石油新秩序来了

10月31日,国家发改委正式发出通知,国内汽、柴油分别下调245元／吨和235元／吨。成品油价再一次刷新纪录,创出七连跌,上海成品油价格也重回“6字头”时代。截至10月31日,国际基准油价布伦特原油（布油）价格已连续六周收跌,创2002年以来最长连跌期,而这个纪录还有可能被刷新。     

2006年2月上海期货交易所市场综述

2月，国际期铜市场在中国春节休市期间强劲上扬，LME三个月期铜价格突破5000美元／吨的纪录新高点。之后由于贵金属和石油价格下跌、铜库存连续增加等因素，铜市急剧下挫。上海铜市跟随国际市场高位剧烈震荡，主力0605合约波动区间为44260—48780元／吨，月底收报44740元，较上月跌600元；其他主要合约涨跌幅在-1110-＋950元之间。     

上海期货交易所2005年2月市场综述

2月，适逢中国春节长假，国际期铜市场交易总体较为清淡，价格在经历短暂下探后稳步向历史高位攀升，之后交易者对价格走势心存谨慎，而基金获利抛盘也在逐步打压期铜价格。上海铜市呈现高位震荡走势，但主要是被动跟随伦铜上涨。主力0504合约当月波动区间为28820～31650元／吨，月底收报31500元／吨，较上月涨2030元。除铜0502下跌530元，其它主要合约月涨幅在550～2200元不等。     

“一免两补”政策实施后农民仍有五盼

一盼农资价格不要涨。2004年以来，农资价格一涨再涨，国产尿素年初卖69元/公斤，5月份卖77元，6月份卖85元，而到了7月份就卖到95元，碳铵、复合肥等肥料的价格也随着尿素价格而上涨。因此，种地成本不断增加。另外，我国北方尤其是东北地区春旱年年都较为严重，打井喷灌设备年年增加，由于汽油、柴油价格不断上涨，农民又增加了一块种地成本。难怪农民说“柴油机一转就得‘喝’油，粮补的钱都让这柴油机‘喝’的差不多了”。     

公司动态

3月29日中石油在港交所公布去年度业绩,净利润为1,329．61亿元人民币,下跌5％,派末期股息每股0．16462元。营业额上升主要是因为原油、天然气、汽油、柴油等主要产品价格上升和销售量增加。净利润下滑则是受到国内成品油价格宏观调控、进口天然气进销价格倒挂以及税费增幅较大等因素影响。     

郑糖“僵尸”习性终成过往

从年初传闻国家收储到公告通知以6550元／吨的价格收储，郑糖经历了一波较为强势的单边上涨行情，其中今年1月份涨幅达10．1％，为历史同期最高涨幅。然而，收储消息得以证实后，郑糖在2月中下旬开始持续维持在6550-6720元／吨区间震荡运行，往昔“妖性”全都收敛，“僵尸”习性持续一个多月，却无转变迹象。难道郑糖“妖性”已被“僵尸”习性侵蚀殆尽？     

棉价坠落

棉价在经历了2010年疯狂上涨之后,市场已经做好了它调整的准备,只是很少有人想到棉价下跌得如此惨烈：2011年前3个月,国内棉花价格还在上涨途中,3月份一举突破3万元／吨大关,创下35000元／吨的历史新高;4月份以后,形势急转直下,连续三个月下跌,棉价跳水35％以上。现在,20000元／吨的价格已近在眼前。“上半年棉花价格走势呈倒‘V’字型,主要是受棉花供需基本面和宏观经济形势主导。”期货业内人士宋健说。     

上海期货交易所2003年11月市场综述

11月，基本金属继续在全球经济逐步改善的预期中受益，而美国经济数据也支持该预期，但随后，园中美贸易争端日趋加剧，伊斯坦布尔发生两起严重的爆炸事件令国际铜价受到打压，井扩大跌幅。11月LME三月铜月朱报收2019美元。LME三月铝月末报收1520美无。受国际市场影响，上海金属市场11月也有相应表现，其中最活跃的期铜0406合约月末收报21150元．较上月跌650元，波动区间19900～22600元／吨，其它合约涨跌幅在-730-810元之间。上海期铝最活跃的0403合约月末收报15640元，较10月下跌130元，波动区间14850-16260元／吨，其它合约涨跌幅均在-120-490元之间。     

水价定位 谁来裁判

在“水价和成本倒挂”的理由之下，宁波水价终于“顺理成章”地涨价了。据报道，宁波居民用水价格将分两步上调：自2009年12月1日起，该市水价正式调整为每立方米2．75元；而到2010年7月1日，水价将最终调整至320元，整体涨幅达45．45％。     

剩余法在一级市场海域价格评估结论“倒挂”问题探讨

剩余法不仅是房地产和土地估价的一种方法，也是海域价格评估采用的方法之一。相对于陆域的自然条件和评估环境，海域更为复杂且其评估实践较短，使剩余法在海域估价中存在一些需要探讨和解决的问题，本文就其在一级市场海域价格评估的结论“倒挂”问题进行探讨。通过相关文献梳理，在对剩余法在海域价格评估结论“倒挂”的三种评估公式及情形分析的基础上，分别从开发海域不同用途对开发后总价、开发成本、利润是否包含海域使用金，以及地方政府审核开发成本是否包含基础配套费等对其在一级海域价格评估结论“倒挂”的影响进行分析和讨论，并提出几点对策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…