越南金融困局的成因及对中国的警示

2008年5月,越南主要经济指标均超过了安全警戒线,金融市场急剧动荡。越南片面追求经济增长的经济政策导向难辞其咎：政府巨额的投资导致财政赤字;大规模的设备进口导致贸易赤字;过于迷信外资作用,金融开放过快;货币政策过于宽松;对资产价格泡沫危害认识不足;在出现通胀苗头时犹犹豫豫,错失最好的调控时机。借鉴越南教训,中国应严防通胀、防止境外热钱、对人民币升值采取谨慎态度、防止股市大起大落。     

越南爆发金融动荡 全球货币政策转向

2008年5月和6月,越南爆发金融动荡,汇市、股市,楼市全面暴跌,主要原因是通货膨胀失去控制,资产价格泡沫破裂、国际热钱获利后迅速撤离、贸易与财政赤字严重、外汇储备不足、汇率贬值预期较强等.越南金融动荡的爆发对新兴市场国家敲响了警钟.在通胀压力加大,国际货币体系紊乱和局部金融动荡的背景下,全球货币政策由宽松向紧缩转变.     

越南金融动荡的原因及启示

近来越南金融动荡引起了国内政府、企业和学术界的极大关注。究其发生原因,既有内因,如越南国内高企的通货膨胀水平、大量外资流入后监管不力、越南政府不合理的货币政策及汇率政策等,也有外因,如美国次贷危机的延续及美元的贬值等。尽管中越经济有较大差异,但有些地方是相似的,如两国政府都致力于经济的较快增长,都面临较大的通胀压力,都有大量热钱流入等。我国要警惕出现类似的金融动荡。     

韩国会成为下一个越南？

最近一段,时间以来,越南经济形势一直处于国际社会的高度关注之中。亚洲地区的其他国家也同样面临着高通胀和贸易逆差的困扰。越南的“警笛”鸣响之后,恐慌情绪开始迅速在亚洲范围内蔓延,掀起新一轮“亚洲金融危机”的疑云。越南的金融动荡会不会引发多米诺骨牌效应？谁将会步其后尘,成为“下一个越南”？     

“和谐金融”构建的设想与措施

金融活动已日益广泛地参与到社会经济生活的各个方面,在调节、促进、反映和监督经济活动和社会发展中的作用越来越突出,也成为构建社会主义和谐社会不可或缺的保障。特别是自去年开始一段时间以来,美国次贷危机、越南经济动荡、金球性通胀、国际大宗商品价格持续上涨等外围不稳定、不可测风险因素增多,而国内宏观经济、金融政策调控的力度、     

中国：不确定性下宏观政策更需平衡与灵活

今年经济关键词：不确定性 国际方面，美国次贷危机形势恶化程度和波及范围超出爆发时市场预期，美欧等发达国家通胀前景捉摸不定，以原油为代表的大宗商品价格屡破历史高位，以越南为代表的若干新兴市场国家出现明显金融动荡……     

华尔街金融危机的根源与反思

美国次贷危机起源于政府过于宽松的货币政策所导致的房地产市场泡沫,而金融市场上的放贷机构、投资银行、保险等机构追逐私利,利用杠杆工具大量介入低质量房贷及其衍生产品等高风险市场,这两方面结合导致了房地产泡沫破灭后全球范围内的金融动荡。这启示国内决策者需要摒弃短期化行为,做到防止房地产泡沫和经济增长之间的平衡。     

越南金融震荡的成因、发展趋势与启示

2008年5月,越南出现了通胀严重、越南盾贬值、股市和房市价格持续暴跌等金融震荡现象。本文通过分析越南此次金融震荡的表现、成因、发展趋势,以及对周边国家（地区）经济金融的影响,针对性地提出了提高我国宏观调控的科学性和有效性的政策建议,以避免类似震荡影响和冲击我国经济金融的稳定与安全。     

麦金农：中国面临输入性通胀的难题

当代金融发展和金融压抑理论的奠基人、斯坦福大学经济系教授罗纳德·麦金农在”上海论坛2011“专题学术活动上表示．当下中国面临的是输入性通胀．提高准备金率或发国债都不能从根本上控制通胀势头。他指出．中国的通胀实际上是由美国政府的决策所导致,中国政府很难从根本上解决这个问题。美国政府将短期借款利率定为接近于零．同时人民币又面临升值压力,热钱就会涌入中国．中国的央行不得不买入美元以防止人民币过快升值．但美元又是基准货币,这样的举措崩会导致通胀的产生。     

越南金融动荡影响广西的路径及效应分析

越南目前发生的金融动荡,已引起国际社会的担忧,其危机将在多大程度上影响扩散到周边国家甚至全世界,倍受多方关注。广西作为中同和东盟合作交流的桥头堡,和越南有着紧密的经济联系,特别是边境地区和越南有着较强的经济共生关系,越南危机的传染效应将通过贸易、投资、金融等渠道向广西扩散,在一定程度上对广西的经济和企业以及居民产生影响。     

以区域金融合作缓解越南金融供给缺口的实证分析

越南作为劳动力资源丰富的发展中国家,近年来经济增长迅速,需要进行大规模基础设施建设和对外贸易投资,并承接大量的来自发达地区的产业转移,金融需求日益旺盛,金融市场却并未同步跟进,金融供给存在较大缺口。本文从越南资金供给和金融服务供给的现状分析出发,结合这些过程中越南面临的巨大的资金和金融服务需求缺口,提出以拓宽政策性金融服务领域、构建区域内跨国金融体系、推进人民币区域化等方式促进越南金融供给。     

Financial performances,entrepreneurial factors and coping strategy to survive in the COVID-19 pandemic: case of Vietnam

Vietnam has been one of a few countries that successfully contained the COVID-19 pandemic. However, aggressive measurements against the pandemic were at the expense of economic activities and companies’ financial performances. This cross-sectional study uses a survey of 672 companies in Vietnam and the logistic regression model to explore companies’ coping strategy choices based on their degree of financial distress, companies’ profiles, entrepreneurial factors, and the interactions between them. The results suggest that companies predominantly selected cost-cutting strategies to deal with the economic shutdown. However, the interactions between financial and entrepreneurial factors could significantly increase the likelihood of selecting growth-focused strategies. Besides, when facing a global pandemic such as COVID-19, managers’ perceptions about the spillover effects of global risks were much more impactful than local risks on companies’ coping strategy selections. This paper can help to inform managers to better deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak.     

Financial turbulence,systemic risk and the predictability of stock market volatility

This paper adds a novel perspective to the literature by exploring the predictive performance of two relatively unexplored indicators of financial conditions, i.e. financial turbulence and systemic risk, over stock market volatility using a sample of seven emerging and advanced economies. The two financial indicators that we utilize in our predictive setting provide a unique perspective on market conditions, as they relate directly to portfolio performance metrics from both volatility and co-movement perspectives and, unlike other macro-financial indicators of uncertainty, or risk, can be integrated into diversification models within forecasting and portfolio design settings. Since the data for the two predictors are available at a weekly frequency, and our focus is to produce forecasts at the daily frequency, we use the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) approach. The results suggest that incorporating the two financial indicators (singly and jointly) indeed improves the out-of-sample predictive performance of stock market volatility models over both the short and long horizons. We observe that the financial turbulence indicator that captures asset price deviations from historical patterns does a better job when it comes to the out-of-sample prediction of future returns compared with the measure of systemic risk, captured by the absorption ratio. The outperformance of the financial turbulence indicator implies that unusual deviations in not only asset returns, but also in correlation patterns play a role in the persistence of return volatility. Overall, the findings provide an interesting opening for portfolio design purposes, in that financial indicators, which are directly associated with portfolio diversification performance metrics, can also be utilized for forecasting purposes, with significant implications for dynamic portfolio allocation strategies.     

新冠肺炎疫情、金融市场震荡与金融危机

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延后,美国等国家金融市场出现大幅度震荡,历史罕见。金融市场震荡是疫情影响投资者信心,金融市场本身的风险需要释放,以及经济基本面悲观预期等因素共同作用的结果。目前来看,疫情对实体经济造成冲击,疫情应对情况也在很大程度上决定了金融市场震荡是否演化为全球金融危机,国外金融市场震荡对国内金融市场的传导需要审慎理性处理。     

The theoretical underpinnings of government policy,turbulence and performance in the service sector: a conceptual framework

The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework to study the relationship between host country government policy, market and technological turbulence, competitive intensity and export marketing performance in the financial services sector using Dunning’s (J Int Bus Stud 11(1): 9–31, 1980) eclectic paradigm. A literature review is used to define and set out the main conceptual framework and propositions for further research. A better understanding of the factors that contribute to export marketing performance success in the financial services sector is provided. The managerial implications of such a study would be to provide important knowledge or understanding for international business practitioners in the financial services sector. Such a study could also confirm the role that host country governments play in the performance of export ventures in the financial services sector and could make financial services exporters aware of the significance of environmental turbulence and its impact in the global market place.     

选择人民币作为广西对越南蔗糖贸易结算货币的探讨

改革开放以来,广西与越南的贸易量逐年攀升.随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立,广西与越南的经济和金融往来关系将进一步得到提升,为两地具有实力的企业（集团）发挥资金和技术等比较优势,扩大市场占有率,取得区域贸易的主动权和定价权,并在两地的贸易中选择本币作为主要结算货币奠定坚实的基础.本文以广西与越南蔗糖贸易为视角,分析广西对越蔗糖贸易的优势和存在问题,提出推动在广西与越南蔗糖贸易中选择人民币作为主要结算货币的意见和建议.     

Economics as energy framework: Complexity,turbulence, financial crises,and protectionism

This paper presents a framework for thinking about economic growth, trade, and capital flows viewed as transformations of current and vintage solar energy, stored in the form of natural resources, human capital, physical capital and technology described by the laws of thermodynamics. Recent developments in nonequilibrium thermodynamics (NET) show how efficient global capital markets and high-speed communications networks accelerate energy flow and growth but also create turbulence, financial crisis, protectionism and conflict. The paper discusses the role that NET can play in helping us understand stock market bubbles and financial crises.     

A tale of two cities: Economic development,corporate governance and firm value in Vietnam

This study examines the moderating effect of financial and economic development on the relation between corporate governance and firm value in Vietnam, which has two exchanges, one located in the business center in the South, and the other located in the center of government in the North. This unique setting allows an investigation of corporate governance dynamics controlling for legal jurisdiction. The results show a positive relation between corporate governance and firm value in Ho Chi Minh City but not in Hanoi. The finding suggests that financial and economic development play critical roles in enhancing the benefits of corporate governance in emerging markets.     

Financial architecture, systemic risk, and universal banking

Consolidation has been a fact of life in the wholesale financial services sector, resulting in fundamental change in the financial architecture and public exposure to systemic risk. The underlying drivers include advances in transactions and information technologies, regulatory changes, geographic shifts in growth opportunities, and the rapid evolution of client requirements, which in combination have obliged financial firms to rethink their roles as intermediaries. Moreover, financial sector reconfiguration has accelerated as a result of the global market turbulence that began in 2007, with governments either forcing or encouraging combinations of stronger and weaker financial firms in an effort to stem the crisis and improve systemic robustness. In the process, financial firms that are “systemic” in nature and had a major role in creating the crisis have come out of it with even larger market shares and greater systemic importance. Given the episodic socialization of risk in the form of widespread use of public guarantees to firms judged too big or too interconnected to be allowed to fail, the role of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) is central to the financial architecture and the public interest going forward. This survey paper considers the sources of systemic gains, losses and risks associated with SIFIs in historical context, in the theoretical and empirical literature, and in public policy discussions—i.e., what is gained and what is lost as a result of the available policy options to deal the dominant role of SIFIs in the financial architecture?     

危机前的美国负债型经济增长模式

本轮金融危机爆发前,美国债务增加与经济增长并存。经济增长的重要动力是资产价格泡沫下的过度信贷消费,巨大的消费使得公、私储蓄率系统性下降,在投资率上升的情况下造成其经常项目赤字,而美元本位给了美国用资本项目顺差来平衡经常项目赤字的便利,华尔街的金融衍生债券成为填平美国经常项目赤字的重要手段。当双赤字状态无法延续时,美国以危机形式和货币贬值形式抖落其负债包袱。牙买加体系下的＂国际经济双循环＂结构注定危机的发展是发散而非收敛的。这种充分利用美元本位机制,靠信贷促进消费、靠消费带动经济增长的消费驱动型经济增长模式走到了极端,到了不可持续的程度,应尽快对这种经济增长模式和国际收支格局进行调整。