国际信用评级体系改革进程及我国评级业发展展望

信用评级是解决金融市场信息不对称问题的重要途径之一,其在资本市场特别是债券市场运行中起着风险揭示、市场定价、防范信用风险等重要作用。长期以来,国际信用评级领域形成了以美国三大评级机构为主体的寡头垄断格局。本次国际金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,凸显出现行国际信用评级体系存在的种种弊端。本文分析了现行国际信用评级体系所存在的缺陷,探讨了国际社会及我国政府为进一步完善国际信用评级体系所采取的措施、信用评级对我国商业银行的重要作用及应对建议。     

美国评级业监管发展动向及述评

在过去近百年的时间里,美国的资信评级业扩张明显,在资本市场的作用日益重要,评级业的监管也日益完善。本文回顾了美国评级业的监管历史,对2006年新发布的资信评级机构改革法案进行了介绍,并总结和评论了美国证监会2007年发布的“注册为全国认可统计评级组织的评级机构监管”规则提案征求意见稿的相关内容,以期为我国的评级业发展提供借鉴。     

欧盟信用评级机构最新监管草案研究及启示

2008年金融危机后,欧盟委员会正式启动欧盟信用评级机构监管立法工作,于2009年出台《欧盟信用评级机构监管法规》(Regulation No1060/2009),经过多次修订并引入新制度补充完善,欧盟信用评级监管框架趋于健全、规范。我国可以借鉴欧盟最新评级机构监管法规及监管实施思路,尽快完善信用评级监管法规体系,推行内外部评级双轨运行模式,同时从评级机构内部风险控制、信息披露等入手,统一规范执业标准,推动我国信用评级行业稳步健康发展。     

基于主体信用评级的中国社会信用体系建设--兼论中国信用评级业的发展战略

中国的社会信用体系建设已经取得了阶段性成果。但是,由于中国的主体信用评级体系尚未建立起来,使得社会信用体系尚处于不完善阶段,信用评级行业也在扭曲的状态下蹒跚前行。鉴于此,需要通过推动主体信用评级,夯实中国社会信用体系的基础,确立信用评级在社会信用体系中的核心地位,推动中国经济和金融的进一步国际化、全球化,加速中国信用评级行业的国际化进程,缓减国内外金融交易主体之间的信息不对称,缓减金融产品与投资者的信息不对称,提高中国经济、金融国际化的安全程度。     

The Effect of Solicitation and Independence on Corporate Bond Ratings

Abstract:   This comparison of solicited and independent bond rating agencies performance reveals that the ratings assigned by Moody's and Standard & Poor's are consistently lower than those assigned by Duff and Phelps and Fitch IBCA and are consistently higher than those assigned by MCM. While Moody's and S&P generally downgrade bond ratings sooner than Duff and Phelps and Fitch IBCA, the four major agencies upgrade at the same time. Moody's tends to have a higher upgrade magnitude than Duff and Phelps, but the downgrade magnitudes do not differ. MCM upgrades its ratings more quickly than either Moody's or S&P. The results give support to the timeliness and accuracy of ratings provided by the independent agencies.     

构建农村信用社农户信用评级体系初探

建立十个农户信用等级分析指标，每个指标划分5个档次，通过专家打分方式，用算术平均数计算出农户每个指标的得分，最后综合计算出农户的信用得分，以确定农户等级。该方法不仅可以得出农户的综合信用等级，而且可以清楚明了地看到农户每一个指标的得分情况，为信用社作出科学、合理的信贷决策提供了重要的参考。     

Ratings Competition in the CMBS Market

We consider the relationship between competition among credit rating agencies and the ratings of commercial mortgage‐backed securities (CMBS) using data from 2002 to 2007. We characterize competition using Fitch's aggregate share of CMBS ratings and a measure of Fitch's deal‐specific market share constructed as the probability of Fitch being hired for a specific transaction. Controlling for deal characteristics, we find that subordination levels were lower when Fitch's aggregate and deal‐specific market shares were higher, which suggests that ratings competition yielded less stringent ratings when Fitch was a more significant competitor, although this effect dissipates when Fitch's market shares were high.     

Tightening credit standards: the role of accounting quality

Over the latest 20 years, the average credit rating of U.S. corporations has trended down. Blume et al. (1998, Journal of Finance, 53, 1389–1413.) attribute this trend to a tightening of credit standards by agencies. We reexamine the observed decreases in credit ratings in several ways. First, we show that this downward trend does not apply to speculative-grade issuers. Second, our analysis of investment-grade issuers suggests that the apparent tightening of standards can be attributed primarily to changes in accounting quality over time. After incorporating changing accounting quality, we find no evidence that rating agencies have tightened their credit standards.

Ratings quality over the business cycle

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) have long held that reputational concerns discipline their behavior. The value of reputation, however, depends on economic fundamentals that vary over the business cycle. In a model of ratings incorporating endogenous reputation and a market environment that varies, we find that ratings quality is countercyclical. Specifically, a CRA is more likely to issue less-accurate ratings when fee-income is high, competition in the labor market for analysts is tough, and securities' default probabilities are low. Persistence in economic conditions can diminish our results, while mean reversion exacerbates them. The presence of naive investors reduces overall quality, but quality remains countercyclical. Finally, we demonstrate that competition among CRAs yields similar results.     

基于市场定价测算信用评级指标权重

一般而言,投资者会参考一系列指标来综合评估企业债券的信用水平,合理设定这些指标的权重是相对准确地衡量债券信用水平的关键。文章基于有效市场假定,在分类梳理备选信用指标的基础上,将由加权信用指标计算的债券信用估值差异与债券实际收益率差异进行拟合,以此确定最优的信用指标权重组合,以期为简要分析企业信用资质和债券定价判断提供一个参考。     

信用评级行业竞争和规制:美国的经验和启示

美国信用评级行业高度集中,标普、穆迪是评级市场的统治者。美国证券交易委员会对国家认可的统计评级机构(NRSROs)的指定以及基于监管目的广泛使用NRSROs概念导致评级行业的准入壁垒。声誉资本、网络效应以及评级透明也是影响信用评级行业竞争状况的因素。为了增进评级行业竞争,美国已经加强对信用评级机构的法律监管,并正在酝酿新一轮的竞争规制措施和改革方案。美国的经验和做法对于我国刚刚起步的信用评级行业的发展具有借鉴意义。     

国际商业票据市场的发展与借鉴

发行商业票据已经成为很多公司短期资金的重要来源.本文回顾了国际商业票据市场的发展,对票据市场的风险及防范进行了总结,在此基础上结合我国票据市场的发展实际,提出应通过加强资信评级、商业银行积极参与、监管不断完善等措施,来推进我国商业票据市场的健康发展.     

我国大数据征信行业的发展现状、问题与对策

近年来,我国大数据征信广泛应用于反欺诈策略、信用评估、授信策略与风险定价、贷后管理等领域。针对我国现有征信模式存在的问题,提出明确信息采集范围、加快行业整合、推进应用场景多元化、提升个人信用意识等相应对策。     

中国信用担保机构的信用风险分析

信用担保机构对于解决中小企业融资难问题发挥了重要的作用,但其本身的信用风险越来越大,如何评估担保机构的信用风险以及如何降低担保机构的信用风险是摆在监管层的一个非常现实的问题.通过对全国39家信用担保机构的信用评级,我们发现,民营担保机构的信用级别普遍较低,资本金越大则担保机构的信用级别越高,担保余额越小则信用级别越低等特点.为了降低担保机构的信用风险,担保机构要加强内部风险管理意识和水平;相关的政府要加强监管,建立行业准入制度和从业人员的资格考核制度.