From coping to adaptation to economic and institutional change – Trajectories of change in land-use management and social organization in a Biosphere Reserve community,Mexico

Smallholder farming communities are increasingly affected by local impacts of international market dynamics, and (inter)governmental economic and nature conservation policies to which they respond through coping or adaptation. Although the attributes that underpin the capacity to adapt are widely agreed upon in literature, empirical evidence on how rural communities can develop adaptations are still scarce. Here, we provide such evidence based on a comprehensive driver-response reconstruction of a community in the buffer-zone of a Biosphere Reserve in Chiapas, Mexico. We found that coping (between 1990 and 2000) was gradually replaced by adaptations (1995–2010) based on: (i) diversification of land-use, (ii) improved social organization, (iii) improved communal decision-making, and (iv) more sustainable forms of land management. The diversification of local farming systems through inclusion of organic forest-based palm and coffee cultivation and the establishment of associated organizations, formed the basis of these changes. These adaptations were mainly supported by improved social, institutional and political capital. Communal forest resources, long-term support of an NGO and a highly motivated population, were essential circumstances that allowed these trajectories to develop. However, current unequal land and power distribution could undermine and debilitate adaptive capacity. Communities and supportive organizations need to be aware and capable to adjust continuously to prevent today's adaptation strategies from becoming tomorrow's coping responses.     

Matching new entrants and retiring farmers through farm joint ventures: Insights from the Fresh Start Initiative in Cornwall,UK

Concerns about the sustainability of an ageing farming population have brought interest in so called entry-exit issues in policy circles. Policy interventions to date have offered limited scope in stimulating farm transfer in UK, however, the increase in unconventional tenures which include partnerships, share farming and contract farming (collectively called joint ventures) would appear to offer new opportunities for those wishing to enter or leave farming. In recognition of this the Fresh Start initiative in Cornwall set up a matchmaking element with the aim of identifying and facilitating potential joint ventures agreements between new entrants and older farmers. The emphasis was on setting up long-term arrangements that would enable the new entrant to ‘buy into’ an existing farm business, gradually taking over managerial control. This paper examines the processes of matching partners for the possible formation of farm joint ventures, using qualitative data derived from interviews with the participants, deliverers and stakeholders involved in the matchmaking element of this initiative. The results reveal that there is a deep rooted reluctance amongst participants in the initiative to enter formal long term joint ventures due to differing motivations, expectations, and concerns about their respective responsibilities in the working relationship and about the validity of the legal framework. Only where a relationship had already been informally established was there a commitment to formalise a joint venture agreement. Future emphasis in policy should therefore be on helping to facilitate and formalise existing partnerships, rather than trying to artificially orchestrate matches where the parties do not know each other.     

农户农业化学品投入的影响分析

农业化学品的使用在近30年来获得了极大的增长，到了需要考虑其投入产出边际效益的时候了。农业化学品价格的持续增长给衣户生产带来很大的经济负担；农业化学品的大量使用也正在日益出现重大的负面影响。需要从技术改良的角度考虑主要农作物农业化学品投入与产出的比较，从政策上推动衣户合理使用农业化学品。     

农户层次氮素投入影响因素实证分析——以华北平原冬小麦为例

本文以华北平原冬小麦为倒，利用中德合作教育项目一华北平原集约化作物生产体系中资源可持续利用的农户调查数据，构建双对数模型对农户层次氮肥投入的影响因素进行了研究。结果表明氮素价格、土壤潜在生产能力、种植业收入比重、农业劳动力年龄、种植规模和是否施用有机肥料等因素显著影响着农户冬小麦氮素投入量。在分析和讨论的基础上，提出了合理施用氮肥的政策建议。     

Projections of maize yield vulnerability to droughts and adaptation options in Uganda

Sub-Saharan Africa is likely going to experience more intense and frequent droughts with high parallel possibilities of ramifications on maize yields. While there is a lot of scholarship dwelling on the ramifications of droughts on maize yields at the level of Africa, little has been researched at lower scales. This study presents past (1960–2014) vulnerability of maize yields to droughts based on a previous study (Epule et al., 2017) and projects the future vulnerability of maize yields to droughts by calculating the sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of maize yields to droughts for the period 2015–2050. The results show that maize yields are more vulnerable in the north of Uganda for the period 1960–2014. However, adaptive capacity is higher in the south. Maize yields also record higher levels of sensitivity and exposure in the north with the latter patterns explained by variations in precipitation, temperature, rich volcanic soils, access to rivers and lakes. In terms of future vulnerability for the period 2015–2050, this study shows that the level of vulnerability of maize yields to droughts in Uganda will increase to levels higher than what currently obtains. For example, the vulnerability index will increase from 0.54 under the 1.5 °C to 0.70 under the 2.0 °C and to 1.54 under the 2.5 °C scenario. Sensitivity is also likely to increase while exposure and adaptive capacity are most likely to remain the same. Overall, it can be said that the future of maize production in Uganda under present and future circumstances remains very bleak without concrete actions. As a way forward, land use policy designers will have to integrate water management, agroforestry, climatic information diffusion, training and indigenous knowledge into land use planning decisions in the context of agriculture.     

田间灌溉渠道有效管理的理论探讨

从目前田间灌溉渠道管理存在的问题,引出了如何加强土渠的建设管理以及土渠的日常管理模式.提出以加强参与主体的激励,明确各方责权利为原则建立田间灌溉土渠管理.从适应中国大部分相对独立,以村为单位田间灌溉渠道的特点,把供水者作为土渠管理的核心.     

当前农民政治参与的特点、问题及对策探讨——基于全国31省270村4794户农户的问卷调查

农民的政治参与是我国民主政治发展的显著标志。目前对农民政治参与的研究,都是基于个案观察或者政策文本所进行的定性分析为主,根据调查数据进行定量分析研究的较少。本文通过以农民个人为分析单位,以问卷调查的方式,从实证角度研究转型时期农民的政治参与,概括当前农民政治参与的特点、存在的问题,并试图提出促进农民政治参与的建议。     

农户保险需求影响因素实证分析——以贵州铜仁地区为例

本文就2005年对贵州铜仁地区展开的农户金融行为研究调查问卷．运用Probit模型分别对包舍强制性约束的广义农户保险需求以及自主条件下农户保险需求的影响因素进行了探讨．研究发现：①包含强制性约束的广义农户保险需求以及自主条件下农户保险需求是有差异的，而代表了农户自主支付意愿的保险需求信息对保险公司而言才是有价值的信息；②两个模型在家庭财富变量的作用方向以及数量大小方面有较强的相似；④户主年龄以及家庭规模在广义农户保险需求模型中作用方向为负．而在自主条件下为正；家庭收入来源的多样化在广义农户保险需求模型中作用方向为正．而在自主条件下为负；家庭劳动力负担率、教育程度、土地规模影响广义农户保险需求．而不影响自主条件下的农户需求。     

小农户参与农业全产业链的选择偏好及其异质性来源——基于选择实验法的分析

小农户参与农业全产业链是"实现小农户和现代农业发展有机衔接"的有效途径。本文基于山东省339户小农户的入户调查数据,采用选择实验法,建立混合Logit模型分析了小农户参与农业全产业链的选择偏好和偏好异质性来源。研究结果表明:相对于与龙头企业合作,小农户更愿意通过加入农民专业合作社参与农业全产业链,而且稳定紧密的利益联结机制、提供生产技术和市场信息服务及补贴政策会显著提高小农户的参与效用。研究也表明:小农户参与农业全产业链的选择偏好存在异质性,异质性偏好主要来源于小农户的兼业程度、家庭年纯收入和收入在村中所处水平三个因素。小农户兼业程度越低、年纯收入越低、收入在村中所处水平越低,越偏好参与农业全产业链经营。     

影响林农木本食品安全生产因素研究

根据农户行为理论分析结果,运用Tobit模型对浙江省杭州市临安区的119户山核桃种植户安全生产行为的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:性别、年龄、受教育程度、户主对农药危害认知以及是否参加合作社对林农进行山核桃安全生产具有显著的负向影响;经营地产量、户主化肥使用标准以及种植户所在地区对林农进行山核桃安全生产具有显著的正向影响。因此,为了规范木本食品安全生产,从林农角度而言,应加强学习相关种植知识并提升个人素质;从政府和山核桃种植协会而言,应加强对林农进行安全用药知识宣传并组织技术培训,此外还应推进山核桃种合作社建立。