对中国通货膨胀的思考

通货膨胀是指流通中货币量超过实际需要量所引起的货币贬值、物价上涨的经济现象。目前，世界各国衡量通货膨胀程度的主要指标是消费价格指数CPI。物价总指数年平均递增率在2％-3％时，叫做基本稳定；物价总指数年平均递增率在9％以内，称为温和性通货膨胀；物价总指数年平均递增在10％以上，称为恶性通货膨胀。 国家统计局今日发布8月份居民消费价格变动情况显示。2011年8月份，全国居民消费价格总水平CPI同比上涨6．2％。     

我国物价上涨的现状分析

一、前言物价是市场经济最基本的经济变量,又是宏观调控的主要目标。物价水平是判断通货紧缩和通货膨胀的标准尺度,也是衡量宏观经济是否过热的“晴雨表”。社会总供给和总需求的变化、货币政策的作用与效果、人们生活水平状况、经济发展的基本走势等最终都会反映在物价水平上。因此,可以说,价格是市场经济的灵魂,是社会稳定的基础。通常意义上的物价上涨是指物价总水平的上涨,而不是指个别物品价格的上涨。     

通货膨胀压力的测算方法及其与物价变动的关系

<正> 本文将根据通货膨胀压力与通货膨胀之间的关系,提出一种测算通货膨胀压力的计量经济学方法,进而测算出改革以来我国历年的通货膨胀压力。同时,这也是一种预测物价总水平的理想模型,将可以有效地提高对物价总水平的预测精度。 (一)正常货币流通速度与通货膨胀压力的定义正常(或均衡状态的)货币流通速度是指能使价格水平保持长期不变的货币流通速度。根据前面对货币流通速度的分析,正常货币流通速度的变动方程可以写成:     

对当前价格研究中几个问题的看法

关于稳定物价方针的问题稳定物价的方针是我国物价工作的根本方针,是社会主义优越性的体现,是由社会主义基本经济规律和国民经济有计划按比例发展规律所决定的,因此具有客观必然性和现实可能性。这里所谈的物价稳定,是针对通货膨胀和物价暴涨而言,而不是谈物价冻结。“三十年不涨价”,也不排斥一定时期物价的某些调整和物价总水平平稳地略有上升。由于生产和生活的需要,由于劳动生产率的提高和生产条件、资源条件的变化,引起了产品成本的变动。为了合理地解决产品的比价和差价,包括工农业产品存在的剪刀差,在一定时期调整某些产品的价格,从而使物价总水平有所上升,这是合理的,是正常     

云南省通货膨胀的影响因素及误差修正模型

从对云南经济通货膨胀的历史回顾出发,在定性分析和定量分析相结合的基础上,客观分析了改革开放以来物价总水平的波动状况,分析了物价总水平与一些重要影响因素之间的长期均衡关系,构建了分析、预测云南通货膨胀的误差修正模型。,并作了相应的实证分析。     

对物价总水平过快上涨的思考

近年来,我国物价总水平波动较大,上涨过快,造成企业成本上升,经济效益下降,基建造价增加,投资和建设环境变化,对改革开放带来不利因素和风险;特别是使职工、居民生活费用不断增加,部分群众生活发生困难,心理上难以承受,影响社会稳定。因此,努力加强宏观调控管理,保持物价总水平基本稳定,抑止上涨过快,是,一个十分重要的任务。 当前,努力稳定物价总水平,运用经济手段等加强对物价的宏观调控,应抓好以下     

对经济快速增长与物价稳定相统一的探讨

一个国家或地区的经济快速增长,意味着社会生产力水平的迅速提高,这有利于较快地提高人民的物质文化生活水平,有利于科学技术事业的发展,有利于增强综合国力,提高国际地位,有利于加强国防建设。对社会主义国家来说,有利于巩固社会主义制度。物价基本稳定有利于人民生活水平稳定提高,有利于国内政治稳定,有利于企业进行经济核算和提高经济效益。经济增长与物价稳定相统一可以避免通货膨胀,和经济过快或过慢增长给社会再生产带来的种种严重弊端,全面持续实现经济社会发展目标。对我国来说,可以提前实现国民经济发展第三步的目标:下个世纪中叶人均国民生产总值达到中等发达国家水平,人民生活比较富裕,基本实现现代化。但是经济快速增长与物价稳定是有一定的矛盾的,二者的矛盾表现在两方面。一方面是经济快速增长,可能会影响物价大幅度上升。主要是经济快速增长会大量增加社会总需求,包括消费需求和投资需求,从而推动物价大幅度上升。另一方面是物价上升特别是物价大幅度上涨会影响经济     

浅论财务会计与物价变动会计的相容

<正>一、问题的提出 财务会计以货币作为基本计量单位且假定币值稳定对经济业务进行记录和报告,其记录和报告的计量基础是历史成本原则,即按资源取得时的实际成本记录和报告。在币值稳定或基本稳定的情况下,其提供的会计资料具有令人信服的真实性。二战以后,西方国家币值波动明显,尤其是六十年代的持续性通货膨胀,致使币值剧烈波动,导致了人们对币值稳定假设的怀疑,进而对按历史成本计价所提供的财务会计信息的可靠性和真实性产生了怀疑。为了消除通货膨胀对会计计量的影响,真实地反映企业财务状况和经营成果,建立在币值波动基础上,主张以非历史成本计量的物价变动会计(也叫通货膨胀会计)得到了较快的发展,国际会计准则委员会还先后公布了两个关于物价变动会计的会计准则。 由于物价变动会计与财务会计在计量基础方面的差异,会计界往往将物价变动会计作为财务会计的对立面来认识,夸大两者的对立,忽视了两者的相容性,从而影响了对物价变动会计的正确认识和在会计实务中的推广。 在现代经济中,物价变动是令世界各国感到头痛的经济乃至政治问题,都想方设法控制物价变动,抑制通货膨胀。八十年代以后西方国家的通货膨胀率普遍下降,发展中国家的通货膨胀率却有所上升。我国在改革开放以后,经济得到了长足发展,     

货币数量论与近年我国物价问题

<正> 能否通过管住货币数量来制止物价总水平的上涨,这是关系目前我国反通货膨胀斗争成败的一个关键性问题。我国经济学界的一些同志在批判西方经济学的货币数量论时,不承认货币数量与物价总水平之间的紧密关系。这种观点值得商榷。     

通货膨胀的症结分析

通货膨胀是一种货币现象。本文着重分析一下我国体制转轨时期通货膨胀产生的原因,并谈一点粗浅看法,就教于读者。一、通货膨胀迅猛发展的症结我国通货膨胀的产生,影响因素是多方面的,既有需求方面的,也有供给方面的;既有经济方面的,也有非经济方面的;既有直接起作用的,也有间接起作用的;既有当期产生影响的,也有滞后一段时间才产生影响的。具体说,引起通货膨胀迅猛发展的因素是:(一)粮食等农产品价格放开后,必然引起一轮通货膨胀在我国,农产品价格的变化对于市场物价的稳定关系是极大的。因为我国居民的消费结构中,食品的消费比重大,恩格尔系数一直在0.5-0.6之间徘徊,粮食和食品在物价总水平中的权重达60%-70%。1993年食品     

中国通胀惯性特征与货币政策启示

通胀惯性与货币政策效果紧密相关。本文应用具有统计无偏性的"Grid Bootstrap"估计法和未知断点结构突变检验法,研究了1980—2007年中国通货膨胀的惯性特征。本文发现,在低通胀环境下通货膨胀仍然呈现相当高的惯性特征,这暗示着我国货币政策的滞后效应依然非常明显,通货膨胀对政策变化的反应速度缓慢。计量结果说明,中央银行至少应该在出现通胀压力前一年采取措施,来应对高通胀惯性环境下的政策滞后效应。因此,新时期货币当局不仅需要保持对通胀抬头趋势的适度警觉,而且应该关注高通胀惯性对政策效果的影响。     

How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective

This article examines the dynamic behavior of the inflation rate for eight Asian countries using a quantile unit root test. We advocate a three-way definition of inflation targeting based on perfect, imperfect and zero credibility and advance the analysis by incorporating a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In doing so, we offer new insights by showing that the credibility of inflation targeting and the alternative monetary policy frameworks in Asia are imperfect, except for Malaysia and South Korea under a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In contrast to past studies that focus on the mean-reversion in inflation rates, we also consider trend-reversion and find that Asian inflation targeting countries have been building up their monetary policy credibility more than the non- inflation targeting countries in terms of a faster rate of decline in inflation rate changes. Our results generally indicate the presence of mean reversion at the lower quantiles only. Where stationarity is present, we find evidence of a varied speed of adjustment process across the quantiles. Finally, we determine the threshold levels whereby inflation becomes stationary and demonstrate that Asian inflation rates generally display stationary behavior during periods of inflation declining or slowing down.     

中国的通货膨胀惯性与通货膨胀不确定性——基于有限理性NKPC模型的分析

本文拓展有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型并结合中国参数进行校准,然后利用校准模型研究中国通货膨胀惯性特征及其与通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系。结果显示,有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型能很好地模拟出与中国实际通货膨胀惯性类似的特征。进一步研究还发现,研究样本期间,中国通货膨胀惯性总体上呈现先上升而逐渐下降的驼峰型特征,而且与通货膨胀预期不确定性存在正向相关关系。这些发现意味着,我国中央银行货币政策滞后效应正在缩短,而为了进一步降低通胀惯性并提高货币政策有效性,引导通货膨胀预期保持稳定是一大途径。     

“货币超发”是此轮通货膨胀的根本原因吗

2010年下半年以来,我国通货膨胀问题变得日益严峻,绝大多数学者认为"货币超发"是这轮通胀的根本原因。而本文从货币化等角度出发,分析指出我国市场化改革的不完善和相对停滞才是此轮通胀的深层次原因,并在此基础上提出了治理通胀的长久之策。     

Fighting inflation in Mexico: Theory and evidence

Mexico adopted the inflation targeting strategy in 2002, and this came together with declining inflation. According to the economic authorities, this also brought about lower pass-through of exchange rate changes into inflation. The objective of this article is to test the main hypotheses of Mexico’s prize-stabilization strategy. As a preliminary step, we show evidence whereby the interest rate has not the impact on demand assumed in the conventional view. We then estimate econometric models, which show first of all that inflation depends essentially on the evolution of labor and input costs. Then we demonstrate that higher employment and higher wages associated with higher output do not necessarily entail higher labor costs because productivity also increases when output rises. In the final section, we set forth our main conclusions, which cast doubts on some crucial aspects of the inflation targeting strategy, and propose a different interpretation about why inflation declined in this country.     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.     

Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations

Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.     

Inflation and inflation volatility in Thailand

Quarterly data for Thailand are used in this article for the period 1965q3–2013q4 to investigate both the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility, and the impact of inflation volatility on economic growth. Inflation volatility is estimated by deploying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) technique. A Granger causality test is then conducted to examine the causality between inflation and inflation volatility. The empirical results obtained are consistent with a number of theoretical propositions. First, the results are consistent with the Friedman–Ball proposition, which states that a rise in inflation raises inflation volatility. Second, there is evidence supporting the Holland proposition that inflation volatility lowers the rate of inflation. This is consistent with the view that central banks attempt to stabilize inflation with the rise in inflation volatility. Third, empirical results obtained by asymmetric GARCH models suggest that inflation shocks have an asymmetric impact on inflation volatility (i.e. a positive inflation shock has a larger impact on inflation volatility – as measured by the logarithm of the conditional variance of inflation – than a negative inflation shock). Fourth, inflation volatility has an adverse impact on economic growth. Finally, given the fixed/pegged or managed float exchange rate system, US inflation has been found to have a positive impact on inflation and its volatility in Thailand. This article discusses the implications of empirical findings on the design and enactment of monetary policy for price stability in Thailand.     

通货膨胀与“刘易斯转折点”的关系及其治理

根据发展经济学理论,“刘易斯转折点”来临后,普通劳动力工资和农产品价格将呈现上涨的趋势.那么其与“刘易斯转折点”之间是否存在着直接的联系,我国目前的通货膨胀是否也与此有必然的联系？理解通货膨胀的根源,对于把握未来通货膨胀的趋势,制定通货膨胀治理政策乃至其他相关政策都具有至关重要的意义.由此,本文对这些相关问题作分析,得出我国“刘易斯转折点”与通货膨胀在实际经济中没有必然的因果关系,但是作为“刘易斯转折点”中的通货膨胀现象仍须引起重视,这就需要采取有效措施缓解“刘易斯转折点”中的通货膨胀.     

Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation

Calvo-style models of nominal rigidities currently provide the dominant paradigm for understanding the linkages between wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior of the labor share of income. Ga?´ et al. (2001) argue that the model explains the combination of declining inflation and labor shares in Euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo-style model cannot explain the joint behavior of inflation and the labor share in Europe. In addition, we show that the model fails very badly in sectoral data with consistently negative estimated coefficients on the labor share in a number of different inflation specifications. Indeed, the use of a traditional output gap measure proved more successful in terms of a positive relationship with inflation.