现代服务业经济先行指标构建——基于江苏省1991-2011年数据实证分析

国家要实现现代化,需要区域服务业率先现代化,为此,针对经济先行指标的研究是掌握现代服务业发展的指南。文章运用先行性指标体系构建原理,结合现代服务业特征和统计数据,运用时差相关分析和K-L信息量方法对指标进行筛选,通过计量经济学检验,最后制作扩散指数进行预测和分析,建立江苏现代服务业经济预测分析先行指标体系,并选取1991-2011年统计数据中10类主要因素对江苏省现代服务业的影响进行了实证分析。     

基于DEA的网络出版流程效率评价研究

文章使用DEA方法,以网络出版流程的完整建设、效率建设和其他建设的投入为输入指标,以对网络出版商的经济效益影响、对网络出版物的影响和社会效益三方面为输出指标,对网络出版流程的效率进行评价。通过评价结果,判断并得知目前网络出版流程的现状,发现存在的问题,寻找出现这种问题的原因,最终寻找解决措施。     

CAN LEADING BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS PREDICT THE DIRECTION OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN COMMERCIAL SHARE PRICE INDEX?

Leading indicators are a popular way to predict turning points in the business cycle. However, since the lead time of these indicators differ, those with a longer lead could potentially also be used to predict turning points in other leading indicators. This paper empirically explores the viability of using leading indicators to predict the turning points of an index of commercial shares on the JSE Securities Exchange. Although share prices are leading the business cycle, other leading indicators that lead the business cycle by a longer period should lead share prices and, therefore, could potentially be useful in predicting the direction of share price movements. The objective of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of different leading indicators in leading the commercial share price index and in predicting turning points in the commercial share price index. In addition, a multivariate logit model is developed and estimated using these leading indicators in an attempt to improve the accuracy of forecasting the direction of the commercial share index.     

Rapid reconnaissance for development administration: Mapping and moulding organizational landscapes

Recent discussion of rapid rural appraisal methods suffers from three weaknesses: a lack of attention to the situational sensitivity of indicators used; a lack of attention to the organization and management dimension of rural development; and a lack of attention to the fact that an objective of such exercises should be to enhance local capacity rather than just to inform outsiders. This essay examines the contextual nature of proxies, discusses six methods and two experiences relating to organizational reconnaissance, and suggests that the need for participatory approaches is a strength rather than a weakness of these methods.     

战略型人力资源管理的实施途径及应用研究

本文从"战略型人力资源管理"的内涵出发,通过各种管理模式的全面对比分析找出该模式的基本特征,并以此为基础提出了向"战略型人力资源管理"转变的"4S实施模型",即领导认同(Supervisor)、结构重组(Structure)、方式调整(Style)和技能支持(Skill)。最后,结合国内的实际情况,对我国企事业如何应用"战略型人力资源管理"提出了一些可行性建议。     

大学英语课堂教学中的协商互动研究

从心理语言学的互动理论和人本主义的理论出发,研究大学课堂话语中协商互动和非协商互动的频次;意义协商、形式协商和内容协商的分布;教师发起协商和学生发起协商的频次;各类协商与课堂活动的关系等,可以看出大学英语课堂有待改进的地方,运用协商互动教学对课堂教学具有很强的指导意义。     

Methods for forecasting poverty levels inclusive of the disadvantaged

The paper discusses new methods for evaluating the incomes of disadvantaged groups that essentially employ the translation of a lognormal distribution of personal incomes. Some indicators of income polarization are proposed as a supplement to the Gini index and the other indicators of income dispersion currently in use. The proposed and conventional indicators and the poverty rate are calculated on the basis of 2007 statistics. Their behavior is investigated in relation to the amount of translation.     

Rapid growth and changing economic structure: The expenditure side story and its implications for China

The purpose of this essay has not been to provide China with a detailed list of all of the things that the country must do to maintain a high growth rate. The purpose of this essay instead has been to analyze some of the most basic choices that China must make going forward, choices that are not yet fully understood either by government or private analysts. China has a very unusual economic structure at least on the aggregate demand side and that creates special challenges that other countries have not had to face to the same degree. How well China handles these challenges will determine whether it will continue to progress rapidly to middle income status and beyond.     

中国,新形势下如何应对反倾销

反倾销这种“合法”的贸易保护措施已成为一些国家实施歧视性贸易壁垒的重要形式,文章在分析我国面临的反倾销严峻形势、国外对华反倾销原因的基础上,提出了我国政府及企业的应对措施。     

城市旅游咨询中心游客满意度及影响因子研究——以北京旅游咨询中心为例

本文以北京旅游咨询中心为例,研究影响游客对旅游咨询中心的满意度。通过因子分析法识别出3个主要因子,按影响程度从大到小依次为人员素质、服务内容和便利性,其中人员素质和服务内容对满意度有显著性影响。研究发现,游客对咨询中心总体满意度较高。满意度随学历呈倒U型,高中左右学历的游客评价最高,本地游客满意度低于外地游客。最后,提出了加强咨询中心软件建设和自我营销的建议。     

珠海市跨境电商产业培育政策评价研究

为了研究珠海的跨境电商产业政策的效果,本文利用文本挖掘与PMC分析方法,选取珠海市跨境电商7项典型支持政策,建立13项一级指标和60项二级指标,对政策进行评价,结果显示:1项跨境电商政策评价为完美,2项评价为优秀,其余4项为可接受。就一级指标分项来看,加大资金投入、推进对外贸易发展、提高海关便利、作用对象和促进产业集聚方面表现较好,其他方面有待改进。结合珠海跨境电商政策与珠海实际情况,发现珠海在发展跨境电商方面存在四个主要问题,分别是过分注重资金投入、对跨境电商产业链认识不足、对跨境电商产业支持对象认识不清、跨境电商法律治理能力重视不够等问题,并针对上述四个问题,提出解决对策,期望为珠海跨境电商产业的进一步发展提供政策的改进与完善对策。     

Tendencies towards the spatial concentration of the Russian banking sector

This article analyzes the empirically established peculiarities and tendencies of the spatial development of the Russian banking sector in 2001–2011. On the basis of the statistical data provided by the Bank of Russia and some other banks and their branches (taking into consideration the exterritoriality of the latter), the dynamics of a number of indicators is determined; those indicators characterize the extent and forms of market competition between commercial banks all over the country and in federal districts. The obtained results are compared with the macroeconomic indicators from the corresponding regions.     

对构筑土地区分使用权法律制度的思考

土地资源是许多自然资源得以存在的基础.如何协调土地与其他自然资源的关系,促进各种资源的可持续发展已成为法律工作者乃至全社会普遍关注的问题.借鉴建筑物区分所有权制度提出建立土地区分使用权制度.以使土地及相关资源权责明晰,各种资源权利和谐地衔接和配合,最终达到对自然资源的合理有效配置.     

Innovations for reaching the green sustainable development goals –where will they come from?

Reaching the sustainable development goals needs innovations. This paper addresses the dynamics of green energy and resource efficiency innovations, and looks at the positioning of countries from the North and emerging economies. We use indicators for both general innovation capabilities and specific green technology capabilities. Data on general innovation capabilities reveal that the traditional OECD countries, by and large, still possess advantages compared to Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs). Literature and Patent indicators reveal that the innovation dynamics are particularly high for publications. Literature and exports indicators reveal that the South has been catching up substantially. With regard to patents, some countries of the South are catching up, but the North is still cleary leading. A detailed analysis of co-patenting and country-to-country trade data reveals a more differentiated picture: Leading countries from Europe such as Germany as still specializing on serving the markets of traditional OECD countries. Japan and Korea are very reluctant with regard to co-patenting, but specialize in exporting to China. South-South trade in green technologies is the fastest growing market segment. However, countries of the South are pursuing a differentiated strategy: Mexico is highly integrated into the US economy. Singapore and South Korea have been catching up and provide technologies especially for China. China itself is following a double strategy, with absorbing technology from the North in order to compete on markets of the North on the one hand, but increasingly specializing on becoming lead supplier for countries of the South on the other hand. The other technology providers from the South are mainly specializing in supplying other countries from the South. Thus, a segmentation of the market is likely, with green sustainability innovations in the South more likely originating in the South as well, and China being an important country to adapt knowledge from the North to the needs of the South.     

A poverty indicator system for local government

This article looks at the implications of using indicators (such as poverty levels, housing levels, access to services, employment rates, etc.) as part of a democratic and accountable process of local governance. It is argued that underlying the advocacy of particular indicators of poverty are different models of poverty and of governance. Some popular schools of thought on poverty are examined in terms of both models and measurement (indicators). A framework is proposed for developing indicators, and a set of housing indicators inspired by the United Nations' Urban Indicators Programme is considered using this framework. It is suggested that the current approach to developing indicators in South Africa is not integrated or coherent because it lacks grounding in an explicit and defensible model of poverty.     

基于经济-环境基尼系数的区域产业结构评价研究

通过衍生基尼系数内涵,以资源配置公平性为角度,构建评价区域产业结构的经济-环境基尼系数准则。且以四川省为例,计算并评价四川省21个行政区产业结构现状。结果表明川东和川南的经济-环境基尼系数普遍低于其它地区,而经济欠发达的攀西和川西北地区产业结构合理性相对较差;同时提出绿色GDP贡献度分析引起产业结构失衡的不公平因子,其主要集中于金属冶炼及压延加工、造纸及纸制品、煤炭开采和洗选以及化工相关行业。     

基于绩效和社会福利的公司治理实证研究

本文从公司绩效和社会福利两个方面,对2010年不同性质12个行业的国内上市公司进行比较分析,发现国有企业的经营收入、资产和市场份额都要高于私有企业;在公司绩效指标上,不同行业不同指标衡量下比较结果不同;在社会福利指标上,大部分行业中国有企业均大于私有企业。如以盈利能力来衡量企业绩效,则国有企业和混合企业相对于私有企业会降低企业的绩效,表明私有企业更加关注绩效;如果以社会福利来衡量公司绩效,则国有企业和混合企业相对于私有企业会提高企业的绩效。     

Energy intensity and energy efficiency of the Russian economy: an analysis and forecast

The energy intensity indices of the Russian GDP are presented in a form that allows comparison with similar indicators of other countries. The forecast shows that the energy efficiency of the Russian economy will be approaching that of Canada but will still remain significantly lower by 2010.     

固定化生物活性碳对微污染饮用水的深度处理

目前,饮用水水源污染已成为全球范围的主要环境问题之一,而常规水处理工艺已经难以应对当前严重的水体微污染问题.通过对常规启动的固定化生物活性碳(IBAC)、非常规启动的固定化生物活性碳(IBAC新)和普通活性碳(GAC)对TOC、UV254、浊度、氨氮、亚硝酸盐氮等指标的处理效果的比较,得出IBAC无论在净化效果和运行稳定程度上都优于另两个碳柱.     

Science and technology indicators and socio-economic development

This paper examines the use of science and technology indicators and their relevance for the planning and evaluation of socio-economic progress. It is suggested that currently available science and technology statistics are far from being suitable for demonstrating the contribution of science and technology to development. An attempt is made to define indigenous technological capacity in terms of its components as well as in relation to national development objectives. It is proposed to look for indicators within a framework of objective-related elements of technological capacity on the one hand, and the factors which shape these elements on the other.