Latin America and the Great War: A preliminary survey of developments in Chile,Peru, Argentina and Brazil

In this paper we present some preliminary ideas on a comparative study of the economic and social effects of World War I on Latin America. We argue that this issue has generally been conceived too narrowly, and that the events of the war years have much to tell us about the nature of capitalist development in the region. We begin by outlining some of the major external factors which influenced the course of economic change in the years before 1914. The initial impact of the war is then considered, particularly with regard to finance, trade and social dislocation. Finally, we briefly examine similar topics during the remaining war years. We conclude by arguing that the war did not provide an opportunity to alter the course of economic growth, but tended to highlight the weaknesses and magnify the contradictions of Latin America's brand of capitalist development.     

Aspects of industrial financing in Denmark 1840–1914

Abstract

The period of time studied in the present dissertation, viz. from 1840 to 1914, can be characterised as a period of considerable economic growth in Denmark. Moreover it was a period during which a series of innovations of a technical and economic nature occurred, including for example an accelerated expansion of the communication and transport systems and,the establishement and enlargement of the institutional capital market. These factors, in conjunction with the notable industrial growth and advances occurring during the period, have been responsible for the attention hitherto focused upon this era by students of industrial history as being one when some kind of industrial revolution took place in Denmark. Although there are divergent opinions concerning the scope and detailed timing of this revolution, scholars participating in the debate have up to now been united in the view that the period was indeed marked by a considerable degree of industrial growth.     

Big push or big grab? Railways,government activism,and export growth in Latin America, 1865–1913

Railways were one of the main engines of the Latin American trade boom before 1914. Railway construction often required financial support from local governments, which depended on their fiscal capacity. However, since the main government revenues were trade‐related, this generated a two‐way feedback between government revenues and railways, with a potential for multiple equilibria. The empirical tests in this article support the hypothesis of such a positive two‐way relationship. The main implication of our analysis is that the build‐up of state capacity was a necessary condition for railway expansion and also, to a large extent, for export expansion in Latin America during the first globalization.     

Changes in world trade

Summary In the last twenty years world trade has displayed not only a rapid growth rate but also considerable changes in composition of goods and regional structure. In particular the trade in industrial products has strongly increased in both absolute and relative terms. Intra-industry trade has also played an important part in this. Trade policy and regional industrialization are the principal factors explaining the latter phenomenon.The relatively rapid increase in the trade in industrial products in respect of the world production of these goods proves to be a recent phenomenon, which did not occur before 1914. The causes that may be adduced for this — rapid economic growth, lowering of trade barriers and regional economic integration — will probably no longer occur in the near future. The possibility of a slower growth rate for world trade thus seems considerable.The figures for the tables were collected by H. van Harten, econ. cand., and by H. Hoytink, econ. cand., to whom I should like to express my gratitude.     

Towards an Historical Model of Services Innovation: The Case of the Insurance Industry, 1700–1914

There has been a recent shift in the historiography of the modern British economy towards an emphasis on the success of the service sector. This article examines one criterion of success, namely innovation, in British insurance between 1700 and 1914. Factors determining innovation are surveyed and comparisons drawn with European insurance. The relevance of existing models of industrial innovation is challenged and a new model is constructed for insurance. This model suggests that insurance innovation ran broadly counter-cyclical to innovation in industry during this period, and was relatively undynamic. The article concludes by speculating about the relationship between industrial growth, liquidity constraints, and innovation in insurance.     

Infant mortality decline in rural and urban Bavaria: fertility,economic transformation,infant care,and inequality in Bavaria and Munich, 1825–1910†

During most of the nineteenth century, Bavaria was notorious for infant mortality rates that were among the highest in Europe. After 1870, infant mortality in Bavaria began a sustained decline. This decline, which was impressive in urban areas, was even more dramatic in Bavaria's capital, Munich. From a peak of 40 deaths per 100 births in the 1860s, infant mortality had fallen two‐thirds by 1914. This article examines the causes of infant mortality in rural and urban districts of Bavaria from 1880 to 1910 and in Munich from 1825 up to shortly before the First World War. In rural Bavaria, structural change in agriculture lowered infant mortality, even as stark differences in infant survival driven by income gaps and deficient infant care remained. In urban areas, high fertility was strongly associated with high infant mortality. Individual‐level data from Munich reveal that infant care, fertility, and incomes mattered. Even prior to industrialization, occupational status influenced infant survival. Munich's growth into a leading industrial centre after 1875 apparently widened the gap between rich and poor. Families at the top of the occupational distribution and couples able to acquire real property saw the steepest declines in infant mortality. The poorest one‐third without property saw little improvement.     

城镇化中的社会保障制度建设：来自拉美国家的教训

拉美国家在历史上出现过经济高速增长和快速城市化的阶段,但是经济增长并没有解决贫困现象和缩小收入差距,出现了“增长性贫困”现象,而收入悬殊限制了经济的进一步增长。社保制度存在缺陷是导致拉美国家增长性贫困的主要原因之一：社保制度严重滞后于城市化进程,住房和就业困难,非正式就业较为普遍;养老保险计划的覆盖面较低,收入再分配难以进行;养老金管理成本居高不下,导致养老保险扩面难;社会保险与社会救助的比重失调,中产阶级成为社会保障制度的最大受益者;社保和教育机会的缺失,造成代际贫困的恶性循环。拉美国家这些教训为我国社保制度的完善提供了很好的借鉴。     

The diffusion and impact of the corporation in 1910

With new and comprehensive data on the international spread of listed and unlisted corporations before the First World War, this article shows the prominence of common law and Scandinavian civil law in the process. This association is interpreted as demonstrating the strong contribution of liberal (laissez‐faire) industrial stances. The findings confirm an extended version of Rajan and Zingales's hypothesis that trade and capital openness are necessary for companies to flourish. Despite the possibilities that companies were created for fraud and exploitation, countries using the corporate form more extensively before 1914 had higher GDP per capita. Through this process, the benefit of imperialism extended to British dominions, but not much, if at all, to British dependent colonies.     

The delicate balance for jointly pursuing economic growth in Latin America and China

This paper examines the sources of economic growth for a group of Latin American countries in relation to their export performance in China. The analytical framework is based on an extended normalized quadratic profit function. The ensuing econometric results confirm that a favorable export record with China represents a positive source of growth for Latin America. However, it also creates long-run dependability conditions in terms of reduced prices and thinner profits that weaken its growth capacity. Latin American countries must seek product diversification away from their current commodity base and aggressively climb up the value chain to remain competitive worldwide.

Managerial Relevance: identify the sources of economic growth for a group of Latin American countries in relation to their export performance in China; the weakness of this economic growth model; how to seek product diversification away from their current commodity base with emphasis on value chain.     

Factor prices and induced technical change in the industrial revolution

Using historical data for the 1700–1914 period, this paper analyses the nature and direction of technical change in Britain. The evidence in this paper indicates that, over this long period, labour-saving technology adoption was a major response to changes in relative factor prices, thus supporting the hypothesis that ‘induced innovation’ was a major driver of technical change during the British industrial revolution. Labour saving was made possible and sustained by capital-augmenting and energy-augmenting technical change coupled with continuous capital accumulation and abundant energy supplies. This process placed the British economy on a higher capital–labour ratio equilibrium, and was the primary force driving sustained productivity growth, which further raised wages and living standards.     

Measuring differential forest outcomes: A tale of two countries

This paper empirically analyzes the growth/deforestation trajectories of El Salvador and Puerto Rico, two Latin American tropical developing countries which have witnessed widely different economic and forest scenarios since the early 1960s. Although both countries began the period with relatively abundant forest resources and similar levels of development, only Puerto Rico witnessed an increase in forest cover during this period. After briefly discussing each country's respective socioeconomic and land use changes, the paper empirically measures possible factors mediating these different deforestation outcomes. Empirical results presented here suggest that Puerto Rico's forest success has depended significantly on its rapid economic growth and development, in particular, its high levels of industrialization, social welfare provision, and domestic investment. Having successfully avoided the scarcity-induced forms of forest exploitation that have destroyed El Salvador's forests, Puerto Rico must now devote the considerable resources generated by this growth to protecting its forest cover from the negative effects of unrestricted urban and industrial development.     

新疆区域创新能力与产业结构升级对区域经济增长的影响研究——基于VAR模型

西部大开发以来,新疆的产业结构升级速度和区域创新能力逐步提高,经济增长也实现了迅速发展。基于新疆2000—2020年的产业结构升级、区域创新能力、经济增长的相关数据,运用Eviews9.0软件做VAR模型,检验平稳性,做脉冲响应和方差分解。根据VAR模型估计结果发现,新疆区域创新能力与产业结构升级对新疆经济增长的影响显著,但依然存在着一些产业结构不合理性问题。在此模型结果的基础上围绕区域创新能力和产业结构升级提出对策与建议。     

Patenting and Early Industrialization in Norway, 1860–1914. Was there a Linkage?

Abstract

The Norwegian patent system was formally established in 1839. For many years the interest in the patent institution and in patenting was moderate. The first real increase in patenting occurred in the 1870s and 80s. The paper will examine and analyse the development in patenting, and the patent institution (legislation, administration) from about this period until 1914. An explicit focus of the analysis is the relationship between patenting and industrialization. There has been an issue among Norwegian economic historians if or when there was an industrial breakthrough in Norway. So far, patents, patent policy and the role of the patent institution have not been related to this question. This paper will therefore investigate in which way the system was developed to stimulate modernization and industrialization.     

Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council

Latin America's economies have made tremendous improvements in recent years. Following the lost decade of the 1980s, economic growth has resumed. But the fruits of this progress remain to be consolidated. The political consensus supporting reform is fragile, and the economies of the region are still susceptible to destabilizing shocks, as recent events have underscored. Even well-devised economic policy strategies can be thrown off course by disturbances. This article proposes an institutional reform—a National Fiscal Council—designed to allow Latin American countries to break out of this vicious circle.     

British economic growth: The paradox of the 1880s and the timing of the climacteric

Alternative measures of British gross domestic product show marked discrepancies before 1914. Bowley's wage income estimates appear partly responsible. A revised average wage series, which incorporates service-sector wages and attaches less weight to coal miners, and a modified measure of the wage-earning population provide the basis for new gross domestic product estimates. These series, summarized by least squares, show lower growth in the 1880s and faster growth after 1907. Growth between 1873 and 1896 appears significantly below trend, supporting the idea of British Great Depression. Faster growth after 1907 militates against an Edwardian climacteric.     

Banker preferences,interbank connections,and the enduring structure of the Federal Reserve System

Established by a three person committee in 1914, the structure of the Federal Reserve System has remained essentially unchanged ever since, despite criticism at the time and over ensuing decades. This paper examines the original selection of cities for Reserve Banks and branches, and placement of district boundaries. We show that each aspect of the Fed's structure reflected the preferences of national banks, including adjustments to district boundaries after 1914. Further, using newly-collected data on interbank connections, we find that banker preferences mirrored established correspondent relationships. The Federal Reserve was thus formed on top of the structure that it was largely meant to replace.     

Automation and the worldwide restructuring of the electronics industry: Strategic implications for developing countries

Governments in developing countries are placing a high priority on the development and expansion of an export-oriented electronics industry. Thus, the structural change and technological transformation currently being experienced throughout the world will have major implications for their success.Due to the oligopolistic nature of the internationalization process in this industry, the use of computerized and automation technologies in electronics manufacture is likely to penetrate into a very select group of Third World industrial growth poles in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. The extent and location of this penetration will be largely controlled by the OECD-based multinationals. Consequently, the expected positive developmental effects may be diminished and limited to those few growth poles. These new constraints must be understood by LDC governments in order for them to implement countervailing strategies.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXPORT SPECIALIZATION IN RESOURCE‐BASED PRODUCTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH

Given Latin America's general specialization in resource‐based products, this paper focuses on the question of whether or not a country specialized in resource‐based products can have high rates of export and economic growth. To examine this question, an attempt is made to develop and apply a new taxonomy to a sample of resource‐based products exported by Latin American countries to the United States. This taxonomy is based on the role played by prices in the mechanism through which countries compete in specific international product markets. Resource‐based products are then classified as homogeneous, differentiated, or highly differentiated goods. The paper argues that exports of countries specialized in differentiated or highly differentiated goods tend to be much more dynamic than of those specialized in homogeneous goods.     

基于灰色关联法与区位熵的区域产业结构与经济增长关系探究——以重庆市万州区为例

研究产业结构与经济增长的关系能够优化产业结构,为地区发展提供一定的机遇。通过阐述万州区产业结构与经济增长的现状及特点,运用区位熵、灰色关联法对1978-2013年万州区产业结构与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,研究表明:万州区产业结构的变化发展与全国整体水平的变化发展未完全保持一致,仅有2008年前符合产业发展的一般演进规律;第一产业中种植业与林业的发展具有较为显著的比较优势;第二产业是推动万州经济增长的主要动力,其五大特色产业的发展较为均衡;第三产业中的批发零售贸易业与住宿餐饮业具有显著的比较优势,存在较大的发展潜力。在此基础上,提出优化万州区产业结构的对策建议。     

Does China have an impact on foreign direct investment to Latin America?

We analyze empirically whether the emergence of China as a large recipient of FDI has affected the amount of FDI received by Latin American countries. Allowing for the structural break related to China's WTO accession, we found a significant negative impact of Chinese inward FDI on that of Mexico until 2001 and on that of Colombia after that date. The rest of Latin American countries do not seem to be affected by Chinese inward FDI. For the region as a whole, there is no significant Chinese effect on Latin America’s FDI.