Incorporating futures research into regional knowledge creation and management

This article focuses on future-oriented knowledge within regional innovation networks. Concrete regional tools and institutional settings aiming to enhance knowledge creation and management in such networks are needed. To enable planning for the future, there is a need for regional visionary capability. Resource-based futures research may make an important contribution in reducing the insecurity that regions face in the turbulent environment. When foresight processes are not absorbed into the regional strategy making processes, ‘black holes of regional strategy making’ come into existence, and future scenarios are built without taking into consideration the path-dependency of a region.This article attempts to reduce the gap between futures research, on the one hand, and regional knowledge and innovation management, on the other hand. It highlights the concept of self-transcending knowledge—the ability to sense the presence of potential. It then introduces a new, systemic model for knowledge creation and management in regional innovation networks. Utilising methods from futures research in creating self-transcending knowledge in a regional knowledge management system is proposed as a fruitful way of enhancing regional visionary capability. The article thus advocates combining approaches and methodologies from futures research with those of knowledge management in a novel way.     

The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience,credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.     

Foresight in the Brussels Capital Region

This paper presents results from the Iris Futures research project. The research was aimed at exploring the potential role of foresight in the development of the Brussels Capital Region and the identification of tools, capabilities and conditions for an improved application of foresight in Brussels. An overview was created of the characteristics of 60 future oriented activities and 120 organisations involved in such activities At the outset questions on organisational or institutional fragmentation and collaboration were not intended to be in the foreground of the research but over the course of the research this issue was observed to have a significant adverse impact on foresight capacity in Brussels. The case of the Brussels Capital Region demonstrates that institutional and organisational fragmentation need to be overcome for a futures oriented practice to have opportunity. De-fragmentation, bottom-up and institutionally, is both a condition for and an effect of the futures oriented practice underlying the foresight capacity of organisations.     

Understanding rural change—demography as a key to the future

The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences.Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also unstable due to migration patterns. A number of policy related questions as well as research challenges are raised as a consequence.     

Towards an Integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies

This article considers the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in futures studies. The diversified methodologies that have developed within the systems practice field over the past 25 years are examined for their potential to address concerns about the field's reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism. It is argued, though, that Integral methodology requires more than methodological pluralism: some understanding of the structures of consciousness within which methodologies are conceived and applied is needed. Drawing on the work of Dr. Susanne Cook-Greuter, capacity to understand “system” itself is explored, looking at the way that humans make sense of reality and the stages through which this sense-making develops. It is argued that systems methods and tools used with sufficient practitioner awareness of epistemological biases have an essential role to play in improving the quality of our futures perception and knowledge.     

Mental time travel in foresight processes—Cases and applications

Mental time travel can be described as a method of guiding the participants of a workshop into a picture or a whole series of pictures of the future. This should be thought of as a movie rather than static images and includes emotions. Mental time travel is still a new method in foresight processes, in generating futures, futures research or future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) in general, and is only rarely used to open up the minds of participants at the beginning of workshops so that their thinking does not remain fixed in the past or the present. Time travelling can be applied to different cases and at different stages of a foresight process (phases of strategic intelligence gathering, sense-making or even implementation), e.g. participants are also able to think disruptively in new pictures instead of just extrapolating from the past.Clinical and psychological studies do not yet exist for this kind of time travel, but first experiences from very different foresight processes are available. This paper presents the experiences gained from six national and international foresight cases, in which time travel was applied. Different ways of performing it are reported and set in the context of the specific foresight process concepts. Experiences are shared by examining the lessons learned and the pros and cons of this new method, so that the organizers of foresight processes can better assess how the method could fit their specific context, objectives, method mix and participants.     

Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: Nordic facilities management foresight

A number of studies have explored the interconnection between the foresight literature and the innovation system literature. This paper adds to these studies by investigating how theoretical elements of the innovation system approach can contribute to the design and practice of foresight processes. The paper originates in a foresight project in the Nordic facilities management sector. The goal of the foresight project was to identify the possible futures of the facilities management sector in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and, based on the findings, to establish a proposal for a common Nordic facilities management research agenda. The paper finds that three elements of the innovation system literature are of particular interest for the practice of foresight: innovation systems and context dependency, learning and user–producer interactions, and the role of knowledge and knowledge production. These elements are embedded into a simple sectoral innovation system model (including actors, knowledge flows, and the strategic environment).     

How foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of doubting

This paper defines foresight as being a mental model about the future and considers the role of foresight in shaping actions and events reflected in imperious, heroic, tragic and chaotic futures (defined within the paper). The paper contends that success in foresight is not about acquiring knowledge or using it to build pictures about the future. Rather, it is the expectations that come with such processes that cause organisational closure, and thus chaotic and tragic futures. The argument is made that firms need to doubt much more than they do.Two processes of doubting are described: the first (single loop doubting) shows how differences between expectations and perception cause doubt that (whenever the underlying mental model is sufficiently plastic) is accommodated by social processes without change. The second process, called double loop doubting, is based on genuine attempts to refute, rather than confirm, mental models about the future. The contention is that such processes would lower expectations and certainty, thereby opening the organisation and enabling mental models to be more accurate.

“I fear there can be no possible doubt about the matter”.

Jack in The Importance of Being Ernest, Oscar Wilde     

Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust,organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy

Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, the one does not automatically lead to the other. Quality of method does not ensure success, just as quality and success do not guarantee impact. This article explores the new paths for understanding evaluating of futures studies that are provided by the various articles in this special issue and sets out an agenda for next steps with regard to evaluation of futures research. The more structural and systematic evaluation can result in an increased level of trust in futures research, which may in turn lead to more future oriented strategy, policy and decision making. Therefore, evaluation should be seen as more than a burden of accountability – albeit important as accountability is – but as an investment in the credibility and impact of the profession. It may set in motion a cycle of mutual learning that will not only improve the capacity of futures-researchers but will also enhance the capacity and likeliness of decision-makers to apply insight from futures research.     

Developing urban and regional foresight: exploring capacities and identifying needs in the North West

Recent changes in the context for English governance are creating new opportunities for futures thinking at urban and regional level. Drawing on a study of key stakeholders concerned with urban and regional development, this paper presents an analysis of current approaches to future thinking amongst policy-makers in England’s North West region. The study offered an opportunity to explore attitudes to foresight and existing capacities amongst public, private and voluntary organisations, to find out best practices in different sectors, and to investigate potential gaps, constraints and needs in terms of futures thinking. The paper describes the main results from the North West study and concludes by exploring ways of enhancing the capacity for territorial foresight at urban and regional levels.     

From priority-setting to articulation of demand: Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy

The paper addresses the application of foresight to research and innovation policy and strategy. It seeks to show an evolution away from a traditional focus on broad-based technological priority setting to a much more focussed and adapted set of applications. The inherent limitations of prioritisation processes are discussed. The more limited aim of articulating specific fields is noted. Recent trends in research and innovation policy have opened new opportunities for the application of foresight. Systemic and demand-side policies require a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers. The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood.An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&I system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies. The success of demand-side measures such as cluster policies and the use of procurement or regulation to stimulate innovation is dependent upon the formation of a common vision between the supply and demand sides, opening the possibility for the application of foresight approaches. We note the emergence of a combination of corrective, disruptive and creative roles.     

Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight

This article presents the interconnected phases of a regional-foresight process in an AR perspective within the context of a complex regional dynamic of actors with distinct local and regional political presences. The analysis is based on a Norwegian case of AR on regional foresight. The article reflects upon and develops the concept of action research (AR) as it relates to regional-foresight practices in connection with regional planning strategies (policies), according to Norway's new Planning and Building Act (PBA, 2008). Both AR and regional foresight are broad terms within a number of domains, and several contributions have sought to show how these are interlinked Ramos (2006). The focus is on how AR and action researchers both contribute to the co-creation of regional and sub-regional formulation of planning by regional-foresight processes, which are driven by decision-making regional bodies. This article contributes to the understanding of how an AR strategy of ‘strategic facilitation’ may improve the overall foresight capacity of all regional actors, both in concert and as single stakeholders. Also it furthers the understanding of how an AR approach may assist in transforming the foresight practices and the strategic decision-making into a more transparent process.     

Exploring value creation from corporate-foresight activities

This paper looks at value creation from corporate futures research. Through a literature review, potential value creation is identified. This serves as guidance for an empirical investigation in which value creation is observed and linked to methods and practices. Using data from 20 case studies, three examples of value creation are discussed in detail. In addition, cross-case analysis allowed me to identify four success criteria for corporate foresight activities: (1) foresighters committed to creating value, (2) participation of internal stakeholders, (3) analysis that follows a systemic logic, and (4) methods and processes that are tailored to companies’ needs. The paper concludes with the recommendation to take a dynamic-capabilities perspective on future research into corporate foresight.     

What foresight! Understanding Australia's housing future

Futures analysis has been little used to inform housing policy debate, despite the fact that historical precedent is becoming increasingly limited as a guide for policy direction. This paper examines the potential utility of ‘strategic foresight’ in considering possible housing futures for Australia. It examines the particular foresight methods employed, and processes used, to develop possible housing futures in the year 2025 and their policy implications. The paper concludes that foresight analysis, although not without its problems, creates the opportunity to move beyond current thinking and ‘path dependent’ policy parameters, enabling discussion of housing futures in a way that prompts critical discussion of the institutional arrangements and policies that shape housing policy in the present.     

Exploring the future with complexity science: The emerging models

The ‘futures field’ can be divided into five major segments or futurist schools, together with their complementary but differing research methodologies and time horizons. These are generally subsumed under the terms ‘futures research’, ‘futures studies’ and ‘foresight’. Complexity science applications are outlined for each of the schools, and these provide evolving theories for futures thinking. (1) Environmental and geosciences treat the Earth and its various components as typical out-of-equilibrium systems with dissipative processes. (2) Infrastructure and socio-technological systems emerge through the diffusion of investment capital, with the endogenous transformation of the urban system. (3) Social, political and economic sciences are being reshaped away from the notion of economic equilibrium, and describe social emergence by means of agent-based models. (4) Human life, mind and information sciences are evolving with the development of complexity models in neuroscience, immune systems, epidemic modelling, social media technologies and artificial intelligence. (5) Business and management science involves examining the viability of successfully undertaking transactions in a complex adaptive system, in which the systemic structure evolves over time. Geographical information systems are integrated with agent-based modelling for corporate foresight.     

Designing action based scenarios

Are scenarios carrying actors’ projects or on the contrary are they disconnected from action? To answer this question, the paper first outlines how action and actors’ projects structure foresight foundations. Such a perspective suggests to design scenarios as action processes to anticipate new rules to be played in prospective futures. In a second part, the results of two action research processes are discussed to analyse the interaction between actors’ projects and scenarios. These two case studies exert that actors have to navigate through rule shifts rather than to oppose alternative scenarios. To conclude, further research is discussed to introduce individual actions in scenarios, as well as the design of relations of dominance between actors in the analysis of rule shifts.     

Prediction markets for foresight

To navigate turbulent business environments, organizations have to develop foresight capacities that enable them to anticipate probable futures, respond rapidly to emerging changes, and support future oriented action. However, there are remaining barriers that impede a wider implementation of foresight. In particular, the necessities to deal with the future, anticipate change, enhance participation and reduce costs and complexity call for new methods to improve current foresight activities. In this paper, we introduce prediction markets to the field of foresight. Prediction markets are a structured approach to collect and aggregate information from groups and have recently gained attention in forecasting. Prediction markets go beyond simple forecasting and can contribute to foresight by providing advantages in terms of continuous and real-time information aggregation, motivation of participation and information revelation as well as cost-efficiency and scalability. We suggest four promising fields of application for prediction markets to enhance foresight: (1) continuous forecasting and environmental scanning, (2) combining with deliberative approaches, (3) continuous idea generation and (4) expert identification. We conclude by considering prediction markets as a nascent and promising method for foresight and advocate for further research.     

股指期货与股指期权套期保值组合的Delta中性动态模拟——基于沪深300股指期货仿真交易的分析

沪深300股指期货的推出,在为市场提供套保工具和流动性的同时,也带来新的风险。本文运用同一指数的股指期权与股指期货组成多种动态套期保值组合,分析股指期货的风险对冲策略。结果表明所构造的组合都能为股指期货提供有效的套期保值;不论多头股指期货还是空头股指期货,保护性策略的风险控制能力更强。