The zero-leverage phenomenon: A bivariate probit with partial observability approach

The empirical literature on zero leverage investigates why some firms are debt-free using standard logit and probit specifications. However, such models are not suitable to provide a direct answer to the main research question that arises in this context: is zero leverage a financial decision of the firm or an imposition raised by creditors? This paper examines the factors that affect the demand for debt and the supply of debt using bivariate probit models with partial observability in the sense of Poirier (1980), providing empirical evidence on the zero-leverage phenomenon for European listed firms during the period 2001-2016. We find that some variables influence in opposite directions debt demand and supply, or affect significantly only of them. In particular, firms’ profitability affects negatively debt demand but positively debt supply; asset tangibility increases the willingness of creditors to grant debt but does not influence debt demand; and the recent European crises reduced the propensity of firms to resort to debt but did not affect debt supply. We also find that firms in countries with common law systems, market-based financial systems and stronger protection to investors’ and creditors’ rights are more prone to have zero leverage due to both demand and supply effects.     

The mystery of zero-leverage firms

We present the puzzling evidence that, from 1962 to 2009, an average 10.2% of large public nonfinancial US firms have zero debt and almost 22% have less than 5% book leverage ratio. Zero-leverage behavior is a persistent phenomenon. Dividend-paying zero-leverage firms pay substantially higher dividends, are more profitable, pay higher taxes, issue less equity, and have higher cash balances than control firms chosen by industry and size. Firms with higher Chief Executive Officer (CEO) ownership and longer CEO tenure are more likely to have zero debt, especially if boards are smaller and less independent. Family firms are also more likely to be zero-levered.     

An empirical analysis of zero-leverage firms: New evidence from the UK

This paper examines why some firms have no debt in their capital structures despite the potential benefits of debt financing. It adds new insights to this zero-leverage phenomenon by addressing two unexplored questions: Does a firm have zero leverage as a consequence of financial constraints or because of a strategic decision to mitigate underinvestment incentives and preserve financial flexibility? Is the decision to follow a zero-leverage policy affected by macroeconomic conditions? Analyzing a new sample of UK firms over the period 1980–2007, we show that the zero-leverage policy is prevalent but that zero-leverage firms are not homogeneous. There are two distinct groups of unlevered firms with different levels of constraints as measured by their dividend policy, namely payers and non-payers. Importantly, we find new evidence that these groups have different motives for eschewing debt. Firms in the second group (non-payers) have zero leverage mainly due to financial constraints. Firms in the first group (payers) deliberately eschew debt to mitigate investment distortions, as predicted by the underinvestment and financial flexibility hypotheses. Macroeconomic conditions have a significant effect on the zero-leverage decision, especially for this less constrained group.     

The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon

We test the implications of a model of multi-asset speculative trading in which liquidity differentials between on-the-run and off-the-run U.S. Treasury bonds ensue from endowment shocks in the presence of two realistic market frictions—information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders—and a public signal. Our evidence suggests that (i) off/on-the-run liquidity differentials are economically and statistically significant, even after controlling for several of the bonds’ intrinsic characteristics (such as duration, convexity, repo rates, or term premiums), and (ii) off/on-the-run liquidity differentials are smaller immediately following bond auction dates, and larger when the uncertainty surrounding the ensuing auction allocations is high, when the dispersion of beliefs across informed traders is high, and when macroeconomic announcements are noisy, consistent with our model.     

The ECU as international money

The ECU is compared with alternative foreign currencies to determine how adequately it performs the various functions of international money. For the period April 1979 through December 1984 it is found that for most European economic agents the ECU was superior to the SDR, the US dollar, and a representative foreign currency (the Netherlands guilder) as a unit-of-account, as a store of value, and as a means of deferred payment. An examination is made of the distribution of the series of exchange-rate changes so that appropriate statistical methods are employed in making a final assessment about the variability of the ECU.     

The role of international auditing in the improvement of international financial reporting

In this paper, we describe the convergence of several forces that underscore the significance of independent auditors as key enablers of the improvement of international financial reporting. This paper is not an empirical research study but is intended to survey the landscape of international auditing. Based on our experience as auditing practitioners and academics, we describe and provide discussions of key conceptual issues surrounding international auditing harmonization and its relation to the implementation of international accounting standards. A matrix framework is presented at the conclusion of the paper to summarize the principal point of the paper that the regulations and control of the quality of audits is the critical factor in achieving high quality financial reporting. The next critical phase of the process is to improve the quality of the individual audits that take place around the world through government regulation, profession self-regulation, and quality assurance in international firms. IFAC has taken significant steps in strengthening its role as the global self-regulatory body for the profession, including improvements in standards and compliance. The establishment of a public oversight board with authority to discipline rather than persuade is a critical component for effective international auditing standards.     

国际金融秩序正发生变化

中国推动和倡议建立金砖银行和亚洲基础设施投资银行等新兴金融机构，引起广泛的关注，究竟如何看待这样一种变化？这种变化带来的是一种挑战？还是一种相互补充？变化的背景究竟是什么？请看本栏目文章《世界银行的作用和局限性》、《国际货币基金组织：继续辉煌还是走向衰落？》和《新兴金融机构：新力量、新格局、新希望》。     

The international co-movements of Finish stocks

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the international co-movements of Finnish stocks. The vector autoregression (VAR) approach indicates that US and especially Swedish stock markets lead Finnish stock market returns by approximately one or two months. The results based on international market models indicate that the returns of individual Finnish stocks are significantly positively related to those of Sweden, while the relation between Finnish and US returns is significantly lower. The relation seems to vary clearly between industries, some industries being related to US markets as well. Significant time-series instability is reported in the results, however.     

聚焦国际投资基金

普凯投资基金（Prax Capital） 成立于美国，是一家专注投资中国市场的私募股权投资基金，主要投资成长期／扩张期的制造业和服务业企业。公司对单个企业的投资额一般在1000万～3000万美元，投资周期通常为3～7年。     

The international transmission of monetary policy

This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private sector do occur, especially for US policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the international bank lending channel and the portfolio channel of monetary policy transmission. They also show that the frictions that banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries. International spillovers into lending can be large for some banks, even while the average international spillovers of policies into nonbank lending generally are not large.     

The international monetary system: The quest for stability

The short-run market behaviour of international exchange rates is an insignificant influence on the state of the international monetary order. And an analysis of the rational choices available to institutions and governments often reveals less about the likely outcomes than a study of their actual behaviour. Stability in the international monetary order requires that the pattern of capital and savings flows be closely related. There is no guarantee that these patterns will ever coincide.     

The international spillover effects of pension reform

This paper explores how pension reforms in countries with PAYG schemes affect countries with funded systems. We use a two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where the countries only differ in their pension systems. We distinguish between the case where a reform potentially leads to a Pareto improvement in the PAYG country, and where this is impossible. In the latter case, the funded country shares both in the costs and the benefits of the reform. However, if a Pareto-improving pension reform is feasible in the PAYG country, a Pareto improvement in the funded country is not guaranteed.     

The international system : Limits to forecasting

This article describes the obstacles which stand in the way of analysis of the future of the international system and identifies research needs for surmounting them. Such forecasting must be based on an understanding of the structure of the system and its evolution, yet given the heterogeneity of existing paradigms in the study of international relations, it is difficult to give coherent expression to that structure. Progress in forecasting research on the international system therefore implies a lessening of the heterogeneity of those paradigms, and suggestions are made with this end in view.     

The dynamics of international equity market expectations

This paper develops a noisy rational expectations model of the way in which international investors adjust their expectations of asset payoffs in a given country in response not only to public information signals but also to private information signals whose precision differs across investors. The model predicts that the perceptions of investors in one country about the future market returns in another country are related differently to realized past returns depending on their informational disadvantage relative to other investors: the greater is that informational disadvantage, the greater is the change in perception associated with returns. The predictions are confirmed by monthly survey data of institutional money managers investing in developed markets from 1995 to 2000.     

国际权威机构2006资本投资预测

普华永道:2006年行业并购将提速 据普华永道Pw C交易服务部门(Transaction Services)称,随着企业和金融买家积极利用高现金水平、低利率和众多机遇,2006年行业合并将加剧.2004年由于企业努力降低成本并奠定收入基础,交易活动骤增;2005年,交易规模扩大,涉及美国企业交易的收益达8170亿美元,较2004年前3个季度的6540亿美元增长25%,而交易量依然保持稳定.     

The state of future in international relations

This paper elaborates the state of Future in International Relations from a comparative theoretical perspective with regard to the selected methodological tools of Futures Studies. It, first, looks into the development of International Relations and Futures Studies to point out, how their contextual, conceptual and epistemological similarities and dissimilarities emerged in due course. It, then, analyses to what extent the methodological differences between selected Futures Studies techniques (e.g. forecasting, trend analysis, Delphi, backcasting, causal layered analysis and integral futures approach) intersect with the conceptual and normative differences between contemporary theories of International Relations stemming from Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Post-structuralism, Normative Theory and Critical Theory. The paper characterizes the relevant futures techniques with reference to the theories of International Relations, and scrutinizes selected futuristic narratives of International Relations from a methodological perspective. It, then, elaborates how Futures Studies and International Relations can benefit from each other’s strengths in terms of their methodologies and assumptions. The article finally explores to what extent the promises of Futures Studies techniques conjure up a convergence between different theories of International Relations.