the recent reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon by conducting a statistical analysis to ascertain if different levels of environmental enforcement between two groups of municipalities had any impact on this reduction. Our analysis shows that these targeted, heightened enforcement efforts avoided as much as 10,653 km² of deforestation, which translates into 1.44 × 10⁻¹ Pg C in avoided emissions for the 3 y period. Moreover, most of the carbon loss and land conversion would have occurred at the expense of closed moist forests. Although such results are encouraging, we caution that significant challenges remain for Brazil's continued success in this regard, given recent changes in the forestry code, ongoing massive investments in hydro power generation, reductions of established protected areas, and growing demand for agricultural products.     

A novel approach for assessing the contribution of agricultural systems to the sustainable development of regions with multi-scale indicators: Application to Guadeloupe

The assessment of agriculture at a regional scale is necessary to better guide regional agricultural planning. To improve the contribution of agriculture to sustainable regional development, assessments must take account of the locations and diversity of cropping systems. We have therefore developed a method based on a set of multi-scale indicators to assess the contribution of agriculture to the sustainable development of regions, and its evolution over time. This method can identify: i) sustainability issues, ii) relevant indicators that will provide information on impacts at the field scale, iii) a method to aggregate indicators, iv) data on cropping systems, and v) a database containing spatial units to analyse the whole region. Application of this method to Guadeloupe (2004–2010) enabled the definition of ten issues and 16 indicators, with three procedures to aggregate information from 36 cropping systems allocated to 11,908 fields between 2004 and 2010. Economic, social and environmental sustainability was poor in 2004, with high dependency on subsidies (47.3 M€ yr⁻¹), low agricultural added value (48.5 M€ yr⁻¹), low employment (only 1799 workers), significant risks of crop contamination and pressure on water quality. The total value of subsidies and the risks of river pollution tended to decrease between 2004 and 2010 because of a reduction in intensive banana cropping systems. In parallel, we were able to see that sugar cane, the most widespread crop in Guadeloupe, made only a small contribution to employment and food self-sufficiency during the studied period. The spatial representation revealed that improvements have been seen in southern Guadeloupe due to reductions in banana cultivation. This method was therefore helpful in identifying the most critical agricultural development issues and helping to highlight areas where relevant agricultural land use policies could be formulated.     

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the experiment, we tested three combinations of scenarios across two time periods, comparing survey responses of individuals reading a set of scenarios with individuals who did not read scenarios. Reading scenario narratives increased willingness to participate in land use planning activities and perceived self-efficacy. Measures of interest and sense of community also increased willingness to participate. Tests of an indirect mediation model found self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of reading scenarios on willingness to participate. This latter relationship may be a mechanistic explanation for the effect of reading scenarios. Envisioning the future with brief, bulleted scenarios of land use change in a print format appears to increase self-efficacy in planning for the future. Our results suggest scenarios can serve as a vehicle for changing public participation in land use planning.     

Methodology to calculate the carbon footprint of household land use in the urban planning stage

The growing concerns of climate change require implementing measures to quantify, to monitor and to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Nonetheless, most of the measures available are not easy to define or execute because they rely on current emissions and have a corrective character. To address this issue, a methodology to characterize GHG emissions that allows implementing preventive measures is proposed in this paper. The methodology is related to household urban planning procedures and considers urban infrastructures to characterize GHG emissions and to execute preventive measures based on sustainability design criteria. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a set of medium-sized municipalities with average GHG emissions from 6,822.32 kgCO_2eq/year to 5,913.79 kgCO_2eq/year for every residential unit. The results indicate that the greatest pollutant source is transport, especially in the issuance of street network design, followed by gas and electricity consumption. The average undevelopable land area required for the complete GHG emissions capture amounts to 3.42 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of urbanizable land and 9.02 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of built land.     

Reconciling rural development and ecological restoration: Strategies and policy recommendations for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Increased demand for both agricultural production and forest restoration may lead to increased competition for land in the next decades. Sustainably increasing cattle ranching productivity is a potential solution to reconcile different land uses, while also improving biodiversity conservation and the provision of ecosystem services. If not strategically implemented in integration with complementary policies, sustainable intensification can however result in negative environmental, economic and social effects. We analyzed the potential for sustainable intensification as a solution for a conflict between agricultural expansion and forest restoration in the Paraitinga Watershed at the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. In addition, we provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in the region, based on interviews with producers and local actors. We found that the Paraitinga Watershed has the potential to increase its cattle-ranching productivity and, as a result, relinquish spared land for other uses. This was true even in the most conservative intensification scenario considered (50% of the maximum potential productivity reached), in which 76,702 ha of pastures can be spared for other uses (46% of total pasture area). We found that restoration, apiculture and rural tourism are promising activities to promote sustainable development in the region, thus potentially increasing food production and mitigating competition for land. Our study shows that results from socioeconomic interviews and biophysical modelling of potential productivity increases offer robust insights into practical solutions on how to pursue sustainable development in one of the world’s most threatened biodiversity hotspots.     

Local ecological knowledge reveals effects of policy-driven land use and cover change on beekeepers in Costa Rica

Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.     

A probabilistic approach for the socioeconomic assessment of urban river rehabilitation projects

Urban river rehabilitation aims to enhance the ecological status of urban watercourses and promote measures for the local population to increase their well-being by making a direct or indirect use of the services these ecosystems may provide. The social and economic feasibility is evaluated by contrasting the resources used in the rehabilitation process with the benefits derived from it through the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). By means of a case study, this work not only introduces the most innovative CBA approaches in environmental projects, but also implements probabilistic simulation methods in order to increase the robustness of the assessment indicators.The case study encompasses two projects, whose global costs total €46 M in 50 years, for the environmental rehabilitation of the stretch of the River Segura that flows through the city of Murcia. The benefits have been obtained by a contingent valuation exercise: €3.3 M/year (€0.6 M/year of use benefits, and €2.7 M/year of non-use benefits). Three different CBA approaches (economic, extended and dual) are applied to contrast these costs and benefits, conducting the analyses of uncertainty and sensitivity of the benefit items through a Monte Carlo simulation. The results highlight the importance of environmental benefits for this kind of projects to be socioeconomically feasible thanks to the profitability indicators they provide.     

The role of wildlife-associated recreation in private land use and conservation: Providing the missing baseline

Successfully integrating human activities with ecosystem conservation forms the foundation of sustainability and is key to maintaining biological diversity. This is especially important in privately-owned lands in the U.S., which harbor high levels of biodiversity yet are often vulnerable to habitat degradation and loss. This study analyzes recreation as a sustainable use on private property, focusing on wildlife-associated recreation, defined here as fishing, hunting and wildlife watching. Eighteen national surveys implemented by three U.S. government agencies spanning 1999–2013 were analyzed to provide baseline information and an assessment of the conservation impact of recreation. Results show that approximately 440.1 million acres of private land, ∼22% of the contiguous land area of the U.S., are either leased or owned for wildlife-associated recreation. Land utilized for hunting accounts for 81% of that total. Approximately 33% of private forestland, 18% of private grazing land and 4% of private cropland is used to earn revenue from recreational activities. Annual spending for wildlife-associated recreation on private land is estimated at $814 million in day-use fees, $1.48 billion for long-term leases, and $14.8 billion to own land primarily for recreation (2011 dollars). Hunters own or lease properties of larger size classes than anglers or wildlife-watchers, indicating that hunting may provide a greater economic incentive for maintaining large unfragmented properties that provide a variety of conservation benefits. On grazing and cropland, landowners who earn income from recreation are significantly more likely to participate in government conservation programs (p < 0.001) and to pay for private conservation practices (p = 0.08). This provides support that recreation incentivizes conservation at higher rates than agricultural activities alone. Three policy measures that could further enhance conservation benefits of recreation are discussed.