中国大陆民众赴香港旅游研究综述

中国香港、英国、美国等地旅游学者对中国大陆民众赴香港旅游进行了不少研究,并在《Tourism Management》等英文学术期刊上发表了一系列的研究成果.本文从大陆民众赴港旅游动机、旅游感知、消费行为、旅游预测等4个方面对这些研究成果进行了梳理和回顾,并对未来研究方向进行了展望.     

温泉旅游目的地形象感知对游客满意度的影响——以咸宁温泉为例

以咸宁温泉游客为对象,运用因子分析法和线性回归分析法,分析温泉旅游目的地形象感知对游客满意度的影响.研究表明:温泉旅游目的地形象感知因素主要由温泉旅游环境形象、服务设施形象和产品形象及功能形象等四大因子构成,且形象感知因素对游客满意度有显著影响,但不同的形象感知因素对游客满意度之间的影响程度不同.     

京津冀和长三角城市群的旅游形象感知对比研究

文章基于Python、Gephi平台，利用HanLP、SnowNLP等自然语言处理（NLP）工具对比分析中国京津冀、长三角两大城市群的旅游形象感知，对其进行词汇分析、双词共现短语、语义网络分析，实现从点、线、面层层递进式探索。研究表明：(1)京津冀、长三角认知形象在旅游目的地、旅游配套设施、旅游资源等方面具有一定程度的相似性，同时两大城市群旅游形象各具特色。(2)京津冀、长三角情感形象感知以积极情感为主，消极为辅，中性占比最低。相对于长三角情感形象，京津冀积极情感占比较多，消极情感占比较少。(3)旅游资源距离和类型等影响旅游形象关联。(4)两大城市群整体旅游形象感知具有小世界网络属性，其语义网络呈现“中心—外围”结构，且以正面形象为主。(5)文章构建城市群旅游形象的“T（旅游者）—S（旅游空间）—R（旅游资源）”理论框架。     

基于“灰度区”模型的文化创意产业园区旅游品牌形象整合模式

旅游目的地形象一直是旅游目的地建设的重要内容,它直接影响着游客的满意度和回头率,也直接影响着旅游目的地的声誉以及整个旅游区的营业收入。本文从旅游者的感知出发,研究旅游者在游览文化创意产业园区的过程中影响他们旅游感知满意度的因素,提出了游客感知“灰度区”与游客感知“光环区”的概念,分析了“灰度区”旅游形象开发的必要性与可行性,并对文化创意产业园区旅游产品的形象整合模式进行了探讨。     

基于网络文本分析的大连市旅游目的地形象感知

随着大数据时代到来,收集在线游记文本建立文本数据库,可获取游客对旅游目的地的综合感知形象,为城市旅游目的地形象感知研究提供新的思路。以携程网、去哪儿网攻略收集的游客游记文本作为研究样本,基于旅游目的地形象感知"认知—情感"模型,运用文本分析法提取大连市的形象感知高频特征词,探索游客对大连市的旅游形象感知并运用百度指数分析校验。结果表明:(1)海洋、广场、公园是游客对于大连旅游形象的基本认知形象,体现其滨海旅游资源特色突出。(2)游客对于旅游资源、旅游环境、旅游活动的满意度较高,评价中以积极情感为主。消极感知的主要来源具体反映在景区(点)门票、旅游服务态度、交通基础设施破旧等旅游基础设施与配套方面。(3)整体形象感知上,大连市的整体形象感知是滨海旅游胜地、"广场之城",正面积极感知占比较高。(4)游记语义网络图呈"核心—次核心—外围"圈层结构,以大连为核心,大连—广场,大连—海洋,大连—老虎滩是网络图中联系较为密切的关系链。     

基于游客调查的沈阳旅游形象传播实证研究

良好的城市旅游形象将会增强城市旅游竞争力,以游客为调查对象,调查其对沈阳市的了解程度、了解途径、对沈阳城市旅游形象各个构成要素的感知评判以及对沈阳城市旅游形象综合感知等,希望为沈阳旅游形象的塑造和传播,为沈阳的健康发展旅游业提供建议和参考。     

信息涉入差异对旅游目的地行前形象影响分析

旅游者对旅游目的地的行前形象认知是影响其旅游决策的重要因素,旅游者信息涉入的差异对其旅游目的地行前形象的形成有重大影响。以旅游信息传播为视角,采用便利抽样方式对408名旅游者仅从旅行社和既从旅行社又从互联网来获取行前旅游目的地信息涉入差异进行调查,探讨旅游者感知的旅游目的地行前形象与旅游信息涉入来源、信息涉入程度和个人互联网体验能力的相关关系。研究发现,当旅游者在行前同时从旅行社和互联网两种途径获得旅游目的地形象信息,与单一从旅行社获取目的地信息相比,旅游者对旅游目的地的行前形象感知更差,但是这种感知效果会随着旅游者的互联网体验和旅游者信息收集能力的增强而逐步得到改善,并据此提出了一些管理建议。     

主题公园在武汉旅游业中的作用探微：兼议武汉长江乐园的开发

本从武汉市的旅游区位、旅游资源、旅游配套设施、旅游消费结构和城市旅游形象等方面入手，分析了武汉市旅游业的发展现状，作认为在这个旅游温点城市修建和经营大型主题公园将对塑武汉都市旅游形象，提升城市感知印象，开拓客源市场带动相关产业链发展有着积极的作用。同时，作对武汉开发大型主题公园提出了一些建议，以供参考。     

非物质文化遗产真实性保持与旅游开发协调共生感知研究

针对非物质文化遗产真实性保持与旅游开发系统的复杂性,基于旅游感知研究非物质文化遗产共生特征和发展机制的研究是旅游业可持续发展的必须手段。因此,在借鉴对遗产旅游和民族文化旅游研究成果的基础上,结合非物质文化遗产旅游自身的特点,基于旅游者对其真实性的感知,并进一步探讨在非物质文化旅游中真实性感知对旅游满意度是否产生影响,验证游客对非物质文化遗产真实性的感知,通过政府非物质文化遗产本体与旅游开发的共生机制,确立政府制定政策和完善保障措施。     

基于UGC数据的南岳衡山旅游目的地形象感知研究

目的地旅游形象是吸引旅游者的关键因素,而旅游者生成的UGC数据则在相当程度上较为精准地反映了旅游者对旅游目的地的偏好、兴趣和评价。以南岳衡山为研究对象,以百度旅游等旅游门户网站爬取的游记和评论为研究素材,采用文本分析与基于词向量的情感分析方法,基于目的地形象构建的"认知—情感"三维模型,分别从认知形象、情感形象和整体形象三个方面探讨了旅游者对其旅游目的地形象的感知。结果表明:①根据词频统计分析、关键词聚类方法得出,旅游者对南岳衡山的认知可归纳为人物、自然、交通、活动、建筑、文化、场所/地域等七个维度;②根据情感和语义分析方法得出,旅游者对南岳衡山的积极形象感知要素包括佛道共存、心愿之旅、五岳独秀、四季佳景、福寿文化、冰雪奇缘、精妙建筑、文明奥区和抗战名山等九个核心类属,消极形象感知要素则包括服务、资源、环境、安全、体验和设施等6个核心类属、19个二级子类;③基于词向量的情感分析方法得出,旅游者对南岳衡山的整体形象感知是积极的,综合正面评论占比91.58%。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.