腐败与经济增长的关系实证研究——基于多国面板数据的分析

本文利用多国面板数据实证研究了腐败与经济增长的关系,得出以下结论:一是对于发达国家,腐败不利于经济增长;二是对于发展中国家,一开始腐败对经济增长是有促进作用的,但腐败与经济增长之间是一种倒U型的关系,腐败对经济增长的促进作用只是暂时的;三是对于我国,改革开放的深入,市场体制的完善,政府管制的减少,腐败的负面影响已经超过了正面影响,目前处于倒U型的右半部分,即腐败不利于我国经济增长。最后,本文给出了治理我国腐败的对策建议。     

Is corruption grease,grit or a gamble? Corruption increases variance of productivity across countries

The effect of corruption on economic growth has attracted interest in empirical development economics. The conventional view of corruption as impediment for growth has been challenged by the ‘grease-on-the-wheels’ hypothesis. We take a new perspective on the issue and suggest corruption as macro risk, referred to as a ‘gamble’ hypothesis. Using cross-country data and two alternative indicators of corruption, we find corruption to be a significant driver of heteroscedasticity in total productivity. This supports the new gamble hypothesis. We also note some misleading interpretations in the previously published frontier applications. To avoid these shortcomings, we apply a flexible semi-nonparametric estimator.     

Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?

This article assesses the heterogeneous effects of immigration on economic growth depending on both the origin and the destination countries. Following the development of a growth model augmented by human capital of immigrants, we estimate it in a dynamic panel setup using the system-GMM estimator. We find that the growth-enhancing effect of immigration is significantly larger when immigration flows from developed to developing economies than when it does to those that include both developed and developing economies. We interpret these results as evidence of immigrants from developed countries bringing with them their advanced knowledge into the developing countries.     

How does economic transition breed corruption?

Based on the existing literature, this paper discusses the relationship between economic transition and corruption, and argues that economic transition is one of the main roots of the spread of corruption in transitional China. It divides economic transition into four parts, and examines various channels by which economic transition breeds corruption opportunities. By applying the case statistical analysis method to analyze 594 major corruption cases, it finds the most corruption-prone areas, and provides some empirical evidence on the existence of such channels.     

浅析转型中的中国经济

从中国目前的经济成就和问题谈起,运用包容性增长和科学发展观的理念和方法来对中国经济发展转型进行考察,并得出与保障中国经济平稳、快速发展相配套的必要措施。     

Why is Corruption Tolerated?

It is maintained that a closer analysis of the features of the underlying contract reveals that under many circumstances corruption is in fact a rational and understandable reaction to institutional failures, which are often far from accidental. Sometimes it can even be considered legitimate, when instrumental in achieving goals shared by the vast majority of the electorate.To this purpose, three different stylized institutional frameworks are analyzed: developed, totalitarian and transition countries. The origin, scope and consequences of corruption vary significantly across the different frameworks. The normative conclusions should therefore be adjusted accordingly.     

Institutions and the financial development–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a sample splitting approach that does not impose an exogenous quadratic term, we examine the effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa by allowing the link to be mediated by the level of institutions. Our findings reveal a disproportionate growth-enhancing effect of finance, given countries’ distinct level of institutional quality. More specifically, when the International Country Risk Guide-based measure of institutions is used as the threshold variable, below the optimal level of institutional quality, financial development does not significantly promote economic growth. For countries with institutional quality above the threshold, higher finance is associated with growth. However, when institutions are measured by World Governance Indicators proxy, we find a significant effect of financial development, irrespective of whether a country is below or above the threshold. Interestingly, the growth-enhancing effect of finance is greater for low-institution countries relative to high-institution countries. Thus, through its ability to provide some crucial roles, the well-developed financial sector may also perform the function of sound institutions in influencing economic growth.     

农村信用社与农村经济增长关系的实证分析

对农村信用社与农村经济增长之间关系的实证研究表明,农村信用社的发展对农村经济持续增长具有极大的促进作用.针对农村信用社发展中面临的问题,应进一步改革农信社的股权结构、强化农信社的退出机制、有效协调对农信社的监管等,以促进农信社的健康发展.     

The Limitations of Karl Marx' Social Economics ∗

Studies of the relationship between political democracy and economic inequality have produced diverse findings. This study attempts to mitigate some conceptual and methodological problems inherent in such studies by using multi-indicator concepts of inclusive democracy and economic inequality. Data from the five major historically and culturally homogeneous South Asian countries covering 1980–2003 suggest some bidirectional, positive relationship between inclusive democracy and economic inequality indicating that democracy and equality may not be fully compatible in this region. The paper offers contextual explanations and some mechanisms that may have led to these findings for the region, somewhat deviating from the conventional arguments.     

Environmental performance,corruption and economic growth: global evidence using a new data set

This study investigates the relationship between environmental performance, corruption and economic growth using panel data of 87 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2012. The Environmental Performance Index is used for the first time to evaluate the environmental quality on economic growth. By employing both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’ panel models, we find that environmental performance is positively related to economic growth and is more significant in non-Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) countries. Moreover, when corruption is incorporated, the empirical estimation results indicate that although lower corruption helps economic growth in non-OECD countries, the negative coefficients of the three interactive terms show that the positive effect of environment performance on economic growth will drop, while greater environmental performance combined with natural resource abundance inevitably leads to inefficient bureaucracies and hence disadvantageous economic growth. As a result, policymakers in non-OECD countries should carefully ensure better government quality when they exhibit strong environmental performance so as to avoid any disadvantageous impact upon economic growth.     

民营企业准入国防工业的制度选择与博弈

市场准入制度是政府管理市场、干预经济的制度安排。目前,国家虽然已对民营企业开放了国防工业领域,但民营企业进入国防科技工业领域还面临着很多困难和问题。文章从制度变迁层面探讨了民营企业准入国防工业的制度障碍,并基于利益角度分析了民营企业与国有国防工业企业的博弈关系。在此基础上,给出了民营企业准入国防工业的相关政策建议。     

The Productivity of US States since 1880

This study uses state-level variation in labor productivity levels at twenty-year intervals between 1880 and 1980 to examine the relative importance of institutional and geographical influences in explaining observed and persistent differences in standards of living over time and across regions. Focusing on fundamental rather than proximate influences, we find that both institutional characteristics and some physical geography characteristics account for a high proportion of the differences in state productivity levels: states with navigable waterways, a large minerals endowment, and no slaves in 1860, on average, had higher labor productivity levels throughout the sample period. However, we find little support for two other influences that have previously received attention—climate and latitude.     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.     

Do Institutions Cause Growth?

We revisit the debate over whether political institutions cause economic growth, or whether, alternatively, growth and human capital accumulation lead to institutional improvement. We find that most indicators of institutional quality used to establish the proposition that institutions cause growth are constructed to be conceptually unsuitable for that purpose. We also find that some of the instrumental variable techniques used in the literature are flawed. Basic OLS results, as well as a variety of additional evidence, suggest that (a) human capital is a more basic source of growth than are the institutions, (b) poor countries get out of poverty through good policies, often pursued by dictators, and (c) subsequently improve their political institutions.     

Access to Preferential Loans for Poverty Reduction and Rural Development: Evidence from Vietnam

Preferential loans play an important role in the process of reducing poverty in developing countries. Considering the data set from the 2010 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey, we aim to examine the influential factors in probability of households getting access to preferential loans. Additionally, we analyze the determinants of household income in association with the loans by applying a quantile regression model. Our results show that ethnicity-related factors have the largest marginal effect on the access to preferential loans. The results from the quantile regression model demonstrate that the debt factor has a deeper impact on the borrowing group at the lower quantiles of household income.