The contribution of macroprudential policies to banks' resilience: Lessons from the systemic crises and the COVID-19 pandemic shock

This study examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in reducing the banks' risk during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares these results with the systemic banking crises years. Based on a sample of 624 banks across 40 countries during the period 2006–2020, we find that loosening capital-aimed macroprudential policies effectively reduced banks' risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, while this behavior led to increased risk during the systemic crises years. In contrast, tightening the remaining macroprudential policies during the systemic crises years and during the pandemic proved effective in reducing banks' risk. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of the impact of macroprudential policies was stronger during the systemic crisis than that during the pandemic. Finally, we show that the results are driven by the capital requirement prudential policy, both during the systemic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, although the conservation buffer and the leverage limit also contributes to the ineffectiveness of these policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The banks' leverage and loan growth also play an enhancing role of the effects of the macroprudential policies.     

Social distancing and store choice in times of a pandemic

Public health officials enforced several measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic that affected grocery stores, such as limits on store capacities and enforcement of masks and physical distancing among customers. Nevertheless, these measures can provoke queues, which could drive customers away from stores. In this study, we investigate how customers trade off between social distancing measures and increased waiting times during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our data comes from an online survey applied in New York City in May 2020. This survey included a set of discrete choice experiments framed in virtual stores, as well as a set of psychometric indicators regarding the pandemic. With this data, we estimated a latent class conditional logit model where assignment to classes is correlated with COVID-19 latent variables. We identified three latent classes with preference structures that valued social distancing to varying degrees. In spite of this heterogeneity in preferences, we found that customers were willing to wait longer to access stores with better social distancing measures. This result suggests that stores could increase, rather than decrease, their sales if they enforce public health measures at the expense of longer waiting times.     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国进出口贸易的影响及政策应对

全球性的新冠肺炎疫情对我国进出口贸易将造成一定的负面影响,我国的进出口同比增速将有所下降,外贸企业面临较大压力,国际贸易摩擦也可能有所增加。但是,本次疫情对我国进出口贸易的影响只是暂时的短期波动,我国的国际经济影响力并不会受到全局性影响。在政策应对方面,应保障临时性应急政策的有效供给,加大电子政务和电子商务的政策支持,尽快设计应对贸易摩擦的政策方案,并采取更加积极的财政政策与适度放宽的货币政策,以迅速恢复我国进出口贸易发展的强劲态势。     

Policy Lessons From Medical Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis

Intereconomics - This article discusses the medical/therapeutical responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and their political economy context. First, the very quick development of several vaccines...     

Rethinking international subsidy rules

Geo-economic tensions, notably associated with the rise of China, and global collective action problems—climate change and the COVID-19pandemic—call for international cooperation to revise and develop rules to guide both the use of domestic subsidies and responses by governments to cross-border competition spillover effects. Current WTO rules dividing all subsidies into prohibited or actionable categories are no longer fit for purpose. Piecemeal efforts in preferential trade agreements and bi- or trilateral configurations offer a basis on which to build but are too narrow in scope. Addressing spillover effects of subsidies could start with G20 countries launching a work programme to mobilise an epistemic community concerned with subsidy policies, tasked with building a more solid evidence base on the magnitude, purpose and effects of subsidy policies. The need for such cooperation has become even more pressing by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated increase in the use of subsidy programmes in major economies.     

COVID-19 and corporate tax avoidance: International evidence

Governments across the globe initiated various tax reforms in the post- Global Financial Crisis period to rein in aggressive corporate tax avoidance for managing budget deficits. These developments created new realities in the international business environment by altering the costs and benefits of corporate tax management. Yet, we have a limited understanding of the effectiveness of tax reforms in controlling corporate tax avoidance at the global level. COVID-19 offers a litmus test for how corporates manage their taxes during the pandemic in light of past tax reforms. We use financial constraints and reputational costs as two contradicting theoretical perspectives to explain corporate tax avoidance during the crisis. Consistent with the financial constraints hypothesis, we find that firms avoid taxes amid COVID-19 to prevent liquidity crunches. Our study also highlights the role of country-level information and governance quality in curbing tax avoidance during extreme events like COVID-19. Our findings call for an immediate tax policy intervention to limit corporate tax avoidance during the ongoing pandemic phases.     

疫情背景下的全球变局和亚洲经贸合作

国际金融危机以来,世界经济格局东升西降趋势显著。亚洲经济在全球经济中的地位不断上升,特别是新冠肺炎疫情之下,东亚经济率先复苏,已成为世界经济重心。亚洲始终是中国经略周边外交的重点地区,如何经略好这一地区,积极营造繁荣稳定的周边环境和发展机遇期,对中国塑造发展全球伙伴关系和深化同周边国家的关系具有重要现实意义,有助于发挥中国作为大国领导力和提升国际影响力。特别是在中美贸易摩擦加剧、新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行背景下,探讨分析亚洲经济发展的战略和政策动向,探索亚洲经贸合作的新思路新路径,对赢得中美战略博弈主动、推动高质量发展具有特殊意义,也有利于推动区域各国加强互信互利合作和维护亚洲稳定繁荣。自贸区战略已成为大国竞争的战略制高点之一,提高自由贸易区标准和质量是大势所趋。分析各区域经贸协定、亚洲产业链转移趋势及对中国的机遇和挑战,有助于未雨绸缪,早有预案,争取主动。在分析这些重大问题的基础上提出亚洲经贸合作发展中亟需解决的重大问题与合作的新思路,给出中国方案和建议。     

Unveiling the influence of COVID-19 on the online retail market: A comprehensive exploration

The global economy has experienced significant disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, profoundly impacting production and consumption patterns. This paper examines the effect of the pandemic on consumer goods prices, focusing on a sample of hand sanitizers, soap, disinfectants, and baking yeasts. The selection of these products was motivated by multiple and comprehensive criteria, where we considered various factors such as changes in consumption patterns during the pandemic, the relevance of these products in household consumption, consumer behavior, availability of historical price data, their significance in daily domestic life, and their utility in the prevention of the disease. Employing a time-series analysis, the study investigates the relationship between product prices and the S&P 500 index, as well as the presence of structural breaks in the time series. The results reveal a significant correlation between all prices in the sample and the S&P 500 index, indicating the index's efficacy as an indicator of the overall economic state. Moreover, the study identifies a single structural break in each price time series, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, hand sanitizers, soap, and disinfectants exhibit particularly substantial price jumps near the time of the break. These findings offer crucial insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer prices, which can guide policy decisions aimed at mitigating the pandemic's economic consequences.     

The effect of COVID-19 on consumer shopping behaviour: Generational cohort perspective

The purpose of this research is to contribute to an understanding of the trends and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer buying behaviour. The results document changes in consumer behaviour patterns that came to dominate at the start of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of the Czech Republic. The questionnaire survey using an online panel in a selected country was conducted to identify how consumers from the Baby Boomers, X and Y generations changed their shopping behaviour and which needs they gave preference to during the pandemic crisis in relation to their fears. Using a multiple regression analysis, we demonstrated that fear appeal (fears for health and economic fears) are associated with the changes in customer behaviour and influence traditional and online shopping related to COVID-19. The findings demonstrate significant differences as well as similarities in consumer behaviour between generations. Through empirical investigation, this research supports and expands generation cohort theory in relation to changes in consumer behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic from a Central European perspective, and provides useful information for researchers and practitioners, particularly for retailers and marketers, to implement appropriate strategies.     

疫情对中国和世界经济的冲击 ——前景和政策展望

新冠肺炎疫情产生两波冲击,第一波主要冲击中国经济;全球大流行后,对欧美主要发达经济体形成第二波冲击。疫情不仅从需求和供给两端冲击中国和世界经济,而且带来全球生产体系停摆,要素流动阻断,产业链和供应链断裂,经济活动休克,全球经济将大概率陷入衰退,并对中国经济形成负反馈影响。我国应利用好两波冲击的时间差,将应对疫情的短期政策调整为中期的一揽子方案,政策重心也要从复工复产等供给端为主转向促进扩大国内需求等需求端政策为主。     

Business-to-business selling in the post-COVID-19 era: Developing an adaptive sales force

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed how salespeople interact with customers and with business-to-business (B2B) organizations. Organizations must confront the shifts in how their salespeople operate. Recent research recommends firms develop an adaptive sales force to address disruptions like a pandemic and be prepared to meet such challenges in the future. Based on interviews with marketing and sales executives, we explore how firms have responded to these interconnected changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and offer insight into best practices deployed across industries.     

A market-financed and growth-enhancing investment plan for the euro area

In this paper, we analyze the problem of public debt-to-GDP stability in the Eurozone. We suggest that a feasible solution might be the realization of a market-financed, growth-enhancing investment program, which would be particularly welcome because of the positive short- and long-term repercussions it would have on GDP growth and the stabilizing effects on interest rates. Some simulations allow us to quantify these effects. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic further reinforce our policy implications in terms of public debt sustainability.     

Timed intervention in COVID-19 and panic buying

In view of 2020 outbreak of the pandemic COVID-19, the paper examines the relationship between government measures for combating the pandemic and their side effects. Panic buying is identified as one such side effect. Among various models and measures undertaken by government to manage the pandemic, timed-intervention policy is commonly practiced by most countries. This paper examines the timing effect between government measures and panic buying. Three studies were undertaken to understand the timing effect and identify a connection between timed measures and consumer behaviours. Semantic analysis, secondary data search, and big data analytics were deployed to address the research aim. Although claiming a causal relationship is cautioned, the findings reveal a connection between timing of government measures and panic buying. These findings are discussed with the support of real-life evidence. Implications for researchers and practitioners conclude this paper.     

FinTech and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from electronic payment systems

This paper investigates the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on financial institutions and on consumers' adoption of Financial Technology (FinTech) for payments. This paper documents the following findings in Kenya. (1) The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption and increased the payment concentration of FinTech. We document an approximately 54% increase in mobile banking transactions, a 19.56% increase in mobile banking agents, and a 14.56% increase in the number of mobile banking accounts. (2) The use of all types of electronic payment cards declined significantly during the pandemic. (3) The pandemic magnified interbank contagion and liquidity risks and reduced both domestic and international electronic fund transfers via both the Real-Gross Settlement System and the Automated Clearing House. Overall, our results indicate that FinTech not only partially alleviated the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic during Q1 of 2021 but also accelerated consumers' adoption of FinTech and digital onboarding, especially in Q3 and Q4 of 2022.     

A cross-cultural analysis of ridesharing intentions and compliance with COVID-19 health guidelines: The roles of social trust,fear of COVID-19, and trust-in-God

Ridesharing services such as Uber and Lyft have been substantially affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on social capital theory, the current research investigates how social trust relates to three types of trust in compliance with COVID-19 guidelines and consumers' ridesharing intentions. Analyzing data from two economically and culturally distinct countries, the results suggest that social trust positively affects trust in platform companies' compliance with COVID-19 guidelines (TPC), but not (or to a lesser extent) trust in drivers' (TDC) and other riders (TRC) compliance with COVID-19 guidelines in both the United States and Bangladesh. Importantly, TPC, TDC, and TRC are positively related with consumers' ridesharing intentions in the United States but not in Bangladesh. Furthermore, the analysis reveals two counterintuitive moderating effects of fear of COVID-19 and trust in God. The results provide important insights on factors affecting the ridesharing industry in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they emphasize the importance of considering cultural context in understanding consumers’ intentions to engage in the sharing economy.     

A $10 million question and other cybersecurity-related ethical dilemmas amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Cybercrime and cybersecurity are like two sides of the same coin: They are opposites but cannot exist without each other. Their mutual relation generates a myriad of ethical issues, ranging from minor to vital. The rapid development of technology will surely involve even more ethical concerns, like the infamous example of a fitness tracking company allegedly paying $10 million worth of ransom. Every cybersecurity solution, tool, or practice has to be ethical by design if it is to protect people and their rights. To identify the ethical issues that cybersecurity/cybercrime might bring about in the future, we conducted the first broad and comprehensive horizon-scanning study since the COVID-19 pandemic arose. As we began this project, nobody had the slightest idea that the coming months would bring the COVID-19 pandemic, and that the reality we had known was about to change dramatically. As it soon became apparent, the deadly coronavirus brought completely new cybersecurity/cybercrime ethical dilemmas to light, and some of the ones known before were transformed or shifted. This article presents the results of our horizon-scanning study concerning the ethical dilemmas that emerged amid the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Online food delivery companies' performance and consumers expectations during Covid-19: An investigation using machine learning approach

Online food delivery (OFD) businesses flourished during COVID-19; however, OFD companies experienced different challenges and customers' expectations. This paper uses social media data to explore OFD companies' performance and customers' expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic. The most important topics in developed and developing countries are identified using machine learning. Results show that customers in India are more concerned about social responsibility, while financial aspects are more important in the US. Overall, customers in India are more satisfied with OFD companies during the COVID-19 pandemic than the US customers. We further find that factors such as OFD companies' brand, market size, country, and COVID-19 waves play a crucial role in moderating customer sentiment. The results of the study offer several managerial insights.     

Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significantly negative impact on public sentiment, which has resulted in panic and some irrational buying behavior, which in turn has had a complex impact on agricultural product prices. This study quantified online negative sentiment using micro-blog text mining and a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) to empirically analyze the dynamic impact of negative public emotions on agricultural product prices during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. It was found that the online negative sentiment impacted agricultural products prices during COVID-19 and had significant time-varying, lag, and life cycle characteristics, with the responses being most significant in the spread and recession periods. Differences were found in the price responses for different agricultural products and in different risk areas. The online negative sentiment was found to have the greatest impact on vegetable prices, with livestock products and vegetable prices being mainly positively impacted, fruit prices being mainly negatively impacted, and aquatic product prices being negatively impacted in the early stage and positively impacted in the middle and late stages. The online negative sentiment had the greatest impact on medium-risk area agricultural product prices, followed by low-risk areas, with the lowest impact found on the high-risk area agricultural product prices. Three policy suggestions for epidemic monitoring, public opinion guidance and control, and the timely release of agricultural product information are given based on the results.     

How household food shopping behaviors changed during COVID-19 lockdown period: Evidence from Beijing,China

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a great impact on food shopping behavior. However, changes in food shopping behavior and related decision-making mechanisms remain unexplored. This study conducted a face-to-face questionnaire survey with 900 residents in three communities in Haidian, Beijing, China, to analyze food shopping behavior during the periods of pre-lockdown, lockdown (January–March 2020), and post-lockdown. Our results indicated that the preference for fresh food e-commerce shopping was accelerated by the lockdown with the usage rate increasing by 48%; the wet markets were seriously hit by the lockdown policy and had not fully recovered by the post-lockdown period (with a 75% reduction in the usage rate during lockdown). The psychological mechanisms of changes in food shopping behavior revealed that the context (e.g., community facilities) and the perceived risk of COVID-19 were two significant factors impacting the four shopping choices investigated. Specifically, the context factors affected behavior directly for supermarkets and convenience stores and indirectly for e-commerce and wet markets. The findings are expected to help in guiding emergency responses during a future pandemic as well as the long-term construction of food supply facilities.     

China’s Investments in Germany and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Intereconomics - This paper analyses how China’s investments in Germany have developed over time and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in this regard, based on four different...