刍议国际贸易中的贸易报复

20世纪 90年代后,随着经济全球化的发展,国际贸易领域中的争端和冲突日益增多,许多国家为了维护自己的经济利益,开始越来越多地采取贸易报复。目前,贸易报复已成为制约国际贸易发展的重要障碍之一,而要减少各国之间的贸易报复,首先需要真正地认识贸易报复。     

国际贸易理论的演进逻辑:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果

国际贸易理论历经古典贸易理论、新古典贸易理论、新贸易理论、新兴古典贸易理论和新新贸易理论五个阶段,主要回答三个基本问题:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果。依据不同的假设,贸易理论对影响贸易的边界条件的解释各不相同,对贸易动因解释也不相同;贸易结构从行业间贸易、行业内贸易发展为企业间贸易,国际贸易正在向全球化下的企业分工演变;贸易结果是国际贸易得以持续展开的效果,生产力提升是最终的结果。基于三个基本问题,比较各种国际贸易理论,揭示各种国际贸易理论的局限性,并做出评价。     

贸易自由化与中性贸易体制

贸易体制中性化是贸易自由化的内在要求，但是，中性化并不等于自由化，贸易自由化必须包括贸易体制中性化和减少贸易干预两个方面。贸易自由化的实质是建立有效的市场经济机制，减少对贸易的行政干预是贸易自由化成功与否的关键所在。     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement: Evaluating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

The present study attempts to provide insight into the trade creation and trade diversion effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in goods, which came into force in 2010. The paper applies a theoretically consistent gravity model and uses empirically robust procedures such as ordinary least squares and pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood in order to analyze the ex post effects of the agreement at an aggregate level. The results reveal that standard gravity variables are statistically significant and report expected signs, yet a reduction in export flows has been observed following the implementation of the free trade agreement, giving rise to pure trade diversion effects.     

Do Trade Agreements Increase Food Trade?

In addition to multilateral trade agreements under the World Trade Organization (WTO), the world has seen a remarkable proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the last two decades. This study investigates whether these multilateral and regional trade institutions increase food trade and bring the world into a freer flow of food. The gravity model of international trade is used for the empirical analysis. The model is developed in a large panel data setting and attempted to address some potential problems in the estimations including multilateral trade resistances, zero trade values and endogeneity. The results suggest that both the WTO and RTAs have delivered significant positive effects on trade among the participant countries, but not food. Only RTAs are found to have increased food trade among the participant countries. However, although on average the WTO is found to have negative implications on food trade, it facilitates the developing countries more than the developed countries.     

客户做什么生意，我们就做什么生意

要帮助客户做生意，自己应该成为一个合格的生意人，这样才能引起客户的共鸣和重视，赢得客户的尊重。[编者按]     

Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements

In a seminal article, Rose (2004) found that the assumed positive impact of the WTO on international trade was questionable. This finding has been scrutinised and modified in subsequent research, using different data sets, econometric methods and separating the WTO from other forms of trade agreements. A key characteristic of the subsequent literature is the rather simplistic way in which trade agreements are treated whereby all trade agreements are lumped together. Trade agreements come, however, in many different forms and shapes. This study addresses these differences in trade agreements. Using a unique database of 296 trade agreements, we distinguish 17 trade‐related policy domains and indicate whether the agreements contain legally enforceable commitments. This extensive and novel taxonomy of trade agreements enables us to allow for the possible heterogeneity of the impact of trade agreements on international trade. Using a gravity model, we find that trade agreement heterogeneity indeed matters for international trade and that countries experience significant trade increases due to comprehensive trade agreements even if not all participants are in the WTO.     

从贸易逆差看我国外贸平衡

某种意义上,出现逆差在一定程度上可以被看作是对人民币低估论调的有力回击。不过,对我国这样的对外开放进程尚处于正在进行时的国家来说,如果贸易逆差规模过大,也是一件很麻烦的事情。     

Growth and Trade vs. Trade and Growth

In the traditional trade literature, there is a well-developed area analyzing the effect of growth on trade and its reflection on income growth. This literature developed already in the 1950s and 1960s. Generally speaking, an interest in the effects of trade on growth has also existed for many years, where trade has often been viewed as an engine of growth. Cases in point are the "East Asian Tigers" and Japan which have especially benefited from outward-looking policies. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between economic growth and growth in income terms of trade, arguing that income terms of trade is a useful concept in analyses of the link between trade and growth. Our results suggest that fast-growing countries have either specialized in sectors with a relatively favorable development with regard to world market prices, or they have managed to successively improve quality within sectors, thereby avoiding falling terms of trade in spite of large increases in export volumes.     

服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡分析

在不考虑其它影响美中贸易的因素情形下,本文深入地研究了服务贸易与美中贸易再平衡之间的关系。研究表明服务贸易在平衡美中贸易失衡中扮演着越来越重要的角色,是缓解美中贸易失衡的有效工具。美中服务贸易顺差抵消美中货物贸易逆差的作用在将来较长一段时期内仍会持续下去,而且抵消幅度可能会越来越大,这对美中贸易逆差的缩小将产生巨大的影响,美中贸易失衡格局将难以为继。     

美国对外贸易及其政策的变化

美国虽然不是一个外向型经济的国家,但鉴于它的进出口贸易在国际贸易总额中所占的份额和在美国经济中日益重要的作用,美国的对外贸易政策自二战以来就开始具有世界性的影响。美国的对外贸易政策也因此长期受到各方的关注。从大范围来看,在立国200多年的历史中,美国的对外贸易政策大致经历过三个阶段的变化。     

服务贸易与商品贸易的互补性及贸易平衡新解

国际分工的演进导致贸易比较优势出现新的变化，贸易模式也更加复杂。在国际贸易新格局下，贸易平衡表现为服务贸易和商品贸易互补下的总体平衡。随着国际分工的日趋深入，贸易失衡也将主要表现为服务贸易和商品贸易之间的结构性失衡。这与两者自由化进程的不对称密切相关。国际分工与贸易的新视野对于理解贸易平衡、解决贸易失衡具有启发意义。     

外高桥保税区专业贸易服务平台的建设情况

从国际贸易中心建设的实践来看,贸易便利化、服务专业化水平的提高,是推动贸易主体和总量的集聚,进而促进国际贸易中心建设的必要条件和重要内容。专业贸易服务平台的建设目的,就是在上海加快建设国际贸易中心、外高桥保税区打造国际贸易示范区的背景下,在发挥保税区现有进口贸易优势以及集聚近7000家客户的基础上,针对某些具有比较优势和发展潜力的重点行业,研究运作模式,推进具有行业特点的贸易便利化措施;深入产业服务链研究,提升个性化的专业服务能力,以进一步提高保税区国际贸易便利化水平,优化保税区投资、运作环境,更好地服务于国际贸易产业。