Public evaluation of landscape content and change: Several examples from Europe

This paper considers rural land use by analysing stakeholder values and perceptions concerning various landscape components. The purpose is to show that landscape content and land cover interactions with societal connections should be a base for land use development. The practical goal is to deliberate research tools to quantify public opinions and attitudes, which could form bases for developing of decision support tools. The main research objectives are: (1) to assess existing opinions concerning land use changes and provide a clearer insight into public attitudes to the role of woodlands for an integrated development of the countryside; (2) to place ecological and socio-economic values on inanimate natural components of landscapes; and (3) to assess values and preferences held by land use policy and management experts regarding multiple landscape components and features to assist in decision-making. Through the different levels of importance (values) accorded by the respondents to the integration of nature components in rural landscapes public priorities were identified. The paper develops an understanding of why certain aspects of land use changes are unfavourably viewed by some people and favourably received by others. It suggests some innovative perspectives on the areas of consensus and conflict between people, providing initial information for the selection and evaluation of land use management decisions.     

Patterns and processes of pasture to crop conversion in Brazil: Evidence from Mato Grosso State

The rate and location of cropland expansion onto cattle pastures in Brazil could affect global food security, climate change, and economic growth. We combined mapping, statistical modeling, and qualitative methods to investigate patterns and processes of pasture to crop conversion (P2C) in Mato Grosso State (MT), Brazil, a globally important center of agricultural production. P2C land constituted 49% of cropland expansion from 2000 to 2013. For a random sample of ̃250 m pixels in MT, we estimated a regression model skilled at predicting P2C land in the rest of the state as a function of cattle ranching suitability, cropping suitability, and P2C conversion costs. Surprisingly, just 1/7 of pasture agronomically suitable for cultivation had undergone P2C. Hedonic regressions revealed that agronomic characteristics of land were associated with less than 20% of the variation in cropland suitability. Instead, the majority of the variation stemmed from a combination of proximity to agricultural infrastructure, characteristics of neighboring lands, and time fixed effects. The weak relationship between agronomic characteristics of land and P2C location suggests a less certain future for P2C than projections made with agronomic models. Consequentially, complications may arise for greenhouse gas mitigation policies in Brazil predicated on widespread expansion of cropland on pasture vs. natural areas. Our follow-up qualitative research shows that because P2C has often involved land rentals or sales, poorly functioning land institutions may have constrained P2C. Locally poor land quality, omitted from agronomic P2C predictions, can either catalyze or constrain P2C by limiting returns to ranching, farming, or both. Interventions to control rates and locations of P2C should take these insights into account.     

Shaping the landscape: Agricultural policies and local biodiversity schemes

This paper analyses the potential effect of local agro-environmental policies in promoting multifunctionality in a rural landscape, with a two-scale modelling framework: a regional scale for food demand and a local scale for the forces driving land use. The framework has been designed in four steps. First, the relative influence of the driving factors on the current land use pattern has been analysed. Two scenarios are designed that vary the external demand for the total land use, and alter more or less quickly the specific location factors that drive the landscape pattern. The first scenario considers trends in the external and internal driving forces. The second relies both on totally decoupled farm subsidies and unregulated housing growth. In both scenarios a local agro-environmental policy is introduced and we compare its consequences with the previous scenario's landscape pattern. The third step consists of a modelling exercise that analyses the likely outcome of each scenario on the development of land use patterns on a local scale. Last, these landscape patterns have been translated into ecological indexes that assess the effect of the policy options on the multifunctionality of the local landscape.     

Uncertainty awareness in urban sprawl simulations: Lessons from a small US metropolitan region

Land use change modeling and simulation is a popular tool in land use planning and policy formulation. However, the outputs of land use change simulation are not always accompanied with information on uncertainty. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the inherent uncertainty in sprawl simulation, which is attributable to error in the input parameters and to limitations in our understanding of land use systems. To reach this goal, the paper determines sprawl simulation accuracy and uncertainty for a small US metropolitan region as produced by the CLUE-S modeling framework. The model simulates sprawl location in the region accurately, but the certainty of sprawl location projections decreases with time. This uncertainty in the simulation suggests that modelers should report uncertainty with their output over all time horizons so that, on the one hand, land use planners and decision makers do not place too much confidence in any single sprawl simulation (which could lead to unwarranted and expensive urban growth management policies) and, on the other hand, do not place too little confidence in sprawl models (which could have severe socioeconomic and environmental consequences). Thus, reporting uncertainty with simulation output provides planners and decision makers with a platform for more informed land use policy.     

The design of land policy in Israel: Between law and political culture

This article deals with the Israeli land policy in light of a certain judicial decision made by the Israeli High Court of justice (HCJ). A decision known as the “Land decision” (2002). Following the concept of shared mental models I will claim that the ruling of the HCJ at the given point in time expresses societal preferences formed through a process of learning through which society develops a shared mental model of ‘alternative behavior’ that reflects the way in which individuals and groups adapt to solve the social problems they face in various contexts. This shared mental model provides a frame of reference for the actions of political players such as politicians, special interest groups as well as the Supreme Court in shaping the design and implementation of Israel’ land policy. However regarding the Israeli land decision the ability of the Supreme Court to determine policy is limited on the implementation level.     

Land consolidation in inland rural Galicia, N.W. Spain, since 1950: An example of the formulation and use of questions, criteria and indicators for evaluation of rural development policies

This paper examines whether the land consolidation (LC) practised since the 1950s in Galicia, N.W. Spain, has had the desired effects. To achieve this aim, we have adopted the methodology drawn up by the European Union for evaluation of its socioeconomic programmes, and we have adapted it as required by the subject matter and by the long-term historical perspective of this study. Our results suggest that, during the study period, LC has in general made a positive contribution to slowing rural depopulation.     

Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.