Economics of carbon sequestration in community forests: Evidence from REDD+ piloting in Nepal

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has been piloted in developing countries as a climate change mitigation strategy, providing financial incentives for carbon sequestration in forests. This paper examines the economic feasibility of REDD+ in community forests within two watersheds in central Nepal, Ludikhola and Kayarkhola, using data on forest product demand, carbon sequestration, carbon price and REDD+ related costs. The benefits of REDD+ are about $7994, $152, and $64 per community forest, per hectare of forest area, and per household in Ludikhola watershed compared to $4815, $29, and $56 in Kayarkhola watershed, respectively, under the business-as-usual scenario. Compared to the EU ETS carbon price ($10.3/tCO₂e), the average break-even carbon price in community forests is much higher in Kayarkhola watershed ($41.8/tCO₂e) and much lower in Ludikhola watershed ($2.4/tCO₂e) when empirical estimates of annual expenditure in community forests are included in the analysis. The incorporation of annual expenditure estimates and opportunity cost of sequestered carbon (in the form of firewood prices in local markets) in the analysis suggests that community forests are economically infeasible for REDD+ at the prevailing carbon prices. The implication of our findings is that economic feasibility of REDD+ in community forests depends on the local contexts, carbon prices and the opportunity costs, which should be carefully considered in designing REDD+ projects.     

Analysing foregone costs of communities and carbon benefits in small scale community based forestry practice in Nepal

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation and sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon (REDD+) are considered to be important cost effective approaches for global climate change mitigation; therefore, such practices are evolving as the REDD+ payment mechanism in developing countries. Using six years (2006–2012) data, this paper analyses trade-offs between carbon stock gains and the costs incurred by communities in generating additional carbon in 105 REDD+ pilot community forests in Nepal. It estimates foregone benefits for communities engaged in increasing carbon stocks in various dominant vegetation types. At recent carbon and commodity prices, communities receive on average US$ 0.47/ha/year of carbon benefits with the additional cost of US$ 67.30/ha/year. One dollar’s worth of community cost resulted 0.23 Mg of carbon sequestration. Therefore, carbon payment alone may not be an attractive incentive within small-scale community forestry and should link with payments for ecosystem services. Moreover, the study found highest community sacrificed benefits in Shorea mixed broadleaf forests and lowest in Schima-Castanopsis forests, while carbon benefits were highest in Pine forests followed by Schima-Castanopsis forests and lowest in Rhododendron-Quercus forests. This indicates that costs and benefits may vary by vegetation type. A policy should consider payment for other environmental services, carbon gains, co-benefits and trade off while designing the REDD+ mechanism in community based forest land use practice with equitable community outcomes. The learning from this study will help in the formulation of an appropriate REDD+ policy for community forestry.     

Estimating the opportunity costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions via avoided deforestation,using integrated assessment modelling

Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs, although cost estimates show large uncertainty. Cost estimates can differ, as they depend on the approach chosen, for example: giving an economic stimulus to entire countries, taking landowners as actors in a REDD framework, or starting from protecting carbon-rich areas. This last approach was chosen for this analysis. Proper calculation of the economic cost requires an integrated modelling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and their associated economic effects. To date, only a few global modelling studies have applied such an approach. In modelling REDD measures, the actual implementation of REDD can take many forms, with implications for the results. This study assumes that non-Annex I countries will protect carbon-rich areas against deforestation, and therefore will refrain from using these areas as agricultural land. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD were assessed using an integrated economic and land-use modelling approach comprising the global economic LEITAP model and the biophysical IMAGE model. One of the main methodological challenges is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert woodlands land into agricultural land. We endogenised the availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve, and represented the implementation of REDD policies as a reduction in the maximum amount of unmanaged land that potentially would be available for conversion to agriculture, in various regions in the world. In a series of model experiments, carbon-rich areas in non-Annex I countries were protected from deforestation. In each consecutive scenario the protected area was increased, starting off with the most carbon rich lands, worldwide systematically working down to areas with less carbon storage. The associated opportunity costs, expressed in terms of GDP reduction, were calculated with the economic LEITAP model. The resulting net reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change was calculated with the IMAGE model. From the sequence of experiments, marginal cost curves were constructed, relating carbon dioxide emission reductions to the opportunity costs. The results showed that globally a maximum of around 2.5 Gt carbon dioxide emissions could be avoided, annually. However, regional differences in opportunity costs are large and were found to range from about 0 to 3.2 USD per tonne carbon dioxide in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South America and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia. These results are comparable to other studies that have calculated these costs, in terms of both opportunity costs and the regional distribution of emissions reduction.     

Benefit distribution across scales to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) in Vietnam

At very high policy levels, efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) are considered to be innovative and cost-effective ways to make forest more valuable standing than cut. In response to climate change, international funding to support reductions in emissions needs to balance conservation and development. The Government of Vietnam is currently coordinating the design of a comprehensive benefit-distribution system, with the ambition to convert certified net emissions reductions into REDD+ revenue and distribute it to local partners in a transparent, equitable and cost-effective manner. A pilot scheme is underway in Bac Kan province. With forest cover of 56.6% and a poverty rate of 36.6%, Bac Kan is among the most heavily forested and poorest provinces of Vietnam, making it a potential site for pioneering REDD+ schemes in the country.Research questions were how to incorporate international, national and local stakeholders’ investments into any distribution scheme; and how to sustain and manage an efficient, effective and equitable funding scheme for environmental services, including REDD+ revenues. Multiple data collection and analytical methods (including participatory approaches) were used to answer both research questions. Additionally, for the second question, we employed cost-benefit, opportunity cost and economic analyses.Three key concepts formed the research frame for this paper: (1) benefit-distribution systems; (2) reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus conservation (REDD+); and (3) the broader concept of payments or rewards for ecosystem services; as well as lessons learned from existing, similar schemes.This results shows that an appropriate benefit-sharing system for REDD+ revenues can be developed in such a way that meets international regulations as well as national and sub-national circumstances, particularly for the environmental services’ providers who directly protect forests. Vietnam's payments for forest environmental services’ and integrated conservation schemes (where conservation and rural development are integrated) serve as a base for the development of a REDD+ benefit-distribution system.We discuss ways of bundling such schemes with REDD+ ‘service’ payments and income streams from forestry and agroforestry ‘goods’ to provide short-term food-security/economic return and long-term environmental benefits. This combination is expected to provide sustainable incentives, but further effort is needed in the use of participatory methods and a ‘bottom-up’ approach to provide a strong base for an effective and equitable REDD+ mechanism at landscape level.Experience drawn from Vietnam, in general, and in Bac Kan, in particular, can be replicated and directly contribute to reducing carbon emissions globally.     

Do farmers or governments make better land conservation choices? Evidence from China's Sloping Land Conversion Program

In developing countries with small holdings, targeting payments-for-environmental-services prices to site-specific environmental benefits becomes administratively impractical. Instead, governments fix price and either dictate parcel enrollment or let farmers decide, which might be expected to maximize environmental benefits and minimize opportunity costs, respectively. No paper has actually tested such hypotheses in a developing-country setting. This paper examines China's Sloping Land Conversion Program, with 32 million planting forests, using a unique dataset on 3397 parcels, including farmer-choice and government-choice parcels. Farmers consider similar criteria to local governments but weight land characteristics within the farm (not the landscape) and household characteristics.     

Learning through practice? Learning from the REDD+ demonstration project,Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership (KFCP) in Indonesia

Despite a growing recognition of the importance of social learning in governing and managing land use, the understanding and practice of learning has received limited attention from researchers. In global environmental programs and projects aimed at supporting sustainable land use in developing countries, learning is often promoted but without explicit learning goals. The focus may be on capacity building and community participation, and on testing policy tools, rather than on collaborative social learning. In this study, we looked behind the rhetoric of learning in the Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership (KFCP), a large demonstration project for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) in Indonesia. The novelty of such mechanisms, linked to international forest carbon outcomes, means that learning lessons provides a rationale for REDD+ pilot activities. We used a qualitative approach to examine the nature and type of learning that occurred in the KFCP. While the stated project aims were to support policy experimentation and apply learning, the project design was highly technical, and project decision-making did not explicitly encourage joint problem solving. Despite the project’s shortcomings, we identified that learning did occur by the end of the project in ways that were different to the initial goals. Our findings suggest that flexibility and openness in project design and implementation can enable different local actors to define shared learning agendas in ways that are meaningful for them. Designing and implementing environmental projects, and learning goals within them, should attend to the needs and aspirations of those who will have to live with their long-term consequences. Learning should be integrated into international environmental programs and projects at all levels, including for policy and funding bodies, rather than focusing on local capacity building and similar project ‘benefits’. Interviewees’ eagerness to learn suggests that building approaches to social learning into program design has the potential to yield opportunities for learning beyond REDD+ to other forms of policy experimentation and governance innovations.     

Consequences of carbon offset payments for the global forest sector

Long-term effects of policies to induce carbon storage in forests were projected with the Global Forest Products Model. Offset payments for carbon sequestered in forest biomass of $15–$50/t CO₂e applied in all countries increased CO₂ sequestration in world forests by 5–14 billion tons from 2009 to 2030. Limiting implementation to developed countries exported environmental damage from North to South, as developing countries harvested more, decreasing their stored CO₂e. Substantially more CO₂e was sequestered by allocating a given budget to all countries rather than to developed countries only. As offset payments increased wood prices relatively more than they decreased production, timber revenues generally increased. In the few countries with timber revenues losses they were more than compensated by the offset payments.     

Heterogeneous governance capabilities,reference emission levels and emissions from deforestation and degradation: A signaling model approach

Heterogeneous governance capabilities of developing countries are one of the major challenges to the effectiveness of REDD+ projects. Consequently, the effects of heterogeneous governance capability, and reference emission levels on emissions from deforestation and degradation under information asymmetry, are both theoretically and empirically analyzed by using two signaling models to interrogate the panel data during the period 2011–2015 from 13 partner developing countries involved in the UN-REDD Programme. Empirical results confirm that compensation payments based on heterogeneous governance capability can improve the incentive effectiveness of such compensation payments in REDD+ projects, thereby making developing countries more willing to reduce their emissions from deforestation and degradation. Furthermore, higher baseline targets for reducing emissions can lead to greater efforts to reduce emissions. Therefore, the heterogeneous governance capabilities of developing countries should be considered in calculating the level of compensation payment for future REDD+ projects. Instead of a uniform compensation payment for all developing countries, compensation payments should be distributed according to the heterogeneous governance capabilities of each of those developing countries.     

Alternatives to local content requirements in resource-rich countries

This paper discusses whether and to what extent resource-rich developing countries should introduce local content policies, i.e. requirements to include local inputs in petroleum extraction activities of multinational corporations. We argue that local content needs to be seen as a public expenditure question, since local content requirements increase multinational costs, and hence reduce the taxes which can be extracted from these companies. This implies that there are opportunity costs in imposing local content requirements, since the forgone taxes can be used in others ways which could potentially do more to improve development prospects. Moreover, past experiences of resource-rich developing countries suggest that local content policies can exacerbate key problems of patronage and rent-seeking which resource rents generate, increasing the chance that the resource wealth will prevent rather than help development. These arguments suggest that an optimal local content policy in the context of flawed institutions is a more limited one than those typically pursued by developing countries with recently discovered petroleum reserves. Using qualitative data from Tanzania, a country with recent discoveries of substantial natural gas deposits, we analyze why local content tends to become such a central issue in debates and policy processes, despite its potentially problematic aspects.     

REDD+ and the agriculture frontier: Understanding colonists’ utilization of the land

Given the importance of the agricultural frontier as an engine of deforestation, this paper focuses on how colonists (from the Spanish word for “colonists” that is used to describe migrants to the agricultural frontier), who are important and largely overlooked stakeholders, perceive the new climate mitigation mechanism known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+). We aimed (1) to document colonists’ land use, perceptions, needs, and aspirations and (2) to understand if and how they could be taken into account under REDD+ policies. The study, including multiple data collection techniques (e.g., focus group, interviews, and participatory activities), was conducted in eastern Panama. Three areas that were adjacent to the Province of Darien border were chosen because of their similar forested landscapes and varying accessibility to a main road. Our results suggest that land use preferences, culture, forest scarcity and dependency, inequalities (e.g., land use, amount of forest, and land area), and lack of technical capacities are key elements to be considered when developing a REDD+ strategy with colonist communities. We propose that halting deforestation without both considering local communities’ perceptions and giving effective alternatives could seriously undermine livelihoods.     

The evolution of forest producer associations and their current role in REDD+: case studies from Quintana Roo,Mexico

Forest associations (secondary-level institutions that support and represent groups of forest producer communities) play an important and understudied role in promoting community forestry in a multi-level forest governance context in many countries. This role continually evolves to meet new demands from their constituents, with associations diversifying into activities that bring new governance issues, interests, organizational logics and capacity needs. As community forestry in many countries is being integrated into REDD+ national strategies, questions arise regarding new roles for these associations. Through a case study of two forest associations in Quintana Roo, Mexico, this study traces the history and evolution of these associations as they react and adapt to a changing forest sector, uses forest stakeholders’ opinions to assess the associations’ current status and perceived importance of their involvement in the forest sector, and examines how current opinions and historical legacy have shaped their role in REDD+ in Mexico. Results show that association members and outsiders (mostly government stakeholders) hold divergent views of the utility of these organizations. Outsiders’ negative perceptions, as well as the niche that the associations are currently in, is largely determining their limited participation in REDD+ consultation and implementation to date. This is a missed opportunity to engage important allies who still hold high legitimacy in the eyes of the communities that will be the ultimate implementers of REDD+.     

气候变化和林业:REDD入门

在如何应对气候变化的讨论中,最有争议的问题之一是REDD(减少毁坏和林地退化造成的碳排放)。在基于市场减排战略中的作用,分析审查REDD活动的成本表明,REDD不但在减少GHG排放的全球战略中发挥重要作用,还可以保护热带雨林提供生物多样性和重要生态系统服务。但是REDD项目限于在一定地域,除非全球森林都被纳入REDD,否则漏洞无法消除,此外,REDD在政策设计问题上存在一定争议,因此还需进一步的研究讨论。     

Solar-powered cold-storage and agrifood market modernization in Nigeria

Modern cooling technologies that utilize renewable energy sources have been increasingly recognized as promising tools to address various challenges emerging in progressively complex agrifood systems in developing countries. Knowledge gaps about the actual impacts of these technologies in developing countries remain, especially in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). This study fills this knowledge gap by providing evidence from the evaluation of recent interventions in northeast Nigeria in which seven small solar-powered cold storages were installed across seven horticulture markets. Combinations of difference-in-difference (DID) and variants of propensity-score-based methods suggest that cold storage significantly increased horticulture sales volumes and revenues of market agents. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that increased net revenues for market agents may be sufficiently large to recoup cold storage investments and operating costs within a reasonable time frame. Using cold storage also reduced the share of food loss. It lengthened the products' shelf-life while raising prices received by market agents and farmers, which were associated with improved product quality, expanded value-adding activities by market agents, and increased use of advance payments.     

Landowners’ conservation motives and the size of information rents in environmental bidding systems

We examine landowners’ conservation motives, conservation costs and information rents in environmental bidding systems designed for forestry with the help of Faustmann and Hartman models and data from Finnish conservation program. We show that the Faustmann landowners receive information rents, on average 55% of the rental payments. For the Hartman landowners the high conservation costs of old stands result in low information rents; they are only 13% of the rental payments. This estimate omits amenity benefits the landowners derive from their forests; accounting for these benefits would increase information rents dramatically. Despite the high information rents, landowners’ conservation motives decrease the rental payment required for participation in the conservation program. Hence, landowners’ conservation motives give governments a great opportunity to allocate conservation contracts in a more cost effective way, thereby extracting larger benefits for scarce conservation funds.     

Support for regulatory and voluntary approaches to wildfire adaptation among unincorporated wildland-urban interface communities

Regulation of building standards and residential development practices in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) is increasingly advocated as a possible avenue for wildfire risk reduction. However, many documented instances of successful wildfire adaptation occur in incorporated communities with local governments or formalized structures for channeling such efforts. Less research has explored whether regulatory approaches might be a viable option for adaptation in unincorporated communities without local governments, particularly from the perspective of community members and local professionals. The research presented here attempts to understand strategies, programs or incentives that local residents think would best advance fire adaptation in their communities given local social context, with a focus on both regulatory and voluntary approaches. Data presented come from focus groups of residents and professionals in Story, Wyoming, and Timber Lakes, Utah. Participants in both communities displayed low support for regulatory approaches due to distrust in local, state, or federal governments, preferring instead to conduct wildfire risk reduction activities on a voluntary basis. Each population was willing to consider regulatory approaches only if associated standards or policies were specifically tailored to their community, channeled through a trusted organizing body and organized by community leaders. Residents were interested in regulatory efforts that allowed community members the opportunity to act at the local level, govern efforts themselves, and produce tangible benefits for their community. We discuss implications for identifying appropriate voluntary and regulatory wildfire risk reduction approaches in unincorporated or rural communities and provide suggestions for encouraging collective action in similar local contexts.     

Learning from the other: Benefit sharing lessons for REDD+ implementation based on CBFM experience in Northern Tanzania

A key challenge facing interventions in forestry sector is how to ensure that benefit-sharing arrangements meet the needs and aspirations of poor rural people. In particular, as interest and effort builds around REDD+, it is important to remember that it, and any other intervention, are likely to be shaped by the history of Tanzania’s forestry sector, especially community based forest management. This paper examines benefit lessons for REDD+ from a well-known Tanzanian Forest Reserve which has begun to participate in selling carbon. The example is particularly important as it is one of the oldest cases of village-based forest management in the country. To explore this case a total of 101 households from two reserve-adjacent villages were randomly interviewed along with key informant interviews, transect walks, participant observation, and focus group discussions. Findings of the study revealed that majority of respondents felt benefits are concentrated on an elite due to weak governance mechanisms. We argue that local governance and central oversight will enhance good benefit sharing under REDD+ and future interventions in the forest sector.     

Territorialising REDD+: Conflicts over market-based forest conservation in Lindi,Tanzania

In this paper we use the lens of political ecology to shed light on the causes and effects of pro-poor REDD+ induced land use conflicts. We build our study on recent theoretical work on territorialisation in nature conservation to analyse the conflicts and outcomes of the TFCG/Mjumita REDD+ project in Lindi, Tanzania. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork in two case study villages we argue that conservation organisations increasingly make use of participatory tools, FPIC procedures and good governance principles to include local populations in the creation of what we call market-based conservation territories (MBCT). In contrast to project developer’s claims of win–win benefits, we highlight the mixed outcomes of MBCTs and argue that their performance-driven nature and reliance on formal governance arrangements lead to the enclosure of common forests. This inevitably causes conflicts between and within villages over the meaning, ownership and access to forest resources, especially given the importance of customary relations in tropical rural contexts. We argue that despite the extensive community engagement strategy and genuine pro-poor approach of the REDD+ project, project proponents were unable to prevent land use conflicts and risks of economic and physical displacement. The specific social, economic and political conditions shaped the implementation of the project which led to negative consequences to some stakeholders despite genuinely noble intentions. Therefore, we argue that in order to achieve more positive results when creating MBCT, project developers must better acknowledge the inherent trade-offs of markets in conservation and take the limitations and realities of local governance context better into account. We suggest a more explicit assessment of social and environmental justice in the project and more context-specific efforts to prevent social harm from conservation. Theoretically, our study contributes to a better understanding of territorialisation processes under the current trend of market-based conservation.     

Price or politics? An investigation of the causes of expropriation*

Expropriations of foreign direct investment in developing countries are typically blamed on political and economic crises in those countries. Developing a new database of expropriations in the minerals sectors of developing country exporters, I show that expropriations were correlated with mineral price booms and that democratic governments were more likely to expropriate. No link is found between expropriations and political or economic crises, except at independence. A better explanation of expropriation would be opportunistic behaviour by host governments when profits of investments are high. In two developed countries, Australia and Canada, expropri‐ations are also found to occur during price booms.     

重点生态区位商品林生态补偿利益相关者演化博弈研究

根据演化博弈理论,构建动态演化博弈模型,探讨重点生态区位商品林生态补偿过程中各利益主体在有限理性条件下的利益驱动、决策行为和依据以及主体间交互作用下的演化稳定策略,分析在不同情境下影响林农和地方政府演化博弈均衡的因素。研究结果表明:两大博弈主体的策略选择和策略演化方向依赖于初始状态及其演化路径,并与博弈矩阵的参数有关;地方政府的行为决策直接影响生态补偿项目的可持续性;作为项目的直接实施主体,林农的积极性与响应度直接影响生态补偿项目的实施效果。因此,应该建立健全生态补偿,完善生态环境保护激励机制,构建政府主导、林农参与的环境保护工作机制。     

An open-access method for targeting revegetation based on potential for emissions reduction,carbon sequestration and opportunity cost

We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO₂-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.