财政赤字、金融发展与经济增长：省级面板数据实证研究

本文在概括性描述我国金融发展的典型事实并重新构造度量指标的基础上,利用省级面板数据实证分析我国金融发展的决定因素,证实地方政府的财政收支行为对我国金融发展有显著的作用,其中财政赤字对经济货币化指标具有显著的正向影响,对重新构造的金融相关比率具有显著的正向作用,对以股票资产交易额衡量的资本市场发展指标具有显著的反向影响;而金融发展指标对经济增长的效应不显著,政府的扩张性支出行为驱动的金融发展即通过提高资本积累而不是资本效率促进经济增长,但这种增长的可持续性是不容乐观的。金融体系的进一步发展有赖于深化财政体制改革和创新公共融资模式。     

浅谈当前我国金融市场运行面临的主要问题

固定资产投资增长过快、货币信贷投放过多、国际收支不平衡,是我国经济运行中一直存在的突出矛盾.当前,国内外经济环境变化的不确定性因素和潜在风险正在增加:美国次贷危机影响仍在扩大、国内通账压力持续增加、证券市场开始出现不景气等诸多"不确定性"因素,都可能直接影响我国经济的稳定和金融市场的健康发展.今年以来,我国在受到高油价、美国次贷危机影响和世界经济整体减缓的同时,出现了历年罕见的出口增速放缓以及全国规模以上工业企业增加值和实现利润的增速同比降低的经济现象;而我国长期的经常项目和资本与金融项目的"双顺差"也已经表现为经济的外部失衡;加上当前我国国内通胀压力居高不下,证券市场连续下挫导致了整个金融市场的内部失衡,我国的经济发展正面临着复杂的局面和严峻考验.本文通过对当前形势下我国金融市场面临的内部经济和外部经济"双失衡"的局面进行分析,试图寻找出适应当前形势的、切实可行的对策,以期能对促进我国金融市场的健康稳健发展有所裨益.     

失衡世界经济背景下的中国经济调整

一方面是以美国为代表的长期的经常项目和财政“双赤字”,另一方面是包括中国在内的亚洲经济体和新兴市场经济经常项目和资本项目“双顺差”,表现出的所谓全球经济失衡,既是世界经济的一个不稳定因素,又是中国经济增长的一个不可多得的机会窗口。目前,随着生产要素相对丰裕程度的变化,中国经济已经进入一个新的调整时期。如何在这个全球经济失衡的背景之下,完成中国经济从单     

国际收支失衡、经济波动与中国经济增长质量

在理论上探讨国际收支失衡与经济增长质量之间的相互关系,并运用3SLS和系统GMM方法,结合中国1982-2011年数据进行实证检验,回归结果表明中国国际收支失衡通过宏观经济稳定性影响经济增长质量的变化,国际收支失衡与经济增长质量负相关,其中经常项目收支失衡加剧了经济增长波动性,资本项目收支失衡是形成通货膨胀波动的重要因素,而且经济增长波动性也加剧了通货膨胀波动,因此调节国际收支失衡有利于促进宏观经济稳定和经济增长质量的提高。     

全球经济失衡与全球经济再平衡研究新进展

全球经济失衡是当前全球经济发展的主要特征,并对全球经济的发展造成了重要影响。全球经济失衡和全球经济再平衡引起了学术界和政策制定者的极大关注和竞相研究。本文在研究了当前全球经济失衡的特点、原因以及全球经济的再平衡等问题的基础上,认为,全球经济失衡并不是单方面因素造成的,而是多种因素共同作用的结果,因此,全球经济的再平衡也就不能仅局限于对汇率或投资—储蓄缺口某一单因素的调节,而应当从结构性因素、供给政策和要素流动、国际货币体系改革、世界各国相互协作、各种政策相互结合,各国配合来实现全球经济的再平衡。     

后危机时代世界经济失衡原因与中国参与再平衡的路径选择——基于中美贸易关系的视角

世界经济失衡是当前全球经济发展的主要特征,并对全球经济的发展造成了重要影响。后危机时代的世界经济失衡和再平衡问题引起了学术界广泛关注,由于各国有不同的利益诉求,世界经济的再平衡过程存在着不可避免的博弈与较量。贸易失衡是世界经济失衡的一个重要方面,而中国和美国分别作为世界经济中新兴市场国家和发达国家的代表,两国之间的贸易失衡问题也很显著。在世界经济再平衡的过程中,中美贸易失衡的调整以及相应的路径选择对于世界经济再平衡具有非常重要的意义。所以,在此背景下,本文基于对世界经济失衡和中美贸易关系文献的回顾,从中美贸易失衡的视角,通过运用理论分析方法研究了世界经济失衡的原因,并着眼于中国在世界经济失衡中的作用,对中国经济发展的路径提供了对策及建议。     

如何看待和应对全球经济失衡

尽管世界经济和贸易已经从复苏转向持续快速增长,并且国际金融市场总体保持稳定,但全球经济失衡也日趋严重,突出表现为国际贸易收支和国际资本流动在全球分布的不平衡。虽然迄今为止全球经济失衡的不良后果尚未显现,但如果有关国家不采取措施逐步缩小不平衡,持续扩大的全球经济失衡将势必导致国际资本流动和国际汇率关系的剧烈调整,从而引发全球金融动荡,严重威胁世界经济的稳定和增长。     

金融发展与城市化:基于政府治理差异的视角

二十世纪以来,金融发展逐渐成为世界各国关注的焦点,影响涉及到经济社会发展的各个领域,本文研究的中心是探讨金融发展对城市化进程的影响,并且针对不同的传导机制进行归类研究.通过理论剖析和文献总结,我们发现传导机制的作用发挥是依靠国家宏观调控来实现的,并且和政府治理水平密切相关,所以我们又进一步探讨是否全球范围内的不同国家的制度因素,如政府治理水平的差异,是否会对这个传导机制造成显著的影响,之后我们利用1995-2008年的120个国家的全球数据,使用有效克服金融内生性因素的面板2SLS方法进行了实证验证,我们发现这种传导机制的作用是非常显著的,并且这种显著性受制于各国的政府治理发展状况,这对我们进一步优化城市发展结构,提高城市的发展潜力,特别是金融业如何能在城市化进程中发挥更大的推动作用具有重要意义,同时对于如何加强城市金融业发展的政府监管作用也具有指导作用.     

当前国际货币体系的失衡现状

从美国开始的金融海啸全球经济影响非常大,而中国也没有幸免于难。国际货币体系失衡是造成此次危机的罪魁祸首,当前国际货币体系失衡不仅对世界经济也对中国经济有着重要的影响。本文通过分析当前国际货币体系失衡的现状及其对我国经济的影响,从而提出一系列解决问题的对策和建议。     

中国经济失衡的成因分析

本文从发展战略、金融制度、社会政策三个维度,对影响经济失衡的原因进行分析,并从中选取六个解释变量,利用向量误差修正模型(VECM)模型,实证考察了1991～2017年中国经济失衡的影响因素。研究发现:经济增长率、金融自由化(金融管制放松或解除)、美元储备份额对于中国经济失衡具有正向的影响;外商直接投资(FDI)、政府研发资助、社会保障水平对其影响为负。脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析表明,外商直接投资对中国经济失衡的影响最大。这些实证发现对于中国治理经济失衡具有重要的政策涵义。     

Reverse Causality in Global and Intra‐European Imbalances

The paper discusses global current account imbalances in the context of an asymmetric world monetary system. It identifies the USA and Germany as center countries with rising/high current account deficits (USA) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the dollar (dollar periphery) and current account deficits of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the euro or members of the euro area (euro periphery). The paper finds that changes of world current account positions are closely linked to the monetary policy decision patterns both in the centers and peripheries. Whereas in the centers current account positions are affected by monetary policies, in the peripheries exchange rate stabilization cum sterilization matters. In specific, monetary expansion in the USA as well as exchange rate stabilization and sterilization policies in the dollar periphery are found to have contributed to global imbalances.     

The tale of two international phenomena: Migration and global imbalances

Following the dynamics of globalization, international migration has increased dramatically since the 1990s. Since migration patterns affect a country’s demographic structure—which is known to have an impact on the current account—migration is likely to explain a significant part of world imbalances. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the role played by international migration in the dynamics of global imbalances. To this end, we rely on an overlapping generations model to derive the theoretical link between international migration and the current account position. Through a series of robust estimates, we empirically investigate this relationship by relying on a large panel of developed and developing countries. Our results point to substantial effects of international migration. Specifically, we show that an increase in migration augments national savings and tends to restore the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country. These effects are particularly pronounced in developing economies and are attenuated by migrants’ remittances.     

Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows*

We examine episodes of current account adjustment in industrial countries over the past 30 years. We find that they were typically associated with a sizable growth slowdown and a large exchange rate depreciation. There was no discernible change in the nature of capital flows just prior to an adjustment. Hence, adjustments may be responding to the resolution of domestic imbalances rather than being an exogenous event. We show that global developments triggered the adjustment, possibly by triggering the unwinding of the domestic imbalances. Most of the ex post adjustment of the financial account was in private sector flows, primarily by foreign investors.     

Macroeconomic Policy Making,Exchange Rate Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets

Given a series of crisis events after 2007 the discussion about the adjustment channels of current account imbalances has been revived. We examine the role of exchange rates vs macroeconomic policies as determinants of current accounts for a set of 86 mainly emerging market economies between 1990 and 2013 to identify adjustment channels for global imbalances. We find that nominal exchange rates are not the main determinant of current account positions. Instead, depending on the region, monetary and/or fiscal policies are identified as the main driving force of current accounts. For East Asia and the oil exporting countries sterilization policies, i.e. relatively tight monetary policies, are the main determinants. In contrast for many European periphery countries fiscal policy stances are at the core of current account positions. Only for the Latin American countries does the exchange rate play a significant role as determinant of current account positions.     

Integration of current account imbalances in the OECD

The Glick and Rogoff (1995) hypothesis suggests that common or global shocks do not influence current accounts of countries which are symmetric. This is tested for 37 pairs of current account imbalances out of 17 OECD countries. Using time series data that spans the pre-Global crisis period but including several sub-samples recognizing the advent of the Euro, this study shows that for nine pairs of countries common shocks do matter for current account imbalances. Results obtained from the Granger causality test do not support the presence of spillovers in some of these pairs. Therefore, this study documents some empirical evidence which departs from the Glick and Rogoff proposal.     

Reserves,Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Resilience of Global Imbalances

Reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) assets should be jointly considered for the assessment of global imbalances, hence their denomination as sovereign external assets (SEAs): both are public capital outflows from developing to developed countries, both hinder adjustment in current account surplus and deficit countries and, therefore, both contribute to sustain global imbalances. They represented 135 per cent and 50 per cent of net and gross US financing needs, respectively, in 2007. Reserves contribute 80 per cent and SWFs 20 per cent. They will go on providing resilience to the global imbalances, and the relative importance of SWFs is set to increase if commodity prices stay high.     

The impact of financial regulation on current account balances

Both global imbalances and financial market deregulation feature prominently among the potential causes of the global financial crisis, but they have been largely discussed separately. In this paper, we take a different angle and investigate the relationship between financial market regulation and current account balances, an area for which limited empirical evidence exists. We use a panel of countries over the period 1980–2010 and employ a novel empirical approach which allows us to simultaneously account for model uncertainty, current account persistence and unobserved heterogeneity. We find robust evidence that financial market regulations affect current account balances and that different aspects of these regulations can have opposing effects on the current account. In particular we find that easing bank entry barriers is negatively associated with the current account balance. In contrast, bank privatization and securities market deregulation tend to raise current account balances. Our results also highlight the importance to control for persistence and unobserved heterogeneity. Once we control for these factors, we find robust evidence for a wide range of current account theories in contrast to previous studies accounting for model uncertainty.     

Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings*

We consider the origins of global current account imbalances. We first discuss how the expansion of the US current account deficit and the decrease in global real interest rates can be reconciled with the widespread view that American expansionary fiscal policy is partly the source of current trends. We then investigate empirically the medium‐term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development. In addition to the conventional macroeconomic factors, we examine a series of environmental factors, including the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for industrial countries, the government budget balance is an important determinant of the current account balance; the budget balance coefficient is 0.10 to 0.49 depending on model specifications. These varying estimates lead us to conclude that fiscal factors might be as important as excess savings arising from East Asia.     

Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances

Global external imbalances widened persistently over the last several years and have narrowed abruptly over the course of the financial crisis. Understanding the extent to which structural or cyclical factors may have driven these patterns is important to assess the likely evolution of global imbalances going forward, as well as the potential adjustment that can be achieved through changes in policy. This paper assesses the link between structural and cyclical factors and current account balances using a panel of 94 countries from 1973 to 2008. We find that the medium‐term evolution of global external imbalances can be related in large part to structural factors including cross‐country differences in demographics, fiscal deficits, oil dependency and intensity, stage of economic development, financial market development, and institutional quality. Part of the narrowing in current account balances since the financial crisis appears to be related to various cyclical factors including changes in output growth, oil prices, and exchange rates, and may be expected to reverse alongside the economic recovery.     

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance

Global current account imbalances have recently been singled out by many as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have put significant downward pressure on world interest rates, thereby fueling a credit boom and risk taking in major advanced economies with current account deficits (the “excess saving” view). We argue that this perspective on global imbalances bears reconsideration. We highlight two conceptual problems: (i) explaining market interest rates through the saving-investment framework; and (ii) drawing inferences about a country's cross-border financing activity based on observations of net capital flows. We trace the shortcomings of this perspective to a failure to consider the distinguishing characteristics of a monetary (credit) economy. We conjecture that the main macroeconomic cause of the financial crisis was not “excess saving” but the “excess elasticity” of the international monetary and financial system.