Can labour market institutions mitigate the China syndrome? Evidence from regional labour markets in Europe

This paper investigates how labour market regulations alter the adverse impact of rising import competition from China in European local labour markets between 1997 and 2006. The paper constructs measures of regional exposure to Chinese imports based on previous literature and on regional labour market frictions exploiting involuntary labour reallocations. Taking into account the endogeneity of import competition and its interaction with labour market regulations, the paper finds that regions more exposed to the rise of China have suffered from a reduction in manufacturing employment shares. This shock grows larger with regional labour market frictions; hence, it exacerbates the impact of trade shock on employment. Moreover, the paper finds that employment in public services, and not in construction or private services sector, absorbed the negative shock to the manufacturing sector. The unemployment rate, the labour force participation rate and wages in all sectors are unresponsive to import competition from China.     

中国对美纺织品服装出口影响因素的实证分析

美国一直是我国重要的纺织品服装的出口市场,本文首先建立回归模型对1989-2010年我国货物贸易出口、实际汇率、北美自由贸易区的建立以及WTO关于纺织品服装协议等因素对我国对美纺织品服装出口影响进行分析,然后利用恒定市场份额模型对中国对美纺织品服装出口增长进行分析,最后提出了相应的结论和建议。     

US Economic Sanctions Against China: Who Gets Hurt?

The United States maintains a broad spectrum of economic sanctions against China ranging from export controls to prohibitions on certain imports. Our study finds that, although from a macroeconomic perspective, US sanctions have had no significant adverse effect on China's overall economic growth and trade between the two countries, they do have a negative impact on producers and consumers in both countries. US economic sanctions have hindered technology transfer to China and US investment in China. US restrictions on imports from China have caused deadweight losses for the US due to higher domestic production costs for import substitutes and a reduction in consumption. US export controls have hindered US exports to China and contributed to large US trade deficits with China. The export controls have also caused losses of high‐paid jobs in the United States and benefited competitors from other countries. In addition, US economic sanctions against China have had significant third‐party effects. China's diversification of imports to sources other than the United States may have a long‐term effect on US exports to China even after US economic sanctions against China are lifted.     

Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Foreign Presence and Import Competition in Irish Services Sectors?

This paper examines whether domestic firms benefit from the pro‐competitive effects of imports from abroad and from the presence of foreign‐owned firms in the host country in three Irish market‐services sectors between 2001 and 2007. Grouping the three sectors together masks opposing effects in individual sectors. Where significant, the effect of foreign presence on domestic firms tends to be negative, this is mainly the case in wholesale and retail trade. Despite it being of lesser importance than foreign presence in these sectors, import competition from abroad is negatively associated with domestic firms' productivity in wholesale and retail trade, but positively in transport, storage and communication. There is no significant effect of foreign presence or import competition in real estate, rental and business activities. Using capital‐labour ratios as an input‐based indicator related to productivity suggests that domestic firms adapt to increased foreign competition by adjusting their inputs.     

Student preferences for domestic-made or imported apparel as influenced by shopping habits

Information regarding consumer awareness of imports has been an ongoing concern of the textile and apparel industries. This study was undertaken to provide additional information about attitudes of apparel imports from the viewpoints of college students. The results support those of earlier studies for the most part. Data analysis, in contrast to other studies, showed no clear preference toward either domestic or imported apparel. However, there was concern and strong support for the U.S. textile and apparel industries. Most students indicated that they would purchase domestic apparel over imported apparel to help the U.S. economy.     

The Trade Effects of US Anti‐dumping Actions against China Post‐WTO Entry

Since China's entry into the WTO, US anti‐dumping (AD) actions against China have increased, particularly with respect to multiple petitions. Distinguishing between US single and multiple petitions, we examine the trade effects of US AD actions against China based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data. The results show that a US single petition investigation greatly restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also causes more significant import diversion from non‐named countries. In the short run, a preliminary AD duty imposed on China via a US multiple petition not only restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also prevents trade diversion from non‐named countries. In the long run, a final AD duty on China resulting from a US multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on China and causes US import diversion from non‐named countries. Thus, a final AD duty imposed on China following a US multiple petition not only harms China's exports but also fails to help the US achieve import substitution. Furthermore, we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary AD duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty.     

中印两国纺织品服装在欧美市场的竞争关系研究

基于纺织品服装细分到三位数的进出口数据,利用价格贸易条件、竞争互补指数、竞争压力指数、显示性对称比较优势指数和出口产品相似性指数对中印两国纺织品服装在欧美市场的贸易竞争关系进行分析,发现中国纺织品服装在贸易量上具有显著优势,但在贸易条件和比较优势上则弱于印度;同时两国纺织品服装在欧美市场具有较高的出口相似性,中国对印度的竞争压力显著高于印度对中国的竞争压力。随后对两国纺织服装业的优劣势进行分析,并对如何更好地促进中国纺织服装业的发展提出了对策建议。     

Collected Customs Duties: The Level of Taxation on Imports Applied by the US and the EU

Relating the collected customs duty to the value of imports enables the estimation of a rate of applied duty that takes into account all pricing components and their use. Indeed, this ad valorem equivalent integrates the complex dimensions of customs duties, the measures of exemption and suspension, and those concerning preferential regimes. Processing collected duties for all the products reveals that the 1.5 per cent rate of duty actually applied in 2003 is the same for the EU and the US. Nevertheless, it appears that the US taxes more the least developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries than does the EU. Thus, setting aside those products which enter free of duty, the rate of taxation applied by the US is 15 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively with regards to LDCs and developing countries, whereas in the EU it is only 3.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent. In the US market the sectors that are the most highly taxed upon importation are textiles, apparel and clothing, cotton and articles of leather, whereas in the EU it is more agricultural and food products (fruits and preserves, meats, sugars and cereals).     

The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth‐path‐aligned economic geography typologies – resource‐rich; landlocked and resource‐poor; coastal and resource‐poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource‐poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource‐poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.     

DEVELOPMENTAL PATTERNS OF ASIA'S APPAREL INDUSTRY

People in many parts of the world depend upon the manufacture of textile and apparel products for their livelihood. The status of these two closely related industries has a major impact on the economic health of many countries, both large and small. In fact, the growth of the textile and apparel industry may be one of the strongest, most reliable indicators of a developing country's economic development. Further, the level of sophistication of production in this industry may be viewed as a ‘barometer’ of the level of technological progress in a country. For this reason the developmental patterns of Asia's apparel industry are studied.     

The impact of China's WTO accession on Hong Kong textiles,clothing and its supporting industries

China's accession to the WTO and the ‘Agreement on Textiles and Clothing’ (ATC) which gradually ban the use of quota, will have profound impacts on the textile industry in China. This article attempts to examine such impacts on all textile firms of Hong Kong origin. It briefly examines the impact of WTO on the textile industries in general, the participation of Hong Kong based firms in China's textiles industry, and the competitors from foreign countries. It examines in detail the practice of obtaining Hong Kong quota for textile products that are made in the Mainland by Hong Kong firms. The article argues that there are positive and negative effects of China–s WTO accession for all textile firms of Hong Kong origin. It concludes that the shifting of the targeted market to high-end, high-value-added is the only way of survival for the textile firms of Hong Kong.     

Assessing the Impacts of US‐Japan Bilateral Trade Agreements, 1980–1995

The paper presents three different viewpoints on the effects of US‐Japan bilateral trade agreements and finds some evidence to support each one using trade data from 1980–1995. For most of the 25 industry‐agreement cases, the data do not support a conclusion of significant positive impacts of the agreements on Japan's imports of targeted manufactured products from either the US or non‐US sources. In at least one high‐profile case involving autos, I find evidence suggesting positive impacts on imports from the US, but in this case the data suggests trade diversion benefiting US0based producers at the expense of European ones. I also find a few cases where the agreements may have produced positive effects on Japan's imports from non‐US sources.     

基于CMS模型的中国纺织品服装出口分析

本文利用恒定市场份额模型对1992年以来中国纺织品服装出口情况进行了分析,并与土耳其、印度和巴基斯坦做了横向对比。研究结果表明,中国纺织品服装出口的增长是进口市场的结构效应、自身的竞争效应以及结构与竞争力的交互影响的二阶效应共同作用的结果。其中竞争效应是带动当前中国纺织品服装出口增长的主要因素。土耳其、印度和巴基斯坦纺织品服装出口的增长主要是由于市场需求规模的扩大,其次是竞争力效应,二阶效应的作用非常小。     

The trade facilitation impact of the Chinese diaspora

Using an enhanced data set on the population share of overseas Chinese in 1970 and 1990, this paper analyses the impact of the Chinese diaspora on facilitating China's bilateral trade during the period 1973–2013. Our findings suggest substantial trade creation effects resulting from the presence of ethnic Chinese in the trade partner population. Diaspora impacts on Chinese bilateral imports are in general higher than those found for exports. Coethnic networks play a larger role as long as the partner country does not have an RTA with China in place. Among export sectors, effects found were strongest for food, as well as for machinery and transport equipment. In regard to imports, coethnic networks matter mostly for raw materials, machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals.     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

FDI对我国纺织服装业技术溢出效应分析

本文实证分析了FDI对我国纺织服装业的技术溢出效应。结果表明,FDI在纺织服装业的溢出效应明显存在,且服装业中FDI的外溢效应大于我国工业平均水平,但纺织业的外溢效应低于我国工业的平均水平。笔者认为,行业内FDI溢出效应的强弱受行业内利用FDI的数量和质量的影响,而服装业获得较多FDI技术外溢的重要原因在于其利用外资的密度较大,且在引进技术中重视对先进技术的消化吸收。然而,尽管如此,我国纺织服装业目前仍被锁定在全球价值链低端的生产环节,全员劳动生产率较低。因此,我国应通过利用FDI培育和获取核心技术、知名品牌和销售渠道等高级生产要素,促使企业向价值链的高附加值环节攀升。     

Robertson's model: a framework for exploration of World War II conservation consumption policy influence on fashion in the US

This paper studies pertinent materials related to the conservation of textile apparel and textile‐related natural resources that appeared in poster campaign communications published during the Second World War in the US. An examination of World War II poster campaign communications conveying the need for conservation efforts and rationing as communicated to consumers infers the historical context of the era. These poster campaign communications asked consumers to utilize fully of limited resources while maintaining a sense of individuality and trend‐setting creativity and fashion. World War II shortages and allocations influenced fashion innovations in women's apparel in the US. This paper provides a retrospective examination of innovative trends and the various conservation themes associated with women's fashion identify themes used to influence and to inspire Americans to reuse and recycle in support of the war effort. At no other time in history was voluntary textile conservation as prevalent in mainstream American culture as it was during the 1940s. Content analysis reveals reoccurring themes that appeared in the advertisements developed by the War Advertising Council in the 1940s and used in their poster campaign advertisements. Themes and conservation activities identified in their poster campaign communications included

• ? ‘America's New Role as Fashion Arbiters’;
• ? ‘Conserve Time, Money, Materials for National Defense Program’;
• ? ‘War Production Board General Limitations Order L‐85 – Fabric Conservation on Silhouette Dimensions’;
• ? ‘Fashion for Victory’;
• ? ‘Beauty in Peace and War’;
• ? ‘Fabric Conservation’;
• ? ‘Teaching Consumers How to Conserve’;
• ? ‘You're In the War Too’;
• ? ‘Wearing Clothes More’;
• ? ‘Changing Materials for War [Nylon]’.

In addition, print communications were categorized according to Robertson's adoption process model. This study found evidence that supports that Robertson's adoption process model was a useful tool in studying these poster campaign communications relative to Robertson's decision‐making process.     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

中日纺织服装产业合作博弈分析

中国与日本同为东北亚的两个纺织强国,在国际出口环境不断恶化的条件下,中日两国纺织服装产业开展合作,对扩大两国内需、促进两国经济增长及调整我国纺织服装产业结构具有重要意义。本文结合影响中日纺织服装产业发展的具体因素,建立合作博弈模型,对中日纺织服装合作需要满足的充分必要条件进行分析,并对合作的可行性进行了验证,得出结论认为合作博弈是中日纺织服装产业的最优选择。