2000～2008年中国经济增长对贫困减少的作用:一个全国和分区域的实证分析

本文利用2000～2008年分省的经济增长和贫困数据研究中国新世纪以来经济增长与贫困减少的关系,包括不同区域经济增长和贫困人口变化的趋势,以及经济增长和不同产业增长对不同区域贫困发生率的影响。结果表明,进入21世纪以来,中国的经济增长依然对减少贫困发挥着显著的作用,但贫困减少的速度低于经济增长的速度,贫困发生率对人均GDP的弹性绝对值为1.09,明显低于20世纪80年代的水平;然而,各区域的经济增长速度、贫困减少速度以及贫困发生率对人均GDP的弹性存在明显的差异。与第二、第三产业相比,农业部门的增长仍然具有较高的减贫效应。     

中国农业科研投资区域优化配置研究

中国农业科研投资有效的促进了农业经济增长和贫困减少,但中国的农业经济发展和贫困人口以及农业科研投资都存在明显的地域差别。本文把中国分为八个农业生态区域,利用1990—2005年的省级面板数据,比较了不同区域的农业科研投资对农业经济增长和减少贫困的作用,并在此基础上,运用数学规划方法,研究了如何优化配置区域间的农业科研投资,从而更好的实现农业经济增长和减少贫困的目标。研究结果表明,农业科研投资的边际经济收益和边际减贫效果都较为显著,但区域间相差悬殊;优化农业科研投资区域分配可以较大幅度的提高农业经济增长率和减少贫困人口,但农业经济增长和减少贫困目标之间有些冲突,需要综合权衡两个目标分配各个区域的农业科研投资。     

农业发展、劳动力转移与农村贫困状态的变化——分地区研究

改革开放以来,中国经济高速增长,农村贫困人口大幅度下降。一般认为总体的经济增长对贫困的改善起着举足轻重的作用。本文认为,一般的经济增长可能大幅度降低贫困发生率,但也可能导致剩余贫困人口的贫困状况更加恶化,而且这种可能的副作用会因地而异。本研究使用贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度作为测度贫困的三个指标,以贫困地区为研究对象并按照农业资源禀赋和农村劳动力转移规模为特征选取两个样本,探索并验证农村地区人均农业收入和非农收入与贫困的三个指标变化影响的内在机制和关系,并提出不同地区扶贫政策取向的建议。     

新疆开发式扶贫的政策实践与理论思考

改革开放以来,新疆农村实施了开发式扶贫战略,取得了巨大成就。贫困地区的社会经济各项事业得到了不同程度的发展,贫困人口的生产生活条件得到了很大改善,新疆实现了经济增长和贫困下降的双重任务。但是也必须注意到,新的时期以经济增长为导向的扶贫开发战略对减贫的影响作用有限,农村社会保障体系的构建没有与扶贫战略紧密配合,极端贫困人口仍有漏出,扶贫政策绩效没有达到预期理想效果。文章对新疆开发式扶贫战略实施的经验进行总结和反思,对今后新疆制定新的贫困战略具有重大意义。     

经济增长、收入分配与贫困:估计贫困的增长弹性

经济增长和收入分配在很大程度上决定着人类反贫困的进程,探讨增长、分配和贫困之间的关系,估计贫困的增长弹性具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文采用60个发展中国家(地区)在过去20多年的数据对贫困的增长弹性进行了估计。     

经济、人口视角下的城镇化与贫困：线性与U型关系基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

目的 城镇化是影响经济增长和贫困减缓的关键要素,对于城镇化和减贫之间关系的探究具有重要的理论和现实价值。方法 文章基于1999—2018年我国30个省（市、自治区,不包括港澳台和西藏）的面板数据,运用固定效应模型、工具变量法等,分别从人口城镇化和经济城镇化的角度出发,对城镇化和贫困之间的关系进行深入研究。结果 （1）城镇化具有显著的减贫效应,人口城镇化和经济城镇化均能有效降低农村贫困程度。（2）人口城镇化与贫困之间呈U型关系,而经济城镇化对贫困的影响是单向负相关。（3）我国城镇化减贫效应的区域差异明显,相对于东部地区来说,城镇化对于中西部地区的减贫效应更显著。结论 城镇化是减贫的重要途径,但过度的人口城镇化会加剧贫困,城镇化减贫的重点在于与人口城镇化相匹配的经济城镇化水平同步提高,方能达致减贫。所以应全面提升城镇化规划的科学性、基础设施的建设质量和经济发展水平,合理推进城镇化的减贫进程。     

新疆经济增长的反贫困效应分析

本文运用FGT贫困指数,基于Lorenz曲线对新疆农村贫困的变动进行测算,实证研究了1995年～2009年新疆农村贫困的变动。对经济增长的减贫效应进行测算,同时将贫困变动的原因归结为经济增长因素和收入分配因素。结果表明,经济增长通过提高农村居民收入,使贫困发生率大幅度下降,经济增长具有明显的减贫作用,伴随近年来收入不平等的加剧,收入不平等部分的抵消了经济增长的减贫作用。     

亲贫困增长视角下我国乡村旅游经济的发展

在我国旅游业快速发展的同时,乡村旅游业给很多农村地区带来了巨大的经营效益。很多基层政府都将发展乡村旅游业视为非常重要的产业扶贫策略,而乡村旅游经济增长能解决农村的贫困问题吗?在亲贫困增长理论下,仅仅借助经济增长是难以达到减贫目标的。尽管经济增长是解决贫困问题的必要条件,但却不是充分条件。政府应针对贫困群体制定出长期的战略规划,减少贫富之间的差距,使得贫困人群能够从经济增长中获得可观的收益。在本文中,笔者从亲贫困增长的内涵入手,对我国乡村旅游经济增长与旅游扶贫的关系展开探讨,并提出了我国乡村旅游经济亲贫困增长的有效路径。     

新疆农村“效率与公平”的贫困变动效应分析

新疆作为我国少数民族聚集的边疆省份,贫困问题的妥善解决至关重要。文章通过测试新疆农村地区1988-2012年间FGT贫困指数发现,新疆农村地区贫困程度呈现阶段性波动,而近几年贫困人口内部收入分配状况有恶化趋势。新疆农村地区经济增长水平较高,但同时收入分配状况却不容乐观。状态空间模型的计量结果显示:经济增长具有贫困变动负效应,可以降低贫困,而收入分配状况具有贫困变动正效应,加重了新疆农村贫困程度。相比之下,经济增长的不断提效虽然有助于改善地区发展状况,但是随之带来的收入分配问题却使新疆农村居民收入差距拉大,大大降低了经济增长的减贫作用。在此结论基础上,提出了相应建议。     

农地流转的多维减贫效应——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

文章基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)样本数据,采用倾向得分匹配法,从多维贫困视角出发,实证检验农地流转行为对缓解农村地区贫困状况的作用效果,并探究其区域异质性。结果发现:农地流转具有较为显著的多维减贫效应。对多维贫困指数进行分解,观察到农地流转使农户在收入、健康和主观感知维度的贫困状况得到了缓解,但在教育和生活水平维度并不存在显著的减贫效应;不同流转行为的减贫效应存在不对称性,农地转出更能改善农户的贫困状况;不同区域农地流转的减贫效应存在明显差异,西部地区的减贫效应最大,中部地区次之,东部地区减贫效应最弱,但相比于东部和中部地区,西部地区农户的多维贫困现状也更为严峻。因此,因地制宜地推动农地流转是缓解农村地区多维贫困进而消除相对贫困的有效路径。     

Tournaments, Fairness, and Risk

We estimate willingness to pay (WTP) to operate under two types of contracts—tournaments (Ts) and fixed performance-standard contracts (F). Our results are consistent with the notion that subjects having social preferences for fairness and care about risk. That is, when subjects experience greater inequity under tournaments relative to fixed performance contracts, or experience greater revenue risk under tournaments, the gap between WTP for fixed performance and tournament contracts increases, ceteris paribus. Our results provide an explanation for grower dissatisfaction with tournament compensation schemes independent of possible concerns regarding opportunistic behavior by integrators.     

Agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development: An overview of issues, patterns, and determinants

This paper offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development. It sets out a conceptual framework for understanding the links among these three broad phenomena and then discusses emerging issues and evidence concerning the factors conditioning agroindustrialization in developing countries and the subsequent effects on employment, poverty, and the natural environment. We conclude with a research agenda.     

Renters,landlords, and farmland stewardship

Are farmers better stewards of the land they own than the land they rent from others? We answer this question using a data set that identifies Ontario farmers’ conservation practices on their own land as well as the land they rent. Using a fixed‐effects regression approach, we find that the role of tenure varies for different types of conservation practices. Farmers were found to be just as likely to adopt a machinery‐related practice such as conservation tillage on their rented land as that land which they own. On the other hand, farmers were found to be less likely to adopt site‐specific conservation practices such as planting cover crops on rented land. However, this effect diminishes as the expected length of the rental relationship increases when the landlord has a farming background.     

Crop research,biotech canola,and innovation policy in Canada: Challenges,opportunities, and evolution

Increased investment in agricultural research could contribute to sustainable development goals and benefit farmers, consumers, the environment, and the economy. This paper provides recent evidence and a critical assessment of the evolving Canadian canola crop development and innovation policy and compares it to the wheat and pulse sectors that differ in degree of biotechnology adoption, seeded acreage, intellectual property rights, and private sector involvement. This study also assesses how crop characteristics and technological changes affect future optimal public policy. A number of innovation policies are discussed that could stimulate further growth within the crop sector.     

Remittances,monetary institutions,and autocracies

ABSTRACT

How do remittances affect the choice of exchange rate regimes? Previous research shows that remittances, by easing the ‘impossible trinity’, increase the probability of governments adopting fixed exchange rates. However, that research overlooks the conditioning effect of monetary and political institutions. We argue that remittances, by altering recipient governments’ incentives to use monetary policy counter-cyclically, make central bank independence a credible anti-inflationary tool in less credible regimes; that is, autocracies. Thus, autocracies that receive remittances do not need to rely on fixed exchange rates. In this way, remittances open policy alternatives for developing autocracies. Statistical tests on a sample of 87 developing and transitional countries between 1980 and 2010 support our argument.     

Tenants, Landlords, and Soil Conservation

It has long been argued that tenants tend to overexploit land, but this conventional wisdom has been derived largely without consideration of landlords' actions. We examine what happens when landlords can invest in durable conservation measures in addition to choosing rental contract terms. When tenants are risk neutral, landlords overinvest in conservation under cash rental contracts but can achieve first best levels of output and protection against land degradation when conservation investment is combined with share rental. When tenants are risk averse, the first best is unattainable. In this case, conservation investment combined with share rental results in output levels below the first best, while equilibrium conservation investment may be greater or less than the first best. These results suggest that contract form and conservation investments are likely made simultaneously, so that econometric studies of conservation practice adoption that treat rental status as exogenous are likely subject to bias.     

Incentives, Information Systems, and Competition

We investigate how different competitive regimes affect the ability to provide incentives based on noisy information systems. The set-up involves multiple producers and processors in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection. Reduced competition may facilitate incentive provision by allowing more high-powered incentives. This may rationalize both vertical and horizontal integration as seen in many agricultural markets with uncertain quality grading. On the other hand, if trading terms are settled before the information is observed, a noisy information system may suffice to give proper incentives. This may rationalize the use of long-term conditional price contracts in the trading of many agricultural products.